COVID-19

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classical_Liberal
Posts: 2283
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by classical_Liberal »

@2B1S
I'll combine three recent threads together for you... Not only should you cancel your trip and spend all the money you would have for the trip on stockpiling medications, face masks, and airfilters. But you should also build a canoe and portage down to the amazon because the only way you'll ever survive to procreate is by joining a hunter/gatherer culture. Good luck. Before you go though, make sure you save 44X your spending, even though money will probably be irrelevant in a few years when civilization falls apart. Now, thanks to me, you're safe.

or you could just, HAVE A GREAT TRIP!

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Seppia »

@2b1s
In Italy we have 20 cases (60 million population), in Japan they have 100 cases (70 on the ship, so 30 cases really, 125 million population), it France another 20 cases (66 million population).

So while I would not take advantage of the amazing air France offers on flights to wuhan, and I am taking additional precautions while traveling (washing hands more often, trying not to touch my face) I will not let my life be too severely affected by this.
There is a small chance I may get infected and die, but I could also be ran over by a cab on my way to work.

Life involves risk, I don’t take unnecessary ones but I’m not going to stop living life in fear of something that, as of today, isn’t such a worldwide disaster

thrifty++
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Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by thrifty++ »

@2b1s - I would go but just stay in western Europe for a while to see how things go before venturing further. I cant imagine how its any different there. There are confirmed cases in USA and Canada anyway

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Esh they found 60 more cases on the cruise ship, bringing the total number of cases on that thing up to 130. If th cruise ship was a country, it's got the second highest amount of cases after China. :?

If I had a trip planned, I would still go, but I'd take precautions. Wash your hands and don't touch your face. Also be careful where you eat. They have a case of it spreading to multiple people during a hotpot dinner for example. And of course, monitor the situation and be prepared for changes if we get another outbreak.

Maybe this is inconsistent though because the incident has made me not consider going on any new trips in the first place. :lol:

bostonimproper
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Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by bostonimproper »

I think we'll have a lot more information about the severity of this and treatment options by March. Which is to say, if it doesn't affect your ability to refund portions of the trip, I'd kick the can down the road a few weeks before making a decision.

George the original one
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Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by George the original one »

BBC.com has a summary of virus stats. I’d link the article, but I’m on my phone and can’t manage it (help i’ve fallen and can’t get up). Maps & charts.

Nomad
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Location: UK

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Nomad »

Stopping flights to and from China has slowed things down but the spread within the country continues and I think it will leak into the countries that it has land borders with quite readily. This could be pandemic in a month.

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

This is pretty long, but if any of you are interesting in seeing how policy makers/government leaders think about this stuff behind the scenes, the Center for Health Security (ran by John Hopkins) ran a tabletop exercise in 2018 with a bunch of folks from Washington to simulate a global pandemic. They made up a fictional disease called Claude X that spread like ncov but had a fatality rate of 10%. By the end of the simulation, the disease had killed 2.5% of the global population and 1/3 of congress, crashed the DOW by 60%, and bankrupt the entire US medical system to the point the government had to nationalize it.

You can watch the whole thing here: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream

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Ego
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Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

False positives and false negatives causing problems.

There are reports that China has revised the way they report positives including only those who swab test positive *and* show symptoms.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/ne ... ssion=true
A botched test result from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Sunday after initially being told by the CDC that they were in the clear
.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

Aspen Institute has a live talk about US preparation on Youtube right now with...

Anthony Fauci, MD, Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Ron Klain, JD, former White House Ebola Response Coordinator
Nancy Messonnier, MD, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

https://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/p ... -pandemic/

Takeaways so far...
>Nothing to worry about today but lots to worry about in the near future
>Public health needs money injection now
>Shortest time for US vaccine is 1 year from now.
>A few big biotech companies lost lots of money on developing emergency vaccines and are reluctant to jump in with this one

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:33 pm
snip
Heard of military tabletop exercises but have not heard of pandemic exercises. Definitely watching this when I can.

ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by ToFI »

Looking at the real time stats on Wechat, the daily new confirmed case number peaked on Feb 04 and it's steadily dropping. It started around Jan 20. By simple extrapolation, hopefully, this trend continues and the total case number will peak around the end of February. and then it'll take a few months to completely clear it?

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Ego wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:38 pm
>A few big biotech companies lost lots of money on developing emergency vaccines and are reluctant to jump in with this one
It is unfortunate if this is how vaccine production decisions get made. Seems like a good place for the govt to provide funding to cover the difference since stopping a virus like this benefits everyone.

Riggerjack
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Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Riggerjack »

Seems like a good place for the govt to provide funding to cover the difference since stopping a virus like this benefits everyone.
Watch the video and the clade x video. Consistently inconsistent government subsidy is the problem as they see it. It's not like this isn't the go to solution for every problem the government wants to address.

Oddly, incentivizing corporations to do as they are told seems to lead to corporations seeking more rent. Let's double down on that. :roll:

But incentivizing individuals to act in public interests is simply beyond comprehending.

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Seems like there's quite the perverse incentives going on in the pharmaceutical company. The director of the CDC even complains about this in the link Ego posted. She said something to the effect of "[pharmaceutical companies] are happy to make opioids [but they won't make the vaccine]"

I'm also reminded of the story of the Lyme disease vaccine. Pharmaceutical companies poured a ton of money into it, and it could have had great public health benefit since Lyme can create significant complications. But not enough people wanted to get the vaccine and so they shut down production. But then these same companies continue to make blood pressure meds and opioids because that's what people buy.

So who's to blame? The pharmaceutical companies who respond to demand? People who create perverse demand in the first place?

The public heath approach seems to be that we just assume everyone will make poor choices and deal with the fallout. To be honest, I can't really blame them. You might convince one person to [do social distancing | lose weight | get vaccinated for Lyme] but in the aggregate, people still go to movies during pandemics and they still eat too much and move too little.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

Study of the first 4000 cases in China. Interesting results:

R0 ~3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05)

Case fatality rates (CFR) ~3.06% with significant gender difference
- Male 4.45%
- Female 1.25%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20021675v1

The gender difference is possibly due to the fact that Chinese men smoke at much higher rates than women.

Image

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Interesting case data. I'm extremely curious how the international cases will compare to it. I do think the sex difference in fatality is probably due to smoking rates, but we'll have to see.

Spanish flu was actually more like to kill men than women too. Unless the woman was pregnant, in which case it was significantly more lethal to women. The human body is an interesting and complex thing.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

If smoking is the cause of the gender death rate differential then it suggests respiratory health plays a big role in survivability. Both men and women in Wuhan experience very unhealthy air quality on a daily basis.

https://aqicn.org/forecast/wuhan/

That may explain why it is not nearly as deadly outside of China.

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by classical_Liberal »

@Ego
You beat me to the punch! I was about to suggested the same thing.

I still think the number of actual cases is probably underreported in China due to a lack of primary care infrastructure/culture. This same issue can tie into people who are getting really sick. Those people may have an undiagnosed chronic condition or comorbidity (due to no primary care), which had not reached the level of symptomatology that would drive them to the hospital for diagnosis or treatment prior to the infection. Like initial stages of COPD or CHF. Respiratory infections exacerbate these chronic conditions and significantly increase mortality rates for even a common cold. https://www.webmd.com/lung/copd/emphyse ... is-colds#1

Edit: wrt mortality rate, this kind-of begs the question of whether people are actually dying from Wuhan coronavirus, or from complications of COPD.

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Sclass
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Sclass »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:40 pm
Interesting case data. I'm extremely curious how the international cases will compare to it. I do think the sex difference in fatality is probably due to smoking rates, but we'll have to see.
.... The human body is an interesting and complex thing.
Yeah this is interesting. I had this crazy thought today that a few Americans and Canadians who got this have already recovered. Made me wonder if there was something Chinese specific about the symptoms.

How about exposure to different infectious diseases during childhood oversensitizing the immune system?

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