Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Today the 150000th test was performed.
4% of tested turn up positive and
2.5% of cases end up dieing.
Lockdown extended until atleast 30th April in my state.
Telangana extended until 2nd June. Other 2 states have also done the same.

@Peanut:

That would be great if it is true. Conversely, spreading like wildfire in nursing homes. My only thought would be that staff over age 45 should be given option to remain at home. Of course, I also think that should have been an option for the 60 year old woman who died after being exposed at her mission critical poultry processing plant job.

@J:

Although there is obviously good deal of overlap, it is important to not confuse health with fitness. In my neck of the woods, a 47 year old very fit professional dancer whose only known comorbidity was asthma died from this disease. Along with asthma, high blood pressure is often inherited and present from a young age, but not likely to cause somebody to die in their 40s or 50s this year.

7Wannabe5 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:16 am

Of course, I also think that should have been an option for the 60 year old woman who died after being exposed at her mission critical poultry processing plant job.

Exactly! It is completely illogical that those with high risk are still out working while those with virtually zero risk are locked in.

They are not doing a good job publicizing which risk factors are the most risky, which I believe is evil. Someone was able to piece together what little data trickled out.



It seems those with high blood pressure are especially vulnerable. They should not be forced to go to work. That said, some have suggested that it is not the high blood pressure per se but the ACE inhibitors that hypertensives take that is the cause, which is still being minimized by health officials.

Another version of the masks are useless>>>>masks are compulsory or you will be arrested.

@Ego: Do we have numbers for what percentage of the population in those countries has those conditions in the first place? We can’t really say whether those conditions are a factor or just prevalent in those groups. I can see the percentage of patients with diabetes is highest in the US, which makes sense. In both cases, it should probably be broken down further by age group, since many health conditions are age-related.

Ego wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:30 am

They are not doing a good job publicizing which risk factors are the most risky, which I believe is evil.

Well, technically, the biggest risk factors are all here ... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -risk.html The CDC revised that page rapidly during the beginning of the breakout until they settled on this "ipad" version. But yeah, it's certainly not information that's being shouted from the roof tops.

It conforms with the comorbidities posted earlier viewtopic.php?p=209578#p209578 ... I don't think these are a priori probabilties, so a country with a different health profile would show different outcomes. E.g. Middle Eastern countries have diabetes rates ~20% (twice that of the US) whereas the US has a high level of obesity and hypertension, for example.

Biggest change is specific inclusion of moderate asthma based on growing body of U.S. data. Dr. Birx also mentioned this in White House press conference a couple days ago.

New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... california

“The virus was freewheeling in our community and probably has been here for quite some time,” Dr. Jeff Smith, a physician who is the chief executive of Santa Clara County government, told county leaders in a recent briefing.

How long? A study out of Stanford suggests a dramatic viral surge in February.

But Smith on Friday said data collected by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, local health departments and others suggest it was “a lot longer than we first believed” — most likely since “back in December.”

“This wasn’t recognized because we were having a severe flu season,” Smith said in an interview. “Symptoms are very much like the flu. If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn’t really notice. You didn’t even go to the doctor. The doctor maybe didn’t even do it because they presumed it was the flu.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20054361v1

People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

The BBC website how links to info that may be of interest to current discussion.

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Att ... 505601089b

Its interesting in showing how the COVID19 patients differ from patients normally admitted to critical care units for non-COVID pneumonia. COVID patients are more likely to be male, ethnic minority and less likely to be seriously ill (more capable of independant living). Gives information on characteristics of COVID group such as BMI and comorbidities. (These COVID patients are less likely to have been seriously ill to start with than the 'normal' pneumonia intake.

US hospitalization rates over time by age.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

The lines can be multiplied by ~7-10% to compute the morbidity about ~one week into the future.

normal pneumonia: fuck you
covid: fuck british dudes in particular

jacob wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:39 pm

US hospitalization rates over time by age.

I like Fareed Zakaria

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

What is going on? Perhaps social distancing has worked better than was imagined. But still, there is a puzzle about the numbers. Predictions for hospitalization rates have also proved to be substantial overestimations. On March 30, University of Washington researchers projected that California would need 4,800 beds on April 3. In fact, the state needed 2,200. The same model projected that Louisiana would need 6,400; in fact, it used only 1,700. Even New York, the most stressed system in the country, used only 15,000 beds against a projection of 58,000. It’s best to plan for the worst, but this has meant that patients with other pressing illnesses might have been denied care — or not sought care — for no good reason.

@Ego - I read somewhere that the models predicting the 100-240k death toll was based on a 50% compliance rate for the federal guidelines. Many states have had tougher guidelines/orders and some people have imposed such on themselves earlier than ordered (we did), so perchance the compliance rate turned out to be higher than 50%. I've also read reports from other countries with doctors complaining that people are triaging themselves, i.e. not showing up at the hospitals when they should have because they're either afraid of getting the virus or didn't want to take up resources.

The article comments about the Chinese CFR, but didn't we agree on the source of the denominator confusion and how CFR is not IFR several dozen pages ago? I've been operating with the SK, Vo, Plague ship rates, where widespreading testing converged CFR asymptotically IFR (true death rate) to around 1ish%+ since very many pages ago. This was also what the original CDC estimate was very early on---hence the original prediction of 2 million dead Americans if nothing was done (327M population*1% IFR*60% herd immunity).

Add: Also, the expert quoted is maybe confusing Denmark with some other country?! Maybe the Faeroe Islands? In Denmark, initially, everybody who wanted a test could get one, drive-in style. That lasted a couple of days until they almost ran out of tests after finding ~500-1000 cases (I forget the exact timing). Then the policy changed to not testing anyone unless they were admitted to the hospital. Pursuing a strategy of "mitigation" rather than prevention, the official argument was that further testing was not necessary(!) Then the WHO complained and after much back and forth, they started testing again to get a better idea---this is also getting relevant now that the curve is broken and they're looking to open up again. I don't know if they do random testing, but the current Danish CFR is 4.3%, so they're not testing widely insofar the tests are random. Currently about 1.17% of the population has been tested with 8.8% coming back positive. In the US it's 0.79% with 20.0% positive.

I've also been surprised at the effectiveness of social distancing measures in the U.S. My interpretation was that the U.S. was trying much less hard than western Europe, but our measures seem to be much more effective. Did Europe just start with that many more cases than the U.S.? The U.K. was criticized for responding late in the game and now a nation of ~66 million is losing ~1,000/ day. Florida, also criticized for responding late, a state of ~20 million, is losing <50/ day. Did the U.S. just get lucky? Is it possible that density is playing a large roll?

To my knowledge, no "poor" country has been heavily hit yet. Presumably things will go very badly if/ when that happens. I hear Ecuador is pretty bad, but are there any other poor countries that look anywhere near as bad as Italy two weeks ago? I'm (pleasantly) surprised that shit hasn't hit the fan in a nation that 1) can't afford a shutdown and 2) has terrible health infrastructure.

According to the worldometer numbers, SK is closer to a 2% death rate now. Is there any explanation for that or any update on how things eventually panned out there, now that they have the disease under control and a large quantity of cases have been resolved?

black_son_of_gray wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:23 pm

San Francisco now has a decently useful data tracker up online:
https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/fjki-2fab

Confirms more male than female (~60/40), shows most COVID+ are <60 years old, gives you an idea of how much testing is happening (for a city of 880k, ~300 tests per day consistently over the last few weeks - only 0.03% per day! - even as 13% are positive...)

And yet, at the same time, hospital bed used for COVID+ patients seems to have plateaued at <90 for all hospitals across the city, which is wonderful news. I'll update again if/when the hospitalization count starts to go down, as that will probably be a bellwether for policies to start opening the city back up.

Jin+Guice wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:33 pm

To my knowledge, no "poor" country has been heavily hit yet. Presumably things will go very badly if/ when that happens. I hear Ecuador is pretty bad, but are there any other poor countries that look anywhere near as bad as Italy two weeks ago? I'm (pleasantly) surprised that shit hasn't hit the fan in a nation that 1) can't afford a shutdown and 2) has terrible health infrastructure.

I would say that there is globally an underestimate of deaths and infections. This will be significantly magnified in poor countries. In such countries there wont be sufficient testing or medical resources to assess people infected and dying. There are likely countless people dying in the slums of unknown causes and lots more whose deaths are reported as being for other more understood conditions like pneumonia. Once this is all over the poor countries will likely be assessed on an estimated basis.

Jin+Guice wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:33 pm

To my knowledge, no "poor" country has been heavily hit yet. Presumably things will go very badly if/ when that happens. I hear Ecuador is pretty bad, but are there any other poor countries that look anywhere near as bad as Italy two weeks ago? I'm (pleasantly) surprised that shit hasn't hit the fan in a nation that 1) can't afford a shutdown and 2) has terrible health infrastructure.

How about Iran?

@jacob, the frustrating thing is that public health experts have repeatedly made this same mistake in developing countries with deadly outbreaks and they never seem to learn the lesson about the importance of being honest with the public. If they are not honest the public will completely disbelieve them the next time. From a public health perspective this is the biggest flaw in the precautionary principle. The temptation to exaggerate is great. The next time - and there will be a next time - people will be incredibly reluctant to comply and politicians will be reluctant to listen to public health experts.

Epidemiologist and virologists cannot be the final word on these decisions. We need a council or group who can understand the nuance of modeling and balance economic costs/benefits with public health costs/benefits. It will have to be a group rather than an individual because they will need to make politically impossible decisions that balance lives lost tomorrow vs lives lost in two months or two years. Today we are stuck in a situation where those making decisions are focused on the next news cycle or the next election.

In the end, nothing changes the scientific fact that the only way to effect a cure for a virus is through herd immunity.

George the original one wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:33 pm

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Fri, Apr 10
- 1321 Positives
- 25853 Negatives
- 48 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 116 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 51 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 4 Hood River (Hood River)
- 44 Jackson (Medford)
- 17 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 24 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 34 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 49 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 246 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 317 Multnomah (Portland)
- 29 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 11 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 320 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 28 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 33 19 or younger
- 148 20-29
- 208 30-39
- 254 40-49
- 245 50-59
- 246 60- 69
- 146 70-79
- 91 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 14 20-29
- 20 30-39
- 48 40-49
- 51 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 64 70-79
- 46 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 338 Yes
- 924 No
- 109 Not provided

Sex
- 736 Female
- 629 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 296 Available adult ICU beds
- 2203 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 89 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 182 Available pediatric beds
- 797 Available ventilators
- 353 COVID-19 admissions
- 93 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 58 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

76 new cases. Added Coos County, leaving 6 mostly empty counties without cases (Baker, Gilliam, Harney, Jefferson, Lake, & Wheeler).

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sat, Apr 11
- 1447 Positives
- 27191 Negatives
- 51 Deaths

Cases by County
- 22 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 121 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Coos (Coquille)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 53 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 4 Hood River (Hood River)
- 44 Jackson (Medford)
- 17 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 25 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 35 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 51 Linn (Albany)
- 3 Malheur (Vale)
- 263 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 343 Multnomah (Portland)
- 30 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 14 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 4 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 9 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 330 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 30 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 35 19 or younger
- 159 20-29
- 216 30-39
- 269 40-49
- 258 50-59
- 261 60- 69
- 153 70-79
- 96 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 15 20-29
- 21 30-39
- 50 40-49
- 51 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 65 70-79
- 48 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 345 Yes
- 980 No
- 122 Not provided

Sex
- 780 Female
- 658 Male
- 9 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 295 Available adult ICU beds
- 2215 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 80 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 150 Available pediatric beds
- 768 Available ventilators
- 334 COVID-19 admissions
- 101 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 54 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

George the original one wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:54 pm

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Thu 9 Apr
- 9887 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 475 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 234 Benton (Prosser)
- 44 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 11 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 208 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 21 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 16 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 107 Franklin (Pasco)
- 100 Grant (Ephrata)
- 8 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 154 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4047 King (Seattle)
- 128 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 12 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 18 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 18 Mason (Shelton)
- 14 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 831 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 174 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1743 Snohomish (Everett)
- 245 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 80 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 18 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 247 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 447 Yakima (Yakima)
- 848 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 36% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

337 new cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Fri 10 Apr
- 10224 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 491 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 36 Adams (Ritzville)
- 5 Asotin (Asotin)
- 246 Benton (Prosser)
- 52 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 12 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 217 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 22 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 16 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 112 Franklin (Pasco)
- 111 Grant (Ephrata)
- 11 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 154 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4241 King (Seattle)
- 129 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 12 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 2 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 19 Mason (Shelton)
- 15 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 884 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 13 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 173 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 3 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1798 Snohomish (Everett)
- 247 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 20 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 252 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 496 Yakima (Yakima)
- 764 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 10 78 hospitals 642 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 37% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown