COVID-19

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Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:39 pm
...I think the states to watch are the ones who do not have a "stay at home" order.
Texas is a big state. The major metropolitan areas like Houston, Dallas-Ft.Worth, Austin, and San Antonio have all issued local stay-at-home orders already, while other more remote cities with minimal or no cases have not needed to yet. While I agree with your premise, IMO only looking at state-wide orders doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@thrifty++: The U.S. is responding in a highly regional manner. IIRC iDave lives in Alabama. Despite the fact that the southwestern edge of Alabama is only a little bit over 100 miles from where I'm sitting right now in New Orleans, they appear to be more than a week behind us in both cases and response (and that's assuming you're in a city, if you're not, than you're further "behind"). In a twisted way, it's sort of amazing to watch one state/ city refuse to learn from another nearby state/ city. Put another way, I have noticed a high degree of "that won't happen here" syndrome repeating over and over again throughout the country with lag times of a few days to a few weeks depending on the region. I guess that's just the kind of maverick mentality it takes to create something as culturally significant as the Cowboy Burger.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

The ones who survived the holocaust were those who moved fast (and were lucky enough to find a way). They didn't wait. They ignored those who said they were overreacting.

I try to never forget that.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@J+G - It's "interesting" (again in the morbid way) to compare the spread of COVID to the way the black death spread in Europe in 1346+ and how similar it is. The "port cities" that see a lot of international connections get it first. That's Seattle for Asia and NYC for Europe. The Black Plague spread with the cargo along the coast from port city to port city and then diffusing inland from there.

COVID spreads via people (rather than cargo) and thus the next epicenters come from areas that see a lot of travel to and from the initial cities. That's Chicago, SF, LA for the business travelers and New Orleans (and Florida) for the tourists. (In Europe it was the ski resorts that acted as incubators.)

Next and now we begin to see the spread along the interstates from people taking it from the big cities to the nearest big city, e.g. from NYC to Albany, NY and so forth.

Many in the hinterland, whether it's say upstate New York or flyover country, definitely operate under a "it can't happen here" down to the point of believing it's an outright hoax or that it can be explained away as a "big city problem" ("Perhaps their health care politics are failing? Someone should look into that.")

But it's coming slowly along the freeways and highways as some grandparent drives 200 miles across state to visit their grandchild; maybe infects a gas station attendant along the way, ... eventually getting everywhere.---I have not heard of any city blockading all entry and exit roads yet. During the Black Death, the cities that did that actually fared pretty well.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Tyler9000 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:54 pm
While I agree with your premise, IMO only looking at state-wide orders doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.
Agreed, but state-level is what we can all easily watch.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

Just a quick thought experiment, not based on actual evidence...

Michigan has about 10 million people.
If 70% contract the virus, then 7 million will have the virus.
If 2% die after contracting the virus, then 140,000 will die.
Yesterday there were 32 deaths.
If deaths double every day, then in about 11 days almost 100,000 will have died.

I don't think the doubling every day is correct, it is probably lower than that. If the increase were 1.5 every day, then in about 20 days about 100,000 will have died.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@sky:

Doubling rate is theoretically every 3 or 4 days, but right now in Michigan it looks like less than every 2 days. Hopefully, we will end up with less than 1000 dead by Easter. Depends a good deal on whether shutting down schools the week before the lock down made a difference in transmission rate. Based on anecdotal reports of crowded stores and multi-participant play dates, I am somewhat pessimistic.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

As of yesterday, the daily increase rate in Michigan deaths due to COVID-19 is 1.47 per day (or 147%). That is starting with the first death on March 18, to 32 deaths on March 27.

If this rate continues, we will experience about 25,000 deaths cumulative by April 12.

Hopefully isolation will reduce the increase rate.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20041079v1
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care.
With no other interventions, possible duration 19 months.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:55 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Thur, Mar 26
- 316 Positives
- 6953 Negatives
- 11 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 15 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 7 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 26 Linn (Albany)
- 57 Marion (Salem)
- 45 Multnomah (Portland)
- 6 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 104 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 19 20-29
- 39 30-39
- 63 40-49
- 52 50-59
- 70 60- 69
- 40 70-79
- 27 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 4 30-39
- 14 40-49
- 12 50-59
- 28 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 8 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 90 Yes
- 170 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 170 Male
- 144 Male
- 2 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 362 Available ICU beds
- 2193 Available non-ICU beds
- 684 Available ventilators
Escalating rapidly [edit: state official says expanded testing of mild cases is responsible]. Spring break & good weather last weekend may or may not have contributed to 98 new cases today. Added Columbia and Morrow counties.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Fri, Mar 27
- 414 Positives
- 8510 Negatives
- 12 Deaths

Cases by County
- 5 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 31 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 18 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 6 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 28 Linn (Albany)
- 83 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 67 Multnomah (Portland)
- 10 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 3 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 122 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 11 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 9 19 or younger
- 32 20-29
- 48 30-39
- 81 40-49
- 78 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 47 70-79
- 35 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 15 50-59
- 29 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 11 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 102 Yes
- 218 No
- 94 Not provided

Sex
- 222 Male
- 187 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 360 Available ICU beds
- 2294 Available non-ICU beds
- 715 Available ventilators
- 91 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
Last edited by George the original one on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

thrifty++ wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:57 pm
My god I can't believe that your work has not taken steps to arrange for staff to work from home. That is completely negligent. Personally I would take charge myself and proceed to work from home.
I don't think the homeowner's association would let me get away with operating a laboratory that large, but it would be fun.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.
I tend to agree with this. If such a high percentage of population has already been exposed, why are we getting so many negative PCR tests on symptomatic people, as they are the only ones being tested. In my state it's something like 97% negative. You would think if such a high percentage of population is exposed and asymptomatic we would be capturing that in the PCR tests to at least some degree. IOW, they are symptomatic due to a cold or bacterial pneumonia, but also have COVID.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:39 pm
As of yesterday, in the top half of the list, they are:
  • Florida - bars, nightclubs closed Mar 17, state parks closed Mar 22
  • Pennsylvania - 7 counties "stay at home" Mar 23
  • Texas
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • North Carolina - bars, nightclubs closed
  • Maryland
  • Alabama
  • Arizona
  • Missouri - St. Louis & Kansas City "stay at home" Mar 23 & Mar 24 respectively
  • Mississippi
  • Virginia
Someone made a web tool to look at the differences between states. You can adjust for population & patient zero. Also look at total cases, new cases, total deaths, or new deaths. Limit is 5 states at a time.

https://andygriff.in/blog/article/coronavirus-by-state

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:12 pm
State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Thu, 26 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 43173 Negatives
- 147 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Adams (Ritzville)
- 19 Benton (Prosser)
- 10 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 48 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 33 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 64 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1577 King (Seattle)
- 33 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 5 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 186 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 78 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 778 Snohomish (Everett)
- 67 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 24 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 86 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 3 Whitman (Colfax)
- 61 Yakima (Yakima)
- 69 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
493 new cases. Added Skamania County (Stevenson).

State of Washington published count as of 3:30p Fri 27 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 49015 Negatives
- 175 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 5 Adams (Ritzville)
- 42 Benton (Prosser)
- 13 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 76 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 12 Franklin (Pasco)
- 42 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 79 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1760 King (Seattle)
- 42 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 7 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 2 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 231 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 3 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 91 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 913 Snohomish (Everett)
- 86 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Stevens (Colville)
- 27 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 92 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Whitman (Colfax)
- 72 Yakima (Yakima)
- 45 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 10% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $25,000 in Alaska and $5,000 in Hawaii and one year in prison.

Edited: fine amounts
Last edited by theanimal on Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:03 pm
Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $10,000 and one year in prison.
Now that's a meaningful step!

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:49 pm
IOW, they are symptomatic due to a cold or bacterial pneumonia, but also have COVID.
I was wondering about that. Is it possible that covid-19 can't establish in the presence of another infection? Otherwise it would seem that it hasn't spread nearly as much as I speculated. I guess we really won't know until they start casting a wider net with testing programs.

Our governor here ratcheted things up a notch. Basically all "nonessential" businesses are ordered closed (no non-employees permitted on premises) starting tomorrow including a lot of retail-type businesses and barbershops and those sorts of personal care places. I'm a month out from my last haircut and will be looking scruffy here pretty soon. Gatherings of more than 10 prohibited. Still no shelter-in-place.
Last edited by IlliniDave on Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:23 pm
Agreed, but state-level is what we can all easily watch.
This site tracks local responses that differ or go beyond state measures https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:03 pm
Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $25,000 in Alaska and $5,000 in Hawaii and one year in prison.

Edited: fine amounts
Does that include US persons? It could get messy if implemented among the contiguous 48.

I thought I saw where China was having some clashes relating to people moving between provinces.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@iDave-

Yes. Both states require quarantine regardless of citizenship or residency. Even if you reside in AK or HI you must undergo quarantine.

It's definitely easier to implement due to the physical isolation of both of those states and something I wish was implemented sooner. However, it does seem like something that may happen going forward elsewhere as other states/cities watch their neighbors do nothing in terms of prevention and look to avoid ill consequences later on. Perhaps a system of checkpoints with the national guard?

I'm not sure how it would work and I don't expect reactions would be smooth. Even today in China there were protests/riots in Hubei province after travel restrictions were lifted. There's nothing clean about it.

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