COVID-19

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Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

I was listening to an interview with a highly credentialized scientist on the matter. One of the first people to handle an AIDS patient. Was honest in that his expertise in this corona is three months old. His macro picture was concerning. Essentially, this has been a Northern Hemisphere event. It's inevitable entry into the Southern Hemisphere (Spring/Summer) will be cataclysmic due to fragile infrastructure. It will then recirculate to the North (Fall/Winter).

ertyu
Posts: 1449
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

The only silver lining here would be if the temporary pause over the summer lets hospitals and gvts catch up on preparedness. Shit's not looking good, though - someone elsewhere on the internet was talking about hospital stocks tanking because of corona patients who are low margin displacing patients with more lucrative diseases to treat. Hospital mgt thus incentivised to skimp on ppe and not purchase equipment that will not be required past the duration of the epidemic.

Seppia
Posts: 1484
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:03 pm
Hospital mgt thus incentivised to skimp on ppe and not purchase equipment that will not be required past the duration of the epidemic.
Another great side effect of a privatized healthcare system

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:23 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Sat, Mar 28
- 479 Positives
- 9693 Negatives
- 13 Deaths

Cases by County
- 8 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 36 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 20 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 8 Jackson (Medford)
- 5 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 32 Linn (Albany)
- 94 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 81 Multnomah (Portland)
- 11 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 4 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 140 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 13 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 10 19 or younger
- 39 20-29
- 60 30-39
- 95 40-49
- 91 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 49 70-79
- 42 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 5 30-39
- 21 40-49
- 16 50-59
- 33 60- 69
- 23 70-79
- 16 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 117 Yes
- 266 No
- 96 Not provided

Sex
- 260 Male
- 214 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 283 Available adult ICU beds
- 2099 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 189 Available pediatric beds
- 68 Available pediatric ICU beds
- 746 Available ventilators
- 107 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
69 new cases. Bit of a surge in Jackson County (Medford).

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sun, Mar 29
- 548 Positives
- 10878 Negatives
- 13 Deaths

Cases by County
- 8 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 39 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 23 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 19 Jackson (Medford)
- 6 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 4 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 10 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 36 Linn (Albany)
- 109 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 91 Multnomah (Portland)
- 13 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 4 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 3 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 154 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 13 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 10 19 or younger
- 49 20-29
- 70 30-39
- 103 40-49
- 109 50-59
- 101 60- 69
- 59 70-79
- 45 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 4 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 25 40-49
- 17 50-59
- 34 60- 69
- 25 70-79
- 18 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 129 Yes
- 316 No
- 103 Not provided

Sex
- 306 Female
- 236 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 285 Available adult ICU beds
- 2010 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 193 Available pediatric beds
- 66 Available pediatric ICU beds
- 767 Available ventilators
- 142 COVID-19 admissions
- 37 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

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Ego
Posts: 4918
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:06 pm
Another great side effect of a privatized healthcare system
Just spoke with a nurse friend who is at a hospital with 20 Covid positives. He in oncology and they are still treating regular oncology patients. They have not yet shifted them to a temporary facility.

He has been contacted by several headhunters offering $5500 per week plus housing to relocate to Seattle.

thrifty++
Posts: 1114
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Is anyone on here in New Caledonia? I feel like that is the place I would most want to be right now. Provided borders are closed to France. Are they? It looks barely unaffected by covid19. And it doesn't ever get cold there which will be nice with southern hemisphere winter on its way. How are things in New Caledonia now?

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Can anyone explain the logic of the UK lockdown leaving dry cleaners open?!?

Also, I didn't pay enough attention to Australian states going to stage 2. Did they all do it at once and when? Australia is definitely an interesting case because of the extreme population distribution.

chenda
Posts: 1532
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

George the original one wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:54 pm
Can anyone explain the logic of the UK lockdown leaving dry cleaners open?!?
I assume its considered neccessary to sterilise towels and clothes and things, and the premises I think fall under the same use class as laundrettes.

BWND
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:08 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by BWND »

I'd imagine Chenda is correct. There will be lots of people that perhaps don't even have a washing machine. I'm thinking about big share houses and the like. In the UK, dry cleaners and laundrettes are essentially the same thing. You don't see too many of those laundrette shops with a pile of coin operated washer driers.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 6647
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

In today’s White House press conference, Dr. Birks stated that CDC independent analysis of incoming U.S. data was very much in alignment with the IHME projections Jacob linked above.

So relieved the U.S. will be moving forward based on this model!

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:07 pm
So relieved the U.S. will be moving forward based on this model!
Relieved, but look at how huge the uncertainty cloud is when you look ahead more than two weeks! I mean, for Oregon at the peak, they're estimating we'll need from 65 to 3,000+ beds.

thrifty++
Posts: 1114
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

76 new cases in NZ leading to 589 total probable and confirmed cases.

Average of 1,728 tests per day being done.

12 in hospital expecting to be released soon - but still only one person in serious/critical condition.

3 people have been arrested for breaching lock down rules.

So that's a fatality rate of 0.17% and a serious/critical rate of 0.34%. Hopefully things continue this way.

There was a group of 60 backpackers at a party that the police attended in Queenstown. Really ticks me off. They should all be put into quarantine and deported.

bostonimproper
Posts: 254
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Devastating effect of misinformation: hundreds die in Iran from drinking methanol, trying to prevent coronavirus.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1688
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

Novartis CEO says Malaria drug is biggest hope against coronavirus

"Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus," Narasimhan told the newspaper.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novartis ... 52054.html

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2052
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:21 pm
He has been contacted by several headhunters offering $5500 per week plus housing to relocate to Seattle.
Also, thats net pay. Nurse travelverse for ICU has 5K weekly net contracts in many places at this point. Temp lifting of license restrictions cuts down on the BS/waste of time bureaucratic nonsense. The only time I've seen contracts paying this much have been very temporary union strike busting gigs.

CS
Posts: 644
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:24 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

That is definitely war wages. I think oncology is going to take a bit hit over the next 12-18 months unless they can get some mandatory testing in place - it is by definition a department of high risk people.

thrifty++
Posts: 1114
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

I keep hearing reports from everywhere about insufficient medical equipment to deal with this pandemic. This seems to be a big part of the problem. I noticed that lots of countries are rejecting equipment from China due to insufficient standard. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/co ... spartanntp

Im wondering where more equipment of decent quality is going to come from when so many places seem to be reporting supply problems. Im wondering what countries manufacture large quantities of relevant equipment of decent quality. I suspect maybe Germany might be one place and that might be part of why they are managing it so well with such low fatality rates.

IlliniDave
Posts: 3069
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

thrifty++ wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:34 am
Im wondering where more equipment of decent quality is going to come from when so many places seem to be reporting supply problems. Im wondering what countries manufacture large quantities of relevant equipment of decent quality. I suspect maybe Germany might be one place and that might be part of why they are managing it so well with such low fatality rates.
In the future we're probably headed to a system with a lot more built-in redundancy. Lots of countries will cultivate or expand the ability to produce basic medical supplies themselves. So in the future I think there will be numerous choices.

I'm not sure what to make of the issues regarding quality/efficacy of Chinese-made stuff reported recently. Maybe it's simply the pains of restarting production. Could be PPE is being scrutinized more and the quality of the Chinese-made stuff is consistent with what they were doing before covid-19.

ertyu
Posts: 1449
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

IlliniDave wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:26 am
I'm not sure what to make of the issues regarding quality/efficacy of Chinese-made stuff reported recently.
This is a combination of two things. One, a lot of stuff was manufactured fast, and had issues. Two, there are crooks, and there's a language barrier. A sentiment I've heard on the internet, by Chinese people: "well, if you buy from unlicensed companies, what do you expect??' Now, I don't know what licensing this is, but it seems to me that some cost-cutting western dumbass went for the cheapest thing without doing any dd on the supplier and then blamed it on "the chinese" when the supplier never claimed to have whatever license this was in the first place -- but then the westerner didn't ask for it either. Internally, the chinese gvt also had an issue with fake masks and supplies, tons of which were confiscated and destroyed + people prosecuted, but I guess the sociopathic crooks who were not above trying to sell it to their own medical professionals and people were also not above trying to peddle some of it abroad.

chenda
Posts: 1532
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

Might be a stupid question but why is it proving so difficult to quickly manufacture things like ventilators ? Too much outsourcing, fragmented supply lines, lack of in house expertise ? I would have thought companies like Boeing or Airbus must have enough analogous expertise to manufacture this kind of thing.

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