COVID-19

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niemand
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by niemand »

Singapore’s Prime Minister addressing the nation re. the virus: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oNw1pyksKHo

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

It's been about two weeks, and so far we haven't seen an explosion of new cases outside of China. I'm starting to become hesitately hopeful that they're actually able to isolate the cases and reduce the spread. (Or its just spreading undetected...) If another place starts to have sustaining H2H spread, I'm guessing it will be HK, Singapore, or Japan.

WHO's biggest worry is it gets out and gets into a country with limited healthcare infrastructure. If that happens, it's basically guaranteed to spread everywhere else. :shock:

ertyu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by ertyu »

they just announced it spreads by arosol (you only need to breathe the same air as an infected person). keep hoping.

"a country with limited health care infrastructure" - like, say, India? Or all those countries that are not reporting any cases ("testing limitations") e.g in south america, africa, eastern europe.

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Sclass
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Sclass »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:34 am
It's been about two weeks, and so far we haven't seen an explosion of new cases outside of China. I'm starting to become hesitately hopeful that they're actually able to isolate the cases and reduce the spread. (Or its just spreading undetected...) If another place starts to have sustaining H2H spread, I'm guessing it will be HK, Singapore, or Japan.

WHO's biggest worry is it gets out and gets into a country with limited healthcare infrastructure. If that happens, it's basically guaranteed to spread everywhere else. :shock:
Right this is good info. It is reassuring to see that the cases in Southern California haven’t blown up into a h2h spread. Given the spread seen in China and the amount of traffic we get back and forth it is shocking how well it has been controlled. I’m not sure exactly what environmental differences helped things along there versus here. At the beginning it always starts with a single case. As far as “modern healthcare” goes the difference seems to be a belief in the germ theory of disease and detection.

I have another theory. It seems it’s wrong to come up with our own ideas and not quote from vetted news but here goes. Perhaps this thing isn’t very deadly while at the same time being very contagious. The current Chinese number of infections has been mathematically proven to be underestimated. Maybe it means there are millions infected now and a <1% fatality rate? I mean they can hide the infections by scaring people to stay home but it gets hard to hide the body bags...and the smell of death coming out of high rise apartments. Just a crazy thought. A hopeful thought.

We will learn more with every passing day.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:01 am
they just announced it spreads by arosol (you only need to breathe the same air as an infected person). keep hoping.
This is a simplification of what aerosol spread means, and the distinction is important. What it means is when you cough or sneeze, it creates a bunch of tiny aerosol droplets. These are particles of the virus mixed with the water in the air/your breath. When you inhale those aerosolized droplets, you can contract the disease.

This form of spread is in contrast with large droplet transmission (someone basically needs to cough in your face) and true airborne transmission. The range for aerosol spread (what we see in ncov, other coronaviruses, and the flu) is about 6 to 8 feet from an infected person. After that, gravity pulls the aerosol droplets to the ground.

True airborne transmission, like TB or measles, is where the pathogen can float in the air like dust particles. It notably does not need to be inside a tiny water droplet, so these particles can remain in the air much longer and travel much further. Measles can infect someone up to 100 feet away who just breathed the same air! :shock:

We also basically already knew this spread via aerosol particles because that's how other coronaviruses spread. What is important here, however, is it does not spread like TB/measles. Still concerning, but it's important to remember exactly how this virus spreads.

(This is also why N95 masks are effective for ncov but not TB/measles. All you have to do is filter the droplets and not the impossibly tiny virus particles)
Sclass wrote:I have another theory. It seems it’s wrong to come up with our own ideas and not quote from vetted news but here goes. Perhaps this thing isn’t very deadly while at the same time being very contagious. The current Chinese number of infections has been mathematically proven to be underestimated. Maybe it means there are millions infected now and a <1% fatality rate? I mean they can hide the infections by scaring people to stay home but it gets hard to hide the body bags...and the smell of death coming out of high rise apartments. Just a crazy thought. A hopeful thought.
Paradoxically this would actually be bad news because it means the virus is basically impossible to contain. The reason we were able to stop SARS is by identifying every single case and stopping the spread. If ncov causes mild illness and has ~1% fatality rate, it means that it will spread everywhere before we have any chance of stopping it. It could possibly even involve more fatalities because it infects more people. You actually saw this exact thing with H1N1 flu back in 2009. It wasn't very deadly, but being novel pandemic flu, it infected 10%-20% of the global population and killed 150,000-500,000 people. :shock:

Now luckily, the CDC is screening for communities that suddenly experience a larger than normal rate of pneumonia to detect cases that slipped by. If they can contain these communities when that happens, it might stop/slow the spread.

Even if we can't completely stop ncov, at least slowing it down will save lives and reduce suffering because it gives supply chains/hospitals time to handle cases properly. It also allows researchers time to develop therapeutics properly.

Obviously, things could still go terribly wrong. It is too early to truly tell if this is working. But the reason I am becoming very slightly optimistic is when we compare the cruise ship situation to what we've seen of ncov in the US. That damn cruise ship managed to get 70 people and counting ill. :? The doubling time for this virus is about 5 days, so if we imagine we've had 20 days since first contact on US soil, that's four doubling times. Let's imagine we start with 10 undetected cases. By now, that should mean we have 10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160 = 310 cases on the US. That's a high enough number that we would have noticed. They are screening patients who are critically ill with pneumonia now (at least that's what WHO/CDC recommends) in addition to people with contact with others from Wuhan.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

97% of all antibiotics used in the US come from China. Much of the raw material stock used in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals comes from China. Most generic drugs are made in India with Chinese raw materials. Those who need regular medications might consider stocking up. The second article has a partial list of drugs that might be in short supply.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence- ... ucts-china
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/43292 ... g-supplies

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Ego has a good point. I was also reading that this is a problem on the plague quarantined cruise ship too. Many of the passengers are dependent on regular medications, and getting refills to 2k+ people has been a logistical nightmare that's resulted in some people not having enough. Really underscores the risk you take in developing chronic conditions from poor lifestyle habits. :shock: Obviously not all conditions for which medication is required are avoidable, but it's certainly inspired me to take my lifestyle habits a bit more seriously. :lol:

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Oy vey......I typically try to bury my head in the sand when it comes to these highly hyped up global issues, but as someone who spent almost 2 years planning a round the world trip (set to begin in 4 weeks), it's got me thinking twice about visiting many of the places on our list. Sucks, but I thank you all for the resources and links being shared.

Hypothetically, if you were about to get on a plane to western Europe in early March, from the USA. Would you still go based on the current information available? I'm leaning hard toward "yes" myself, but completely scrapping the idea of the SE Asia portion of our trip, which was slated for end of Sept - March......unless things drastically improve.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by classical_Liberal »

@2B1S
I'll combine three recent threads together for you... Not only should you cancel your trip and spend all the money you would have for the trip on stockpiling medications, face masks, and airfilters. But you should also build a canoe and portage down to the amazon because the only way you'll ever survive to procreate is by joining a hunter/gatherer culture. Good luck. Before you go though, make sure you save 44X your spending, even though money will probably be irrelevant in a few years when civilization falls apart. Now, thanks to me, you're safe.

or you could just, HAVE A GREAT TRIP!

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Seppia »

@2b1s
In Italy we have 20 cases (60 million population), in Japan they have 100 cases (70 on the ship, so 30 cases really, 125 million population), it France another 20 cases (66 million population).

So while I would not take advantage of the amazing air France offers on flights to wuhan, and I am taking additional precautions while traveling (washing hands more often, trying not to touch my face) I will not let my life be too severely affected by this.
There is a small chance I may get infected and die, but I could also be ran over by a cab on my way to work.

Life involves risk, I don’t take unnecessary ones but I’m not going to stop living life in fear of something that, as of today, isn’t such a worldwide disaster

thrifty++
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by thrifty++ »

@2b1s - I would go but just stay in western Europe for a while to see how things go before venturing further. I cant imagine how its any different there. There are confirmed cases in USA and Canada anyway

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Esh they found 60 more cases on the cruise ship, bringing the total number of cases on that thing up to 130. If th cruise ship was a country, it's got the second highest amount of cases after China. :?

If I had a trip planned, I would still go, but I'd take precautions. Wash your hands and don't touch your face. Also be careful where you eat. They have a case of it spreading to multiple people during a hotpot dinner for example. And of course, monitor the situation and be prepared for changes if we get another outbreak.

Maybe this is inconsistent though because the incident has made me not consider going on any new trips in the first place. :lol:

bostonimproper
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bostonimproper »

I think we'll have a lot more information about the severity of this and treatment options by March. Which is to say, if it doesn't affect your ability to refund portions of the trip, I'd kick the can down the road a few weeks before making a decision.

George the original one
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by George the original one »

BBC.com has a summary of virus stats. I’d link the article, but I’m on my phone and can’t manage it (help i’ve fallen and can’t get up). Maps & charts.

bigato
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bigato »

Damn c_L, that was some Jason-level stuff right there, I laughed out loud here. So nice to have such a diverse sample of smart people here, thanks jacob.

Nomad
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Nomad »

Stopping flights to and from China has slowed things down but the spread within the country continues and I think it will leak into the countries that it has land borders with quite readily. This could be pandemic in a month.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

This is pretty long, but if any of you are interesting in seeing how policy makers/government leaders think about this stuff behind the scenes, the Center for Health Security (ran by John Hopkins) ran a tabletop exercise in 2018 with a bunch of folks from Washington to simulate a global pandemic. They made up a fictional disease called Claude X that spread like ncov but had a fatality rate of 10%. By the end of the simulation, the disease had killed 2.5% of the global population and 1/3 of congress, crashed the DOW by 60%, and bankrupt the entire US medical system to the point the government had to nationalize it.

You can watch the whole thing here: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

False positives and false negatives causing problems.

There are reports that China has revised the way they report positives including only those who swab test positive *and* show symptoms.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/ne ... ssion=true
A botched test result from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Sunday after initially being told by the CDC that they were in the clear
.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

Aspen Institute has a live talk about US preparation on Youtube right now with...

Anthony Fauci, MD, Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Ron Klain, JD, former White House Ebola Response Coordinator
Nancy Messonnier, MD, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

https://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/p ... -pandemic/

Takeaways so far...
>Nothing to worry about today but lots to worry about in the near future
>Public health needs money injection now
>Shortest time for US vaccine is 1 year from now.
>A few big biotech companies lost lots of money on developing emergency vaccines and are reluctant to jump in with this one

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:33 pm
snip
Heard of military tabletop exercises but have not heard of pandemic exercises. Definitely watching this when I can.

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