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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:49 am
by Jean
Aren't you all worried about the Fed going to own about everything?

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:45 am
by slowtraveler
It appears my assumptions about a 3% infection rate were far too conservative. Every single state is showing above that in the tests. 5-20% infection rates among the tested. Lower mortality than expected is the obvious conclusion. Hope we don't shoot ourselves in the head to cure a headache by destroying the economy and future generations.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... tates.html

https://www.joshuakennon.com/what-price ... -covid-19/

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:03 am
by Jason
Ironically, the worse fears about Trump - autocratic tendencies - have turned in the opposite direction. Instead of leveraging this event into his "make the trains run on time" opportunity, he has been reluctant to impose federal oversight (just yesterday he invoked Defense Production Act). Complaints from his detractors is that he is not doing enough. Crises always involve chaos vs. control (security) dichotomies and generally speaking, people favor security i.e. Patriot Act > Bill of Rights at these times. From an economic standpoint, US is always Federal. But as far as all other policy is concerned, Trump is siding on state's rights. Obviously politics are involved but his reaction to this is about as far from the "strong man" narrative as one can get.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:32 am
by 7Wannabe5
@slowtraveler:

The math in that piece by Joshua Kennan is abominable. For instance, he simultaneously claims that almost all who die will be within a few years of previously expected death absent Covid, yet he also claims that only 75/1000 people over the age of 80 will die.

I actually don’t disagree entirely with his premise that hard-eyed calculations will have to be made, heck I even made such a calculation for myself about quitting my job early vs. asthma/age 55 risk etc, but to try to sell such an agenda as general policy with the use of misleading data and math solidly qualifies him for inclusion in the intelligent/evil quadrant in my book.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 am
by George the original one
Jason wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:03 am
Obviously politics are involved but his reaction to this is about as far from the "strong man" narrative as one can get.
Except that little bit about congressional oversight of the relief funds. And the whole pettiness of not supporting all governors as if the people in those states don't matter.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:36 am
by slowtraveler
@7Wannabe5

The math is correct for the assumptions made: a 15% mortality rate and a 50% infection rate.

1000 people infected *15% mortality rate * 50% infection rate = 75 deaths

To confirm in a calculator:
1000*.15*.5=75

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:54 am
by Jason
George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 am
Except that little bit about congressional oversight of the relief funds. And the whole pettiness of not supporting all governors as if the people in those states don't matter.
Fighting congress on implementation of policy is part and parcel of US government. FDR attempted to stack the Supreme Court to implement his New Deal policies. The fact that Trump is not supporting governors is far different than imposing his will on those governors. People have noted the irony of Trump declaring himself a "wartime" President because of his reluctance to mobilize the country based upon Executive decrees. Whether you agree with what he is doing is besides the point. One thing he is not doing is using the pandemic to increase his executive power. Call it unethical, call it incompetence, call it political, call it idealogical. One thing it is not is autocratic.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:03 pm
by Jin+Guice
The Kennon piece is bad because he doesn't state his assumptions. He says the "worst case scenario" is 2.2 million Americans die ~0.66%. Based on Jacob's estimates, if the death rate with access to ventilators is 1.2% and 60% of people get it then 0.72% of Americans die. So, no allowance for running out of ventilators, which under jacob's model, doubles the death rate, no allowance for people who die because of unavailable hospital beds and no discussion of the economic cost of all this health care, no allowance for the potentially destabilizing effects of healthcare systems collapse in the United States and abroad, no mention of the potentially increased death tolls in poorer nations. No accounting for the massive uncertainty that still surrounds the actual rate of anything with this disease. This isn't his "college try at what might happen scenario," this is his worst case scenario!

<sarcasm> >10% of diagnosed Italian cases have died and many are still ill. Based on this I conservatively project that 20% of all Italian cases will die and thus 20% of all Americans or .2*330,000,000 = 66,000,000 Americans will die. I dub this my "best case scenario" and present it as Fact #1. I used math so it has to be true. </sarcasm>

His worst case for the economy is complete economic collapse into an authoritarian dictatorship. Not bad for a worst case scenario, certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but still completely invented by the author. Also, where's the math dawg?

I don't disagree with him that we are currently facing a tough trade-off between the economy combatting the virus and that tough decision need to be made. I don't disagree with him that we are currently doing a poor job making those decisions. Assigning seemingly certain number values to invented scenarios, labeling those scenarios as facts and then making projections based on those scenarios is fucking fraud. It's goal post setting and it doesn't help clarify the discussion or aid in decision making.

Edit: Added sarcasm tags after terrifying at least one person.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:48 pm
by Ego
Jin+Guice wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:03 pm
He says the "worst case scenario" is 2.2 million Americans die ~0.66%.
Hum. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that is the same worst case scenario number that appeared in the Imperial College report that caused the US and UK to lockdown. That report has since been revised down significantly.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 pm
by jacob
@Ego - Apologies for hammering this [very important point], but the downward revision is because action was subsequently taken relative to the underlying "do nothing" assumptions of the first model (with the 2.2M estimate). This lead to a new and much lower death toll in the second model---thus indicating that the adopted measures would be effective. If those measures are lifted in order to return to BAU, the first model will hold again.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:55 pm
by Jin+Guice
@Ego: O.k. I didn't know that. Looks like I need to take my rage posting down a notch because this is not the grotesque abuse of mathematification that I thought it was.

From the Imperial College report: "The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the
second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times
greater than the maximum supply in both countries.
"

Whoops, looks like the Imperial College acknowledges that their own "worst case scenario" doesn't account for something they predict to happen. Assuming I have the right paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf), their central point is not to present a worst case scenario, but to outline strategies that would not overwhelm ICU capacity in the U.S. and U.K. I admit that I thought Kennon made up the numbers based on his own model without stating assumptions, which is why I was so mad. He instead abuses other peoples numbers, the advantage here is that assumptions can be examined.

The point of Kennon's article is that we need to look at the trade off between the economic costs and loss of life. These are big decisions and brashley making comparisons based on incorrect assumptions and incomplete models is not doing anyone any favors nor does it help us examine trade offs.


@Augustus: Thanks for the compliment, but don't confuse the fact that I work in a hospital with me having actual medical training. I was trained solely for my job and honestly being an audio technician for years prepared me more for my specific job than any of the shallow medical knowledge I acquired during "training." My job has nothing to do with the part of medicine that's important for this pandemic. I am actually out of work because surgeries are largely cancelled and my skills are non-transferable. Even trained medical professionals such as doctors or nurses, who have a depth of general medical knowledge (which again, I do not), are still highly specialized. As usual, the crowd here is different and I think the medical professionals here have made conservative and accurate statements where they acknowledge their level of expertise and how it relates to this issue.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:58 pm
by J_
Today, 28 of March, Austria, little mountain village, friends of me on walking distance, a family of four, parents about 40+ children 13 and 11y. Mother became infected, became explicit ill on 20 of March, later all tested positive. Before: one parent healthy, other parent healthy but with a long standing muscle illness can hardly walk, children healthy. All isolated in their own home. Neighbors delivering groceries. First days, woman felt very fatigued, difficulty breathing, hardly appetite, man quickly tired. Now slightly improving health. I brought some things to them today (left it on their doorstep) and spoke from 7 yards with the children and mother. Children are hardly noticing it (only their confiness) parents feel slowly return of their strength. Not heard of any medicine.
For me it meant a relief, not only that my friends will overcome, but a real proof that healthy, fit people can withstand this virus.
A thing I like to share with you all.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:23 pm
by George the original one
George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:27 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Fri, Mar 27
- 414 Positives
- 8510 Negatives
- 12 Deaths

Cases by County
- 5 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 31 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 18 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 6 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 28 Linn (Albany)
- 83 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 67 Multnomah (Portland)
- 10 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 3 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 122 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 11 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 9 19 or younger
- 32 20-29
- 48 30-39
- 81 40-49
- 78 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 47 70-79
- 35 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 15 50-59
- 29 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 11 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 102 Yes
- 218 No
- 94 Not provided

Sex
- 222 Male
- 187 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 360 Available ICU beds
- 2294 Available non-ICU beds
- 715 Available ventilators
- 91 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
65 new cases including a third case in my county. A change in how available beds are reported, now separating adult-size from child-size.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Sat, Mar 28
- 479 Positives
- 9693 Negatives
- 13 Deaths

Cases by County
- 8 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 36 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 20 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 8 Jackson (Medford)
- 5 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 32 Linn (Albany)
- 94 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 81 Multnomah (Portland)
- 11 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 4 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 140 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 13 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 10 19 or younger
- 39 20-29
- 60 30-39
- 95 40-49
- 91 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 49 70-79
- 42 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 5 30-39
- 21 40-49
- 16 50-59
- 33 60- 69
- 23 70-79
- 16 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 117 Yes
- 266 No
- 96 Not provided

Sex
- 260 Male
- 214 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 283 Available adult ICU beds
- 2099 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 189 Available pediatric beds
- 68 Available pediatric ICU beds
- 746 Available ventilators
- 107 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:44 pm
by 7Wannabe5
@slowtraveler:

I wasn’t doubting Kennon’s ability to perform calculations. I was attempting to point out his handwaving regarding life expectancy. In the U.S. the annual death rate for men does not hit 15% until age 89.

Imagine you are 89 and you attend a reunion of the 100 remaining members of your Korean conflict division. Prior to Covid you would expect only 85 in attendance next year. The assumption that 50% penetration of Covid will just pick off 7 or 8 of the 15 guys who would have died anyways implies that even given Covid there will still be expectation of 85 in attendance at your next reunion! Obviously, this is patently ridiculous, because even at the age of 89, contingency or what used to be referred to as the “cussedness” of life applies.

Approximately 14% of the U.S. population is over age 65. If we hypothetically assign all Covid deaths to this “aged” contingent, then 5% death rate due to Covid within this cohort results even if overall death rate of those who contract Covid is dubious low assumption of only .7%. There simply aren’t enough people over 80 “who would have died anyway”( at 3.3% of population) to take the hit without large loss (greater than 5 years) of life expectancy.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:32 pm
by George the original one
BEST GRAPHING TOOL SO FAR
"Are we winning yet?"

This interactive charts the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past week vs. the total confirmed cases to date. When plotted in this way, exponential growth is represented as a straight line that slopes upwards. Notice that almost all countries follow a very similar path of exponential growth.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

For those wishing a more visual explanation, particularly those who are not fond of math, here is an explanatory video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

Lastly, my editorial comment is that since the graph uses weekly data, there will be a lag as far as trajectory. In other words if a country is successful, the turn won't conclusively show up until next week. (Sure wish there was a USA states version; I'm certainly too lazy to make one)

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:36 pm
by Ego
jacob wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 pm
If those measures are lifted in order to return to BAU, the first model will hold again.
@Jacob & @J&G...Straw man. No one is suggesting returning to business as usual. We are surging hospital capacity at incredible rates. We are testing a wide variety of medications against the virus. We are working on antibody treatments. We are finally getting around to do extensive testing. We have come up with a dozen makeshift solutions to the ventilator problem. We have now hammered home to the vulnerable populations how important it is that they quarantine like both @JP & @7W have responsibly done. We are doing a thousand things that were not considered in the worst case model. They are costly and alone would push us into a recession. They are worth it.

With each proposed action (or refraining from action) we ought to consider not only the benefits but also the costs. To ignore the cost side is disingenuous at best.

We've turned the page so I will quote the link that @slowtraveler posted and encourage everyone to read it.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 pm
by thrifty++
J_ wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:58 pm
Today, 28 of March, Austria, little mountain village, friends of me on walking distance, a family of four, parents about 40+ children 13 and 11y. Mother became infected, became explicit ill on 20 of March, later all tested positive. Before: one parent healthy, other parent healthy but with a long standing muscle illness can hardly walk, children healthy. All isolated in their own home. Neighbors delivering groceries. First days, woman felt very fatigued, difficulty breathing, hardly appetite, man quickly tired. Now slightly improving health. I brought some things to them today (left it on their doorstep) and spoke from 7 yards with the children and mother. Children are hardly noticing it (only their confiness) parents feel slowly return of their strength. Not heard of any medicine.
For me it meant a relief, not only that my friends will overcome, but a real proof that healthy, fit people can withstand this virus.
A thing I like to share with you all.
Thanks for sharing this good news.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:58 pm
by steveo73
Ego wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:36 pm
We are doing a thousand things that were not considered in the worst case model. They are costly and alone would push us into a recession. They are worth it.

With each proposed action (or refraining from action) we ought to consider not only the benefits but also the costs. To ignore the cost side is disingenuous at best.
I agree. We have to look at this situation rationally and factually. I'm a fan of a small period total lockdown so I'm probably more on the extreme side of the actions to take but we cannot lose focus of the big picture here. This can be a catastrophic event if the health system cannot meet the increased demand from COVID-19 cases. There will be a massive economic impact.

I think we need to manage the health problem first but we need to realize that there are costs to the actions we are taking now and we should be looking to minimize those costs as much as possible. We shouldn't be basing our decisions on data that is limited in it's value to the situation that is evolving right now. We should not be giving models that are not reliable some sort of enhanced status of reliability that they don't have.

I work with data and I have for basically my whole career. You need to be very careful when using statistical models to predict processes that evolve/change in real time and you have poor data. This is exactly the situation that we are in right now.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:27 pm
by jacob
@Ego - I read the Kennon piece. I agree with others that he's missing a crucial aspect, so a straw man this is not. If the hospital system is overloaded, it's not just corona deaths, we counting, every other death rate will go up to unless we simply refuse treatment to anyone infected over the age of 65 or 40 or whatever the cutoff needs to be. The second aspect is that the world is not geared towards burying that many dead, alternatively dealing with so many estates ... or in general resolving the death of 5-10% of the population over 65 within the space of a few months.

Conversely, when it comes to the economy, I note that factories and businesses are still standing. What's being messed up right now is that our financial system relies part on the stock of money but also its flow. Much like a nuclear reactor, is NOT a system designed to be shut down just like that. The stock (savings) is still there but the flow (payments) is being cut off. This is where the government is uniquely capable of helicoptering in money to keep the flow on life support(*) There is of course lots of ideological opposition to this, but insofar people can wrap their minds around the factor that it's just account numbers on a computer screen largely guiding people around, perhaps it's not necessary to change people's behavior the hard way by letting ~1% of the population die.

(*) @bsog had a recent post with a great metaphor describing the economy as a car engine w/o a battery that must be kept running.

In "Marxist" terms, this whole debate basically seems to be similar to the one between labor and capital. It's not surprising that interested parties tend to stand where they usually sit as well. Those who have a lot of money/savings are willing to take greater risks with people's lives than those who have less. Perhaps especially those who rely on other people (their old friends?) for support instead of their dividends or 401k savings? One can definitely put a price on a human life... the question is how high? I calculated it in an earlier post: A complete shutdown was something like $175,000 per casualty. If old people are worth less than that, then the rational choice is to let the epidemic burn through.

Usually "respect for all individuals" (even the old and weak) ranks pretty high up there in terms of what we value which is also why most countries have opted for killing their economies over killing their old, although there are certainly voices, typically free market advocates, who value the economy over almost everything else. And technically, letting the old die sooner would solve a lot of other economic problems, like underfunded pensions and medic* systems, ... but where do we stop if we go down that path? Logan's run? These are some very hard ethical questions to answer.

Regardless of the debate, the thing is we are where we are ... and we have a system that we're not making major changes too (because it's almost impossible to change a complex system). There has to be a here->there solution.

It would appear that most countries are indeed slow-walking the measures doing the trade-off between not-overloading-the-healthcare-system and letting-the-economy-run-as-much-and-as-long-as-possible. Indeed, countries seemingly choose to lock things down a bit (rarely completely) just ahead of the deadline of "if you don't act now, you're fucked"-cliff. This has the effect of pushing the deadline out a bit to "if you don't act somewhat more, you're fucked again"-cliff. This is a fine line to walk and some countries have indeed falling over the cliff.

Regardless, this is how most leaders and most people are choosing to #flattenthecurve, basically iteratively playing it right up to the next crisis level. Following this "algorithm" does not require any knowledge or appreciation of the exponential features. Indeed---this is important---it will work too as long as there's no overshoot(*) built into the problem. (Of course, presuming that data are accurate :-P )

The strategy being followed by almost all countries in the world can be thus summarized as "lets enact just enough restrictions to avoid overloading our health care system but no more as the cost to the economy would be too high".

(*) With that algorithm, humanity is extremely lucky that the incubation time is not substantially longer than the doubling time (cf. HIV which has this problem ... fortunately, it's "only" an STD, so R0 is low and controllable) because that would allow the overshoot to build up before the consequences are felt. With COVID19, we see the consequences of our choices within two weeks or so.

PS: Sweden actually is going in the direction of minimum economic interference in the virus's path because they think killing the economy is a bigger deal than killing the old. It'll be interesting to see who is right.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:46 pm
by George the original one
George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:57 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:30p Fri 27 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 49015 Negatives
- 175 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 5 Adams (Ritzville)
- 42 Benton (Prosser)
- 13 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 76 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 12 Franklin (Pasco)
- 42 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 79 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1760 King (Seattle)
- 42 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 7 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 2 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 231 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 3 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 91 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 913 Snohomish (Everett)
- 86 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Stevens (Colville)
- 27 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 92 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Whitman (Colfax)
- 72 Yakima (Yakima)
- 45 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 10% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
1093 new cases.

The data in this report is reflective of all cases received as of 11:59 PM 3/27/2020. A small percentage of lab reports (<1%) have yet to be reviewed and are currently counted as negatives*.

State of Washington published count as of 3:30p Sat 28 Mar
- 4300 Positives
- 54896 Negatives
- 175 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 5 Adams (Ritzville)
- 56 Benton (Prosser)
- 13 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 82 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 10 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 16 Franklin (Pasco)
- 44 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 92 Island (Coupeville)
- 13 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 2077 King (Seattle)
- 49 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 7 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 3 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 282 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 4 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 97 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 912 Snohomish (Everett)
- 108 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Stevens (Colville)
- 33 Thurston (Olympia)
- 4 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 102 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 6 Whitman (Colfax)
- 100 Yakima (Yakima)
- 160 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 10% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 12% 70-79
- 12% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown