COVID-19

[Bankai]

@Seppia: think of the scope. If you don't wear a seat belt, you're: 1) very unlikely to get 'caught', and even if, 2) there's only a small monetary penalty (unless repeated offender), and 3) it doesn't ban you from participating in public life, you can use another mode of transport. None of that is true for face masks: 1) you're very likely to get 'caught' and 'reported' by fellow 'concerned' MOPS since it's clearly visible; 2) penalties are going to be severe since it's for 'the greater good', and 3) it practically forbids you from going outside of your home.

[jacob]

This will very quickly devolve into a discussion about guilty by commission or guilty by omission. See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem Not wearing a mask is more like driving under influence or driving without functional brakes since it puts others at risk as well as increasing the risk for oneself. Driving without seatbelt mainly increases personal risk.

One might speculate if people's behavior would change if an infection could be traced from the infectee back to the infector who might consequentially be charged with involuntary manslaughter should the infectee go ahead and die. We do this for car accidents. With such direct consequences, people would probably rethink the mask issue. Yet as no such direct linkage can easily be established, the damage one might inadvertently or irresponsibly deal to others is easily ignored. It becomes an externality of the legal/ethical system.

[Seppia]

"Wearing a mask" obligation has none of the racial/religious characteristics of the examples Bankai made.

I see every restriction of personal freedom (ie wearing a seatbelt, a helmet, can't drive faster than Xkm/h etc) has to weigh how bad the restriction of liberty is VS the potential negative impact it prevents.

So we generally decided it's better to prevent a high percentage of head injuries /fatalities and the associated social and economical costs at the cost of the freedom to ride helmetless.

If wearing a mask materially diminishes the spread of the virus, I think the inconvenience of wearing a mask is a much smaller price to pay and I think you'd have a tough time convincing most people it isn't.

[Jason]

IMHO only place this is enforceable is a communist or totalitarian country where the armed forces could be mobilized for execution (pardon the pun) and a culture of fear is operative. In democratic/republican countries, I see it as unenforceable. It will put too great a strain on local authorities and will raise tensions further. Government recommendation and subsequent peer pressure is best you can hope for. Even if someone puts a "No mask, no service" on the window of their small business you'll get a civil liberties lawsuit in US. Plus there have already been documented cases of profiling.

In the US you will get states rights issues. Motorcycle helmet in US vary from state to state with age often a determinate. But ultimately, if you are over 21 you can ride a motorcycle without a helmet in 22 states.

[jacob]

Denmark update: News are no longer almost 100% corona-related. The virus is "dying out" and most virus-interest has turned to what's happening in the rest of the world, especially the US. Parents complain about kids being forced to wash their hands or use handsanitizer multiple times a day in school leading to raw hands and crying children. (Some are suddenly learning the value of hand lotion. Maybe there will be a shortage soon?) There's talk about sending the 9th graders back to school (that's the final year before switching to HS or a trade school). Politicians are no longer as united as they used to be with some beginning to complain about unnecessary fear-mongering and overreactions (as predicted). Police has had to deal with loitering and crowds gathering at public venues again. This is mostly clowns failing to understand that "it's still a crowd when there's 400 people gathered on the plaza even if you're only out here drinking and sunbathing with 9 of your friends". Such behavior is now awarded with immediate fines of ~$400 as tolerance for continual stupidity has gone down. Testing has ramped up with 1 in 42 having received the test at this point.

Cumulative death rate: 7.2/100k or 1 in 13888.

[Jin+Guice]

Re: Denmark & Other Countries/ Regions that Crushed the Virus

Won't the virus just be worse here when the rest of the world reinfects the country/ region? These regions now have less immunity (assuming that immunity works) and more vulnerable people who haven't been killed off. Will these regions stay closed to outsiders and quarantine returning residents forever?

[jacob]

@J+G - The massive testing capacity that is being rolled out should allow for a suppression strategy. If people realize it's a good idea to run around with masks as well as engage in other virus thwarting behavior like working more from home, avoiding nose picking, and not going to work sick, it will make R0 smaller than it was before all this started. IOW, the goal is to become more like Taiwan or South Korea after hitting the reset button with the hard&fast style lockdown.

[JCD]

Went to home Depot and Lowe's today. Fewer masks, less caution, more like BAU among the customers. Employees were following social distancing and masked, though. - Riggerjack 

Police has had to deal with loitering and crowds gathering at public venues again. This is mostly clowns failing to understand that "it's still a crowd when there's 400 people gathered on the plaza even if you're only out here drinking and sunbathing with 9 of your friends".  - jacob

Having been in Greece, a nation considered to have done well in an early lock down, particularly given their economic hardships, has started to change in interesting ways.  In the early days, when I walked to get groceries, there was nearly no one out and while lines existed to get into the grocery store, everyone was reasonable, stayed 6 ft apart, etc.  Regarding masks, I see only about half the population using face masks, so it doesn't seem odd seeing unmasked people.  All that said, seeing people gathering together in relatively large groups seems odd, but...

Over time the security around grocery stores, to limit the number of people in at a time, has become more relaxed.  In the past few weeks, I have noticed more children playing outside and more people not keeping distance.  In one park I passed through to get from the grocery store back home, I saw maybe two dozen people, sitting near or playing near each other.  This park is not large, maybe half to a forth of a soccer field in size.  
I had one woman get in my face two different times recently, once to ask me about a product and another time to exchange large bills for small bills at the grocery clerk desk.  To add to that, I see more traffic on the roads than I did a few weeks ago.  It seems like spring fever and the anticipation of an announcement of opening back up has been enough to get people to come out and they are not being as careful as I'd expect.  I'm curious if others are seeing similar behavior besides the protests.

Also, according to npr, after the Spanish flu curve was broken the first time, people quit obeying authorities the second time a lock down was put in place:

"Social distancing... As the number of people being infected slow a bit... [governments] overturn those requirements... of course another wave is coming and with the arrival of another wave the government wants to put back in place... and the people are much less compliant, much less interested in following the rules... if it didn't stop it last time, why bother to try it again." - Historian Nancy Bristow @ ~20-21 minute in https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/82006621 ... man-nature

I get that history rhymes, not repeats, but given the early reports on this forum, the protests and history as a guide, if this takes 1+ years to solve this pandemic, how many people are likely to die from the second or third wave?  What is an appropriate set of precautions to take if everyone else choose to not take precautions?

[Jin+Guice]

@jacob: Do you know what the situation is like in SK or Taiwan? Are there any virus related enforced policies or are they only suggestions? Are they allowing foreigners? Is there a quarantine for visitors/ those returning to the country?

[jacob]

@J+G - For Taiwan, there are very many [suppression] enforcement policies which have been in place since January and thus the economy remains open. Borders were closed in January. Mask production was ramped up in January as well. Everybody wears a mask in public. Spreading virus misinformation is punishable. Hoarders are fined. Masks are available to everybody for $0.25. People are tested and retested and quarantine is strictly enforced ($10,000 fine) if testing positive followed by contact tracing. People are getting paid leave to care for corona sick. Schools remain open unless a positive is found in which case everybody is sent home for 14 days. Government provides $600/month to furloughed workers. Taiwan also has universal health care. They did all this two months before the rest of the world. This was based on previous experience from SARS-1.

The country has had 429 cases and 6 dead (0.03/100k or 1 in 333,333).

SK is following a similar policy based on similar experiences. If it hadn't been for "patient 31" (the super spreader in the church), their numbers would be much better.

[Seppia]

HK, another place that’s doing well (zero new cases for 5 consecutive days last week, then I stopped checking), also has similar policies.
You can only go there if you’re a resident, and if you’re coming in from abroad they attach a GPS bracelet to your wrist and ask you to stay home for 14 days.

What if you need a doctor? You call, they send you a driver, and they take you to the hospital.

What if you need to buy groceries? You call, and they’ll bring whatever you need to your door

[Peanut]

It seems like spring fever and the anticipation of an announcement of opening back up has been enough to get people to come out and they are not being as careful as I'd expect.  I'm curious if others are seeing similar behavior besides the protests.

I get that history rhymes, not repeats, but given the early reports on this forum, the protests and history as a guide, if this takes 1+ years to solve this pandemic, how many people are likely to die from the second or third wave?  What is an appropriate set of precautions to take if everyone else choose to not take precautions?

I am seeing more traffic also, but other than that people seem to be continuing to be careful. More and more face masks.

Of course I have no real idea, but if the most vulnerable have already died in this first wave upon first exposure, the second and third waves should be smaller if the most vulnerable who are left continue to self-isolate.

As for appropriate precautions it all depends on your individual profile, as well as risk tolerance. I don't think the U.S. is doing a particularly good job of clarifying what high risk means.

From https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... isk-factor

“BMI is the Achilles’ heel for American patients,” says Jennifer Lighter, an epidemiologist at New York University’s Langone School of Medicine. That could be a crucial factor in the death toll, particularly for those under 60, she says. “In China it was smoking and pollution, and Italy had a larger older population, and many grandparents lived with extended families. Here, it’s BMI that’s the issue.”

[Ego]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/

"Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it's a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they're Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it's COVID-19 pneumonia, then it's $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000.

He noted that some states, including his home state of Minnesota, as well as California, list only laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses. Others, specifically New York, list all presumed cases, which is allowed under guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as of mid-April and which will result in a larger payout.

Hum.

[Jin+Guice]

@Ego: I've been wondering where you've been on the reliability of the death stats, I posted about that pages ago! Lol.

Seriously though, OTOH, I don't think it's possible to claim that coronavirus isn't a major killer, on the other hand, who knows what the actual numbers are! We're trying as hard as we can to not know what's going on.

If the Louisiana numbers are accurate, New Orleans has now had >0.1% of the cities entire population die of coronavirus (NYC has been passed this milestone for a bit. If you believe their numbers, including presumptives, they are near 0.2%).

[steveo73]

@Ego - Does that really matter. Trump to me is a fool but when he says that we will know if the problem is under control when the hospitals aren't inundated it's basically true.

COV19 is a problem that is killing people and the deaths and illnesses are real right ? There are about 55k deaths in the USA so far. I think we can assume that the figures are pretty accurate.

[thrifty++]

NZ has 5 new cases today and 1 more death.

Total cases of 1469. And total deaths of 19.

We come out of lockdown tomorrow. I was hoping things would be a bit better now. Like having zero new cases for the first time. But at least we have had only single digit increases each day for more than a week. I guess it might be unrealistic expecting zero new increases yet given the significant number of NZers trickling back into the country from overseas and going into quarantine.

A death toll of 1.3%. Actually seems quite high given how infectious this disease is. It has killed only people over 70 here. With the exception of two people in their 60s.

in saying that we are coming out of lockdown, things are still very restrictive under the level 3 alert system. Not a great deal will change. Only a slight variation. Mainly that we can get non contact takeaways, buy anything online and construction resumes. Its really another form of lockdown. For at least another 2 weeks.

Around 124,000 tests have been done in total (2.58% of the population).

1180 people have recovered - about 80 per cent of the cases in NZ. 289 active cases remaining.

Im not sure what other countries are doing but NZ is including "probable" cases in its numbers. These are cases where people have the symptoms but test negative for the virus. So there is a good chance NZ is over-reporting its number of cases. This would mean also that the death rate could be higher.

[Ego]

@Ego: I've been wondering where you've been on the reliability of the death stats, I posted about that pages ago! Lol.

Yeah, I saw that. I have absolutely no idea if they are accurate or not. If they are not accurate, I don't believe it is a result of some dark conspiracy. I think it is just another example of what ZAF mentioned here.

It does seem that many epidemiologists are advocating that in the absence of a vaccine or highly effective cure, lockdown or partial lockdown should continue indefinitely. That is not economically plausible and no one will actually follow it, so I guess the epidemiologists have decided not to take part in a constructive conversation.

So well said. There must be a name for this. They simply cannot even broach a subject without risking their position. There is no conspiracy. It's just that we've gone so far down this road that to question it is not possible.

ETA: https://youtu.be/Pb56K4XGKQA

[C40]

@MEA - that quote from McAfee doesn't make sense. If hospitals were motivated by the government paying them $39k for each diagnosis, the death rate would be really LOW. Not high. Because they'd be overjoyed to test a lot of people (and that is definitely not happening)


Maybe McAfee hit the meth a little too hard any mistyped? And meant to say Covid death, rather than diagnosis?

[Seppia]

McAfee also stated that if bitcoin didn’t hit $100k by a certain date he would have cut his own penis off and eaten it in live streaming, so I’m not sure why we should take him seriously.

[steveo73]

They simply cannot even broach a subject without risking their position. There is no conspiracy. It's just that we've gone so far down this road that to question it is not possible.

I don't see this at all. I think you are so far on the stop the lock down approach you are seeing conspiracies everywhere. There is a pandemic and people are dying. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. I really don't think that this is debatable. The numbers across the world are probably understated not overstated but we should use the official statistics because that is the best that we have.

I listen to the news every morning in Australia and two constant topics are herd immunity and relaxing the lock downs. These same topics are discussed on here and across the coverage on COVID-19 unless Trump has another stupid comment to state like drinking bleach will fix it or he makes another attempt to politicize this issue as much as he can because all he cares about is getting voted back in.

I think the herd immunity argument is pretty weak at the moment though. There is no proof for it. There is some proof that the virus isn't as bad as initially thought in relation to how contagious it is. I think the mortality rate which is low has been fairly constant at below a 1% mortality rate.

Bigato made a point a while back that some people seem to want this to be black and white but it isn't. Sure there may be extreme approaches in relation to no lock down or complete lock down and no economic impact to the worst depression of all time but the reality is that these are extremes that won't occur.

People are going to socially distant themselves. The governments who have taken a light on approach appear to be the ones who have stuffed this up. We are talking the UK and the USA and Sweden. This may not be the case in a years time but atm the quicker and stricter the lockdown the less impact there appears to be on a countries health system and it's economy.

Everyone is going to be impacted economically though and clearly some things need to change. China and those countries mentioned above need to have a look at themselves and re-think their policies in the future in relation to risk management of events like this.