COVID-19

[jacob]

WHO insisted it wasn't transmissible from human to human ...

That's rewriting history somewhat. The WHO confirmed human-human transmission on January 20th which was several weeks before the countries or political parties who are now trying to pin it on China started taking it seriously. "Piddly virus" and all that.

This is just the blame game playing out.

In all fairness to the medical scientists, the human-human vector for the first SARS-Cov1 in 2003 was rather weak and mostly occurred in healthcare settings. Ditto MERS. It doesn't require any conspiracies that this was also the initial assumption for SARS-Cov2 before human-human was confirmed. Experts probably should be better at saying when they don't know, but OTOH, the public and politicians expect certainty even if it's not always there. It's also difficult to know what one doesn't know insofar one has not considered the possibility. Since coronaviruses previously had low reproduction numbers, this was likely not the first thing they were looking to confirm.

[steveo73]

It's amazing to me that there isn't a global uproar forcing China to fix their food safety and sanitation laws.

There has to be. They can't keep getting away with this crap. Here is the problem though. My Chinese-Indonesian friend at work reckons people have been eating bats for years. This goes on all over the world and it really should stop. That will entail trying to fix world poverty as well as China having to stop the terrible wet market and exotic animal trade that for some reason they like.

[steveo73]

It doesn't require any conspiracies that this was also the initial assumption for SARS-Cov2 before human-human was confirmed. Experts probably should be better at saying when they don't know, but OTOH, the public and politicians expect certainty even if it's not always there.

Yep. We all to be cognizant of the uncertainty surrounding this virus and any other virus. People don't react quickly to shutting borders because it's such an extreme event. Of course it should be done quickly but how many false starts will there be.

[jacob]

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

This implies 73-88% infected to achieve herd immunity. Ugh!

[Ego]

I predict a run on Faraday bag sales.

https://blog.google/inside-google/compa ... technology

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Thu, Apr 9
- 1321 Positives
- 24306 Negatives
- 44 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 109 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 50 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 44 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 20 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 33 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 49 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 235 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 302 Multnomah (Portland)
- 29 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 11 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 311 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 29 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 31 19 or younger
- 141 20-29
- 203 30-39
- 245 40-49
- 237 50-59
- 241 60- 69
- 138 70-79
- 84 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 13 20-29
- 19 30-39
- 46 40-49
- 50 50-59
- 91 60- 69
- 63 70-79
- 41 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 326 Yes
- 872 No
- 123 Not provided

Sex
- 711 Female
- 602 Male
- 8 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 294 Available adult ICU beds
- 2237 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 90 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 189 Available pediatric beds
- 794 Available ventilators
- 400 COVID-19 admissions
- 105 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 64 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

50 new cases.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Fri, Apr 10
- 1321 Positives
- 25853 Negatives
- 48 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 116 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 51 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 4 Hood River (Hood River)
- 44 Jackson (Medford)
- 17 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 24 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 34 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 49 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 246 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 317 Multnomah (Portland)
- 29 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 11 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 320 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 28 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 33 19 or younger
- 148 20-29
- 208 30-39
- 254 40-49
- 245 50-59
- 246 60- 69
- 146 70-79
- 91 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 14 20-29
- 20 30-39
- 48 40-49
- 51 50-59
- 92 60- 69
- 64 70-79
- 46 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 338 Yes
- 924 No
- 109 Not provided

Sex
- 736 Female
- 629 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 296 Available adult ICU beds
- 2203 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 89 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 182 Available pediatric beds
- 797 Available ventilators
- 353 COVID-19 admissions
- 93 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 58 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[George the original one]

I predict a run on Faraday bag sales.

https://blog.google/inside-google/compa ... technology

Isn't it just as likely people will just get new phones so their number is no longer known?

[Tyler9000]

That's rewriting history somewhat.

Here's the full timeline. The WHO's initial claim that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission came 5-6 weeks after the first evidence of human-to-human transmission.

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morn ... ting-lies/

[slowtraveler]

@Tyler9000
Thank you for the timeline. Very informative.

@Ego
If people are getting to that point, I'd think foil would be the cheap alternative.

[Ego]

@Ego
If people are getting to that point, I'd think foil would be the cheap alternative.

Agreed, that is the ERE version. A real faraday bag (probably foil lined) only costs $4.50 on ebay.... for now. The next toilet paper.

[thrifty++]

Iceland's testing (the highest per capita in the world) shows that 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic. But they don't know yet whether those people remain asymptomatic.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ic ... spartanntp

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Wed 8 Apr
- 9608 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 446 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 215 Benton (Prosser)
- 41 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 11 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 194 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 21 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 13 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 93 Franklin (Pasco)
- 99 Grant (Ephrata)
- 7 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 151 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3884 King (Seattle)
- 122 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 18 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 18 Mason (Shelton)
- 12 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 808 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 173 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1702 Snohomish (Everett)
- 230 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 16 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 240 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 427 Yakima (Yakima)
- 908 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting
Apr 6 91 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 94 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 90 hospitals 639 COVID-19 patients, 181 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 28% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

279 new cases. Looks like Washington has rounded the curve! Hospital reporting updated with different numbers. Washington also added statistics for ethnicity, so please see the bottom of their page if you're interested: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Thu 9 Apr
- 9887 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 475 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 234 Benton (Prosser)
- 44 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 11 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 208 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 21 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 16 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 107 Franklin (Pasco)
- 100 Grant (Ephrata)
- 8 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 154 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4047 King (Seattle)
- 128 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 12 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 18 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 18 Mason (Shelton)
- 14 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 831 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 174 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1743 Snohomish (Everett)
- 245 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 80 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 18 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 247 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 447 Yakima (Yakima)
- 848 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 36% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

[Peanut]

@7w5: It sounded like a nightmare to boot. Not trying to convince you to go back, but I finally finished reading this article today (March 30, New Yorker; Peter Hessler, "Life on Lockdown"), and while it is a few weeks old and Hessler notes that "nothing is definitive," he shared an interesting take by Dale Fisher, a professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist:

"The role that children play in this process remains unclear. Fisher pointed out that there's no evidence that they have helped spread the disease in China or elsewhere. The W.H.O report noted that, during the mission's nine-day trip, none of the Chinese medical personnel who were interviewed could recall a case in which transmission occurred from a child to an adult. 'My view on schools is that children aren't at risk of severe disease,' Fisher said. 'They don't amplify the spread, they don't amplify the transmission. They are kind of bystanders while it goes on. There's no good reason to keep them out of school, unless the society is in total lockdown. I'd rather see just a modification of school activities.'"

Singapore and Taiwan (barring a two-week holiday extension) did not close schools.

[plantingourpennies]

Here's the full timeline. The WHO's initial claim that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission came 5-6 weeks after the first evidence of human-to-human transmission.

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morn ... ting-lies/

Article is from a source that is known to be biased. Even a quick google search shows that the WHO had confirmed human to human transfer and alerted hospitals globally on the 14th, roughly two weeks after China alerted them of the virus. On Jan 5th and 14th WHO relayed what China had reported to them, calling the data preliminary and citing China as the source.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-h ... SL8N29F48F

Another 2,000 people died today in the US and conservatives are trying to shift blame to China or the WHO.

[Tyler9000]

Article is from a source that is known to be biased.

It's fully sourced on every point direct from peer-reviewed journals, reputable publications, and the WHO itself.

[slowtraveler]

@plantingourpennies

You didn't read the article. I was impressed to see so much quality citation. Straight from WHO's Twitter on January 14th*, same day as your article claims WHO said something different without any citation:

World Health Organization (WHO)
·
14 Jan.
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China.


*https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1 ... 9427761152?

[thrifty++]

Safest to least safe countries during covid19 pandemic - apparently.

https://www.dkv.global/covid-19-health-safety

Its getting a bit old now. Things change so fast. 2 April. I would have thought Australia would be higher up the list. But its improved a lot in the recent days.

[2Birds1Stone]

That's a pretty terrible list, and many countries are missing all together.

[thrifty++]

@2birds1stone. Yes agreed it is quite a shitty list. Its the only one I have come across so far though.

Israel is a strange pick being at the top. As is Hong Kong given its part of China. I would have picked NZ, Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Iceland, Greenland, Singapore and not sure what next.

[J_]

I reported earlier abut a 40 ish family in the village we live with two children who were all Covid infected, stayed isolated at home and who recovered all in about 3 weeks. The parents are still working to improve their condition. Children were hardly sick.
Yesterday I spoke to a couple beginning 60 ish in this village who were also positive tested and recovered in their home in about 4 weeks. The wife has been rather sick, the man hardly. I met them on their first day walking outside their home. For her it will take another couple of weeks to improve condition she told me.

So I get the impression that, given a good health, be not on any drugs, a state of fair fitness and ease are your best ways to survive this (not so deathly for healthy people as hyped) virus.

As Jacob and others earlier noted the changes are worse if you are not in a healthy shape, as we all seeing around us. Antifragility pays out!