COVID-19

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George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Oregon governor has closed schools beginning Monday for two weeks. Essentially extending the spring break by a week. Apparently there have been staff shortages this week, which either indicates a fear in employees or a massive outbreak is about to begin.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

@Ego - I support this plan. :lol: Let the lentil bubble commence!

Also I need all of your opinions. So like I said, I'm probably going to get a job offer soon that's a big raise and a promotion over my current role. But I'm concerned about quitting my current job and switching in the middle of this outbreak. Onboarding to a new team during a pandemic is problematic at best. The hiring manager said I could work from home during the outbreak, but so has my current manager. I'm worried about quitting my current role and then finding out the new company has gone on a budget lockdown due to the economic pressure, thus finding myself unemployed. Am I being paranoid here?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

flying_pan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:22 pm
I am in Lane County and I am surprised that we have 0 cases.
There could very well be cases, just that they're staying home and not calling the doctor yet, so not on the official radar. Current status of Oregon cases indicate 50% are hospitalized, yet we know that number should be around only 20%, so we're missing 3 cases for every 2 cases officially reported.

Hmm, okay, that's a little scary!

naturelover
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Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:39 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

I'm really getting irritated by the panic buying. Two weeks ago nobody was even talking about this. They all looked at me very strangely when I cancelled my airplane tickets for the next few months. Costco and Aldi were a shitshow. People cutting others off, hoarding toilet paper (I seriously don't understand that one) and freaking out. I'm concerned myself don't get me wrong. But people stealing PPE from the hospital my wife works at is too much, and selfish.

Our jobs are relatively stable, but I'm considering beefing up the cash fund. I have ~6 months of expenses, but I might cut back on investing a bit so I can feel better. The plan is still to max the Roth and 401k's this year. What do you all think? I work from home but exposure is high due to living with a health care worker. We have the means to both max both those accounts - just thinking of putting the excess into cash vs. after tax account. However, I could take advantage of this and buy extra shares.

@seppia - so sorry to hear about your loss. Hang in there.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

The Brazilian President has tested positive. Trump will soon tweet that "I hear President Virus has a very weak immune system. Weaker than that overrated Tom Hanks and his ugly wife."

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Starting to see terror here among those with incomes reliant on tourism and conventions. Not an insignificant number of people. Real terror. They see themselves as people who have followed all the rules, been responsible, contributed to IRAs and are now envisioning homelessness if they can't get fast access to their retirement accounts. I envision some crazy laws/emergency orders to come out of this.

Roth conversion jubilee anyone. Tenant protections and eviction freezes. Mortgage foreclosure moratoriums.

@AE, It is hard to give advice. Does either company stand to benefit from the crisis? Does either have a stronger foundation? Funding? A history of layoffs?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:31 am
Roth conversion jubilee anyone.
Oh, crap! I haven't done my Roth conversion for this year (the last time I get to do so) and I need enough to meet the Obamacare income. I see I still have enough... barely.

wolf
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Location: Germany

Re: COVID-19

Post by wolf »

Jason wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:25 am
The Brazilian President has tested positive. Trump will soon tweet that "I hear President Virus has a very weak immune system. Weaker than that overrated Tom Hanks and his ugly wife."
the second test was negative, so he says

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

2 in my city.

Nationwide:
Epidemic Act of 1897 invoked.
Sanitizer and masks included in Essential Commodities Act.
Tourist visas were suspended yesterday. All visas except diplomatic suspended until 14th April at port of departure.
Any incoming travellers may be quarantined for 14 days.

I haven't encountered denial although awareness is high mainly due to social media which is also spreading rumours. Joking is being used as a coping mechanism. There is a gap between knowing what's it all about and actually being able to do something about it. If it takes hold there's seems to me to be an underlying understanding that we'd essentially be f-ed.
Things in our favour: 80% of population under 35 years.
Things going against us: poor public hygiene, inadequate healthcare, public transport that is always over capacity. Quarantine is not going to work here.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Listening to Mexican radio stations vs. SoCal radio is interesting. The difference is stark. Weekend events in TJ are going as normal. Right now Mexico has 8 cases. Seems so last week.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

On that note, has anyone read anything worthwhile that suggests the virus does poorly in warm climates?

It seems more convincing that it's just a lack of testing in those areas or due to stronger preventative measures.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Colorado is ahead of the curve. 10% of all US tests have been done in our state. 76 confirmed cases and 8 hospitalizations. They predict we have 100s or 1000s unconfirmed cases. My entire office is on WFH until mid April. 4 confirmed cases of community transmission in Denver.

kevib
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Re: COVID-19

Post by kevib »

Denmark PM mrs Mette Frederiksen: tomorrow 12.00 all borders close. Only cargo in and out allowed.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@theanimal I was thinking maybe the virus has less impact when its hot/warm. But then Australia is only just coming out of summer, and obviously its a very hot place, but the virus has still been taking off there.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:50 pm
On that note, has anyone read anything worthwhile that suggests the virus does poorly in warm climates?
Bankai wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:57 am
Some potentially good news for a change?

https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/ ... mperatures

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:50 pm
On that note, has anyone read anything worthwhile that suggests the virus does poorly in warm climates?
No. on the contrary, I've seen WHO stuff along the lines of, don't hope for it. But if other seasonal flus recede, there might be less strain on the system.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:11 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Thur, Mar 12
- 24 Positives
- 317 Negatives
- 96 Pending
- 252 Currently Monitoring
- 328 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 10 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 7 35-54
- 15 55+

Hospitalized Cases
- 11 Yes
- 13 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 21 No
Easing into a couple weeks of closed schools and gatherings over 250 people banned, Oregon cases are bumped up by a cluster of cases at a veterans' home in Linn County.

Since the veterans were diagnosed early, I expect we'll see hospitalized cases to take a leap soon.

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Fri, Mar 13
- 30 Positives
- 337 Negatives
- 157 Pending
- 316 Currently Monitoring
- 524 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 8 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 10 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 7 35-54
- 21 55+

Hospitalized Cases
- 11 Yes
- 19 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 27 No
Last edited by George the original one on Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:45 pm
State of Washington published count as of 5:00p Thur, 12 Mar
- 457 Positives
- 4350 Negatives
- 31 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor ()
- 3 Island (Coupeville)
- 1 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 270 King (Seattle)
- 2 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 17 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 108 Snohomish (Everett)
- 0 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 46 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 5% 0-29
- 9% 30-39
- 12% 40-49
- 13% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 18% 70-79
- 24% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 57% Female
- 40% Male
- 3% Unknown

Back to over 100 new cases today and infections found in more counties.

State of Washington published count as of 2:00p Fri, 13 Mar
- 568 Positives
- 6001 Negatives
- 37 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 3 Island (Coupeville)
- 1 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 328 King (Seattle)
- 3 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 19 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 3 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 133 Snohomish (Everett)
- 0 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Yakima (Yakima)
- 67 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 10% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 14% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 18% 70-79
- 21% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 55% Female
- 42% Male
- 3% Unknown

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Oregon is about 9-10 days behind Washington state as far as number of infections go. On Mar 4, Washington had 24 cases and Oregon currently has 30 cases. On Mar 5, Washington had 70 confirmed cases (lots of testing!).

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:19 pm
Trevor Bedford did a forward simulation and projected that the King County, Washington cluster will expand to 1100 active infections by March 10 and 2000 by March 15.

Image

We shall see.
Big overestimate, it seems, as reported cases in King County were only 190 on Mar 10. Statewide it was only 267. Now was that due to people taking precautions?

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