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Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:30 am
by Ego
We are seeing some absolutely crazy proposals for the economic crisis from serious people who are practicing the, "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" method of problem solving.

We don't have signatures here but I think I will be adopting my favorite quote as my signature for the near future.

"The chief cause of problems is solutions", Eric Sevareid

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:33 am
by ertyu
On TV in my country: a special on how successful China was with dealing with the virus and how now they are sending medical teams and humanitarian aid to other affected countries + how their industry is restarting (and presumably ready to export). In addition to humanitarian aid, the Chinese embassy has offered supposedly preferential rates on PPE etc. should we want to buy it from them.

Tbh I admire the 4d chess. The US dropped the ball on this one, both domestically and geopolitically. Americans are too busy navel-gazing - and will soon be too busy with the sheer scale of what will come - but I wonder if they will manage to regain their position as a world leader after the trump presidency + this botched pandemic response. China is playing this very very intelligently.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:41 am
by 20sharkall03
Coming from NE Wisconsin the results are varied in terms of what measures are being implemented individually.

My workplace is taking this very seriously. All meetings have been cancelled or reworked to be held remotely. Social distancing is enforced and working from home went from 0% to 70% in less than two weeks time. Given that we manufacture some of our own product 100% is not possible. I actually purchased a new computer yesterday (our iMac was 11 years old) in order to have most modern APP and OS specs if I am forced to run remotely. I am less concerned about catching the virus than the economic ramifications that will burden society. Having started with my current employer 4 weeks ago still going through my training program for my project management position does produce some light anxiety.

Personally I have limited my interactions as much as possible in my workplace but I am still venturing out weekly for groceries and basic household supplies. Children are off from school and my wife is an educator so she is home all day. Their risk of catching anything is nearly 100% related to my actions. DW and children have not interacted with anyone outside a couple close friends for two weeks unless they face time grandparents.

Cases in Wisconsin are much like the rest of the United States: increasing quickly and hospitals are at 98% capacity.

Side note: Last week I ate something that caused food poisoning. No cough, no runny nose or anything but was diuretic for 7 days and had a 101 fever for two days. Went to the urgent care after 7 days to be told to go home drink lots of fluids. Very little concern from staff that I had contracted COVID given that I have not travelled more than 10 mile from home in probably 2 months.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:41 am
by Toska2
George the original one wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:27 am
Dead is dead.
I dislike that sentiment. It confounds who had weeks to live and who had decades. As bad as the data is, labeling a death due to the final moment is obscuring the truth. Might as well say drunk driving doesnt kill people, its the sudden stop.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
by Seppia
ertyu wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:33 am
The US dropped the ball on this one, both domestically and geopolitically. Americans are too busy navel-gazing - and will soon be too busy with the sheer scale of what will come - but I wonder if they will manage to regain their position as a world leader after the trump presidency + this botched pandemic response. China is playing this very very intelligently.
Indeed
China has been sending containers of masks for free, and a team of specialists from Wuhan landed in Milan about a week ago to help.
They are trying to do the exact opposite of what Trump has been doing for his whole presidency.
Smart propaganda, which will probably have long lasting effects.
I think some Americans are underestimating how destructive for the USA brand president Trump has been. I would think it is very reversible in case of a very clear loss in the election*, but a second term may make the damage irreparable.

*europeans still know what to choose between a capitalist democracy and a communist dictatorship.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:12 pm
by ertyu
Also, notice that China singlehandedly repositioned itself as the export powerhouse of the world when most of the developed world is still under quarantine. Two months ago (before covid started) they were fucked. Now they just might not be. I wonder what the global macro implications will be here.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:47 pm
by Jason
Andrew Cuomo has secured his position as a (possibly "the") Democratic frontrunner in 2020 (if Biden wins he has stated he will be one term). New York now has 5% of the world's total cases and he is working this like Guiliani did 9/11.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
by wolf
Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine, because her doctor was tested positive. And she had contact with him two days ago.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:14 pm
by Tyler9000
Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
Smart propaganda, which will probably have long lasting effects.
Key word - propaganda. Keep in mind this is the same country that actively suppressed news of the virus for months, lied to the WHO about its transmissibility, arrested the doctor who originally reported it publicly before leaving him to die, and are spreading accusations on state news that it's a US bioweapon.

I get why they're trying to change the narrative, but I'm not confident it's going to stick once other countries have the luxury of time and energy to push back against their self-serving revisionist history.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:19 pm
by thedollar
wolf wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine, because her doctor was tested positive. And she had contact with him two days ago.
She saw the doctor to get a vaccination - against what? :oops:

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:34 pm
by Jason
thedollar wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:19 pm
She saw the doctor to get a vaccination - against what? :oops:
Hopefully it's The Herp. Give the world something else to talk about.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:30 pm
by George the original one
George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sat, Mar 21
- 137 Positives
- 2338 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 437 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 11 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 9 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 3 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 19 Marion (Salem)
- 18 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 42 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 4 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 41 35-54
- 75 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 82 No
- 12 Not provided
24 new cases. Pending tests have been removed from the stats (see next paragraph). Washington County's share of cases has increased from 31% to 34% of all cases in Oregon.

"As of March 22, 2020, we no longer include the number of pending test results. Those numbers are only available from the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory (OSPHL). The OSPHL serves as the first source of testing during an outbreak and as commercial labs come online, OSPHL increases focus on priority testing. Commercial labs have the ability to conduct testing on an industrial scale, but do not report pending results, so this number would not accurately reflect the number of pending results."

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sun, Mar 22
- 161 Positives
- 2864 Negatives
- 3 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 12 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 22 Marion (Salem)
- 19 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 55 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 49 35-54
- 91 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 88 No
- 21 Not provided

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:41 pm
by Seppia
Tyler9000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:14 pm
Key word - propaganda. Keep in mind this is the same country that actively suppressed news of the virus for months, lied to the WHO about its transmissibility, arrested the doctor who originally reported it publicly before leaving him to die, and are spreading accusations on state news that it's a US bioweapon.

I get why they're trying to change the narrative, but I'm not confident it's going to stick once other countries have the luxury of time and energy to push back against their self-serving revisionist history.
I know what I would choose.
But people like simple narratives. The simple narrative is Trump has spent the last 4 years treating Europe as an enemy, China is sending us masks and experts.
Narratives have power

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:42 pm
by jacob
The bing map now includes county level details for the US. Note how the epidemic follows the standard path for such things. The first to be hit are the cities with global [air]ports that receive a lot of international traffic (also vacation spots). Then the disease travels inland to other bigger cities from there ... and then slowly makes it into the hinterland after that.

It will be interesting to see what happens in two weeks after all the springbreakers return to places all over the country from partying together in FL. Perhaps, this effect will be big enough to detect in the case stats 2-3 weeks from now as the virus has had time to incubate/infect family members.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:56 pm
by George the original one
jacob wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:42 pm
The bing map now includes county level details for the US.
I like the county-level data, but they do a mediocre job at updating, at least they do for Oregon. Oregon data has obviously been county-level for weeks now as I'm pulling it off the state web-site and Bing is 1 day behind in reporting the numbers. I suppose there's some intrigue behind the scenes.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:05 pm
by slowtraveler
China literally gave the world the disease. I'd rather not get stabbed than have someone help me heal the potentially lethal wound after they stabbed me.

Wuhan held the world's biggest banquet 2 months after knowing of the outbreak. When doctors messaged each other to be careful about a possible disease, they get arrested. Such pathetic leadership there. I applaud the strong freedom fighters doing their best there but the ccp is a joke as a leadership. And now, people I love are scared of losing their businesses because of this. Seriously. Fuck China.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:08 pm
by ertyu
@slowtraveler and @tyler - this isn't about who's a good guy and who's a bad guy. I am only observing a (attempted?) geopolitical shift slowly in the making.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:14 pm
by slowtraveler
The shift has been a long time coming. It's a distribution of power. Asia as a whole will become more independent. Hopefully, we can all work together but the deception there is beyond atrocious.

What you saw was propoganda, I've been extremely close to China, it's not a place I'd ever want to visit. It's disgusting.

All my respect to Taiwan, they've handled this extremely well for how close they are. I sincerely hope they take back their country before the mainland does more damage to the world and the Chinese brand.

*None of these comments are meant to be taken as derogatory towards any ethnicity but a specific, very small group of people who claim to be communists but are just dictators. I feel angered that people believe their propoganda.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:16 pm
by jacob
Lets put a halt on the blame-shifting and blame-gaming talks for 6+ months until the first one or two waves of the pandemic have run its course!

Right now, it's more interesting and relevant to focus on how the pandemic develops and what strategies work or has worked.

If anyone still feels absolutely compelled to work through the political fallout/consequences from this, take it over to this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11256 ... and keep in mind that there are multiple nationalities reading along on the board. Also keep in mind that zoonotic infectious diseases require a complex system to occur, and just like the credit crisis, it's all too easy to put the blame on whatever particular aspect of the "elephant" that one personally dislikes, whereas in reality, it was a confluence of factors that can and will create another disease again at some point.

Re: COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:33 pm
by 7Wannabe5
+1

One recent novel killer zoonotic virus which spread to humans was due to a racehorse owned by very wealthy Westerners interacting with a bat.

I am taking two different courses very quickly to try to better understand stand this. One thing I can see already is terrible skew in the reporting in Michigan because around half the test results are coming out of just one hospital system’s own labs. I predicted the “official” state numbers today very accurately based on the hospital system’s numbers, but they are clearly way off of reality. As Jacob noted elsewhere, deaths are the only solid data. Second most solid IMO would be the numbers based on the virus mutation rate.