COVID-19

[bigato]

One nurse here in Brazil told me that the cases in the hospitals are already many more than it is showing in the numbers. He is quarantined himself as of yesterday because he got covid19 in the hospital. He estimates that the Brazilian health system will collapse in two weeks, which means abou end of March/beginning of April.

[thrifty++]

Suddenly there are 20 cases recorded in NZ. Its shot up quickly in the last couple of days.

The government has called back all NZ travellers so I suspect we are about to shut the borders.

[TheWanderingScholar]

snip

I hope you stay safe.

[Seppia]

This is fairly amazing, and a confirmation of what I was saying pages and pages ago: since politicians handle (or are supposed to handle) these crisis situations, politics matter.

https://twitter.com/kfile/status/124013 ... 23842?s=21

How much damage has been done in the span of time between the initial stance and the complete 180?

[Jean]

Girlfriend have been sick for the last week (cough, fever, breathing pain for a few days). It seems to be getting better, but one night was scary. It doesn't look dangerous anymore, but she still can't do much. Trying not to catch it is worth the effort.

[ertyu]

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... ov-2-67281

Monkeys develop immunity, there's hope for mankind

[bostonimproper]

Interesting Marist poll, asking a lot of good questions around coronavirus (Do people trust the news, the president, local officials? How have they changed their behavior?). LA Times noted that 18% of those polled have experienced layoffs or had hours cut due to the crisis.

[naturelover]

Community spread in my city. Things are starting to get locked down. Most businesses are closed and a lot of people are working from home. I've noticed in uptick in walkers, runners, and general activity in my neighborhood in the day. Much less plane noise and car traffic as well. I've been gradually pulling back my activities out and about and now am completely social distancing.

I worry that these measures won't last long, as the bills rack up for workers across the country. How long will we go before people just are broke? It's a tough balancing act but right now slowing this spread is paramount.

The attitude the hospital is taking worries me. They still allow visitors, and have a couple *ahem*..problems:

1. Masks are given out if you are lucky. You have to reuse them.
2. Doctors don't want to give tests, even though people present all the symptoms of COVID-19. Something is going on where administration is burying their head in the sand and are hush-hush. Luckily they are cancelling all elective surgeries for the next two months.

I have a barbell, rower, and kettlebells in the basement now. Going to keep up the exercise routine and beef up my conditioning. It will be good to keep my routine. Going to do a bit of running with the dog too. He will be happy.

[ffj]

@Seppia

"This is fairly amazing, and a confirmation of what I was saying pages and pages ago: since politicians handle (or are supposed to handle) these crisis situations, politics matter. "

https://twitter.com/kfile/status/124013 ... 23842?s=21


Anybody that gets all of their viewpoints from Fox News pundits is woefully under informed. Or MSNBC, CNN, etc, etc. You get my point.


The United States government is taking steps to mitigate this pandemic, as well as individual states. We can argue it could have been done sooner or more extensively, but unfortunately we as a planet don't know exactly yet the best measures to take until we get more data on how this virus responds. Somebody will be wrong on their approach but their contribution will be noted and validated in fighting this virus. Different countries are taking different measures and it will be interesting to see who has and had the most correct approach.

This kind of reminds me of the early days of HIV to be honest. There was no internet back then to hyper-intensify every aspect but I remember clearly it was a pretty scary time with all of the unknowns. It would be an interesting study to compare the reactions and falsehoods that were later debunked in regards to that outbreak to the coronavirus.

[mooretrees]

My rural hospital is taking this increasingly more seriously. Visitors for most people (exceptions include birth partners, people picking up folks from surgeries) are not allowed. Temperature checks are required and cancelling most elective surgeries is likely to happen this week.

One new reality for hospitals is that blood donation drives are getting cancelled. This is really serious and scary as a healthcare worker. We are having conversations with clinicians about how to reduce blood transfusions. Once our current stock of blood starts to expire (April 8th at the earliest), I don't know if we will be getting restocked. But women are still pregnant and birth is still a dangerous time for losing large volumes of blood. GI bleeds will still happen to people and other serious situations that commonly require either emergency blood or large volumes of blood to prevent death are still bound to happen. I plan on donating blood if there is still a drive soon. DH is also, and he is O negative which is always a critical blood type. I'm not telling anyone else to donate, but just sharing this behind the scenes reality for us in the hospital.

[onewayfamily]

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

Rate of comorbidity of various diseases from the study:
Ischemic heart disease 33.0%
Atrial fibrillation 24.5%
Stroke 9.6%
Arterial hypertension 76.1%
Diabetes mellitus 35.5%
Dementia 6.8%
COPD 13.2%
Active cancer in the past 5 years 20.3%
Chronic liver disease 3.1%
Chronic renal failure 18.0%

Source:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... italy-says

Study:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... rzo-v2.pdf

[Ego]

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

Originally they had allowed students to remain in their dorms at or local universities until March 22 but yesterday abruptly changed this and told them they had to be out today. They said they plan to use the dorms as well as hotels as makeshift quarantine and/or hospital facilities. Also, we've had two cruise ships in the dock for the past few days. Normally they get out to sea asap as they are charged by the hour for being in port. I ran past them today and saw that they were taking on lots of supplies.

I wonder if they are shifting to a quarantine of those in high risk groups.

[Jason]

This kind of reminds me of the early days of HIV to be honest. There was no internet back then to hyper-intensify every aspect but I remember clearly it was a pretty scary time with all of the unknowns. It would be an interesting study to compare the reactions and falsehoods that were later debunked in regards to that outbreak to the coronavirus.

The first world wide global event processed through social media. The macro diffused into the micro in real time. IMHO, the "scare" factor will turn out to be significant.

[chenda]

China is apparently sending outs lots of aid to the third world, as it has surplus capacity as the virus has abated there. Would the west accept help from China ? Chinese doctors and nurses with extensive experience of the virus ?

[ertyu]

@chenda Italy already accepted 31 tons of medical supplies + 10 doctors. Apparently Italy sent doctors and aid for the Sichuan earthquake. They sent 15 tonnes. China returned double + 1. But yes, this is happening and imo is part of China solidifying its status as the new world power while the US is flailing and floundering. It's ironic that the (US) voter base who professes to be most "patriotic" elected the guy whose incompetence and funding cuts were responsible for this (this = US gradually losing its status as a world leader).

[George the original one]

1. Masks are given out if you are lucky. You have to reuse them.
2. Doctors don't want to give tests, even though people present all the symptoms of COVID-19. Something is going on where administration is burying their head in the sand and are hush-hush. Luckily they are cancelling all elective surgeries for the next two months.

1. Supplies are running out.
2. Not enough testing materials in the USA, particularly as case volume increases exponentially, so doctors are probably saving tests for severe cases. South Korea has performed 300,000 tests and USA has performed only a little over 32,000. Yes, private lab testing is taking place, but they're only able to do about 3,000 tests per day nationally and it will be another week before there's much ramp up (at least in Oregon).

[thrifty++]

@chenda Italy already accepted 31 tons of medical supplies + 10 doctors. Apparently Italy sent doctors and aid for the Sichuan earthquake. They sent 15 tonnes. China returned double + 1. But yes, this is happening and imo is part of China solidifying its status as the new world power while the US is flailing and floundering. It's ironic that the (US) voter base who professes to be most "patriotic" elected the guy whose incompetence and funding cuts were responsible for this (this = US gradually losing its status as a world leader).

But lets not forget where this virus and its predecessors came from - due to the filthy and corrupt third world habits in China. All of this solidifies China's status as a third world country in my mind.

Sending medical support could be the absolute least China could do for Italy given that the filthy habits of China have created this whole problem - again. However people should be somewhat cautious about the extent of reliance on Chinese support, given the lower standards of competence and medical innovation

[chenda]

@ertyu interesting

@thrifty Not sure what 'filthy habits' you are referring to but public health problems are hardly unique to China, nor is it probably helpful to start a blame game...

[ertyu]

@thrifty: also, "trird world" people aren't any less people than you.

[Peanut]

@Thrifty: You’ve been yammering about this for a while. We get it, you blame China and the Chinese. Take a seat next to Trump.

On a more practical note, Osterholm described the close proximity of exotic wildlife in the wet markets as an experiment nobody would ever be allowed to run. I don’t see why China wouldn’t want to start tightly regulating or shut them down altogether. What is authoritarianism for anyway? I’m a little surprised nobody has made this point. Osterholm did also point out that bushmeat consumed in Africa for example would be prone to the same development so getting rid of all pathways to the creation of novel viruses is impossible.