COVID-19

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theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@bankai + steveo I've heard of other companies doing this as well for exactly the reasons steveo suggested. This was what was done across Singapore to maintain continuity of business while significantly reducing the risk.
_ _ _ _ _ _

Thanks for the well wishes everyone. I've started isolating as of last Sunday. I'd stocked up a little while ago and got a few last minute items before the hordes descended at the end of this past week. No more jiu jitsu or any group activities for me. I am still meeting one or two friends at their homes or doing things outside.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

@steveo & theanimal: but it doesn't make sense! you're only reducing the chance of people getting infected by a fraction and it's less effective with time as more people become infected - why not just go with full-time work from home right away? If you have no idea what to do (lack leadership) just model someone who does i.e. google or twitter. I guess I'm really not happy with how my company is handling this as they seem oblivious and lack of leadership is apparent.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Good points. It seems like a more useful strategy prior to virus being prevalent which is how it was used in other countries who were proactive. I agree that widespread working from home makes far more sense where we are at now. If everyone is able to work from home, it doesn't really make much sense to increase the risk by having everyone together just to maintain tradition or whatever.

bostonimproper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

@AnalyticalEngine I've been WFH and avoiding going indoors anywhere for two weeks now. I'll still go for jogs outside, but keep a distance from others. My husband is the weak link in the chain though-- his work requires him to go from house to house like a walking disease vector. I'm trying to convince him to at least wear a mask while he's out and about but I think it's more or less inevitable we're going to catch it sooner rather than later.
bigato wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:57 pm
One interesting piece of information that I just learned. We still don’t know much about Sars2 that is the name of the virus that causes covid19, but we know about Sars1 that you get immunity from catching it, but after three years the immunity is pretty much gone.
Source?

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

And yet, shemp’s comments make me want to puke. Even if the death rate ends up being 1%, that would be over 70 million people in the world. And you think it’s hysterical that the world is trying to avoid this? Is it being too inconvenient to you?
Yeah. This.

My mom's 83 and in a nursing home; they actually banned all visitors even before the state of emergency was called which now requires it. Today, I took some stuff over there to her (she hates the food there and we try to keep a lot of snacks and fruit and yogurt, etc. in her room) and I was told they're not even allowing outside "stuff" in from outside. I'm glad she mentally good so that I can talk to her by phone; I feel sorry for family members who have loved ones that have Alzheimers, etc. who only "perk up" when visited in person.

And... I'm a little worried about DBF. He's 69 years old, and healthy, but he's still in a higher risk category. He was supposed to come visit for a week, starting yesterday, but we decided to cancel. He lives in a small town that doesn't have any cases; we only have 2 diagnosed cases here in Memphis, but that's likely to rise rapidly as we start testing more.

I read a thing today where younger people are calling this "Boomer Remover" and crowing that it's likely to free up jobs to be promoted to and have fewer people getting Social Security, etc. That attitude, even a joking manner, makes me angry. Sure, that 80 year old who dies is a statistic on paper, but it's also someone's loved one, someone's mom or grandma. Yes, everyone dies eventually, but I don't think it's a good thing if they die because younger people are relatively safe and thumb their noses at precautions, etc.

My company is going to full time work from home starting next week. I'm going to be a little lonely, but hanging out at home is never a bad thing to me.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

theanimal wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:47 pm
No more jiu jitsu or any group activities for me.
I love jiu-jitsu but I'm not going again at this point.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

@Bankai - Just to clarify this I completely agree with you. I just think part time work from home is better than nothing. For me personally I will go to work 4 days in 10 and I will only bike ride into work. I will sit in the same seat every day and no one is allowed to sit in my seat when I'm not in the office. No one in my office is allowed to go to meetings in other offices. I just feel this is containing the situation reasonably well. It would be better to WFH full-time and honestly I expect that to happen. I wouldn't be surprise if I'm not at work again for at least 6 months.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

The probability of me being seriously ill due to this in my lifetime is approximately equal to me sleeping with more than one person in my lifetime.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@fiby41 - what are things like in Indai with this? I thought things might have gone to shit there but looking at the numbers it doesn't look like it. But who knows if the numbers are accurate.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

@thrifty schools and colleges shut in 5 states. You could see previous updates in this thread some of which are out of date by clicking posts by this user after clicking on my username.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

theanimal wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:56 pm
Good points. It seems like a more useful strategy prior to virus being prevalent which is how it was used in other countries who were proactive. I agree that widespread working from home makes far more sense where we are at now. If everyone is able to work from home, it doesn't really make much sense to increase the risk by having everyone together just to maintain tradition or whatever.
This may accelerate the the paradigm shift towards working from home that's been slowly gaining ground. Where I live a number of entities, government and private, have begun experimenting with the viability of people working from home (or students studying from home) as a business continuity test. The cynical part of me thinks that once a lot of companies see they can shift the costs of maintaining office space to their employees, they'll be all in.

Working against that is the fact that the majority of people are extroverts and the socializing aspect of a workplace is highly important to them. Hard to have all the pointless meetings via skype or whatever and still scratch that extrovert itch.

In my case all my real work is done in two large laboratories, so working from home is impossible. If I get sent home due to facility closure while the virus is a serious concern I'm not sure how my income will be affected. If I'm effectively furloughed (sent home without pay but still considered an employee) it would be a nice dry run for retirement, but I'm not sure how I'd feel about drawing sown assets while they are losing value anyway.

horsewoman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by horsewoman »

IlliniDave wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:26 am
This may accelerate the the paradigm shift towards working from home that's been slowly gaining ground.
This is my silver lining in this whole mess as well. In Germany a lot of employers are not very open in terms of working from home, job sharing and flexible hour models. Since all schools are closed down for around 5 weeks and everyone knows that having the grandparents take care of the kids is a bad idea, people are scrambling to find alternative solutions for working while having kids. On Friday (the day the closing of schools/daycare was announced) everyone was griping that this was a bad move because now all parents must stay home, blocking the economy even more.
Two days later most employers have found ways to make it happen, either by making working from home, making hours more flexible, or like my employer and husbands, agreeing that we can take the kids to work. Every crisis is an opportunity to grow...

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Sars-Cov-1 immunity mostly gone after three years:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/13/10/07-0576_article

This may or may not apply to Sars-Cov-2 which is the virus that causes COVID19. At this point, we just don't know.

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Covid19: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-ope ... community/

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Bankai:

I agree the death risk is low for young people. I am not particularly worried about my young adult children. In fact, I am working on the assumption that there will be young people post recovery who are able to help in two months.

However, unfortunately, since this is a zoonotic RNA based virus, the odds of mutation and more than one season are fairly good ->>

Also, have you seen the picture of the 67 year old head of medical services in Italy who died? A lot of people who might have had quite a few more good years are going to be victims.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

There has been a lot of talk here (including by me) about those who don't understand exponential growth and are ignorant to what will soon come.

Many here (including me) are insulated by wealth. That insulation makes *us* ignorant to what will soon come.

I am amazed that this is the first major story to touch on it...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/busi ... mpact.html

This is going to get very ugly.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

I did a calculation to figure out how many person years corona virus would cost the US if/when 60% becomes infected and follow the Chinese CFRs.

I used data from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241 ... x-and-age/

Remaining life expectancy for each gender and age group (10 year groups) was adjusted by taking the current remaining life expectancy and replacing it with remaining lifexp*(1-0.6*CFR). Then summing it all up for all the cohorts.

The group the stands to lose the most person years is the 60-69 yo group. The second biggest loser is the 70-79 group. Their odds are higher, but they have less years to lose. The third is 50-59. Same reasoning.

Presuming equal gender death rates, US males will lose 21.1 million person years. US females will lose 27.2 million years of living.

US males and females under 40 will still lose 3.9Myr and 4.1Myr respectively. The 40+ groups will lose the rest.

In actual time, this translates into 6-8 weeks of lost ex ante life expectancy for everybody.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Inverting this, would you self-isolate for 18 months to gain 6-8 weeks of life? Probably the answer depends on how introverted you are, but for most people, my guess is the answer would be 'no'.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

@Ego
yes, the short term consequences will be terrible for the weakest, both in terms of physical health and financial health.
But the financial part, being relatively short term, could be mitigated in my opinion more easily. In italy, for example, they just delayed all tax payments. There's talks of just giving those who lose their jobs a check.

Surely, being in a situation where, should I lose my job, I could probably survive financially at least a couple decades with no issues makes me much less prone to panicking.

wrt to self-isolation, now that it's pretty much mandated here in italy we all practice it. I get closer than 2m/7ft from people maybe once every three days when I go to the grocery store to re-stock.
I'm keeping an inventory of about 2 to 3 months worth of food/essentials, and replenish every three days.
Other than that, we get out at unusual hours for a walk in a deserted city
This was taken yesterday on the way to the post office (I was shipping masks to my wife's parents)
https://ibb.co/NrMgfXr

This is the main square of the city I live in, usually packed with people. This was a saturday at 10.30 in the morning, so imagine what it looks like at 7
https://ibb.co/PCX4Bq6

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Seppia - How's the supermarket situation over there and how did it evolve over time? Empty shelves? Shortages?

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