COVID-19

Health, Fitness, Insurance, ...
George the original one
Posts: 5318
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:59 pm
State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Mon 6 Apr
- 8682 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 394 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 29 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 179 Benton (Prosser)
- 32 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 8 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 161 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 75 Franklin (Pasco)
- 90 Grant (Ephrata)
- 6 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 143 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3460 King (Seattle)
- 118 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 16 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 10 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 644 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 11 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 165 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1596 Snohomish (Everett)
- 209 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 74 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 15 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 222 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 377 Yakima (Yakima)
- 915 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown
415 new cases. A month ago, there were only 136 cases reported in the entire state.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Tue 7 Apr
- 9097 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 421 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 190 Benton (Prosser)
- 35 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 10 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 186 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 12 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 76 Franklin (Pasco)
- 95 Grant (Ephrata)
- 7 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 149 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3668 King (Seattle)
- 117 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 15 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 12 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 759 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 169 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1651 Snohomish (Everett)
- 220 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 77 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 17 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 236 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 394 Yakima (Yakima)
- 838 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

Augustus
Posts: 1099
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 10:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

jacob wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:11 pm
Is there a good article on the 2021 timeline?

thrifty++
Posts: 1051
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Far out the curve really is flattening here now.

Only 29 new cases in NZ bringing the total confirmed and probable to 1,239.

Still only 1 death and 4 people in intensive care.

Bringing the death rate to 0.08%. And serious plus death rate to 0.48%

317 have recovered.

51,165 tests done (1.07% of population)

I wonder if NZ figures will be the litmus test of how deadly the virus really is.

Finally quarantine for all NZers entering the border kicks in at midnight tonight. No one goes home. Everyone goes into a managed facility for a minimum of 14 days. The is also no end date for these border controls so they could go on for a very long time.

With this significant drop and now the quarantine I am feeling more confident that this is under control in NZ.

The decision of whether to move out of the lockdown, from level 4 to level 3 alert will happen on 20 April. Im hoping we extend it for another two weeks after the 4 weeks is over though to be honest. Level 3 alert will still have a lot of restrictions at least in any event.

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 4809
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

In other news...

The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220302011

The jury is still way out on this one. It is another one of those meds that was approved for something else but had surprise antiviral properties and has a veterinary version. It protects dogs from heartworm and there is a version on ebay for horses. I know how much you guys enjoy that kind of stuff. For those with horses.

slowtraveler
Posts: 880
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@Ego
In reference to the medium post regarding simply delaying the peak, you put out loads of great articles that add dimensions of complexity. I appreciate it all. Keep it coming please.

bryan
Posts: 1066
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: COVID-19

Post by bryan »

jennypenny wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:37 pm
I assume once there's a vaccine they'll want everyone to take it, but if people feel they've been misled multiple times during the pandemic they might be hesitant to believe claims that a vaccine is safe and effective.
I mean.. yeah. I've never had a flu vaccine and I would be hesitant to get a rona vac (since it's being fast-tracked?).
jacob wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:11 pm
Maybe I've just stared at figures and models for long enough, but to me it was kinda obvious that the current models only cover the first wave :geek:
...
What the simple models show is how many people/ICU/beds/deaths there will be in wave one. Once that is passed by the end of this month/mid next month and politicians start talking about EXACTLY what they'll open up, the modellers will run their models again with the new parameters to compute how many will die in the second wave, and so on.
I think it's obvious to folks that look at models, graphs like that, but definitely not to folks only seeing the graphs on the nightly news or hearing about it from a friend, family member. Lots of folks, probably a majority, fully expecting to be coming out of stay-at-home orders fully, back to business, before the summer. Personally, I think it's bad form for the model-publishers to show any forecast farther than a few weeks after the (relative, and only) peak.

classical_Liberal
Posts: 1504
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:32 pm
Exactly. These people showed symptoms, were hospitalized, recovered, were tested for antibodies and showed none. The innate immune system which is our first line of defense does not produce antibodies.
As slightly above layperson on this topic, I'm still very cautious about reading too much into these types of reports and studies. While sometimes the intensity of immune responses to second round infections can be detrimental to outcome, it's just not common for the human immune system to ignore a recently defeated viral pathogen for reasons I outlined much earlier in this thread. Of course, anything is possible. Personally, I will continue to view these reports with healthy skepticism until there is some definitive evidence to think otherwise.
bryan wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:19 pm
Lots of folks, probably a majority, fully expecting to be coming out of stay-at-home orders fully, back to business, before the summer.
Right, but this is likely making them more compliant with this first round. Which follows with the greater good model we are so far following in public policy (ie the initial mask not helping BS, etc). I've read from multiple mainstream sources that the initial models the fed's have been using only assumed a 50% compliance rate with social distancing and state stay-at-home orders. However, the compliance rate has been much higher.

ZAFCorrection
Posts: 330
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by ZAFCorrection »

My first thought on the model curve was that it was weird they seemed to be cutting off what is at least a local maximum. But it made sense they had to stop at some consistent time period. However, it would have taken a very simple paragraph to explain why they did it rather than taking the usual expert approach of "because I said so."

That figure really does look kinda sketchy, at least from an experimentalist's perspective.

steveo73
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

@Ego - that modelling article was great.

@Jacob - the afford anything post was great as well.

I don't think anyone should be expecting a 2 month shut down. I think we need a shutdown until the virus goes completely or we have a vaccine.

I don't want to get infected either.

User avatar
Bankai
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

steveo73 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:01 am
I don't think anyone should be expecting a 2 month shut down. I think we need a shutdown until the virus goes completely or we have a vaccine.
This won't work. Or rather, it would cause more deaths than the virus. There are estimates that at 6.5% GDP loss we lose more lives than we save by locking everything down. This is due to average life expectancy dropping by around 3 months - similar to what's been observed after GFC. So you might ask, is it fair for everyone to live shorter (on average) so that x% can live longer?

What I think might happen is that the 'light' measures (ie. WFH) will stay for good (until vaccine) but the 'tough' measures (closing businesses and schools) will be lifted, gradually, and re-introduced once infection rate picks up again. Measures will likely be lifted in the reverse order they were introduced.

J_
Posts: 694
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:12 pm
Location: Netherlands/Austria

Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

Beginning of lock down after a successful lock up in Austria: Children back to school end of April, Universities stay this school-year on digital, barbers and commerce back 1 of May, tourist-life (slow) start allowed (expected) 15 of May. Open borders is still a point of discussion. Advise from government to Austrians: have your holiday in Austria.

So Austria thinks it will be ready for a second, slower? wave.

Ventilators are extra produced world wide, I expect there will enough of those end of summer in whole of Europe, also with safety clothing for medical staff.
The number of medical covid -trained staff I expect to rise too in autumn and further.

BeyondtheWrap
Posts: 586
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:38 pm
Location: NYC

Re: COVID-19

Post by BeyondtheWrap »

Bankai wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:19 am
There are estimates that at 6.5% GDP loss we lose more lives than we save by locking everything down. This is due to average life expectancy dropping by around 3 months - similar to what's been observed after GFC.
How does that work exactly seeing as how the GDP loss is temporary?

Are you saying that, during a year in which GDP is 6.5% less than the previous year, the average age at death is 3 months younger than the average age at death during the previous year?

ertyu
Posts: 756
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

BeyondtheWrap wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:38 am
How does that work exactly seeing as how the GDP loss is temporary?
Lives get displaced anyway. People get fired and never rehired, graduates enter an economy where the only jobs are retail hell you can never get out of and drown forever in debt because when the crisis ends it's the new grads and not them that are hired into the newly opened positions.

Older employees let go during downsizing don't get rehired at their previous salaries either.

Some of the unemployed may get depressed and resort to booze or just bad eating/low activity resulting in long-term health damage

In the states and in countries with health care access being tied to one's job, unemployment may mean reduced ability to access health care

It's just shit whichever way you slice it

7Wannabe5
Posts: 5868
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I think re-opening schools is a huge mistake. There is some evidence that students being on summer vacation is the primary reason for variety of flus dying down in summer. Think about how impossible it would be to maintain social distancing in a school environment vs. an adult workplace. There is no way I am going to return to teaching until there is a vaccine. In fact, based on what I have been reading about other emerging viruses, I am considering it to be a high risk occupation moving forward.

Beyond the very good points made by Jacob, another set of reasons why the deaths vs damage to economy dichotomy is false is that the economy is dependent upon growth and growth itself* is contributory to the emergence of these viruses. Therefore, the discussion shouldn’t be limited to combating just this virus.

*Most striking example of this I read about being the fact that the Zika virus was transmitted to the continent of South America by one human attending a sports canoeing tournament. Global climate change is extending the range of many species of mosquitoes and some of these viruses are capable of jumping from humans to different species of mosquitoes to different groups of humans.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 12247
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:47 am
I think re-opening schools is a huge mistake. There is some evidence that students being on summer vacation is the primary reason for variety of flus dying down in summer. Think about how impossible it would be to maintain social distancing in a school environment vs. an adult workplace.
The unstated reason towards opening schools first is to get the most hardy (children) infected accepting the collateral damage (teachers, parents, and possibly grandparents living under the same roof). This is the least-worst compromise of lowering R0 vs increasing deaths while allowing some form of economic activity. Alternatively, we can all stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found. Imagine a curve with deaths on the y-axis and R0 on the x-axis. The goal is to get R0 to converge towards <1 (at which point the epidemic will stop) while minimizing the integral of the curve.

Augustus
Posts: 1099
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 10:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

If this pandemic goes to 2021, are forumites planning to self isolate for an entire year or more? Only leaving the house once a month other than sanity walks?

7Wannabe5
Posts: 5868
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@jacob:

I think the collateral damage will be too huge for it to make good sense. Schools are the hub of a great deal of social activity in most communities. For instance, it has been my experience that within just a few weeks of part-time substitute teaching in a new district I will start running into students and parents in other places. All it would take is a week for the virus to jump from kids in schools to elderly people at church or in line at the pharmacy.

@Augustus:

My current plan is to self-isolate until vaccine or extremely good therapeutic. This is because my risk x expected lifespan = 18 months and I don’t mind devoting a year to almost nothing but reading marathon. The only decision I am still debating is whether or not I will allow interaction with boyfriend as only vector if/when he must return to workplace. He is naturally hyper-cautious, so might be okay.
Last edited by 7Wannabe5 on Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 987
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:20 am
Location: Earth

Re: COVID-19

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Augustus wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:17 am
If this pandemic goes to 2021, are forumites planning to self isolate for an entire year or more? Only leaving the house once a month other than sanity walks?
Sort of. My wife and I plan on rehabing an old fruit orchard/3 season house that my grandfather built in the 70's. Going to get our hands dirty and learn how to garden and grow some of our food. It's 30 minutes to city of 250k by bike.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 12247
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Sure, I can/will do that until 2021 or 2031 including cancelling walks and having groceries delivered.

In practice I aim to do 1-2 levels better than the official recommendation until morbidity is down to around flu or murder levels and hospitals report all clear again. Mind you, for me, the "sacrifice" is pretty minimal, so it's mentally easy to take this position. All the things most people enjoy like parties, going out, meeting(s), restaurants, watching sportsballs, concerts, ... are all far beyond the bottom of my enjoy-list. Conversely, most of the things I enjoy like research, HIIT, reading, making stuff, ... can be done w/o going outside the walls.

PS: Maybe some mutual introvert--extrovert understanding will finally obtain from this. Come thanksgiving or mandatory office party: "Remember how miserable you felt at home during the lockdown because it wasn't your scene? That's how I feel right now."

User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 6461
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: COVID-19

Post by jennypenny »

Augustus wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:17 am
are forumites planning to self isolate for an entire year or more?
Yup, we'll lock down for as long as it takes. It will be hard, even for an introvert (two of my kids are elsewhere) but no system is more mission critical than health.

I'm tempted to paint the inside of the house to look like a spaceship and pretend we're all on our way to Mars. :P

Post Reply