COVID-19

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sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

As of yesterday, the daily increase rate in Michigan deaths due to COVID-19 is 1.47 per day (or 147%). That is starting with the first death on March 18, to 32 deaths on March 27.

If this rate continues, we will experience about 25,000 deaths cumulative by April 12.

Hopefully isolation will reduce the increase rate.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20041079v1
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care.
With no other interventions, possible duration 19 months.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:55 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Thur, Mar 26
- 316 Positives
- 6953 Negatives
- 11 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 15 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 7 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 26 Linn (Albany)
- 57 Marion (Salem)
- 45 Multnomah (Portland)
- 6 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 104 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 19 20-29
- 39 30-39
- 63 40-49
- 52 50-59
- 70 60- 69
- 40 70-79
- 27 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 4 30-39
- 14 40-49
- 12 50-59
- 28 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 8 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 90 Yes
- 170 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 170 Male
- 144 Male
- 2 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 362 Available ICU beds
- 2193 Available non-ICU beds
- 684 Available ventilators
Escalating rapidly [edit: state official says expanded testing of mild cases is responsible]. Spring break & good weather last weekend may or may not have contributed to 98 new cases today. Added Columbia and Morrow counties.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9:30a Fri, Mar 27
- 414 Positives
- 8510 Negatives
- 12 Deaths

Cases by County
- 5 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 31 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 18 Deschutes (Bend)
- 4 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 6 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 2 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 28 Linn (Albany)
- 83 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 67 Multnomah (Portland)
- 10 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 3 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 122 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 11 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 9 19 or younger
- 32 20-29
- 48 30-39
- 81 40-49
- 78 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 47 70-79
- 35 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 15 50-59
- 29 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 11 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 102 Yes
- 218 No
- 94 Not provided

Sex
- 222 Male
- 187 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 360 Available ICU beds
- 2294 Available non-ICU beds
- 715 Available ventilators
- 91 COVID-19 admissions
- 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators
Last edited by George the original one on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

thrifty++ wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:57 pm
My god I can't believe that your work has not taken steps to arrange for staff to work from home. That is completely negligent. Personally I would take charge myself and proceed to work from home.
I don't think the homeowner's association would let me get away with operating a laboratory that large, but it would be fun.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.
I tend to agree with this. If such a high percentage of population has already been exposed, why are we getting so many negative PCR tests on symptomatic people, as they are the only ones being tested. In my state it's something like 97% negative. You would think if such a high percentage of population is exposed and asymptomatic we would be capturing that in the PCR tests to at least some degree. IOW, they are symptomatic due to a cold or bacterial pneumonia, but also have COVID.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:39 pm
As of yesterday, in the top half of the list, they are:
  • Florida - bars, nightclubs closed Mar 17, state parks closed Mar 22
  • Pennsylvania - 7 counties "stay at home" Mar 23
  • Texas
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • North Carolina - bars, nightclubs closed
  • Maryland
  • Alabama
  • Arizona
  • Missouri - St. Louis & Kansas City "stay at home" Mar 23 & Mar 24 respectively
  • Mississippi
  • Virginia
Someone made a web tool to look at the differences between states. You can adjust for population & patient zero. Also look at total cases, new cases, total deaths, or new deaths. Limit is 5 states at a time.

https://andygriff.in/blog/article/coronavirus-by-state

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:12 pm
State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Thu, 26 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 43173 Negatives
- 147 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Adams (Ritzville)
- 19 Benton (Prosser)
- 10 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 48 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 33 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 64 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1577 King (Seattle)
- 33 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 5 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 186 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 78 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 778 Snohomish (Everett)
- 67 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 24 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 86 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 3 Whitman (Colfax)
- 61 Yakima (Yakima)
- 69 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
493 new cases. Added Skamania County (Stevenson).

State of Washington published count as of 3:30p Fri 27 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 49015 Negatives
- 175 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 5 Adams (Ritzville)
- 42 Benton (Prosser)
- 13 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 76 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 12 Franklin (Pasco)
- 42 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 79 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1760 King (Seattle)
- 42 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 7 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 2 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 231 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 3 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 91 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 913 Snohomish (Everett)
- 86 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Stevens (Colville)
- 27 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 92 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Whitman (Colfax)
- 72 Yakima (Yakima)
- 45 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 10% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $25,000 in Alaska and $5,000 in Hawaii and one year in prison.

Edited: fine amounts
Last edited by theanimal on Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:03 pm
Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $10,000 and one year in prison.
Now that's a meaningful step!

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:49 pm
IOW, they are symptomatic due to a cold or bacterial pneumonia, but also have COVID.
I was wondering about that. Is it possible that covid-19 can't establish in the presence of another infection? Otherwise it would seem that it hasn't spread nearly as much as I speculated. I guess we really won't know until they start casting a wider net with testing programs.

Our governor here ratcheted things up a notch. Basically all "nonessential" businesses are ordered closed (no non-employees permitted on premises) starting tomorrow including a lot of retail-type businesses and barbershops and those sorts of personal care places. I'm a month out from my last haircut and will be looking scruffy here pretty soon. Gatherings of more than 10 prohibited. Still no shelter-in-place.
Last edited by IlliniDave on Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:23 pm
Agreed, but state-level is what we can all easily watch.
This site tracks local responses that differ or go beyond state measures https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

theanimal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:03 pm
Alaska and Hawaii both require anyone arriving in their respective states to undergo a 14 day quarantine. Failure to do so can result in a misdemeanor, a fine up to $25,000 in Alaska and $5,000 in Hawaii and one year in prison.

Edited: fine amounts
Does that include US persons? It could get messy if implemented among the contiguous 48.

I thought I saw where China was having some clashes relating to people moving between provinces.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@iDave-

Yes. Both states require quarantine regardless of citizenship or residency. Even if you reside in AK or HI you must undergo quarantine.

It's definitely easier to implement due to the physical isolation of both of those states and something I wish was implemented sooner. However, it does seem like something that may happen going forward elsewhere as other states/cities watch their neighbors do nothing in terms of prevention and look to avoid ill consequences later on. Perhaps a system of checkpoints with the national guard?

I'm not sure how it would work and I don't expect reactions would be smooth. Even today in China there were protests/riots in Hubei province after travel restrictions were lifted. There's nothing clean about it.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:49 pm

I tend to agree with this. If such a high percentage of population has already been exposed, why are we getting so many negative PCR tests on symptomatic people, as they are the only ones being tested. In my state it's something like 97% negative. You would think if such a high percentage of population is exposed and asymptomatic we would be capturing that in the PCR tests to at least some degree.
Ego Hypothesis:

Mild Covid-19 infection. (There is lots of evidence to support high #s of asymptomatic infections)
Recover but with low white blood cell (wbc) count (A characteristic of Covid-19)
Lowered wbc count allows co-infection or post-infection with bacterial pneumonia (There is significant evidence of co-infection)
Negative PCR.
Positive for Covid-19 antibodies (would be if the test existed).

The combined cocktail of hydroxychloroquine with the antibiotic azithromycin has shown to be effective. Some speculate that viral/bacterial co-infections make it so deadly so treating both helps.

ETA: Reminder, DNA analysis shows that it has Covid-19 has been circulating in the US for 2 1/2 months now.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/st ... washington
Last edited by Ego on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

8 known strains of this coronavirus, at least 4 of them in the USA.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-strains-co ... 38255.html
“The current virus strains are still fundamentally very similar to each other,” he said.

The COVID-19 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Ebola, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

83 new cases in NZ bringing the total confirmed or probable cases to 451.

There are now 2 out of those 451 in serious/critical condition.

50 out of that 451 have now recovered.

Average daily tests in the last 7 days Is 1613

In addition to the tests being undertaken at general practice clinics and hospitals I just found out that in one province there has been temporary drive through testing stations where thousands of people have had tests in the last week, but we don't have the results yet.

NZ is approaching the virus on an elimination basis, rather than a flatten the curve basis which seems to be what most other countries are doing.

Measures being taken have been happening very fast and getting increasingly strict. Police have been stopping cars, going onto boats to check people are complying and has spoken about going into peoples homes to check if they are complying with isolation requirements. Laws have been passed to place people in jail for non compliance. I think these things would be somewhat scary if it was not NZ govt.

The shutdown here for the whole country is a minimum of four weeks and we have been advised it might be extended.

The govt is predicting cases are likely to peak at around 3,000 to 4,000 cases and some deaths and then come back down if things go right.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Alaska is now shelter in place and has prohibited travel between communities within the state unless that travel is essential.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

George the original one wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:22 pm
making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Ebola, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
The article probably just made an error, but Ebola isn't a coronavirus. It's an ebolavirus. The two viruses aren't really that closely related.

Now granted, the critical point that SARS-CoV-2 appears to mutate slowly still stands. Which is great news when it comes to the vaccine.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

Texas is requiring people from New Orleans and New York to quarantine for 14 days. It's a self-quarantine in a specific hotel or residence, specified on arrival, so not sure how strict they are actually being. Interestingly, we have a surgery on our schedule for Texas next week (we usually fly someone out from New Orleans)...

Chris
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Chris »

Rhode Island cops are pulling over cars with NY plates and requiring quarantine for 14 days if the occupants are staying within RI.

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