COVID-19

[classical_Liberal]

ERE isn't really about winning, it's about not losing. We shouldn't be afraid of the pitchforks exactly because we aren't on any pedestal. My life looks like any middle class person's, I don't stand out and purposefully try not to.

In a world full of economic crisis I'm seriously contemplating quitting a high paying, now more than ever, in demand career because it doesn't bring me joy anymore. That's the stability (not losing) that ERE has brought my life. Pre or Post COVID, it's mostly the same. While I feel for those more affected, I'm certainly not super emotional about it. I think it's intellectually stimulating to read the opinions of so many smart people about such a complex issue, but don't really have much of a personal vested interest in the outcomes.

Thanks to our stability, we can act according to our personal opinions on this subject. I can go out and spend money on other people at local businesses. Others can isolate as they are more fearful for their personal health. Meaning that we have more options to live what we believe than simply venting in an online forum.

These are the gifts of ERE, IMO.

I think J+G is just a bit surprised that so many folks here have gotten really emotional about this topic when, if practicing ERE, they are likely in the same boat he and I are, no significant personal ramifications to lifestyle. We're not losing.

[classical_Liberal]

@ZAF
Yeah, the ease with which social controls were placed are a scary thing. I actually mentioned this earlier in the thread. Although, even the educated populace (ie those not overly influenced by media propaganda), were pretty scared of this thing at first. Me included in that number. So I think that's part of the reason it happened.

Personally, I live in one of the few states that never did a full shelter in place, but in a metro area that spans a second state that did. So maybe my concern level is lower due to my personal experience? It's not like there were cops out enforcing, or national guard at the state borders. My job went on either way. So although these were orders, it's not like I wasn't able to still go out and do my thing uninhibited.

[theanimal]

ERE isn't about risk aversion in the sense of explicitly avoiding all negative scenarios but preparation for such scenarios by building resiliency and antifragility into one's personal life through a web of goals approach. It is literally designed with societal collapse in mind. The book really is worth reading at least once.

[ZAFCorrection]

I didn't finish the book. Does it also hope for societal collapse?

[7Wannabe5]

I am curious to know how those of you who are engaged in the wishful thinking of .1% fatality rate and 70% herd immunity would explain the fact that 91 humans out of total population of 100,800 humans have already died of Covid in the zip code* where I currently reside?

*Fairly affluent suburban area north of Detroit

[classical_Liberal]

@7WB5
Age

The best estimates I've personally strung together based on state reported data is that 0.1% fatality is probably about right for the <50 age group. Add in the 50's and it about doubles the total, the 50's alone are about 0.4%. Add in 60+ and you get to the 1%ish total. Taking only the 70+ crowd it's approaching double digits. This is an extremely ageist pathogen.

[7Wannabe5]

@c_L:

Nope. Very popular area for affluent young families due to availability of relatively inexpensive McMansions. Booming school district. Median age in county is 37.

Based on your numbers, fatality rate for 55 year old females would be approximately .27% and fatality rate for 55 year old males would be approximately .54%, right?

[Jason]

@ Jason

What part of the social contract is that in, again?

Our society is based on asymptomatic sacrifice. It always has been. Today is only different, in that different demographics are being sacrificed.

The part that exists before the social contract is effectuated i.e. a Hobbsesian vs. Lockean state of nature which is essentially an argument as to whether man has natural rights before the social contract takes effect or whether the social contract bequeaths said natural rights. Where one falls on that issue is mostly based on a positive vs. negative view of man. The difference is evidenced in the differences between the French Revolution vs. US Revolution. Obviously we (US) are Lockean.

All you are (repeatedly) doing is providing is a laundry list of how the social contract is ineffective in its ability to cure all the ills of beastly (or semi-beastly) men forced to live together in a political society. Welcome to the club. As Winston Churchill stated "Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others." Its failings does not explain away the irrefutable fact that social contract theory is the basis of our political institutions and their authority to create public policy. However, because you do live in a country that is founded on social contract theory, you, as well as the other members of your knitting club, as participants in the contract, are afforded certain avenues to address your discontent in how the social contract is being practiced. I am assuming you know what those remedies are or at least where to find them. That being said, it is your prerogative to continue to deny the fact that you live under and are subject to the social contract. I personally would find that a difficult position to maintain, especially while voting, paying taxes or forced to stay in inside my house for a months on end.

I have no idea what you mean by asymptomatic sacrifice. But whether is falls into behavioral theory or social theory it is the not the basis of consent of the governed, separation of powers etc. It may provide an accounting of the forces that challenge the efficacy of those concepts, but as I am not versed in the idea, I can't confirm/deny.

[BMF1102]

7w5 - A quick google search shows 4,020 CV19 deaths in Michigan with a population of 9,960,000 equals death rate of .... drum roll please .0004 aka .04%

You made the decision to quit your job to better protect yourself from said virus. Yet you seem to be staunchly against everyone else making a decision for themselves?

[7Wannabe5]

@BMF1102:

Obviously, the epidemic hasn’t infected as many people in Michigan outside of Detroit metro. My conservative estimate is that we are at 10% population infected in metro area = 10x confirmed cases = approximately 1% fatality rate for those infected.

I think people should make their own decisions but they shouldn’t delude themselves. If you are a 55 year old human choosing to purposefully expose yourself to this virus is approximately equivalent to choosing to board a mid-sized airplane knowing that you or one of the other passengers is going to be blown out the window.

[BMF1102]

7w5 - I like your analogy. Yes that is the risk they take yet I have seen and continue to see many... well aged people making the decision to go out do their thing with and without masks. I assume they have seen all the data and are comfortable with the risks. Perhaps if our death rates climb to levels seen in your area they might be more prone to laying low. The choice should be theirs to make at this point though.

[7Wannabe5]

@BMF1102:

I think you greatly underestimate the innumeracy of the American population. Oh well, cull the herd...

[BMF1102]

I do not. I simply hold their right to choose higher. Perhaps you're right and they can not make a good decision on their own so anyone who does not have a certain IQ or does not score high enough on some test should just be transferred to a "safe community" where they are not allowed to make decisions but instead have their days/ meals etc planned out for them. As long as they do what they're told they'll be perfectly safe and well cared for. That sounds like the solution, no?

[7Wannabe5]

The earliest American social contract was itself influenced by terrible epidemic. The founding fathers were greatly influenced by the egalitarianism exhibited and freedoms assumed by the adult male members of the Native American tribes with whom they interacted. However, these interactions took place at a juncture after the social structure of the tribes had been greatly altered by the decimation of their populations due to smallpox and other scourges.

Rule of thumb is that experienced social freedom is proportional to population density. A respiratory virus that requires social distancing to combat will perversely cause the feeling that we are now more crowded together. Still, I think it is ridiculous that some people are threatening gun violence because asked to wear a mask in a grocery store; like they never saw a “No shoes. No shirt. No service.” Sign prior to Covid. Like preventing spread of food fungus and covering your man tits is just good manners, but preventing communication of deadly virus is an outrage.Like they are now reincarnated members of the last Nobility with birthright to ride horses across all lands, dropping big gobbets of shit along their path.

@BMF2100:

No. What I meant by “cull the herd” is that I don’t care anymore if the obnoxious stupid people die.

[BMF1102]

That sounds a bit fanatical and conspiratorial. I simply believe the situation is walking a fine line with a slippery slope.

[7Wannabe5]

Stupid people will never suffer any natural consequences for not believing in evolution. Most stupid people will not suffer natural consequences in their lifetime for not believing in global climate change. More stupid people will suffer natural consequences for not believing that Covid is deadly. I’m okay with that.

[Ego]

88K Americans die each year from alcohol related causes making it the third leading preventable cause of death. How many "smart" people drank last night and woke up grouchy this morning?

Ban alcohol?

[Jason]

The earliest American social contract was itself influenced by terrible epidemic. The founding fathers were greatly influenced by the egalitarianism exhibited and freedoms assumed by the adult male members of the Native American tribes with whom they interacted. However, these interactions took place at a juncture after the social structure of the tribes had been greatly altered by the decimation of their populations due to smallpox and other scourges.

I studied under Howard Zinn. Well, you really can't study under him because the only thing he footnotes is his own opinions. He was a communist. And a complete asshole. This is not history. This is an agenda. And specifically, his agenda. This is the most papered period in world history. There are no documents indicating that the Founding Fathers were influenced by any traditions, intellectual, political or otherwise. that did not originate within the Western Tradition which holds to a completely distinct worldview than the pantheism of Native Americans which directly conflicts with the philosophical foundations of English social contract theory that was developed more than 100 years before the Founding Fathers arrived. Similarity in organizational forms can be merely coincidental.

And calling this guy "stupid?" Good luck holding your own with him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuEaJDksxls

[jacob]

ERE is systems thinking applied to personal strategy. I believe Jacob developed it under the condition of being skeptical of the effectiveness of government policy towards addressing climate change.

Ehh.. no. When I wrote it I was more concerned about reductions in the resource (per capita) variable than the pollution variable. This is why the ERE blog can be thought of as a peak oil blog in disguise. (I was rather active in the peak oil community during 2000-2005). However, it was not a given how such a crisis would unfold and how the world would reorganize "during and after"---turns out making specific predictions about the future is really hard---so the aim was towards individual resilience and flexibility, so that those who followed the principles could adapt to pretty much anything or at least as much as possible. The ERE book aims at developing people who won't be zombies (dog whistle) after a systems shock such as this one [CV19].

Neither the book nor I have much in terms of opinions of how the system should be. I find such [normative] discussions to be mostly a waste of time. ERE can be thought of as "basic training" for dealing with any collapse but specifically economic collapse. That's also why the focus is on economic independence (as measured by low spending, spending being a measure for one's dependence on the economy) rather than financial independence which just comes about as a trivial side-effect. However, just as basic training makes one physically fit and able to perform better in any situation, ERE makes for a more interesting life regardless of whether the system is collapsing or not.

I'm not hoping for any kind of societal or economic collapse, but I am glad I'm somewhat or rather prepared for it. The FI part is nice too. I'm also glad to see that the ERE principles worked for CV19 judging by how many here remain largely unaffected. It's almost embarrassing in a way.

PS: I am somewhat bummed that out of all the ideas presented in the book, the majority take-away was the FI part and the savings-rate to years-to-FIRE calculation and not the renaissance ideology which is what would be really helpful now. But people took the stuff they could easily apply to their own situation and ignored the rest ...

[7Wannabe5]

@Ego:

I hope you are not implying that I might be grouchy this morning due to drinking too much. I only have maybe 5 drinks a year. I am grouchy this morning due to sports injury suffered during course of my reading marathon.

Anyways, if a drinker acknowledges true risk of cirrhosis and makes choice in alignment with his judgment of utility then he could still be “smart.” Trying to convince yourself that risk is less because you want to do it is “stupid.”Also, society does not allow a drunk to drive a car on public roads while inebriated.