COVID-19

Health, Fitness, Insurance, ...
1taskaday
Posts: 438
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:45 am
Location: England

Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

Just heard a snapshot sentence from an interview with a
Dr.Garret A.Fitzgerald,Perelman school of medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

He said they will be screening 5,000 people for Coronovirus antibodies next week.

Can't find any other information on the internet on this...has anyone any links/knowledge on this?

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 12393
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

NYC ICU capacity expected to be exceeded this Friday (3/27)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... itals.html

User avatar
Bankai
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Jason wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:15 pm
Russia? Please. See "Chernobyl". I'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff's numbers.
It's not just Russia. I suspect the whole of Middle-Eastern and Eastern Europe has no idea what is happening within their borders. Some anecdotes from Poland (officially only c. 1k cases):

- Since the country is totally not prepared hospitals ordered some masks from abroad but these were stopped at the border and confiscated by the army

- Old folks who die at home from pneumonia/breathing difficulties are not tested (and neither are their families) and the official cause is reported as 'suffocation'; similarly many who end up in the hospital are not tested; some people are not isolated even in hospitals

- Disinformation & contradictory advice at all levels; someone called with symptoms after returning from the high-risk country and was asked which border crossing they used & was then told they need to go back and come through a different crossing so they can be tested there

- One government minister was already diagnosed with COVID-19 but the cabinet continued to meet in person; now 15 government ministers are being quarantined

- Presidential elections are still going ahead because while it's still early stages of epidemic in Poland, the governing party hopes to win the election before the situation deteriorates ('stay at home but go to vote')

- Religious gatherings were never canceled and initially encouraged to 'pray for the sick' (there are hundreds/thousands on each mass in Poland); now there's a limit of how many people can participate

- TV reports that the Polish government is receiving regular calls from other European governments praising their actions and asking for advice on how to fight the virus

dashh
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:06 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by dashh »

Meanwhile I have people I work with bitching about their beach being closed and their renters having to leave their rental properties. Then others looking for loopholes in the stay at home policies in our city so they can go to the office. I just don't get it.

Maybe it is just because I am not over 60, but I am at high risk due to an underlying lung condition but who knows. I don't want to die because one of these idiots can't stand to work from home or misses out on some rental income.

George the original one
Posts: 5335
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

1taskaday wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:41 pm
Just heard a snapshot sentence from an interview with a
Dr.Garret A.Fitzgerald,Perelman school of medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

He said they will be screening 5,000 people for Coronovirus antibodies next week.

Can't find any other information on the internet on this...has anyone any links/knowledge on this?
It was discussed in front of the UK Parliament with availability for next week as a home test kit. Sorry, I didn't save a link. Only useful for those who think they've recovered from COVID-19.

George the original one
Posts: 5335
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Washington State Department of Health:
Due to ongoing difficulties, the numbers for March 25 may be delayed.

1taskaday
Posts: 438
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:45 am
Location: England

Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ithin-days

Thanks found it in The Guardian.

I think this could be the path back to normality for a lot of people.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1666
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

1taskaday wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:25 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ithin-days

Thanks found it in The Guardian.

I think this could be the path back to normality for a lot of people.
Awesome! That's good to hear. An inexpensive and fast at-home antibody test will be a major tool in moving past the fear stage and getting back to some sense of normalcy.

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Hey that test looks like a game changer.

Does anyone know if this kind of test can distinguish between having antibodies and being infected and contagious?

Basically what does a positive mean?

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 4809
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Stahlmann wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks
MIT has a project to ramp up ventilator capacity using a BVM (bag valve mask) and some simple tech.

https://e-vent.mit.edu/

Image

You can still get a BVMs online. The Red Cross Store still has them in stock for $14.99. These are non-invasive as they use the mask to create a seal around the face and pump air into the lungs. They can be attached to an intubation tube to do the job of a typical ventilator as you can see in the photo, but you would still need someone to pump it. I've pumped one in training for several minutes on a dummy and I can say for sure it is not easy. It would not be a solution for someone needing ventilation for many days without the mechanical piece above.

thrifty++
Posts: 1085
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

NZ now has 283 confirmed or probable cases.

27 recoveries.

No one has been in the intense or critical stage yet.

12,683 tests have been done in total. 1,400 test per day have been getting done in the last week which is why numbers are increasing rapidly.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12320032

1taskaday
Posts: 438
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:45 am
Location: England

Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

www.newscientist.com/article/2238477-ho ... 5182514361

The following is relevant information on the antibody test taken from newscientist link above:

What about antibody tests?

The downside of antibody tests is that they cannot detect infections in the first two weeks or so, when people are most contagious. However, our bodies keep making antibodies even after we have recovered from an infection, so testing people’s blood for antibodies against the coronavirus will reveal how many of us have been infected so far. This will help us calculate the infection fatality rate.

Can antibody tests distinguish between people who have recovered and those who are still infected?

Sometimes. People start producing so-called IgM antibodies against the coronavirus around 10 days after showing symptoms (perhaps 15 days after infection). After another two days, their bodies start making IgG antibodies, and gradually stop making IgM. Most people will recover fully as soon as IgG levels ramp up. Many rapid tests can detect both types of antibodies. If IgM antibodies are present in someone’s blood, they are likely to be still infected. If only IgG is present, they are recovering or fully recovered.

How accurate are these rapid tests?

We don’t know. Numerous companies are producing different tests that haven’t been independently checked yet. In general, testing for antigens or antibodies is less accurate than genetic testing, but the tests are easier and cheaper to manufacture. Rapid tests could play a valuable role, especially in poorer countries with little testing capacity. If they can reliably tell us when people have already been infected, it would allow key workers – especially in healthcare – to continue working without worrying about becoming infected or infecting their families.

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Hey thanks that clears it up.

CS
Posts: 554
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:24 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

Another ventilator hack with an ambubag and a motor. Same concept as above.

Sure people here could make one in an afternoon.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/03/ ... entilator/

George the original one
Posts: 5335
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:23 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Tue, 24 Mar
- 2469 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 12 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 29 Island (Coupeville)
- 8 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1277 King (Seattle)
- 20 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 18 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 138 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 48 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 614 Snohomish (Everett)
- 33 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 64 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 44 Yakima (Yakima)
- 65 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown
"The state's notifiable conditions database is currently experiencing a slowdown because of a 10-fold increase in the number of lab reports received. Our IT team is working to correct the issue."

111 new cases today. Added Ferry and Okanogan counties. Spokane area is accelerating now, likely due to the don't-tell-me-what-I-can-do attitude prevalent there.

State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Wed, 25 Mar
- 2580 Positives
- 31712 Negatives (not updated for 2 days now)
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 10 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 38 Island (Coupeville)
- 10 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1359 King (Seattle)
- 27 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 6 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 155 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 63 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 634 Snohomish (Everett)
- 54 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 66 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 51 Yakima (Yakima)
- 77 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown

George the original one
Posts: 5335
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

So far I've heard NYC, LA, Detroit, Chicago, and Atlanta ICUs are at capacity or will reach capacity in the next couple days.

CajunQueen
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:17 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by CajunQueen »

Add NOLA to that list
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 33111.html

"Because the city's hospitals are projected to run out of capacity by April 7, the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center has been tapped as a place where 3,000 patients can be housed when they no longer need intensive care"

Colibri
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:26 am
Location: Northern Canada

Re: COVID-19

Post by Colibri »

jacob wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:16 am
+1

COVID19 is a threat multiplier. It increases mortality-rates for everything. It even makes non-lethal problems worse. Now is not a good time to get a tooth ache, for example. What we're trying to avoid is going back to having a 1860s-style health care system for a while. One of the reasons is that we don't have a population with a constitution/overall health to deal with that.
This is happening in my city. Local hospital (56 beds, nothing else in a 1000km radius) just shot the door to any non-emergency type of care. No more blood work, ultra-sound, specialist visits, etc. The only service provided right now is emergency care. We only have 3 cases, all travel related. No community transmission yet and the top doctor think we can avoid it if we respect the confinement.

You can't go the clinic either. All telehealth or phone call.

How many people will see their health declined because they can't have something as simple as blood work done to monitor a chronic condition ?
So important to stay healthy... when SHTF this is what you have to deal with.

Noal
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:08 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Noal »

I just wanted to add something to the UK Guardian story about 3.5million home tests shared a few posts up.

The UK PM and Chief Medical Advisor to the government did caveat that somewhat the afternoon after the story broke. They have ordered the tests but need to verify if it works or not. In their words, "an inaccurate test is worse than no test". That process is expected to take at least a week. The article suggested this was going to be available for online order but the PM press conference yesterday suggested access to the test would be much more controlled and targeted.

Finally, they stressed that other tests are much more important at this stage. Specifically, tests to see if someone currently has an infection are crucial now. Antibody tests are only appropriate a week or so (I think he said) after the infection. They will play an important role when it comes to a phased lifting of the lockdown.

One thing that worries me, and which I didn't learn until this crisis started, is that flu immunity isn't lifelong. I had always thought once you get once strain of the flu you can never get it again. I believe there have been cases of the same person getting COVID-19 twice. It is also possible to have immunity against other infections for only a matter of months before that falls away and we just don't know what the picture is for COVID-19. The thought of second and third waves of this is very concerning. As are the increasing stories I'm seeing about young people really suffering/dying from this disease. (possibly natural as the death toll goes up, the incidences of that goes up).

[edit - 1 task a day shared something above which puts antibody production 10-15 days after infection, so revise my "Antibody tests are only appropriate a week or so..." to "10-15 days of so". It's over a week anyway.]

steveo73
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Australia has 2,799 infections and 12 deaths. It's growing quickly but so far we don't have those massive death tolls that some countries are having. People still don't get the concept of social distancing.

Post Reply