COVID-19

Health, Fitness, Insurance, ...
slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@plantingourpennies

You didn't read the article. I was impressed to see so much quality citation. Straight from WHO's Twitter on January 14th*, same day as your article claims WHO said something different without any citation:

World Health Organization (WHO)
·
14 Jan.
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China🇨🇳.


*https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1 ... 9427761152?

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Safest to least safe countries during covid19 pandemic - apparently.

https://www.dkv.global/covid-19-health-safety

Its getting a bit old now. Things change so fast. 2 April. I would have thought Australia would be higher up the list. But its improved a lot in the recent days.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

That's a pretty terrible list, and many countries are missing all together.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@2birds1stone. Yes agreed it is quite a shitty list. Its the only one I have come across so far though.

Israel is a strange pick being at the top. As is Hong Kong given its part of China. I would have picked NZ, Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Iceland, Greenland, Singapore and not sure what next.

J_
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Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

I reported earlier abut a 40 ish family in the village we live with two children who were all Covid infected, stayed isolated at home and who recovered all in about 3 weeks. The parents are still working to improve their condition. Children were hardly sick.
Yesterday I spoke to a couple beginning 60 ish in this village who were also positive tested and recovered in their home in about 4 weeks. The wife has been rather sick, the man hardly. I met them on their first day walking outside their home. For her it will take another couple of weeks to improve condition she told me.

So I get the impression that, given a good health, be not on any drugs, a state of fair fitness and ease are your best ways to survive this (not so deathly for healthy people as hyped) virus.

As Jacob and others earlier noted the changes are worse if you are not in a healthy shape, as we all seeing around us. Antifragility pays out!

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

Today the 150000th test was performed.
4% of tested turn up positive and
2.5% of cases end up dieing.
Lockdown extended until atleast 30th April in my state.
Telangana extended until 2nd June. Other 2 states have also done the same.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Peanut:

That would be great if it is true. Conversely, spreading like wildfire in nursing homes. My only thought would be that staff over age 45 should be given option to remain at home. Of course, I also think that should have been an option for the 60 year old woman who died after being exposed at her mission critical poultry processing plant job.

@J:

Although there is obviously good deal of overlap, it is important to not confuse health with fitness. In my neck of the woods, a 47 year old very fit professional dancer whose only known comorbidity was asthma died from this disease. Along with asthma, high blood pressure is often inherited and present from a young age, but not likely to cause somebody to die in their 40s or 50s this year.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:16 am
Of course, I also think that should have been an option for the 60 year old woman who died after being exposed at her mission critical poultry processing plant job.
Exactly! It is completely illogical that those with high risk are still out working while those with virtually zero risk are locked in.

They are not doing a good job publicizing which risk factors are the most risky, which I believe is evil. Someone was able to piece together what little data trickled out.

Image

It seems those with high blood pressure are especially vulnerable. They should not be forced to go to work. That said, some have suggested that it is not the high blood pressure per se but the ACE inhibitors that hypertensives take that is the cause, which is still being minimized by health officials.

Another version of the masks are useless>>>>masks are compulsory or you will be arrested.

BeyondtheWrap
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Re: COVID-19

Post by BeyondtheWrap »

@Ego: Do we have numbers for what percentage of the population in those countries has those conditions in the first place? We can’t really say whether those conditions are a factor or just prevalent in those groups. I can see the percentage of patients with diabetes is highest in the US, which makes sense. In both cases, it should probably be broken down further by age group, since many health conditions are age-related.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Ego wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:30 am
They are not doing a good job publicizing which risk factors are the most risky, which I believe is evil.
Well, technically, the biggest risk factors are all here ... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -risk.html The CDC revised that page rapidly during the beginning of the breakout until they settled on this "ipad" version. But yeah, it's certainly not information that's being shouted from the roof tops.

It conforms with the comorbidities posted earlier viewtopic.php?p=209578#p209578 ... I don't think these are a priori probabilties, so a country with a different health profile would show different outcomes. E.g. Middle Eastern countries have diabetes rates ~20% (twice that of the US) whereas the US has a high level of obesity and hypertension, for example.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Biggest change is specific inclusion of moderate asthma based on growing body of U.S. data. Dr. Birx also mentioned this in White House press conference a couple days ago.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... california
“The virus was freewheeling in our community and probably has been here for quite some time,” Dr. Jeff Smith, a physician who is the chief executive of Santa Clara County government, told county leaders in a recent briefing.

How long? A study out of Stanford suggests a dramatic viral surge in February.

But Smith on Friday said data collected by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, local health departments and others suggest it was “a lot longer than we first believed” — most likely since “back in December.”

“This wasn’t recognized because we were having a severe flu season,” Smith said in an interview. “Symptoms are very much like the flu. If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn’t really notice. You didn’t even go to the doctor. The doctor maybe didn’t even do it because they presumed it was the flu.”

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20054361v1
People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

saving-10-years
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Re: COVID-19

Post by saving-10-years »

The BBC website how links to info that may be of interest to current discussion.
An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Att ... 505601089b

Its interesting in showing how the COVID19 patients differ from patients normally admitted to critical care units for non-COVID pneumonia. COVID patients are more likely to be male, ethnic minority and less likely to be seriously ill (more capable of independant living). Gives information on characteristics of COVID group such as BMI and comorbidities. (These COVID patients are less likely to have been seriously ill to start with than the 'normal' pneumonia intake.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

US hospitalization rates over time by age.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

The lines can be multiplied by ~7-10% to compute the morbidity about ~one week into the future.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

normal pneumonia: fuck you
covid: fuck british dudes in particular

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:39 pm
US hospitalization rates over time by age.
I like Fareed Zakaria

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html
What is going on? Perhaps social distancing has worked better than was imagined. But still, there is a puzzle about the numbers. Predictions for hospitalization rates have also proved to be substantial overestimations. On March 30, University of Washington researchers projected that California would need 4,800 beds on April 3. In fact, the state needed 2,200. The same model projected that Louisiana would need 6,400; in fact, it used only 1,700. Even New York, the most stressed system in the country, used only 15,000 beds against a projection of 58,000. It’s best to plan for the worst, but this has meant that patients with other pressing illnesses might have been denied care — or not sought care — for no good reason.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Ego - I read somewhere that the models predicting the 100-240k death toll was based on a 50% compliance rate for the federal guidelines. Many states have had tougher guidelines/orders and some people have imposed such on themselves earlier than ordered (we did), so perchance the compliance rate turned out to be higher than 50%. I've also read reports from other countries with doctors complaining that people are triaging themselves, i.e. not showing up at the hospitals when they should have because they're either afraid of getting the virus or didn't want to take up resources.

The article comments about the Chinese CFR, but didn't we agree on the source of the denominator confusion and how CFR is not IFR several dozen pages ago? I've been operating with the SK, Vo, Plague ship rates, where widespreading testing converged CFR asymptotically IFR (true death rate) to around 1ish%+ since very many pages ago. This was also what the original CDC estimate was very early on---hence the original prediction of 2 million dead Americans if nothing was done (327M population*1% IFR*60% herd immunity).

Add: Also, the expert quoted is maybe confusing Denmark with some other country?! Maybe the Faeroe Islands? In Denmark, initially, everybody who wanted a test could get one, drive-in style. That lasted a couple of days until they almost ran out of tests after finding ~500-1000 cases (I forget the exact timing). Then the policy changed to not testing anyone unless they were admitted to the hospital. Pursuing a strategy of "mitigation" rather than prevention, the official argument was that further testing was not necessary(!) Then the WHO complained and after much back and forth, they started testing again to get a better idea---this is also getting relevant now that the curve is broken and they're looking to open up again. I don't know if they do random testing, but the current Danish CFR is 4.3%, so they're not testing widely insofar the tests are random. Currently about 1.17% of the population has been tested with 8.8% coming back positive. In the US it's 0.79% with 20.0% positive.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

I've also been surprised at the effectiveness of social distancing measures in the U.S. My interpretation was that the U.S. was trying much less hard than western Europe, but our measures seem to be much more effective. Did Europe just start with that many more cases than the U.S.? The U.K. was criticized for responding late in the game and now a nation of ~66 million is losing ~1,000/ day. Florida, also criticized for responding late, a state of ~20 million, is losing <50/ day. Did the U.S. just get lucky? Is it possible that density is playing a large roll?

To my knowledge, no "poor" country has been heavily hit yet. Presumably things will go very badly if/ when that happens. I hear Ecuador is pretty bad, but are there any other poor countries that look anywhere near as bad as Italy two weeks ago? I'm (pleasantly) surprised that shit hasn't hit the fan in a nation that 1) can't afford a shutdown and 2) has terrible health infrastructure.

According to the worldometer numbers, SK is closer to a 2% death rate now. Is there any explanation for that or any update on how things eventually panned out there, now that they have the disease under control and a large quantity of cases have been resolved?

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

black_son_of_gray wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:23 pm
San Francisco now has a decently useful data tracker up online:
https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/fjki-2fab

Confirms more male than female (~60/40), shows most COVID+ are <60 years old, gives you an idea of how much testing is happening (for a city of 880k, ~300 tests per day consistently over the last few weeks - only 0.03% per day! :shock: - even as 13% are positive...)

And yet, at the same time, hospital bed used for COVID+ patients seems to have plateaued at <90 for all hospitals across the city, which is wonderful news. I'll update again if/when the hospitalization count starts to go down, as that will probably be a bellwether for policies to start opening the city back up.

Locked