COVID-19

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Gilberto de Piento
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

This post says that an air purifier or furnace filter will filter the virus. Maybe you could tape a hepa furnace filter to each opening where outside air enters your unit. I have no idea if doing this will cause other problems, just brainstorming. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/can ... ronavirus/ The source is trying to sell air purifiers so they have a bias.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

South Korean city added fifty new cases today (going from 51 to 104 for SK) believed to originate from a single person attending a church. City gets shut down.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN20E04F

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

My two cents: I would worry too much about getting an air filter. You'd need something high tech like a HEPA filter (what they use in hospitals and airplanes) to make a difference because virus particles themselves are extremely tiny. (70 SARS-CoV-2 viruses stacked on top of each other are only as long as one red blood cell!)

Anyway, the reason I wouldn't worry about air filters is that , again, unlike measles and TB, COVID-19 does not just float through the air. Like other coronaviruses and influenza, SARS-CoV-2 requires aerosol droplet transmission. The virus is in the tiny water droplets you create from a cough or sneeze. These can really only travel 8 feet or so before they fall to the ground.

So if you're truly concerned, you could just stay far away from any air duct that's problematic.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Esh, that Seoul situation is extremely concerning. :shock: That's definitely the point where I would lock myself indoors as long as I could if I lived in Korea. Given that they're not sure how patient 31 contracted the illness (no travel history), and given the fact she just spread it to 50 confirmed + 90 suspected people, I think Seoul is now in the midst of "sustained community transmission." Very concerning. :?

ETA: correction, the city this occurred in is 150km away from Seoul.

ETA2: The WHO did some modeling and predicts the infection fatality ratio to be 0.3%-1%. 0.3% would just be like a bad flu season, but 1% could be quite severe.

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jennypenny
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jennypenny »

genughaben wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:03 am
What I do not understand is, why active case count and its rate of change is relatively underreported. There is no specific graph or map specific about active cases that I know of.
Here's a map. Click on 'animate spread' in the top left corner to watch the spread by date.

Johns Hopkins has a dashboard with current counts

Not sure if that's what you were looking for.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

genughaben wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:03 am
What I do not understand is, why active case count and its rate of change is relatively underreported. There is no specific graph or map specific about active cases that I know of.
I've seen multiple on twitter. One in log scale and a few bar graphs. The log scale shows it flattening out and the bar graphs seem to indicate a peak in new cases within the past week and a half. (both new and old reporting methods are accounted for).

I don't have time now but I'll try and post images of the graphs later. Sam Altman tweeted the one with the log scale.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Server is getting hammered right now and no google cache, but here is the link.....
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 798959.htm

“novel #SARSCoV2 can be transmitted when someone was exposed to high concentrations of aerosol in a relatively closed environment for a long time, according to the country's health authorities”

Similar to the airborne SARS transmission route in the Amoy Garden high rise in Hong Kong?

Image

ETA, we had a plumbing backup similar to this recently so I began treating all of the stacks preemptively with Green Gobbler. So far, good results.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

Actually, there is talk that they think it is airborne (this was said on a broadcast video from a doc in one of the health agencies. I went looking for the video but couldn't find it again.)

If it is airborne, and the events in Seoul would make sense in that light, then those N95 masks are just about worthless - airborne virus can get through that. Also, it can get in the eyes, as someone here already mentioned, I think.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

The respiratory droplets and close contact transmission are the major routes of the coronavirus infection, according to the latest version of the diagnosis and treatment plan issued by the National Health Commission and National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine on Wednesday.

The aerosol transmission was newly added in the plan, which has been updated to its sixth edition.

The aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which can float for long distances and cause infection after inhalation.
Interesting, it looks like the virus went quite far in that HK apartment case. I suppose this also explains the plague ship. If the virus could float under cracks in the door and be inhaled elsewhere. (Of course, plague ship is also explained by the scary lax protocol Professor Iawata described :? )

Now what I want to know is what "long distances" means. Are we talking 100+ feet like TB and measles? 20 feet? Does fecal waste aersolize more readily than coughing?

Note that N95 still might be useful because it filters based off particle size. Aerosolized viruses are floating in the air inside water droplets; they aren't floating alone. So if the droplets are bigger than what the N95 filters, it'll still catch them.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

I don't know the answers to those questions... This whole thing is just, ugh.

This article stepped very patiently through Mortality Rate, versus Case Fatality rate and had some good points about the worrying high number of still critical cases even China is reporting. I found it worth the read. Written by a math guy I believe.
https://medium.com/swlh/the-reported-mo ... 9989c8d912

One family in China lost a son, a daughter, both patents, with the wife's son in critical care. Losing four people in one family does point to a high per case fatality rate. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19

I just agreed to a job in New Mexico in a hospital. I'm starting to think that is really stupid idea.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Hmm, I'm trying to find a primary journal paper or source announcement on the aerosol transmission news, but I can only find secondary sources. Not that I doubt it's more transmissible than we thought, but I also think it's important to stick to primary papers as much as we can because some of the news can sound extremely alarming without context. Not that this isn't scary, because it certainly is very scary, it's just we need more precise information because the virus may be highly transmissible in certain circumstances but not others. Ie, it might travel through water pipes more easily when air currents work out in its favor, but it wouldn't float across an empty football stadium.

Anyway, here's an excellent paper putting together almost all of the known cases in China so far: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id ... a8db1a8f51

What's reassuring about this paper is that the case fatality rate for everyone below 39 years of age is 0.2%. Below 49 is 0.4%. Below 59 is 1.2%. Above 60 is when it starts to get very scary. And it's a whopping 15% for the 80+ crowd. :shock:

The paper also mentions about 1% of cases were completely asymptomatic.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:18 pm
Hmm, I'm trying to find a primary journal paper or source announcement on the aerosol transmission news, but I can only find secondary sources. Not that I doubt it's more transmissible than we thought, but I also think it's important to stick to primary papers as much as we can because some of the news can sound extremely alarming without context.
Agreed.

It wasn't published in a paper. It was a change in the diagnosis and treatment plan of the Chinese National Health Commission.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... scientists
Meanwhile, China's health authorities also said the coronavirus can be transmitted when someone is exposed to high concentrations of aerosol in a relatively closed environment for a long time.

Aerosol transmission was newly added in the latest edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan issued by the National Health Commission and National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine on Wednesday. "The aerosol transmission happens conditionally," Dr Wang Guiqiang, director of the infectious diseases department at Peking University First Hospital, said yesterday.

Singapore's Ministry of Health (MOH) emphasised yesterday the publication recognised that close contact and respiratory droplets are still the predominant mode of transmission for the virus.

MOH said the publication also contained three caveats for aerosol transmission: that it is possible with prolonged exposure, through high concentrations, and in a closed environment.
Prolonged exposure at high concentrations doesn't make sense. Either you are infected or you are not infected. Actually, none of it makes sense.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

As someone with parents in their mid-seventies, this tells me I should quarantine myself for a month after travels before seeing them just to be safe.

Yet another reason to wish to be a twenty year old!

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Rewatching this National Geographic documentary on SARS makes me realize how much history repeats itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-wf_cC0Kek

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Jean
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

CS wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:03 pm
I don't know the answers to those questions... This whole thing is just, ugh.

This article stepped very patiently through Mortality Rate, versus Case Fatality rate and had some good points about the worrying high number of still critical cases even China is reporting. I found it worth the read. Written by a math guy I believe.
https://medium.com/swlh/the-reported-mo ... 9989c8d912

One family in China lost a son, a daughter, both patents, with the wife's son in critical care. Losing four people in one family does point to a high per case fatality rate. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19

I just agreed to a job in New Mexico in a hospital. I'm starting to think that is really stupid idea.
I read somewhere that the virus was using a particular protein to grip onto. This protein isn't produced equally by every human because genetics. So I don't think we can infer the global mortality rate from one family being wiped out.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

China reverted their reporting diagnostics from clinical back to lab confirmed. This is why the new case numbers have looked a bit wonky over the past couple of days.

Also, Korea doubled again. And new cases in Iran.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Car sales down 92% in China for first half of February. I'm astounded the markets haven't been hit yet.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

This morning I bought a used pulse oximeter for $2. Just needed batteries. Got excited when I found two ResMed oxygen devices but then realized they were both cpaps. Still watching for a used continuous bp monitor and one of those thermometer guns. Laying the foundation for the Ego No Mercy Hospital of the Second-Hand Immaculate Conception. ;)

Colibri
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Colibri »

Hahahahaha Thanks Ego for the good laugh about your new care centre project. Now you need to find yourself a title :lol:

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

CDC has called it a "tremendous public health threat" and that future community spread in the US is "very possible, even likely."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020 ... id-19.html

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