COVID-19

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Change is happening fast.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... er/608560/

Taking advantage of this impulse, some are already going much farther. On Friday, the Hungarian government sent a bill to Parliament that will give dictatorial powers to the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, in the name of the “emergency.” For an indefinite period of time, he will be able to ignore whichever laws he wishes, without consulting legislators; elections and referenda are to be suspended. Breaking of quarantine will become a crime, punishable by a prison sentence. The spread of false information or other information that causes “disturbance” or “unrest” will also be a crime, also punishable by a prison sentence. It is unclear who will define false: The language is vague enough that it could include almost any criticism of the government’s public-health policy.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

Prefer this tracker.
https://ncov2019.live

Edit: Cup of coffee bought.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

It may be time to reconsider the details of Medical Advance Directives. Many here including me have expressed a desire to avoid extraordinary measures to sustain life. Some of us may have created Advance Directives stating that. Ventilation is considered an extraordinary measure.

Advance Directives by state
https://www.nhpco.org/patients-and-care ... -directive

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

theanimal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:51 pm
@GTOO- Is that the first drop in growth for WA?
No. I think it's pretty much within the noise level.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Lucky C wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:33 am
this lack of recoveries was concerning to me. Is the explanation that many countries are just not reporting recoveries like China was?
Remember that it takes at least a week for non-hospitalized recoveries and 2-3 weeks for hospitalized recoveries. Thus the USA, for instance, only has about 200 recoveries for the 40k cases.

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

Right but I wasn't taking issue with the recovery % rate, but the recovery growth rate. If case doubling rate has been constant e.g. 3x per week for the past several weeks, and recovery % rate stays constant over time, then recovery doubling rate should roughly match case doubling rate. That wasn't happening on the Johns Hopkins tracker but it's probably just a lack of good recovery reporting or an issue with just their tracker.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

I may be making this up(?!)(*), but I think a confirmed recovery takes two separate negative tests spaced some time apart. Since this is a lingering disease, I doubt a clinical diagnosis is enough(?) Given how a lot of countries are short on testing capacity, they may not want to spend them on updating their recovery numbers.

(*) I don't remember where I saw it.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

For those interested in the testing saga as pertains to the US.
TL;DR (my takeaway) Our bureaucracy face-planted a little.

https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the- ... latorsthat

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

I think China switched to three negatives to get out of the quarantine housing after finding some instances of negative then positive testing. Also cannot remember where saw that, but there were some really angry Chinese people posting videos about it and still being stuck in quarantine.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Lecture by Chief Medical Officer for England Prof Chris Whitty, the man in charge of the UK COVID-19 strategy: How to Control a Pandemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn55z95 ... 78008299b2

Miss Lonelyhearts
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Miss Lonelyhearts »

@jacob: Fauci said two negative tests 24 hours apart in his interview with Mark Zuckerberg: https://www.channel3000.com/i/faucimay- ... r-society/ (clip)
https://www.facebook.com/zuck/videos/li ... 294466031/ (full)

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:30 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sun, Mar 22
- 161 Positives
- 2864 Negatives
- 3 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 12 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 22 Marion (Salem)
- 19 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 55 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 49 35-54
- 91 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 88 No
- 21 Not provided
30 new cases. Added Hood River County.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Mon, Mar 23
- 191 Positives
- 3649 Negatives
- 5 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 14 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 20 Linn (Albany)
- 30 Marion (Salem)
- 21 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 69 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 5 18-24
- 15 25-34
- 64 35-54
- 103 55+

Hospitalized
- 56 Yes
- 106 No
- 29 Not provided
Last edited by George the original one on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

So it looks like, because Oregon is still short on testing materials and judging by the hospitalization rate, that we're missing around half the cases out there. And that doesn't count pre-symptomatic people.

Will
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Will »


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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

US Army plan to convert schools, dorms and hotel rooms into ICUs. Skip to 17:00

https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast/23526

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

UK and Germany are now both on the 2-person limit.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue- ... /#note-3-6

Not sure if this was posted already or not, but there are maps of state level data, including what's being done by each state in terms of school and business closures as well as mandatory quarantines.

I'm not sure how up to date it is. Louisiana has a mandatory quarantine and non-essential business closure starting at 5p today. The mandatory quarantine is on the map but the non-essential business closure is not.

A lot of the people in this thread are in the worst hit and therefore the most locked down places. I was surprised to see Mississippi (which is about 30 minute from the eastern edge of New Orleans) hasn't put any bar or restaurant restrictions yet. New Orleans is pretty much shut down, not everyone is following the warning, but the majority are. Has anyone else been out in any other hard hit cities? Has anyone been out in any areas that are less hard hit? Are those areas without restrictions preceding with business as usual?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

https://covidactnow.org/ (US)

State by state estimate of when the hospital system will be overwhelmed given various strategies: do nothing, social distancing, shelter-in-place, Wuhan-style.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@jacob: Very interesting. They don't seem to account for most states having taken some action already. New York, Washington and Louisiana are all past their "point of no return" dates, but each of those states took some action before those dates.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Unalakleet, Alaska has banned travel into or out of the village. Many other villages have told air services not to fly to the communities except for food/mail. These communities are completely off the road system so they are drastically reducing their risk of contracting the virus. Alaska's villages have many elders and almost no medical facilities. I hope more get on board and be proactive.

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