COVID-19

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George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

ertyu wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:51 pm
@george, tbh at this point the us is one of the countries whose data i don't trust. i trust the quality and integrity of front-line american professionals and scientists but i don't trust the scumbags currently in administration.
Honestly, the biggest problem with the study is that counties aren't reporting the same level of detail. There's no uniformity and CDC had to cull a sizeable chunk because some counties/states didn't report whether cases were hospitalized nor the ages of the patients. Oregon, for instance, is no longer reporting hospitalization status because testing is shifting to private labs.

Edit: Let's put it this way: I'll take fuzzy data over no data. Two sets of fuzzy data that match is not awful. You can also use South Korea data, but, honestly, South Korea data is absolutely not going to apply to the USA because their monitoring methods violate so many laws here. For instance, patient identities are public and their cellphones are tracking location of the patients.
Last edited by George the original one on Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »


Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

My girlfriend's sister's husband appears to have the disease. He's exhibiting all of the symptoms and tested negative for the flu. He's currently just very sick, so no crisis yet (he's in his mid-30s and otherwise healthy). Here's what the process for testing was like:

Go to the doctor and get a flu test.
Results are negative, the doctor tells them that testing is unavailable and that he should quarantine for 7 days.
I'm not sure how, but they were able to find a place that would give them a test.
Wait standing in a line (!) for 3 hours.
The test was $300 (supposedly not covered by insurance).
The results will take 10 days!


Look out @EK, they are located in Memphis.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »


jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@iDave - Yeah, there are even well-known (at least to experimentalists and statisticians) methods to optimize the testing/sampling to get the most useful data. I think part of the problem is a shortage of tests but also a very dynamically evolving situation with various combinations of lock down and self-isolation. Does it make sense to randomly test the population? What would that tell us?

There is a complete data sat from one small Italian town where everybody was tested: https://www.livescience.com/small-itali ... sting.html

After the first death, the town was put on strict lock down, no in or out, and all 3,300 residents were tested. 3% were infected and half didn't show symptoms. Two weeks later, only 0.25% were infected and the remaining cases were isolated. What can we derive from that? 3% of 3300 infected with one dead => True CFR ~ 0.99% given access to ICUs.

Since only half survive the critical stage (known with good data from elsewhere), true CFR in an overwhelmed system is 2%. The other parameter that would be nice to know is the average time between infection and death. If we have this with better precision than "3-4 weeks", this it's possible to estimate a lot based on the death count. We can already estimate hospitalization count based on death rates and knowing how many go into critical.

The question is then what level of lock down is required to stop the spread. We know that South Korea and China's methods worked. We also know that Italy's containment methods prior to March 9th (which are ~ the current US measures) didn't work. This creates a bracket. We've yet to know what the natural saturation level is or when herd immunity is generated. Perhaps the US will be the first test case. Several EU countries are also candidates. We'll cross the point where Italy closed down to the current level 8 days from now, perhaps sooner (US numbers are growing very fast.)

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:59 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:25p Wed, 18 Mar
- 1187 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 66 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 16 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 562 King (Seattle)
- 9 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 56 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 14 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 310 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 167 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 16% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
187 new cases, adding Benton & Clallam counties.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Thu, 19 Mar
- 1376 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 74 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Benton (Prosser)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 1 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 17 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 693 King (Seattle)
- 12 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 2 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 75 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 18 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 348 Snohomish (Everett)
- 9 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 151 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 13% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Also don't trust brazilian's numbers now; we have to wait about a month to get a test unless it's very serious. So the numbers won't be growing much because we can't confirm the cases. The numbers of deaths, on the other hand, are following the 2^X in such a perfect way that is scary, and with a doubling time of ONE day. I don't know what to make of that, I hope it's just an anomaly. But so far we had 1,2,4. That'd be 8 deaths tomorrow, and about one thousand in a week, and then one million in 20 days (april 10 or so) from the day of the first death. I want to believe that is not correct, I hope so.

Meanwhile, people who voted for the current president are raising against him who kept saying it was fantasy and hysteria for too long. The way the virus should be spread by now, it looks like it will be a disaster in this country. We are about 635 officially confirmed cases so far, but people who work in hospitals tell me that the number is way higher. The number of confirmed cases is doubling every three days or so. People are scared and stocking on food. There are long queues in the morning and in the evening in my city I heard, but not in the middle of the day. We will have a humanitary disaster way worse than Italy's and there's only two ways that I see this ending: either Bolsonaro will be impeached or they will declare martial law and enforce strict quarantine. We are nearing the 1st of April. In this date in 1964, the military taking the power in Brazil, in a coup that Bolsonaro have publicly defended as legitimate. It is registered in the books as having happened in the 31 of march, because they were in power and rewrote history the way they saw fit, because it would've been ridiculous to have a coup in the 1st of April. I just hope it doesn't happen again, but I don't have a bright view of the following months. It will be terrible.

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Look out @EK, they are located in Memphis
We’re currently at 10 confirmed cases in Memphis, with confirmed community spread now, so I think we’re going to see a significant increase in local numbers, especially as testing increases. They confirmed an employee at a local Lowe’s had it (and worked); I’m sure there’s tons more exposure.

I’m not leaving the house, and my brother is not invited anymore—they had several people call in with fevers where he works, but they have tons of people call in sick all the time, so I’m putting some of those sick calls down as an opportunity to avoid work.

The insidious thing is that sometimes the symptoms are so mild—an acquaintance (different state) had a slight fever for three days but really no other symptoms. Tested positive, in quarantine now, but no fever and no other symptoms, and he’s in his 50’s. Coworker’s kid ran a high fever for a couple days, had some body aches, but is fine now. He’s waiting for his test to come back, but I bet he’s got it because he tested negative for flu.

I feel certain there are a ton of people out there who are infected but just hanging out at home eating chicken soup and drinking OJ, treating it like any other cold.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

bigato wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:46 pm
Also don't trust brazilian's numbers now; we have to wait about a month to get a test unless it's very serious.
All the numbers aren't going to be perfect because it's too hard to test everyone.
bigato wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:46 pm
The way the virus should be spread by now, it looks like it will be a disaster in this country.
Please take care. We all need too.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

An ER doc I know here in New Orleans got called in today. He said the situation is deteriorating quickly and he estimates the hospital he works at will be at capacity in 7 days if the coronavirus admission rate stays constant (obviously, it's likely to increase).

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

I've been receiving Moroccan updates from the State Department since registering with them a few years ago while traveling there. Today I received this message.
The Department of State and the U.S. Mission to Morocco have arranged special chartered flights for U.S. citizens and U.S. Lawful Permanent Residents departing Marrakech International Airport on Friday, March 20, 2020, beginning at 11:30 am. These flights will include a Marrakech to London Heathrow leg and an onward connecting flight to one of 10 cities in the USA served by British Airways. The $1485 cost of these one-way tickets will include the flight to London AND to one of the 10 U.S. destinations below:

Miami (MIA), Los Angeles (LAX), Newark (EWR), Boston (BOS), Washington, DC Dulles (IAD), Chicago (ORD), New York City (JFK), Seattle (SEA), San Francisco (SFO), and Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW)

All passengers will need to reimburse the U.S. Government for the flight, and a promissory note for approximately $1485 which must be signed before boarding. No cash or credit card payments will be accepted. You will be responsible for any arrangements or costs (lodging, onward destination or local transportation, etc.) beyond your initial destination in the USA. Exact departure time and routing are subject to change.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

jacob, I agree the horse is out of the barn and hunkering down and hiding out is the only hope to minimize how overwhelmed the system gets. Enough people aren't on board that it may be too late for that. Random testing would be useful for several reasons, but won't directly drive a solution. Optimally it would have started immediately. The point he made that I most agree with is that the numbers are imprecise and it puts the people who had/have to make decisions in a bind.

I think S. Korea cast a wide net around positives in their testing, and I suspect people there go home when sent home to self quarantine instead of to the beach for spring break parties. My boss left work on self-quarantine. Her college-age daughter went on a cruise last week (because cheap) and they interacted right before the word came down that any cruise anywhere required quarantine.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »


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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

The contrarian opinion from Stanford epidemiologist John P.A. Ioannidis

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%.

This has been out for two days now. I've seen some criticisms of it but they all seem to fall back on the same phrase they have been using for any opinion they don't like... "there is no evidence to believe..."

Has anyone seen a good rebuttal?

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@Ego

https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10

ETA: From N.N. Taleb
My own review is "Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence".

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »


CajunQueen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CajunQueen »

"A breakdown of known coronavirus cases at the county level appears to show Orleans Parish — home to New Orleans — far outpacing other jurisdictions in COVID-19 rate per capita in the U.S."

Mardi Gras is a season, not just a single day event. I can't think of a better way to seed a city.

https://www.wwno.org/post/new-orleans-o ... ses-capita

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

I keep seeing this simplistic argument about the death rate, but that's not really telling the story.

The death rate is scary but without the likely infection rate it doesn't tell us much. How many are likely to be infected? If we make the, somewhat fucking wild, assumption that the true death rate is 0.125% and then make the equally wild assumption that everyone in the world is exposed and susceptible to the disease then 8,750,000 die.

The abstract death rate isn't even the real fucking problem though, despite the fact that everyone keeps pretending like it is. The problem is hospital overwhelm, which, as far as I know, has happened in Italy and Wuhan. When hospitals are overwhelmed we have to consider the "regular" death rate, the additional deaths due to overwhelm and the additional deaths due to non-corona patients who don't get hospital beds.

The 20% hospitalization rate is scarier than the death rate.

Now add in that the disease is ageist and targets old people disproportionately. I'll go ahead and make the shitty judgement call that this is better than a disease targeting young people, but don't try to pretend like it isn't part of the story and part of the calculations. If the CFR was 0.125%, but 7% of those who made outrageous calculations died, you can be these motherfuckers would be massaging the numbers different direction.

Let's not forget that this has largely been a disease of rich countries...so far. Countries that can afford to pay for the food and rent of people who are out of work for a few months. Countries that have expensive medical equipment. Countries with educated populations where the government is trusted enough to shut shit down and the reopen it again.


@CajunQueen: I have every reason to believe that things are going to go very badly here. Today I noticed that people are starting to take this seriously. FQ still had enough people that I didn't walk through it though.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

26000 Indians might be returning from Gulf countries. They'll be quarantined and even if negative will be barred from public transport.
International flights being cancelled.
Prime minister addressed the nation yesterday. Old people should refrain from leaving the home, don't cut wages or fire absentees, practice self isolation on Sunday, temples and congregational gatherings closed, practice social distancing, cross country trains being cancelled due to disuse and as a precautionary measure, work from home encouraged, government offices in my state working on alternate days in 50% capacity shifts.
Spitting being fined at ~$20/ instance.
About 27% of 163 cases in the nation is in my state (44.) Chief minister declares 'war on the virus'. Isolation chambers are being created and rented from private hospitals.

Clarice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Clarice »

I am under the shelter-in-place order in the San Francisco Bay Area. I am actually going to work every day as I am a healthcare worker. The atmosphere is of complete fear. The pulmonologist in the YouTube video below offers an alternative perspective. It resonates with me. It used to be that 50% of the patients I am dealing with used to have a diagnose of Pneumonia, unspecified organism. Nobody tested them. Ever. Now they all started to get tested for COVID-19. What does it mean though? The interview is in German with English subtitles.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

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