COVID-19

[AnalyticalEngine]

As far as I understand it, R0 is just the number of people the average person infects. Does it account for the speed in which that happens? Or is that doubling time? I think WHO is basically trying to say containment is technically possible because China did contain it. Now if that's politically or practically possible is another story.

[naturelover]

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion yet, the UK has tested 13,500 people so far and only had 40 positive results.

Cool. I stand corrected (which I'm glad for).

[black_son_of_gray]

I think WHO is basically trying to say containment is technically possible because China did contain it.

Started in China. Now in 70+ countries. I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say that it wasn't successfully contained.

[Ego]

The first positive case in NYC (Manhattan) is still symptomatic but is recovering at home.

Meanwhile King County, WA is purchasing a motel to quarantine those who test positive.

It seems different areas are handling positive cases in different ways.

[ZAFCorrection]

This is starting to remind of radio promotions where the first 5 callers get free tickets. Except this time the tickets are for a (not) free trip to containment theatre. In a few months, people will probably come to terms with the fact that the virus is everywhere, and then the infected can get on with their lives just like anyone else getting over the flu.

So I'd argue prepping should be geared towards getting sick later, not avoiding getting sick at all.

[AnalyticalEngine]

@bsog - Cases have been exported to other countries, but what I mean is they stopped the epicenter from taking over the entire country. That is, they stopped every city inside China from going Wuhan. So what Dr. Tedros is saying is that other countries should be as aggressive as China was to Wuhan in order to attempt to contain the virus.

Now the political or practical ability to be as aggressive as China elsewhere is another story.

@ZAFC - The purpose of early containment and social distancing is to smooth the epidemic peak so not everyone gets sick and goes to the hospital at once. The only thing that can save an individual sans vaccine is herd immunity. Basically where everyone got it but you. So while total avoidance is difficult, they probably won't give up with containment efforts until the epidemic is over in order to smooth the curve.

I'm personally prepping for the effects of containment measures, like being unable to leave, as well as the possibility if I get ill.

[Jason]

Meanwhile King County, WA is purchasing a motel to quarantine those who test positive.

A bunch of Corona cases doing cannonballs of their balconies into a Motel 6 swimming pool. Sounds like a plan.

[Riggerjack]

Well, better than the first plan: stick em in RVs in North Bend. Eventually, someone figured out that it snows in the foothills, and nobody knows how to drive in the snow around here. Hmm... logistics might be a problem.

So the second plan was RVs in Shoreline, a highly populated suburb in North Seattle. Logistics, nailed. Quarantine might not be the right word, though...

The State is trying for mobile homes formerly planned for sheltering the homeless.

I'm thinking about the time these plans fail (that would be Saturday, I'm thinking) they will just give up on isolation, and go with the "go home and good luck" plan.

19 confirmed cases, 6 deaths. No worries, we got this handled.

[bostonimproper]

Today our company told everyone we should cancel all business travel and work from home until further notice. Unfortunately my husband travels around and takes care of children all day for his job, which means if this is spreading in Boston, we're definitely getting it.

Meanwhile, QE will save the markets!

[AnalyticalEngine]

Seattle is 3 weeks away from Wuhan territory: https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/
(Emphasis mine)

We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down.

Interesting paper modeling how China would have gone with and without containment: http://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/36385/pdf
Paper suggests that if China had waited five days later to impose restrictions, damage would have been 3x. If they had acted five days earlier, it would have been 1/3 the damage we say.

The moral of the story?

NPI measures need to be applied as soon and as aggressively as possible. If you wait until things start to look bad, it's often too late. They need to be applied before you think you need them.

[George the original one]

Seems like cases went from Seattle area old folks home to Yakima and Pendleton casinos. Oregon has two more cases in Washington County, one involving a Lake Oswego school (in other words, don't make the mistake of assuming someone's social status is a guarantee of immunity). Cases in New England, too.

Yup, about a month from now, we'll see if Trump and his biggest supporters are singing the same tune about it being a democratic conspiracy and media hype.

By the way, Oregon Health Authority has begun tweeting very transparent numbers if anyone wants to follow the progression.

[7Wannabe5]

Given the fact that it disproportionately takes out senior citizens, it might have a significant effect on politics.

[jacob]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-nasa- ... ced1e.html

Before and after pictures of China shutting down factories to stem the virus. Pollution is estimated to kill ~1 million Chinese annually.

[jacob]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/12 ... 9270688768

CDC quietly removed the number of people who have been tested so far from their website. As has been discussed above (IIRC) one potential reason the number of confirmed cases in the US is so low is that the US has tested far fewer people than other countries. The WHO has been offering testing kits to various countries which the US declined.

[Ego]

@jacob, I was surprised that they were supposedly ramping up the testing over the weekend so it doesn't surprise me that they've removed the number of tested people from the website. I can't see how our system can handle a massive influx of positive patients. Where would we put them all? Right now AFAIK they are telling many suspected but unconfirmed cases to self isolate at home. They will need hospital space for people who are in serious condition. If a person is only suffering flu symptoms then perhaps the ignorance-is-bliss strategy is best. That is, as long as they are willing to self-isolate.

This morning I was talking with a friend who is an MD/Pulmonogist at the hospital down the street. He is not exactly freaking out but he was not calm. I asked about the ability to increase ventilation capacity. He said that normally states can borrow from neighboring states. Apparently that happened a few years ago when all the ventilators in SoCal were in use so we borrowed some from Arizona. He believes that will not happen this time around.

[Ego]

BBC reporting that the WHO now says that 3.4% of confirmed cases have died.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51716375

Granted, this high number is likely due to an artificially low denominator.

[Seppia]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/heal ... s-fda.html

“ In fact, the C.D.C. said Sunday it had shipped about 47 such kits.”

But hey the 50bps rate cut was delivered swiftly.
Italy (a 1.5st world nation) and Korea are testing (for free, obviously) thousands of people per day.

[George the original one]

Shit's getting real for me now. Friend of a friend was a first responder to the old folks home before they were known to be COVID-19 cases. His wife is a schoolteacher. Washington State quarantined both of them yesterday (oops) and is cleaning her school.

Oregon Health Authority is transparently tweeting tests, number of cleared, and number pending. For the state of Oregon, we're into several hundred on those latter two. Much better than Federal response!

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority's twitter account.
https://twitter.com/OHAOregon?ref_src=t ... r%5Eauthor

Sign up for their email or text newsletter for COVID-19
https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts ... =ORDHS_816

Video on when to seek treatment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bknMepfb2uI

[Ego]

Washington State quarantined both of them yesterday...

Any idea on what the quarantining looks like? Are they being kept someone or are they at home?