COVID-19

[Campitor]

All the more reason to.

Agreed. But this is why Darwin Awards exist. We were told to stay home because of COVID. Then we were told protesting was worth the risk of COVID. This opened the door for all kinds of rationalizations for ignoring COVID best practice.

Those of us who knew better stayed home regardless the reasons for skirting quarantine and social distancing procedures. You can't blame the sheeple for acting like sheeple when media encourages sheepling.

[jacob]

Has anyone seen any indication of N95 masks becoming more widely available to the general public?

[Campitor]

Has anyone seen any indication of N95 masks becoming more widely available to the general public?

I've seen N95 masks (various models and prices) available on Amazon. Locally they are flying off the shelf but they are available if you happen to beat the crowd of shoppers. Everyone seems to know now when the mask shipments come in now.

Retraction: the Amazon masks are K95 and not N95.

[Seppia]

Aeroplanes seem high risk

Airplanes are equipped with extremely efficient HEPA filters that filter the air every two minutes.
It’s closer to traveling in an open seated car than in a train.
Of course your own car is safer

[Jason]

"Boeing, you can breathe easier."

[Riggerjack]

Airplanes are equipped with extremely efficient HEPA filters that filter the air every two minutes.

Planes do filter the air. But some jets have very limited filtration. 737's filter as slow as 10 cu ft per minute. That's about 1/8 the speed of the typical bathroom fan, divided amongst the whole plane. And it all goes through the little ducted fan overhead. So if you want filtered air, open that nozzle all the way. But you will notice a drop in flow if everyone else does the same.

[Seppia]

Thanks for the info

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

@jacob: https://accumed.com/n95-mask-for-sale-r ... sk-z1.html
https://cardomedical.com/product/3m-aura-1870-plus/

I purchased 20 from AccuMed, have not tried Cardo. Neither site inspires a ton of confidence. I did receive the 20 masks and don't think they're countfeit/defective, but I didn't test exhaustively.

[fiby41]

Section 144 imposed by police commissioner of Mumbai.
It prohibits presence/movement of 1/more person/s in public place/gatherings between 9pm to 5 am for 15 days.
Local trains won't run until 12th August.

Lockdown in the state of Maharashtra extended upto 31st July.

National recovery rate at ~60%

[FRx]

The news media reports now are mostly about how there are clusters of increased infection rates in such and such community. It seems that the same sentiment is reflected in this thread.
Though it's media worthy, there is nothing unexpected nor significant from a clinical or public health perspective. As we ease restrictions the virus will spread a little faster among those who are susceptible.
Many will remain fairly resistant to "catching" it. Many will have very mild or non-existent symptoms. And very few will have serious consequences.

As for masks and handwashing, we have a hard enough time getting doctors and nurses to do it. It's a very tough culture shift, which means that it'll only be moderately effective.

The goals isn't to prevent the spread of the disease. That's not possible. So any argument towards that effect seems counterproductive based on the knowledge I have as a physician.

[classical_Liberal]

Good post @FRx!

Many will remain fairly resistant to "catching" it. Many will have very mild or non-existent symptoms. And very few will have serious consequences.

Agreed

The goals isn't to prevent the spread of the disease. That's not possible..

Agreed, but maybe possible to "manage it", like you would a chronic health condition.

As for masks and handwashing, we have a hard enough time getting doctors and nurses to do it. It's a very tough culture shift, which means that it'll only be moderately effective.

Back to the chronic health condition analogy. It's much easier to get someone with HTN to take their ACEi or ARB than it is to get them to change their lifestyle via diet and exercise. Sadly, this is just the way it is. I look at masks and handwashing as similar solution to "taking your pill" on the public health front. I think people are much more open to a small change if they get to keep living their lives the way they want.

[chenda]

The goals isn't to prevent the spread of the disease. That's not possible. So any argument towards that effect seems counterproductive based on the knowledge I have as a physician.

Could you expand on this as my non-medical understanding is that this is exactly the whole point of the lockdown ?

[FRx]

Great points. I suppose I have the perspective of seeing western medicine as a science which claims to be able to manage all health conditions. And yet most of us physicians couldn't offer up a convincing definition of what health is.
I hope that you are right, that we can one day manage this disease the same way we manage other viral conditions. Since there are very few viruses which we can manage, I guess I am skeptical.
I hope I am not painting a bad picture of western medicine. Just saying that in this regard it still has a lot to prove before claiming that it curtail a coronavirus infection.

[FRx]

hi @chenda
I believe the headline pieces and talking points are all about preventing the spread of the disease but that is only possible if humans don't come into contact with each other, whether directly or by proxy.
That's an impossibility. The actual scientific reason was to slow the spread and not to halt it. Enough to give science a chance to catch up in managing or vaccinating against the disease.
There is a turning point in real medicine where you then risk stratify each patient and decide who is at risk and who is not. Those not at risk can benefit from inoculation. Those who are at risk can either be infantilized and forced to stay home or choose to expose themselves to the disease.
Since we allow people to drink alcohol and smoke cigarettes and not exercise, I am confused as to why we're imposing limitations on their contact with others.

[classical_Liberal]

I hope that you are right, that we can one day manage this disease the same way we manage other viral conditions. Since there are very few viruses which we can manage, I guess I am skeptical.

Yeah, I agree. What I meant by “manage” in the analogy is limiting the spread of COVID to the extent healthcare has the ability to provide the best possible outcomes to those who get it. Those possible outcomes will vary based on many things, like age and overall health. Also treatment availability as we get more options through research studies. But if everyone who gets it is given their best chance, that’s about the best we can do. If we can get people to make a few small changes to keep it controlled, that’s a good thing.

[tonyedgecombe]

I believe the headline pieces and talking points are all about preventing the spread of the disease but that is only possible if humans don't come into contact with each other, whether directly or by proxy.
That's an impossibility.

Yet that is exactly what happened with SARS. The basic reproduction rate of 2 to 4 was reduced to 0.4 by introducing control measures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_ac ... ansmission

[jacob]

@chenda - cL and FrX being in the US health system are talking about the mitigation strategy (protect the vulnerable, social distancing for the elderly and other vulnerable, home quarantine of infected, reduce peak health demand). The lockdown is part of the suppression strategy (reduce R0<1, reduce case numbers to low or nonexistent levels, social distancing for everybody, travel bans, stay-at-home orders, special (not home) quarantine of infected and suspected cases, contact tracing, maintain until a vaccine is found).

The suppression strategy was eventually pursued by almost all countries with more (New Zealand) or less (US) success. Mitigation puts the onus on the health care system. Suppression requires the collaboration of multiple institutions (including the public) in the entire or at least most of the country/enclosed area. In the US, suppression is still the chosen strategy in some states (particularly in the North East) but not in others depending on the culture and political situation in the given state. See here https://covidactnow.org/?s=60387

Here's a short video explaining the difference between mitigation and suppression (first five minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McuPw52_DNA

The median country started with no strategy (high R0>1, low infection numbers). Then things got out of control (high R0>1, high infection numbers) and it switched to suppression to get it under control (low R0<1, low infection numbers). But this was economically pricey, so it switched back to a mitigation (low R0>~1, rising infection numbers) while keeping the eye of the ball (the infection numbers) and being prepared to lock parts down again (to get R0<1 if infection numbers get too high). The median country is taking a pro-active approach watching that R0 number very carefully essentially letting it guide policy.

PS: Before we restart the old argument/eternal disagreement again, I'm just describing what was done and why it was done. Not what should have been done or what would have been "best" for a given situation.

[George the original one]

USA county level map of rolling 7-day per capita new COVID-19 infections. Also button for world infection rates.
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics ... ppression/

You can show individual states by putting a checkmark in their box on the left.

***
Note how the Sweden experiment continues to have the worst infection rate in Europe, 3x higher than the next worst country (Portugal) and 7.25x higher than Great Britain.

[C40]

Current state in Vietnam:

• 355 total cases ever
• 335 of those have recovered
• All 20 of the current cases are Vietnamese people returning from abroad. All were quarantined upon arrival (everyone entering is).
• There have been no 'community' cases of covid for 80+ days.

• Yesterday the government announced the total Covid-related cost this far. I think it was 178 million USD. Plus, they also did some economic impact support of about 480 million.
• Now all types of businesses are fully open. They have been promoting domestic tourism. I have been seeing many tourists from other parts of Vietnam. It's hard to guess, but I'd say tourism is up to maybe 30% of previous level. Or... perhaps lower, because I'm comparing it to January and February, but summer is the busy season here. All the businesses like restaurants and such seem to be back to normal business levels, except for those that were heavily focused on tourists.
• No non-Vietnamese are allowed to enter the country, except for pretty small amounts of people for specific work reasons, negotiated by their company. All those entering get tested and quarantined for at least two week. If positive, they get treatment (at no charge). They release someone after they have sometimes 5 or so negative tests. Those entering for business purposes have a lot of regulations. I think they may have to test before coming. Then they get quarantined and tested here.
• Most people here have, in large part, 'moved on' and forgotten about Covid. They are back to normal life

IMO... this is all a very obvious example of how effective a more collectivist society is in handling things like this. Sure, the government has some hiccups, or delays in updates, but overall they have acted on-time, deliberately, with clear communication. Most of the citizens here followed the regulations. They only needed a light lockdown for about 3 weeks. Schools were closed longer, for 1-2 months.

I knew things would not go well in the U.S. because of the highly individualistic society and because of political side-taking. It is very telling seeing this play out in comfort from a country that did almost infinitely better, with much fewer resources. Vietnam started with a society and government suited to fight a virus, and the U.S. started with societal and political challenges, but with a fuck-load more resources. Looks like the U.S. leadership and many citizens have made an idiotic and immature fuck-up of colossal proportions.

I'm starting to wonder if I should do something to get temporary residence here, so I don't end up having to go to another country, or back to the U.S sooner than I want. I think I could start a company for quite little money, or pay visa agents to bribe people at immigration to give me a two-year temporary residence card (It's sort of a combination of them also supposedly making me an employee at some shell company.. I'm not sure how much of the job is a real fake job vs bribes.... I think I've read reports of the agent/shell company/bribes route somewhere around $1500)

[nomadscientist]

It's interesting how many Asian countries have wiped the floor with the whole West yet in the public mind (over here) they somehow aren't real places.