COVID-19

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1taskaday
Posts: 463
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:45 am
Location: England

Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

J_ you and Ego's posts are my road map for living and full and fulfilling life.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Sweden update: Death count revised up by +10% (as the numbers filter through).

Some more detail on the numbers which confirms other countries.
90% of the dead were >70yo, 50% were >86yo, and only 1% were <50yo.

Comorbidities:
79.6% hypertension
48.5% cardiovascular disease
29.0% diabetes
14.6% lung disease
14.4% none of the above

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2147
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

I think it's unfair to label hypertension a risk factor. Because almost everyone over the age of 70 who has seen a doctor has that diagnosis. It's like saying grey hair is a risk factor, or any other condition that correlates with old age.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3364500/
Data from the Framingham Heart Study, in men and women free of hypertension at 55 years of age indicate that the remaining lifetime risks for development of hypertension through 80 years are 93% and 91% respectively[6]. In other words, more than 90% of individuals who are free of hypertension at 55 years of age will develop it during their remaining lifespan.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

@J

Did you have to carry a lot of baggage when you walked between Austria and Germany?

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:26 pm
So well said. There must be a name for this.
The name is unidimensionally.
classical_Liberal wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:39 pm
This is why a technocracy run by scientists will never work. Deferring to expertise in an ultra-specialized society means the scope and scale of societal interventions are looked at unidimensionally (I think I just made up a cool new word).

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:33 am
I think it's unfair to label hypertension a risk factor. Because almost everyone over the age of 70 who has seen a doctor has that diagnosis. It's like saying grey hair is a risk factor, or any other condition that correlates with old age.
I agree, except, these numbers are comorbidities and we already know that it's mostly people over 70yo who are dying. Therefore the comorbidities are already conditioned on being old. Thus if you're 70yo+ and have hypertension, you're in trouble. If you're 70yo+ and have "none of the above", you'll most likely survive. For these comorbidities, age is thus a confounding factor rather than a collider.

TL;DR - I take it that comorbidities are not intended to infer the entire population but just count the people who actually died. Sampling bias seems inherent to the definition [of comorbidity]??

J_
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:12 pm
Location: Netherlands/Austria

Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

@sky: only a backpack each (and a bag with food/water for the 14 hours train-trip). We leave most of our clothing and sport gear in our Austria apartment.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

steveo73 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:47 pm
In Australia the Chinese ambassador basically threatened us with trade sanctions because we said questions need to be asked about China's role in this pandemic. We also said that there needs to be a transparent investigation.

This is not going to be easy.
My understanding is that Germany was completely fed up with them beforehand.

China has been masterful in playing the US identity politics. They know we now live in a society where we can't say anything negative towards any class of people. Because they had convinced people they aren't truly communist anymore, when something like this happens, any criticism against them is perceived as racial. If Trump said "Communist virus" as opposed to "Chinese virus" people might take a moment just to think about it. There are over 350K Chinese students in the US. Is it really that far fetched to think some are government operatives taking what they learn here and using it help Chinese industry and governments when their own doctors disappear? I mean everyone says they just copy our shit. We're probably assisting them . But you cannot even allude to the possibility. I think it will change when this gets under control.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

The problem is that the average US SJW doesn't know the basic facts about China and their form of government.

BTW - I just saw a video of the basic swab test. I'll take the virus, thank you.

Jin+Guice
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Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

Have those of you who are going out noticed that people aren't staying in anymore? Starting this past weekend, I've noticed way more people driving around and on the street. Mask compliance is slightly higher than before (around 20%) and social distancing compliance is about the same.

In the least ERE news I can provide for you fine people: the hair salon I go to went out of business :(. I talked to my friend who owns a local coffee shop chain (3 stores), a coffee roaster and a clothing/ jewelry store. She says she is just hanging on by a thread (they are doing coffee delivery). New Orleans is almost all small businesses, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out here.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

jacob wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:00 am
TL;DR - I take it that comorbidities are not intended to infer the entire population but just count the people who actually died. Sampling bias seems inherent to the definition [of comorbidity]??
Right, but if >90% of everyone over a certain age has a specific comorbidity, it's basically just repetitive to list it as a comorbidity when dealing with an infectious disease that targets geriatric populations. The idea is misleading. IOW, basically everyone over a certain age has HTN, so of course when they die it's a comorbidity. It probably has nothing to do with why they succumbed to COVID. That happened because they were old, and the cluster of health events that accompanies old age as a natural process of the human lifecycle.

So no, if they are part of the massive minority that don't have HTN (ie probably just not diagnosed) the are probably just as at risk, unless some specific correlative evidence beyond guessing comes into play.

In general, non medical scientists (many on this forum) have this tendency to think of direct causation wrt to health or health care treatments. This generally just isn't the case, healthcare science has too many confounding variables.

Also, thanks for the Maths answer a couple pages ago. I Haven't had a chance to get back to the forum until today.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:33 pm
Have those of you who are going out noticed that people aren't staying in anymore? Starting this past weekend, I've noticed way more people driving around and on the street. Mask compliance is slightly higher than before (around 20%) and social distancing compliance is about the same.
Winter finally let up around my home and I've had basically the same observations. I don't think people would cooperate with a longer term lockdown, even if it was mandated at this point. There is a huge winter hibernation effect up here... and it's over. Incidentally, our COVID cases are ramping up.

OTCW
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Re: COVID-19

Post by OTCW »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:33 pm
Have those of you who are going out noticed that people aren't staying in anymore? Starting this past weekend, I've noticed way more people driving around and on the street. Mask compliance is slightly higher than before (around 20%) and social distancing compliance is about the same.
I go to the office one day a week with four days home. The commute in this morning was as busy as I have seen it since this started.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Only 2 new cases of virus in NZ today - one confirmed one probable. This is the lowest daily increase so far.

Total cases are 1474 but 348 of those are only probable.

This is day two out of lock-down. Or the lesser lockdown. All non contact business has resumed. Things have really come back to life more than I expected them to. Huge queues for takeaways. Lots of people out on the road in cars. Its still a semi-lockdown though - with lots of restrictions.

Schools re-opened yesterday but only 1% of children attended. Its optional. Most parents are still too scared to send their kids back to school.

1229 cases have recovered so only 226 active cases now.

19 deaths but no serious/critical cases at this point in time.

2.7% of the population has been tested now.

Govt announced a couple of days ago that there have been no more cases of undetected community transmission. Meaning that the govt knows exactly where all new cases are coming from at this stage.

George the original one
Posts: 5366
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

According to this article, no state has yet met the 14-day guideline. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Alaska, Montana, and Hawaii have at least met the spirit of the guideline as their new case weekly rates are at 22 (or less), so a small cluster of 5 cases will distort the trend.
"The reality is, we have to find ways of doing business that are a little different," he [Michael Wolfe, Duke University]said. "There needs to be a real introspective look at the way we reopen, because this is not over. It's not over for the rest of 2020, to be quite frank."
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /24142686/

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:29 pm
One to file in the unexpected and unintended consequences...

People accidentally poisoned by household cleaners spike since stay-home order


https://katu.com/news/coronavirus/peopl ... home-order
Word of warning - they're looking into " pool cleaner" guy's wife. Turns out she previously attacked him with a bird house.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/homicide- ... loroquine/

den18
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Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:14 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by den18 »

What do we think of the perspective in this article: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... M9BPXuXkd4

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

@den18: yeah, that's pretty much the 'cure is worse than the disease' argument which is one side of the discussion in this topic. It only gets stronger with time as we get more data on the virus, revise IFR down, and realise just how much damage the lockdown will cause long-term.

den18
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:14 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by den18 »

@Bankai: Yes, I am leaning towards that perspective. Are there counterpoints or data that shows the other side? I would be interested in learning more about them. No one wants more people to die, but even just the cancelling of medical services and early screening feel like they will cause a lot of harm.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Each time we return to the US after long trips abroad we've been struck by the ever increasing level of indulgence provided to the anxious and the fragile. The rapid rise of emotional support animals and the banishment of nuts from every school have been surprising but little more than shrug-worthy. Though I have to admit, it has been rather comical when the pet-allergy people and the emotional support animal people showcase their competing weaknesses for control of dorms or airplanes. But the changes have been incremental and rarely rose above the level of an eyeroll or two. Until now.

https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusi ... lity-check *
We’ve been stampeded into a regime of social control that is unprecedented in our history. Our economy has been shattered. Ordinary people have been terrorized by death-infused propaganda designed to motivate obedience to the limits on free movement. We have been reduced to life as medical subjects in our condition of self-quarantine. As unemployment numbers skyrocket and Congress spends trillions, the political stakes rise.

The experts, professionals, bureaucrats, and public officials who did this to us have tremendous incentives to close ranks and say, “It is not wise to tell people that the danger was never grave and now has passed.” Sustaining the coronavirus narrative will require many lies. It will be up to us to insist on the truth.
We just experienced a precedent, the first nationwide example of the tyranny of the weak and afraid. Rights were violated in an effort to suppress the virus. Clearly the government has the right to quarantine those who test positive for Covid. What is not so clear is whether the government can quarantine those who were not positive. But it did. And nobody complained much. So the next time around it will be modus operandi.

Trouble is, the next time around it may not be used in defense of the weak and anxious. It may be used against them.

*Yes, I am acutely aware of my strange bedfellow.

Locked