COVID-19

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classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

IlliniDave wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:06 pm
I'm a month out from my last haircut and will be looking scruffy here pretty soon.
Minus 4 ERE points for a male who does not cut his own hair.

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jennypenny
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Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: COVID-19

Post by jennypenny »

We received notice that our recycling will probably not be picked up for the foreseeable future. They also said we can't put out any trash that isn't in the can that gets emptied by the truck's arm because drivers are being instructed not to leave their vehicles.

In better news, the grocery stores around me aren't as overwhelmed as they were a week or two ago. I guess everyone is finished stockpiling and is back to regular shopping. Deliveries are impossible to book but if you're willing to go into a store you can get almost anything you need. This might be the ideal time to do some shopping -- between the initial onslaught and the inevitable shortages -- in case this thing drags on until summer.

@all -- Thanks for the well-wishes wrt our dog. We've decided she's a member of the family (had her 12 years) so she gets the medical care she needs, regardless of quarantine efforts. I'm scared but at peace with our decision. Her appointment was moved to Tuesday so maybe we'll get it done before cases explode in our area. Fingers crossed.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:19 am
Minus 4 ERE points for a male who does not cut his own hair.
That's probably my smallest points deduction yet!

bostonimproper
Posts: 314
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Abbott has announced FDA approval of a point of care test which can give results within 15 minutes. They will start with 50k tests per day beginning next week and expect to ramp up production to 5MM/month in April.

This is very good news and gives the US a chance to bring our outbreak under control like Korea and Singapore have.

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Jean
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Location: Switzterland

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

Aren't you all worried about the Fed going to own about everything?

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

It appears my assumptions about a 3% infection rate were far too conservative. Every single state is showing above that in the tests. 5-20% infection rates among the tested. Lower mortality than expected is the obvious conclusion. Hope we don't shoot ourselves in the head to cure a headache by destroying the economy and future generations.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... tates.html

https://www.joshuakennon.com/what-price ... -covid-19/

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

Ironically, the worse fears about Trump - autocratic tendencies - have turned in the opposite direction. Instead of leveraging this event into his "make the trains run on time" opportunity, he has been reluctant to impose federal oversight (just yesterday he invoked Defense Production Act). Complaints from his detractors is that he is not doing enough. Crises always involve chaos vs. control (security) dichotomies and generally speaking, people favor security i.e. Patriot Act > Bill of Rights at these times. From an economic standpoint, US is always Federal. But as far as all other policy is concerned, Trump is siding on state's rights. Obviously politics are involved but his reaction to this is about as far from the "strong man" narrative as one can get.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@slowtraveler:

The math in that piece by Joshua Kennan is abominable. For instance, he simultaneously claims that almost all who die will be within a few years of previously expected death absent Covid, yet he also claims that only 75/1000 people over the age of 80 will die.

I actually don’t disagree entirely with his premise that hard-eyed calculations will have to be made, heck I even made such a calculation for myself about quitting my job early vs. asthma/age 55 risk etc, but to try to sell such an agenda as general policy with the use of misleading data and math solidly qualifies him for inclusion in the intelligent/evil quadrant in my book.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Jason wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:03 am
Obviously politics are involved but his reaction to this is about as far from the "strong man" narrative as one can get.
Except that little bit about congressional oversight of the relief funds. And the whole pettiness of not supporting all governors as if the people in those states don't matter.

slowtraveler
Posts: 757
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@7Wannabe5

The math is correct for the assumptions made: a 15% mortality rate and a 50% infection rate.

1000 people infected *15% mortality rate * 50% infection rate = 75 deaths

To confirm in a calculator:
1000*.15*.5=75

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 am
Except that little bit about congressional oversight of the relief funds. And the whole pettiness of not supporting all governors as if the people in those states don't matter.
Fighting congress on implementation of policy is part and parcel of US government. FDR attempted to stack the Supreme Court to implement his New Deal policies. The fact that Trump is not supporting governors is far different than imposing his will on those governors. People have noted the irony of Trump declaring himself a "wartime" President because of his reluctance to mobilize the country based upon Executive decrees. Whether you agree with what he is doing is besides the point. One thing he is not doing is using the pandemic to increase his executive power. Call it unethical, call it incompetence, call it political, call it idealogical. One thing it is not is autocratic.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

The Kennon piece is bad because he doesn't state his assumptions. He says the "worst case scenario" is 2.2 million Americans die ~0.66%. Based on Jacob's estimates, if the death rate with access to ventilators is 1.2% and 60% of people get it then 0.72% of Americans die. So, no allowance for running out of ventilators, which under jacob's model, doubles the death rate, no allowance for people who die because of unavailable hospital beds and no discussion of the economic cost of all this health care, no allowance for the potentially destabilizing effects of healthcare systems collapse in the United States and abroad, no mention of the potentially increased death tolls in poorer nations. No accounting for the massive uncertainty that still surrounds the actual rate of anything with this disease. This isn't his "college try at what might happen scenario," this is his worst case scenario!

<sarcasm> >10% of diagnosed Italian cases have died and many are still ill. Based on this I conservatively project that 20% of all Italian cases will die and thus 20% of all Americans or .2*330,000,000 = 66,000,000 Americans will die. I dub this my "best case scenario" and present it as Fact #1. I used math so it has to be true. </sarcasm>

His worst case for the economy is complete economic collapse into an authoritarian dictatorship. Not bad for a worst case scenario, certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but still completely invented by the author. Also, where's the math dawg?

I don't disagree with him that we are currently facing a tough trade-off between the economy combatting the virus and that tough decision need to be made. I don't disagree with him that we are currently doing a poor job making those decisions. Assigning seemingly certain number values to invented scenarios, labeling those scenarios as facts and then making projections based on those scenarios is fucking fraud. It's goal post setting and it doesn't help clarify the discussion or aid in decision making.

Edit: Added sarcasm tags after terrifying at least one person.
Last edited by Jin+Guice on Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:03 pm
He says the "worst case scenario" is 2.2 million Americans die ~0.66%.
Hum. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that is the same worst case scenario number that appeared in the Imperial College report that caused the US and UK to lockdown. That report has since been revised down significantly.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Ego - Apologies for hammering this [very important point], but the downward revision is because action was subsequently taken relative to the underlying "do nothing" assumptions of the first model (with the 2.2M estimate). This lead to a new and much lower death toll in the second model---thus indicating that the adopted measures would be effective. If those measures are lifted in order to return to BAU, the first model will hold again.

Jin+Guice
Posts: 831
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@Ego: O.k. I didn't know that. Looks like I need to take my rage posting down a notch because this is not the grotesque abuse of mathematification that I thought it was.

From the Imperial College report: "The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the
second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times
greater than the maximum supply in both countries.
"

Whoops, looks like the Imperial College acknowledges that their own "worst case scenario" doesn't account for something they predict to happen. Assuming I have the right paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf), their central point is not to present a worst case scenario, but to outline strategies that would not overwhelm ICU capacity in the U.S. and U.K. I admit that I thought Kennon made up the numbers based on his own model without stating assumptions, which is why I was so mad. He instead abuses other peoples numbers, the advantage here is that assumptions can be examined.

The point of Kennon's article is that we need to look at the trade off between the economic costs and loss of life. These are big decisions and brashley making comparisons based on incorrect assumptions and incomplete models is not doing anyone any favors nor does it help us examine trade offs.


@Augustus: Thanks for the compliment, but don't confuse the fact that I work in a hospital with me having actual medical training. I was trained solely for my job and honestly being an audio technician for years prepared me more for my specific job than any of the shallow medical knowledge I acquired during "training." My job has nothing to do with the part of medicine that's important for this pandemic. I am actually out of work because surgeries are largely cancelled and my skills are non-transferable. Even trained medical professionals such as doctors or nurses, who have a depth of general medical knowledge (which again, I do not), are still highly specialized. As usual, the crowd here is different and I think the medical professionals here have made conservative and accurate statements where they acknowledge their level of expertise and how it relates to this issue.

J_
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:12 pm
Location: Netherlands/Austria

Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

Today, 28 of March, Austria, little mountain village, friends of me on walking distance, a family of four, parents about 40+ children 13 and 11y. Mother became infected, became explicit ill on 20 of March, later all tested positive. Before: one parent healthy, other parent healthy but with a long standing muscle illness can hardly walk, children healthy. All isolated in their own home. Neighbors delivering groceries. First days, woman felt very fatigued, difficulty breathing, hardly appetite, man quickly tired. Now slightly improving health. I brought some things to them today (left it on their doorstep) and spoke from 7 yards with the children and mother. Children are hardly noticing it (only their confiness) parents feel slowly return of their strength. Not heard of any medicine.
For me it meant a relief, not only that my friends will overcome, but a real proof that healthy, fit people can withstand this virus.
A thing I like to share with you all.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:27 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Fri, Mar 27
- 414 Positives
- 8510 Negatives
- 12 Deaths

Cases by County
- 5 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 31 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 18 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 6 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 28 Linn (Albany)
- 83 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 67 Multnomah (Portland)
- 10 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 3 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 122 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 11 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 9 19 or younger
- 32 20-29
- 48 30-39
- 81 40-49
- 78 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 47 70-79
- 35 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 15 50-59
- 29 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 11 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 102 Yes
- 218 No
- 94 Not provided

Sex
- 222 Male
- 187 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 360 Available ICU beds
- 2294 Available non-ICU beds
- 715 Available ventilators
- 91 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
65 new cases including a third case in my county. A change in how available beds are reported, now separating adult-size from child-size.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Sat, Mar 28
- 479 Positives
- 9693 Negatives
- 13 Deaths

Cases by County
- 8 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 36 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 20 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 8 Jackson (Medford)
- 5 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 32 Linn (Albany)
- 94 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 81 Multnomah (Portland)
- 11 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 4 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 140 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 13 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 10 19 or younger
- 39 20-29
- 60 30-39
- 95 40-49
- 91 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 49 70-79
- 42 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 5 30-39
- 21 40-49
- 16 50-59
- 33 60- 69
- 23 70-79
- 16 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 117 Yes
- 266 No
- 96 Not provided

Sex
- 260 Male
- 214 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 283 Available adult ICU beds
- 2099 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 189 Available pediatric beds
- 68 Available pediatric ICU beds
- 746 Available ventilators
- 107 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@slowtraveler:

I wasn’t doubting Kennon’s ability to perform calculations. I was attempting to point out his handwaving regarding life expectancy. In the U.S. the annual death rate for men does not hit 15% until age 89.

Imagine you are 89 and you attend a reunion of the 100 remaining members of your Korean conflict division. Prior to Covid you would expect only 85 in attendance next year. The assumption that 50% penetration of Covid will just pick off 7 or 8 of the 15 guys who would have died anyways implies that even given Covid there will still be expectation of 85 in attendance at your next reunion! Obviously, this is patently ridiculous, because even at the age of 89, contingency or what used to be referred to as the “cussedness” of life applies.

Approximately 14% of the U.S. population is over age 65. If we hypothetically assign all Covid deaths to this “aged” contingent, then 5% death rate due to Covid within this cohort results even if overall death rate of those who contract Covid is dubious low assumption of only .7%. There simply aren’t enough people over 80 “who would have died anyway”( at 3.3% of population) to take the hit without large loss (greater than 5 years) of life expectancy.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

BEST GRAPHING TOOL SO FAR
"Are we winning yet?"

This interactive charts the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past week vs. the total confirmed cases to date. When plotted in this way, exponential growth is represented as a straight line that slopes upwards. Notice that almost all countries follow a very similar path of exponential growth.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

For those wishing a more visual explanation, particularly those who are not fond of math, here is an explanatory video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

Lastly, my editorial comment is that since the graph uses weekly data, there will be a lag as far as trajectory. In other words if a country is successful, the turn won't conclusively show up until next week. (Sure wish there was a USA states version; I'm certainly too lazy to make one)

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 pm
If those measures are lifted in order to return to BAU, the first model will hold again.
@Jacob & @J&G...Straw man. No one is suggesting returning to business as usual. We are surging hospital capacity at incredible rates. We are testing a wide variety of medications against the virus. We are working on antibody treatments. We are finally getting around to do extensive testing. We have come up with a dozen makeshift solutions to the ventilator problem. We have now hammered home to the vulnerable populations how important it is that they quarantine like both @JP & @7W have responsibly done. We are doing a thousand things that were not considered in the worst case model. They are costly and alone would push us into a recession. They are worth it.

With each proposed action (or refraining from action) we ought to consider not only the benefits but also the costs. To ignore the cost side is disingenuous at best.

We've turned the page so I will quote the link that @slowtraveler posted and encourage everyone to read it.

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