COVID-19

Health, Fitness, Insurance, ...
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Alphaville
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Alphaville »

EdithKeeler wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:21 pm
All is well here, but I still don’t have any onions, dammit.
get this while you still can:

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signatu ... 34981.html

works in soups, beans, stews, etc.

also blends well with cream cheese, sour cream, etc

-x

eta: apologies if you read pre-edit. im slightly fatigued. :oops:

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Jean wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:58 pm
Were are you going to find those tests?
Testing isn't the solution because there won't be enough test kits. I personally want everyone to go into lockdown for a month apart from essential services across the world. If we can then starve this virus out it'd be fantastic.

I think that there is no chance of that happening and I think the best we will get is some form of social distancing and management of positive test cases that will flatten the curve. The amount of people who practice social-distancing and the ability of the various health systems within each country will determine the impact within various countries.

Socially responsible people + good health systems probably equals a flu like virus.
Socially irresponsible people + poor health systems probably equals catastrophe.

I think no matter the situation we are going to have an economic disaster however I assume most people on here will be okay dependent on their progress towards FI.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ugh. At 126 cases, it may not sound like many, but Las Vegas had only 3 cases 8 days ago. Is it too much to suggest this is what happens without social distancing?

For comparison, Oregon has 114 cases today and 8 days ago had 30.

For the entire state of Nevada, the story is even worse:
Sisolak said the number of positive cases in our state has skyrocketed, increasing by 70% in just three days. He noted the numbers are not slowing down, and we have not yet reached our apex.

The governor said due to the fact Nevada does not have enough test kits, we don’t know the full scope of the virus.

Sisolak revealed the Nevada Division of Behavioral and Public Health received a notice that all of our state’s requests for testing kits are on an indefinite backlog.
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-new ... se-to-109/
The 109 count is yesterday's state-wide, so I can imagine the governor's shock now that today's figure is known.

Edit: After reading the whole article linked above, there's even worse news because it appears Nevada made zero preparations!
Sisolak says we have 5,000 acute care beds in Nevada, fewer than 700 are intensive care unit beds. More than 80% of those beds are occupied right now, with a mix of COVID-19 and other patients. That leaves only 20% remaining.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Oregon is going into a lockdown, but don't call it a lockdown. Non-essential businesses will be ordered closed on Monday.
***
The other Oregon news, hospitalizations of COVID-19 cases will be reported once again.
“Hospitalizations don’t lie,” Peter Graven, Oregon Health and Science University’s lead data scientist, said in a legislative hearing. “Whether or not you’ve been tested, if you get sick enough, you’re going to show up at the hospital. The number we want to watch is our hospitalization rate.”

After questions from numerous media outlets, the Oregon Health Authority said late Friday that it would resume posting hospitalizations on Saturday.
[...]
By Friday, Modie said Oregon would start posting the hospitalization numbers again the next day. He said the authority was aware of 40 people being hospitalized among the 115 coronavirus cases identified in Oregon.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/ ... ng-it.html

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

theanimal wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:46 pm
@Seppia- Can you comment on the quality of Italy's healthcare system? The OECD rating is 9.9/10 for the Lombardy region and other wealthy areas of the country are reported to be high quality as well.
Sorry, only now catching up on stuff.

Italy really is a very different country north/south.
The north is an advanced first world nation, while much of the south is closer 2nd world.
The healthcare system in Lombardy is world class, full stop.
I say this out of facts (ie it has one of the lowest -if not THE lowest- child and mother mortality at delivery in the world) and anecdotal evidence.
Having been treated across the globe, the only system that I’ve seen that kind of compares is the French system.
If you look at WHO rankings, italy is number 2 worldwide after France, and again remember the effectiveness is hampered by a subpar system in the south.
Maybe the the best hospitals in the USA are better than any hospital in Italy, but if you look at the averages it’s a different story.

My dad believes the high mortality we are experiencing is due to a mix of

- we are one of the oldest countries in the world in terms of age brackets.
- the hospitals of Bergamo and Brescia (the two hardest hit cities nowadays) are severely overwhelmed.
In practical terms this means available respirators go to younger people and the old infected are basically left to die
- up until a short while ago, we would only test people with bad symptoms: the real denominator is likely much bigger

All the above makes me very worried for the USA.

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Jean
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

France's Chloroquine's stocks have been plundered.... Litterally

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

US Government COVID-19 Response Plan
March 13, 2020

Large PDF file

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper ... pdf#page=1

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Took my dogs to the park this morning. At 6:30 AM, we park goers were few and observed social distancing.

Interesting, though, when I passed Wal-mart and saw a ton of cars in the parking lot, and people lined up to get in. Some people were tightly packed together, chatting away like they were waiting in line for tickets to the next Dtar Wars movie; others were clearly very carefully keeping well away from everyone else.

It’s just interesting to me that some people are paying absolutely no attention to the warnings and recommendations, and others (me!) just want to completely hole up alone in the house until this passes. Of course I’d like to believe that the assholes not paying attention will be culled out, but of course life is never that fair.

I broke down and ordered dry onions and fresh onions today. I can’t survive the apocalypse with no onions. But I’m definitely getting some onions sets to plant.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Seppia wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:48 am
My dad believes the high mortality we are experiencing is due to a mix of
[...]
I'm surprised he didn't mention a certain Lombardy leader who downplayed COVID-19 as "just the flu", much like Trump did here. Plus a quarantine that came, was removed, and then reinstated.

ether
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ether »

I'm not a viral geneticist, but I find it pretty interesting that COVID-19 is not even genetically close to the flu but much closer to SARS & the common cold (lower kill rate but much higher transmission

If you look COVID-19 and the flu are not even in the same order!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae

Again not an expert but there has never been a vaccine for the cold since there are tons of strains and it's not super lethal like SARS, so I'm skeptical there will be a cure all vaccine for COVID-19 especially if it keeps mutating as it spreads

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -cold-yet/

Another chart showing the evolution of COVID-19
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Also a video of what triage really looks like in Italy, spoiler alert it's not pretty
https://vimeo.com/398266494
Last edited by ether on Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Checking on family, my sister here on the central Oregon coast has done an excellent job preparing. Much better than I expected considering her health & anxieties & dependent on food stamps. It helps that she used to work in healthcare, so knows how to deal with gloves, etc., and took the threat seriously before Trump's public reversal.

My brother in Texas, not so much... because he's an introvert and germophobe, social distancing isn't a problem and he mostly took the threat seriously, but being elderly (he and his wife are over age 75, he's using a cane now and about to start using a walker), they've been relying on eating out for many meals. Food stocking is not something they've been practicing because cooking is a significant chore for them these days. Their mayor ordered restuarants to close except for delivery & take-out only a couple days ago and today have their first case. Only a couple days food stored in their condo and the stores are empty.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:46 am
I'm surprised he didn't mention a certain Lombardy leader who downplayed COVID-19 as "just the flu", much like Trump did here.
?
We do have such a genius but Salvini has been out of the government for a while and has no say in the decisions that are taken.
As all western democracies, we have erred on the side of protecting personal freedoms for too long, but I think the government (which I do not like at all, so this isn't out of fandom) acted pretty decisively after that.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

ether wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:01 am
Again not an expert but there has never been a vaccine for the cold since there are tons of strains and it's not super lethal like SARS, so I'm skeptical there will be a cure all vaccine for COVID-19 especially if it keeps mutating as it spreads
Here is an excellent twitter thread by Peter Kolchinsky on the potential to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.
https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/sta ... 7958545410

ether
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ether »

Here is an excellent twitter thread by Peter Kolchinsky on the potential to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.
https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/sta ... 7958545410
This is awesome news that the genome of COVID-19 is pretty simple right now! Also TIL that we have no idea what causes 30% of cold cases!

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Anonymous medical worker from NOLA ... what happens during the ARDS stage, which the respiratory failure that requires ventilation/ICU---about 15-20% of hospitalizations.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-me ... g-patients

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

@jacob
I keep seeing accounts like that from anonymous sources but then look at the statistics of age/comorbidities and the two don't seem to compute. There is a lot of motivation to convince the young to go along with the lockdown. They are disproportionately paying the price for it. I've experienced some hysterics here already.

The proposed mechanism for relief has made me somewhat nervous...

Image

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Ego - Even with the comorbidities, there are bound to be some exceptions that are publishable. It's not inconceivable that these cases are being played up to change people's behavior (similar to the official advice that facemasks for the public are not needed). OTOH, it could also be that the number of young people most of whom didn't take it seriously 2-3 weeks ago is escalating rapidly because thinking themselves invulnerable they've been out socializing and spreading it to each other to a greater degree than the elderly.

I've seen the trillion dollar thing before. It's a way to get around congress's recurrent debt ceiling circus.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin

Add: Also https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -it-can-be ... which bears out the Italian hospital numbers posted upthread. A significant number (20%) of those who are hospitalized are young people (<40yo). They are less likely to go into critical and almost all survive UNLESS they have underlying issues. From a triage perspective, this is good news if you're under 40, because you're more likely to get a ventilator.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

@jacob that was terrifying.

So nothing seems to compute. I’m completely confused about the CFR variation from country to country. It’s like it almost another strain hitting some places. Different immune histories or long term use if prescription meds like ACE inhibitors in some populations? So confusing.

Some get through it and get to talk about their symptoms being flu like. Then there’s this vacuum bottle of pink fluid thing. I saw some videos of ICUs in Italy and saw a vacuum bottle half filled with blood in the background...red not pink. It was like a pint had been sucked out of the guy. They blurred his face but not the bottle. Looked like Spanish flu. :o Part of me was hoping it was a transfusion but it sure looked like drainage.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Sclass wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:21 pm
... the CFR variation from country to country. It’s like it almost another strain hitting some places. Different immune histories or long term use if prescription meds like ACE inhibitors in some populations? ...
The simplest explanation is different testing strategies/capabilities between different countries(*). This screws with the denominator. As testing facilities get overwhelmed priority moves accordingly: everybody > everybody who wants it > those with a history & clinical reasons and anyone they met > those with a history & reasons > hospital, etc. workers > those admitted to hospitals. Denmark moved very quickly (<1 week) from the start to the end of that list as they ran out of testing reagents... which are apparently on backorder from Roche => CFR going up. Conversely, the US didn't start testing much until recently due to regulations, etc. but them ramped up faster than the death count => CFR is going down.

What we really want to know is the mortality rate (what I called true CFR) which dead/(tested positive + tested negative + not tested). The CFR being bantered around is just dead/(tested positive), because more stats aren't being widely/consistently released.

This is why I prefer South Korean numbers (1.1%)(**). Alternatively, plague ship (1.2%), or Vo numbers (1.1%) which are all based on widely tested and contained numbers.

(*) Also because the critical/hospital ratio seems to be 15-20% in all countries whether or not they're overwhelmed as well as death/critical ~ 50%.
(**) I've been using 0.7% so far but just looked at the numbers again and updated accordingly.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@c_L: In response to your question about service industry workers, all of my friends that work in that industry told me they are doing ok. While a lot of their social network is experiencing the same thing, they all have friends who have salaried jobs they can rely on (for many it's there significant other). Evictions are also outlawed in New Orleans right now (or eviction court is suspended at least). Grocery stores are also hiring extra temporary workers, the city is running some relief programs and I think their employers are supposed to be giving them some sort of compensation. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out with small business owners, New Orleans is a small business city and those margins are razor thin.


Is anyone else starting to go insane from self-isolating? I thought a few weeks with my guitars, no air bnbers in my house (which also means an extra room so my girlfriend and I actually have our own space) would be the dream, but it looks like it only took me a week to crack.

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