COVID-19

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jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Ego - No I didn't read it before I responded. It failed to load at first, so I figured the link was borked. Tried again and have now read it. Nothing there causes me to shift my position that these alternative (asymptomatic or time-shifted) theories do not explain why so many people are dying right now (and not 60-90 days ago, say) and why so many of the tests (that still require flu like symptoms in order to be tested) come back negative.

I'm very committed to the law of parsimony. Such theories either need to invoke the additional assumption that PCR tests have a substantial number of false positives and/or declare the existence of a third type of short-lived and geographically limited disease that has suddenly started killing people in March and April way above the background noise level. These are both complicating assumptions. It's easier to just presume that what we see is actually what we think we see even if it is very tough to keep the economy locked down.

I fully realize that this debate is mostly an ideological one ("people stand where they sit"... essentially arguing personal wallets or personal risk/temperament) regardless of whether it's framed in lives or money or lives lost because of money lost or money lost because of lives lost or something else. For example, if I had a tooth ache right now, I bet I'd be more inclined to supporting opening up non-essential dental services. I'm not super-interested in those [value] debates because I'm not the King making the decisions. I also don't think the debate is going to change the minds of those making the decisions. Individually people can follow whatever guidelines/models they want. If the belief is that the risk is low because everybody is asymptomatic, it's easy to get first in line in terms of going back out into the world. Use social media to find those who think the threat is exaggerated and hang out with them. Ditto if the belief is that some things are more important than getting infected, like going to church. Some do that too. If it was possible to sign an affidavit to not receive CV19 treatment in exchange for a free pass to go out in public, I'd be all for it. If the belief is that the threat is not exaggerated it's also possible to self-isolate. At least on this forum it's easy to stay at home and spend down the stash a bit. For the rest of the world, there are various bailout packages to ensure that nobody is even close to starving. Employment wise, critical operations are very much hiring! Anyone who has been sent home from work over what they think is an imaginary disease should have a very easy time finding work in essential businesses right now.

This epidemic is rather karmic as it allows people to make individual choices with consequences being awarded on a rather individual basis as well. This is actually rather rare in terms of human predicaments. Overall, I don't care that greatly what individuals do---because there's not much I can do about it anyway---live and let die, I say. I, for one, am going to presume that the pandemic is real and stay isolated.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

I thought this was quite a balanced un-sensationalised account of experiencing the coronavirus. Also involving one person with asthma.

Im not sure what age the people were, but given they were living in a shared flat, most likely 20s or 30s.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... wVRADjyth4

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I think the main point being missed in the discussion of economic costs is that this was a known risk in general terms which the free market did not adequately address. From “Viruses: A Very Short Introduction” Second Edition 2018.
As the emergence and reemergence of viruses is increasing, vaccines to protect both humans and domestic animals and to prevent virus spread are urgently needed. So far this need has been ignored by vaccine manufacturers due to concerns about commercial viability.
Thus, we find ourselves in the position of a patient suffering end stage outcome of lifestyle disease and forced to choose between very costly procedure or loss of life.

horsewoman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by horsewoman »

Low death rate in Germany

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/worl ... -rate.html

I apologise if this link has been posted already, this thread is a little difficult to keep up with.

Here are some explanations why the death rate in Germany is so low. In rural Bavaria however we do not notice much testing going on. My brother and I had prolonged direct contact with a proven positive person and did not get tested, even though I showed some mild symptoms. Other people say the same thing. Bavaria is one of the German hot-spots, probably due to being closest to Austria and Italy.

We have two larger hospitals in our area, one of them has been appointed as a "Corona clinic", while the other one takes all other cases. It was in the news yesterday that at the corona facility 20 doctors and nurses are infected and that they start to get overwhelmed in regards to ICU capacity. So it is not all roses and sunshine after all in Germany...

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@7wb5 - Yeah, same point was made in this tome: https://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-Trust-C ... 786865229/

It's the good old "well, there hasn't been a major problem in quite a while, so lets deregulate and save some monies" saw.

Fun fact: Pre-corona, you could have bought loads of copies used for <$1+shipping.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:07 pm
free market did not adequately address
But how can we develop a vaccine 'in advance' for something that hasn't emerged yet? Totally agree that there's widespread negligence in terms of research and preparedness (pre-COVID) ie. insufficient stash of PPE or emergency beds just for when (not if) something like this happens. The guy on JR podcast summed it up best saying that you don't wait with building carriers until after the war started.

However, I don't think this is a fault of capitalism as such seeing how despotic/non-free-marker countries aren't prepared either and their response is much worse.* It's just another issue that's largely ignored until it's too big to ignore anymore. Considering the fairly advanced research on vaccines for previous viruses was shelved as non-economical, some state intervention here looks like a good idea.

*China - cover-up; Russia - denial until very late; Belarus - president claiming there's no virus: "There's no virus here, can you see any virus? I can't see any"; Turkmenistan - bans the word 'coronavirus'

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:00 pm
The Curve is Already Flat
https://www.morozkoforge.com/post/the-c ... ready-flat

It was posted on Medium first but quickly censured. Imagine that.
Not buying it. Covid Trends shows Arizona's new cases have only been flat for the past 5 days and there are a load of other explanations for why that could be. She has to rule out those other explanations.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Looks like a casual walk in the park might be more dangerous than I thought...
When a cyclist or pedestrian sneezes, coughs or even just exhales, the saliva particles are left behind in the air. Which means the person coming up behind them passes through this cloud of droplets.

By using methods used to enhance athletes' performances, the teams from Eindhoven University of Technology and Leuven University found the greatest risk of infection existed in the slipstream.

On the basis of these results, the scientists advise that those on the move should be given more of a social distance. Walkers should get at least four metres, runners 10 metres and cyclists at least 20 metres.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-5 ... type=share

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

The exponential growth of testing has shown how widespread this already is. Flu can also cause permanent disability. So can cars. And in no small numbers. Test the whole population, I'd be shocked if the number is below 10% of the population (30 something million Americans.) The rate has been shown to be over double that in the millions of people tested so far.

This already spread to tens, possibly hundreds of millions of people globally. It's near a peak if it hasn't passed already. In Wuhan alone, at least 100,000 people had it in January due to a banquet where 200,000 people gathered and ate Chinese style, such as using your chopsticks to gather food from a communal plate and spitting food while eating as they have passionate discussions with mouths open and food in mouth flying everywhere. If that doesn't spread it, we can all go back outside right now. The Chinese numbers are known to be garbage, don't even use their data.

Use Taiwan's or USA's numbers for more accuracy. China isn't even showing how many people were tested but they're ordering urns for cremation in excess of 500/day in Wuhan alone. People there get quite savagely attacked for even trying to report numbers. All journalists just got expelled from there. Brave Chinese doctors, nurses, reporters, and business leaders have tried speaking up or reporting numbers only to get kidnapped, arrested, or disappear since December.

That could've stopped it, but the dictatorship there prevented the people from communicating and pressured the WHO to spread their lies until enough people had spread throughout the world to make its spread inevitable. Don't trust WHO either. Parsimony. The truth is obvious. We don't have state media in the west so we don't understand how pervasive it is but China literally owns the media there, the people there cannot publish information even if they wanted to and did all the tests they could.

Taiwan heard the message and took it seriously has been on life as normal mode, same ethnicity but with free speech, they kept everything under control, authoritarianism exacerbated it, it is not the answer.

Most countries are freaking out that the worst is to come. It's here. People we know are sick. Pretty sure over 10 people and whole families I know have had it. Hospitals are as bad as they'll get. Breathe people. I know you've been prepping for the world to end but it's just getting better.

Sweats and chills are the most common symptom, along with a day or 2 of bed rest. We're going to make it through stronger, with more people working remotely, less commuting, cleaner air, more family time, and hopefully a freedom dividend, reparations, and the Chinese people finally getting a voice.

* Sad that I even have to post this but any statements here are not in any way against any ethnicity. China is a political entity and does not represent all or even most of the Chinese people. My girlfriend is half Taiwanese and thus, of Han origin, just like most Chinese people who are fighting to get their voices across the great firewall. I have a deep respect for people of all races.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/ ... 187085.php

MONTEREY, Calif. — Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.

The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.

----and---

"Something is going on that we haven't quite found out yet," said Victor Davis Hanson a senior fellow with Stanford's Hoover Institute.

Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

"When you add it all up it would be naïve to think that California did not have some exposure," said Hanson.

For years California has been the No. 1 travel destination for Chinese tourists in the United States. Even after the U.S. halted flights from China this winter Chinese travelers were still able to come to California on flights from Europe and Canada.

Hanson said through all of this the Chinese have been disingenuous about the timing of the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

"They originally said it was in early January, then it got backdated to December and then early December and now they are saying as early as November 17," said Hanson.
Of course, the study I linked to above that shows that some people who tested positive for Covid but did not produce antibodies would mean that the results will be somewhat skewed low.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

slowtraveler wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:26 pm
Most countries are freaking out that the worst is to come. It's here.
Worst is definitely still to come. Compare California to New York and the difference is stark. California has had nowhere near the deaths that New York has had. California has fewer people than South Korea, yet 50% more cases and they're still happening at a higher rate than in South Korea. Results vary so much depending on how well a country's public health system works.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:15 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Wed, Apr 8
- 1239 Positives
- 23325 Negatives
- 38 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 103 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 9 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 2 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 45 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 40 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 19 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 31 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 46 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 218 Marion (Salem)
- 3 Morrow (Heppner)
- 286 Multnomah (Portland)
- 28 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 8 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 295 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 25 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 26 19 or younger
- 133 20-29
- 186 30-39
- 233 40-49
- 226 50-59
- 223 60- 69
- 129 70-79
- 83 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 16 20-29
- 20 30-39
- 48 40-49
- 55 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 55 70-79
- 41 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 324 Yes
- 812 No
- 103 Not provided

Sex
- 664 Female
- 570 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 302 Available adult ICU beds
- 2175 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 92 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 192 Available pediatric beds
- 785 Available ventilators
- 440 COVID-19 admissions
- 125 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 67 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
82 new cases.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Thu, Apr 9
- 1321 Positives
- 24306 Negatives
- 44 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 109 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 50 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 44 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 20 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 33 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 49 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 235 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 302 Multnomah (Portland)
- 29 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 11 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 311 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 29 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 31 19 or younger
- 141 20-29
- 203 30-39
- 245 40-49
- 237 50-59
- 241 60- 69
- 138 70-79
- 84 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 13 20-29
- 19 30-39
- 46 40-49
- 50 50-59
- 91 60- 69
- 63 70-79
- 41 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 326 Yes
- 872 No
- 123 Not provided

Sex
- 711 Female
- 602 Male
- 8 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 294 Available adult ICU beds
- 2237 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 90 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 189 Available pediatric beds
- 794 Available ventilators
- 400 COVID-19 admissions
- 105 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 64 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

den18
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Re: COVID-19

Post by den18 »

Has anyone been keeping track of how the virus is mutating? I recall we already have at least one severe and one less severe strain. The spanish flu ended not from any human action but from the virus mutating to a less lethal version and people living with it.

Anyone know how long it took before that less lethal strain took over from the lethal one?

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Bankai wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:19 am
Or rather, it would cause more deaths than the virus.
....
What I think might happen is that the 'light' measures (ie. WFH) will stay for good (until vaccine) but the 'tough' measures (closing businesses and schools) will be lifted, gradually, and re-introduced once infection rate picks up again. Measures will likely be lifted in the reverse order they were introduced.
I don't buy those figures and I think it says much more about society than it does about anything else. We can do better than that.

I also think that these estimates all need to be taken with a massive grain of salt. The estimates and models will be all over the place. It's predicting the future and it's not some set in stone mathematical formula.

The problem with the approach that you suggest to me is that if we just get a second round of infection then we just have to go back on the merry go round and we are talking about human lives.

We are talking about loss of human life on a fairly large scale. We've had pandemics in the past without any vaccine. We have to stop it spreading and let it die out. I don't believe in just letting it run rampart.

Maybe I'm being too idealistic but I expect better from society. I also don't trust those figures that are being put out there and the way people rely on those figures like that are a certainty.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

den18 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:29 pm
Has anyone been keeping track of how the virus is mutating?
My understanding was that it wasn't mutating but a random person told me that it was recently. I'd like to know what is happening. Viruses do though die out. It happened to SARS.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Bankai wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:27 pm
However, I don't think this is a fault of capitalism as such seeing how despotic/non-free-marker countries aren't prepared either and their response is much worse.* It's just another issue that's largely ignored until it's too big to ignore anymore.
The free market and democracy have to me failed dismally but look at how China has gone. They've been worse than any free market democracy out there.

It's just how poor humans are at looking forward at certain events. We need to be more risk aware when making decisions but it's going to be tough. There are political pressures etc out there. Clearly we are seeing something that is a more likely risk occurring now. Do we manage this over less likely events such as an alien invasion. Can we manage this via the current weak world political structures and power compared to national sovereignty.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:59 am
Is that condescension I detect there?
Actually no, it's just a good descriptor of my knowledge base. I respect everything that comes off of your keyboard (that's true of most here). I'm certainly not expert, but certainly experienced and knowledgeable enough in the subject to not believe every nonpeer reviewed study that comes out. Particularly when the results are contradictory to what is known in medical science. Medical studies have so many more variables than, for example, a controlled physics experiment, any single or single cluster of studies should be taken with a grain of salt.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:28 pm
State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Tue 7 Apr
- 9097 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 421 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 190 Benton (Prosser)
- 35 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 10 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 186 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 12 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 76 Franklin (Pasco)
- 95 Grant (Ephrata)
- 7 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 149 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3668 King (Seattle)
- 117 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 15 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 12 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 759 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 169 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1651 Snohomish (Everett)
- 220 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 77 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 17 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 236 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 394 Yakima (Yakima)
- 838 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

542 new cases. New section reporting distribution of patients between admitted and ICU. Washington has fallen to 13th in total USA cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Wed 8 Apr
- 9608 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 446 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 215 Benton (Prosser)
- 41 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 11 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 194 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 21 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 13 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 93 Franklin (Pasco)
- 99 Grant (Ephrata)
- 7 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 151 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3884 King (Seattle)
- 122 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 18 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 18 Mason (Shelton)
- 12 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 808 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 173 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1702 Snohomish (Everett)
- 230 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 16 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 240 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 427 Yakima (Yakima)
- 908 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting
Apr 6 91 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 94 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 90 hospitals 639 COVID-19 patients, 181 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 28% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

den18 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:29 pm
Has anyone been keeping track of how the virus is mutating? I recall we already have at least one severe and one less severe strain. The spanish flu ended not from any human action but from the virus mutating to a less lethal version and people living with it.
You can follow the strains here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global ... Since it's an RNA virus, it's mutating rapidly as RNA transcription is not as error-free as DNA ditto. Given the size of the genome (30k base pairs) practically every single copy the virus makes of itself is a mutant.

(BTW bsog, I finally got and finished the book 8-) )

In general infectious diseases tend to become less symptomatic and less virulent as they evolve and the "species" adapts to its hosts; especially if it doesn't have a natural reservoir and rely on humans to keep transmitting itself.

However, the Spanish Flu is an example of the opposite where the virus (H1N1 - the original swine flu) randomly mutated into a deadlier version that killed many more people in the second wave than the first. The first wave was like a regular flu killing the old, young, and weak. Yet the second killed primarily the young and healthy (cytokine storm). Also, those who were infected in the first wave were immune to the second. (<= Not a recommendation to go and lick door knobs.)

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

There are different types of mutation. According to the folks at TWiV the antigenic variation will like other coronas be very low.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-597/

The relevant section starts at about 1:07 to about 1:13

I seem to remember them saying somewhere else in the podcast that it is very stable overall as viruses go. It does show DNA mutations but there is no evidence for positive selection.

Locked