COVID-19

[fiby41]

Italian acquaintance in Milan says not just Lombardi but entire Italy will be under lockdown until 3rd April. Shops are open but bars and restaurants must close by 6 in the evening and not later. And of course museums, stadiums and so on are all closed now. Life is going on as usual. A large part of the Italian population is old, so hospitals are full!

[Ego]

I previously mentioned the article in Nature that said that chloroquine is an effective antiviral (in a test tube) against the 2019-nCov. I began researching quinine extract in case it happens to prove effective. Looks like a scammer may have started selling a fake quinine extract containing zero quinine on all of the major outlets (Amazon, Walmart.com, and ebay.) Fortunately quinine is fluorescent and someone decided to check with a black light. Buyer beware. Does anyone have a cinchona tree in their yard and willing to share some bark?

In other news, the former head of the FDA (under Trump) says the U.S. is past the point of containment and that we are wasting effort trying to contact trace and contain. He says we should graduate to aggressive mitigation around outbreaks.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 007417002/

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Mon, Mar 9
- 14 Positives
- 165 Negatives
- 52 Pending
- 226 Currently Monitoring
- 291 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County (County Seats)
- 1 Douglas
- 2 Jackson
- 1 Klamath
- 1 Marion
- 1 Umatilla
- 8 Washington

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 7 55-74

Hospitalized Cases
- 5 Yes
- 9 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 11 No

New serious case in Multnomah County.

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Tue, Mar 10
- 15 Positives
- 213 Negatives
- 67 Pending
- 232 Currently Monitoring
- 295 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 1 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 8 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 8 55-74

Hospitalized Cases
- 6 Yes
- 9 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 12 No

[Lucky C]

I don't use Facebook much but have seen two, and only two, COVID-19 related posts thus far. They were from two different high school level educated millenial males, living in the Northeast. One was posting a meme of "The CEOs of Purell and Lysol right now" showing them (not the real CEOs) laughing and popping champagne. The other was a sarcastic comment under a local news channel's update on the number of confirmed cases in the state, something like "wow that many in the ENTIRE state? but flu kills..." followed by other comments along the same lines.

I'm guessing I'll know someone who has died from this within the next couple of months.

[Bankai]

Ties in with recent thread on maths - very few people understand compounding. I can even see this at my workplace where most people have relevant degrees.

[Will]

Found this on Twitter, a very scary message by an Italian ICU physician in Bergamo, translated into English.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236 ... 96129.html

[Seppia]

Found this on Twitter, a very scary message by an Italian ICU physician in Bergamo, translated into English.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236 ... 96129.html

My dad is a doctor in a city less than an hour away from bergamo.
The account linked above made "il corriere", the largest newspaper in the country.
Dad (for what is worth) says:
1- the situation is tense but definitely not "warzone-like".
2- doctors have to make decisions like those mentioned daily. It's not so rare to be in a situation where there's X life support machines and X+1 patients.
3- of course he remarks that these things evolve quickly, so what is under control today could be out of control in 24 hours. They are preparing for the worst.

I'll keep updating.

Anecdotally, here in Northeastern italy, streets are almost empty, supermarkets have few customers (all with full carts), but no shortages yet.
Restaurants have approx 1/20th of the usual number of customers.
TV ads about what to do (wash your hands, keep 1m distance, etc) run extremely often.
People are finally taking this seriously.

[Smashter]

My wife works from home in the midwest but goes on quarterly work trips to NYC. She got there two days ago, and is planning to cut her trip short and come home tonight.

The city is totally business as usual, and her co-workers are not worried at all. Her boss thinks that the news is blowing things out of proportion and "fear mongering." But we don't care. She's coming back tonight.

The news that they are locking down New Rochelle was the last straw.

I think it was irresponsible for the company to even ask her to come. The trip was not essential in the slightest. I wish I'd been more forceful about asking her to say.

Interestingly, her coworkers are all from France. I wonder if they tend to have a more cavalier attitude about this stuff in general? It's a tech startup, and from what I can tell most tech startups are taking aggressive work from home measures.

[tdurtsch]

Massachusetts declares state of emergency

https://www.wcvb.com/article/governor-c ... 04?src=app

[bostonimproper]

I think it's interesting that in a few instances I've seen case distribution skewed older than population. Some of it is oversampling of severe cases, I reckon. But I wonder if young people may also be knocking out this disease before infection takes hold at sub-diagnosable viral loads.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 2p Mon, 9 Mar
- 162 Positives
- 1149 Negatives
- 21 deaths

Cases by County
- 1 Clark
- 1 Grant
- 1 Jefferson
- 116 King
- 1 Kitsap
- 1 Kittitas
- 4 Pierce
- 37 Snohomish
- 0 Spokane

Cases by Age (damnit, they switched to percentages from absolute numbers)
- 2% 0-19
- 5% 0-29
- 10% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 15% 50-59
- 21% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 19% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth (damnit, they switched to percentages from absolute numbers)
- 55% Female
- 42% Male
- 4% Unknown

Over 100 new cases confirmed. Snohomish and King counties are just busting out with confirmed cases, with Pierce county now taking off.

State of Washington published count as of 2:28p Tue, 10 Mar
- 267 Positives
- 2175 Negatives
- 24 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 190 King (Seattle)
- 1 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 1 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 16 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 54 Snohomish (Everett)
- 0 Spokane (Spokane)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 4% 0-29
- 10% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 14% 50-59
- 19% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 22% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 56% Female
- 42% Male
- 2% Unknown

[steveo73]

I'm guessing I'll know someone who has died from this within the next couple of months.

I think that this is very unlikely and even if true it's likely to be someone who is much more likely to die of the flu for instance an older person.

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

I think the coronavirus has killed over 4000 people now. Most people have mild symptoms.

At this stage it doesn't look too bad but I'm a rational person who tries to look at the facts. If you are someone who gets emotional or paranoid (my wife) then I suggest you don't read the news or read threads like this.

It's only a new virus and it could mutate and become much worse or lots of things could happen. At this point though it doesn't appear to be so bad plus it's being taken seriously.

[theanimal]

5 confirmed cases and 1 death in South Dakota.

Yikes. I would no longer be surprised if it's in every state.

[jacob]

I don't use Facebook much but have seen two, and only two, COVID-19 related posts thus far.

I have a couple of wonks in my feed who are as much into it/informed as this thread, so I've seen a lot but some^H^H^H^Hmany of the comments they're are getting are @#$@$ exasperating

It's generally a combination of...

• "Why [should I be inconvenienced from going out] when it only kills old people?" (unaware of carrier status or doesn't care about spreading it to others)
• "I'm not afraid of getting it. I'll just stay at home and eat some soup." (compares it to regular flu)
• "It's just a few percent." (unaware that it will spread to most of the population/doesn't do multiplication)
• "Worst case, a few percent will go to the hospital." (doesn't realize that hospitals have nowhere near the capacity to take in "a few percent" over a short period)
• "Not the end of the world." (fair enough, but usually this one is combined with one of the other statements.)
• "Nothing is happening now but people are hoarding toilet paper" (doesn't grok exponentials, also strawman) (come to think of it, I've mostly seen toilet paper memes)
• "I'm mostly annoyed by all the panic. Think of the children!" (fundamentally doesn't want bad news at the rate it's coming. This one is very common.)
• "I just want to focus on happiness and spreading it to others. I'm a hugger." (and also eloi burger)

I think of all of them the "I don't want to hear anything alarming" type is the most stubborn. It is a big reason for the inertia in the public and political response when people operate under the expectation that tomorrow should be much like today following the same rules. Humans tend to learn and deal with their world at a linear rate but epidemic news happen in exponential time. (Human traders have a hard time dealing with algorithmic traders for the same reason. It's just an alien opponent outside most people's experience.) It's only 19 days ago that Italy had the first fatality and some 60 cases at the time. Now, there are 10000+ cases and 600+ dead.

Threading the needle of public messaging is hard: If you say a "few percent will need critical care" people tend to underestimate because a few percent sound like a small number... but if you do the multiplication and say "millions will need critical care", you're being alarmist because a million sounds like a lot---because it is. And so on ...

I think humans simply tend to operate under the "meta-rule" that "the rules don't and shouldn't change"---with some trying to actively and socially enforce them. Most will, therefore, only accept that the rules have changed when it's right in their own personal face, like the constant TV ads Seppia mentions, or having police checkpoints at county exits, contact tracers knocking on their door, or hearing that their neighbor's grandfather is in ICU.

[George the original one]

Yikes. I would no longer be surprised if it's in every state.

Probably only a few days away from having confirmed cases in each state.

I'm currently annoyed at Nevada. Their health department last issued an update on Mar 3 and in that time they've gone from 0 to 4 confirmed cases. Their COVID-19 page just points you to the CDC web site for updated info Since probably all of their cases are in Las Vegas, I suspect they're trying not to scare off their tourism.

[theanimal]

Alaska is doing the same thing. Governor called it a momentary glitch yesterday and said they have been widespread and aggressive with testing. 47 people have been tested so far...

With CDC recommending against taking cruises, China banning group travel and oil prices dropping off a cliff, AK economy is entering the toilet.

[George the original one]

Meanwhile, in California, geez... Sacramento, Placer, & Yolo counties are no longer quarantining!

The Sacramento County Department of Public Health announced Monday it has moved past trying to contain the virus and is now hoping to mitigate its impact as new cases are reported. Placer and Yolo counties also announced they are shifting strategies in stopping the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.kcra.com/article/14-day-cov ... y/31334725

[AnalyticalEngine]

I had said Peak Prosperity was being too alarmist. I officially take that back. They're on the ball with criticizing the abysmal response by US authorities.

[jacob]

Perhaps it's a mistake in phrasing public messaging in terms of exponential growth, CFRs, hospital capacity, etc. and trying to walk people through that. For example, with investing it was eventually realized that rather than trying to educate people about their investment options, hoping they'd pick the right one, it was better just to auto-enroll them in a target date fund and let them opt-out instead if they wanted something else.

Maybe when talking to non-wonks or those who are mangry (math angry) or ideologically driven, it's better to communicate the evolving situation as a decision tree (flow chart) in terms of what different countries have already done taking advantage of not being the first.

Step 1) When the first cases arrive a country can either test like crazy (like South Korea) and likely succeed in hunting down the infected before community infection takes over; OR they can try to play it down like Europe or ignore/hide the data like China in which case community spreading will take hold.

Step 2) If community spreading takes hold, a country can either clamp down strongly like China which demonstrably results in a control case rate... or they can take a measured approached like the US, Norway, France, Italy, etc.

Step 3) When the moderate measures fail, and the health care system is about to get overrun, the country can either lock down like Italy or ...

I guess the rest of the story is still being written. I guess we'll see how it worked out a few weeks from now.

Or perhaps people find themselves unable to relate to the experience of other countries because of national exceptionalism? Actually, that will probably be the case. Back to the drawing board.

[Bankai]

Is the US health care system the least suited to handle a situation like this? Incentives are just not there, right? If you don't have an insurance and have symptoms, you aren't going to the hospital because you can't afford the bill. Instead, you keep spreading. Similarly, people with high deductibles are more likely to disregard symptoms as 'cold' or 'flu' until they get really bad while spreading in the meantime. Perhaps national ('free') health care and a bit of central planning might have an advantage here?