COVID-19

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wolf
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Location: Germany

Re: COVID-19

Post by wolf »

Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine, because her doctor was tested positive. And she had contact with him two days ago.

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
Smart propaganda, which will probably have long lasting effects.
Key word - propaganda. Keep in mind this is the same country that actively suppressed news of the virus for months, lied to the WHO about its transmissibility, arrested the doctor who originally reported it publicly before leaving him to die, and are spreading accusations on state news that it's a US bioweapon.

I get why they're trying to change the narrative, but I'm not confident it's going to stick once other countries have the luxury of time and energy to push back against their self-serving revisionist history.

thedollar
Posts: 141
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by thedollar »

wolf wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine, because her doctor was tested positive. And she had contact with him two days ago.
She saw the doctor to get a vaccination - against what? :oops:

Jason
Posts: 2704
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

thedollar wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:19 pm
She saw the doctor to get a vaccination - against what? :oops:
Hopefully it's The Herp. Give the world something else to talk about.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sat, Mar 21
- 137 Positives
- 2338 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 437 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 11 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 9 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 3 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 19 Marion (Salem)
- 18 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 42 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 4 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 41 35-54
- 75 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 82 No
- 12 Not provided
24 new cases. Pending tests have been removed from the stats (see next paragraph). Washington County's share of cases has increased from 31% to 34% of all cases in Oregon.

"As of March 22, 2020, we no longer include the number of pending test results. Those numbers are only available from the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory (OSPHL). The OSPHL serves as the first source of testing during an outbreak and as commercial labs come online, OSPHL increases focus on priority testing. Commercial labs have the ability to conduct testing on an industrial scale, but do not report pending results, so this number would not accurately reflect the number of pending results."

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sun, Mar 22
- 161 Positives
- 2864 Negatives
- 3 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 12 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 22 Marion (Salem)
- 19 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 55 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 49 35-54
- 91 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 88 No
- 21 Not provided
Last edited by George the original one on Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Seppia
Posts: 1380
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Location: Italy

Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Tyler9000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:14 pm
Key word - propaganda. Keep in mind this is the same country that actively suppressed news of the virus for months, lied to the WHO about its transmissibility, arrested the doctor who originally reported it publicly before leaving him to die, and are spreading accusations on state news that it's a US bioweapon.

I get why they're trying to change the narrative, but I'm not confident it's going to stick once other countries have the luxury of time and energy to push back against their self-serving revisionist history.
I know what I would choose.
But people like simple narratives. The simple narrative is Trump has spent the last 4 years treating Europe as an enemy, China is sending us masks and experts.
Narratives have power

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

The bing map now includes county level details for the US. Note how the epidemic follows the standard path for such things. The first to be hit are the cities with global [air]ports that receive a lot of international traffic (also vacation spots). Then the disease travels inland to other bigger cities from there ... and then slowly makes it into the hinterland after that.

It will be interesting to see what happens in two weeks after all the springbreakers return to places all over the country from partying together in FL. Perhaps, this effect will be big enough to detect in the case stats 2-3 weeks from now as the virus has had time to incubate/infect family members.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

jacob wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:42 pm
The bing map now includes county level details for the US.
I like the county-level data, but they do a mediocre job at updating, at least they do for Oregon. Oregon data has obviously been county-level for weeks now as I'm pulling it off the state web-site and Bing is 1 day behind in reporting the numbers. I suppose there's some intrigue behind the scenes.

slowtraveler
Posts: 880
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

China literally gave the world the disease. I'd rather not get stabbed than have someone help me heal the potentially lethal wound after they stabbed me.

Wuhan held the world's biggest banquet 2 months after knowing of the outbreak. When doctors messaged each other to be careful about a possible disease, they get arrested. Such pathetic leadership there. I applaud the strong freedom fighters doing their best there but the ccp is a joke as a leadership. And now, people I love are scared of losing their businesses because of this. Seriously. Fuck China.

ertyu
Posts: 761
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

@slowtraveler and @tyler - this isn't about who's a good guy and who's a bad guy. I am only observing a (attempted?) geopolitical shift slowly in the making.

slowtraveler
Posts: 880
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

The shift has been a long time coming. It's a distribution of power. Asia as a whole will become more independent. Hopefully, we can all work together but the deception there is beyond atrocious.

What you saw was propoganda, I've been extremely close to China, it's not a place I'd ever want to visit. It's disgusting.

All my respect to Taiwan, they've handled this extremely well for how close they are. I sincerely hope they take back their country before the mainland does more damage to the world and the Chinese brand.

*None of these comments are meant to be taken as derogatory towards any ethnicity but a specific, very small group of people who claim to be communists but are just dictators. I feel angered that people believe their propoganda.

Augustus
Posts: 1105
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:33 am
China is playing this very very intelligently.
Uh... You guys remember how 2 months ago this disease came from China because China has horrible food safety laws right? Then they exported it to the rest of the world. We wouldn't have this disease anywhere if China didn't fuck up. All the deaths can be blamed solely on China for dropping the ball on food safety. It's a disgrace. 3 outbreaks of new lethal diseases in 20 years is not what I call "intelligent." It's about as stupid as you can get and the entire world should put a ton of pressure on China to get their shit together before it happens again, it's happened on average once a decade in China already, it's outrageous.

It's extremely saddening to me that the world has the attention span of a gnat and now we're PRAISING China, ffs...
Last edited by Augustus on Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Lets put a halt on the blame-shifting and blame-gaming talks for 6+ months until the first one or two waves of the pandemic have run its course!

Right now, it's more interesting and relevant to focus on how the pandemic develops and what strategies work or has worked.

If anyone still feels absolutely compelled to work through the political fallout/consequences from this, take it over to this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11256 ... and keep in mind that there are multiple nationalities reading along on the board. Also keep in mind that zoonotic infectious diseases require a complex system to occur, and just like the credit crisis, it's all too easy to put the blame on whatever particular aspect of the "elephant" that one personally dislikes, whereas in reality, it was a confluence of factors that can and will create another disease again at some point.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

+1

One recent novel killer zoonotic virus which spread to humans was due to a racehorse owned by very wealthy Westerners interacting with a bat.

I am taking two different courses very quickly to try to better understand stand this. One thing I can see already is terrible skew in the reporting in Michigan because around half the test results are coming out of just one hospital system’s own labs. I predicted the “official” state numbers today very accurately based on the hospital system’s numbers, but they are clearly way off of reality. As Jacob noted elsewhere, deaths are the only solid data. Second most solid IMO would be the numbers based on the virus mutation rate.

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

On another note, I cracked a filling yesterday, any dentists or people knowledgeable of such things in the crowd? I'm wondering if I should break quarantine to get it fixed, or if I can wait a few months. Sigh...

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

The American Dental Association started recommending postponing all elective procedures a while ago. (DW should have had a temporary crown replaced the day after that went into effect.) I think this is to minimize spread and to preserve protective equipment like masks, etc. for shortages in the rest of the system.

If your dentist is still "operational", I'd get it done now. Call them and ask.

Hopefully, we have a dentist onboard here, but otherwise, I usually refer to https://archive.org/details/WhereThereI ... t/mode/2up ... and the other great one "Where there is no doctor" for useful low-tech treatments/methods.

1taskaday
Posts: 435
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Location: England

Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

Possible hope for future :

The development of serum antibody tests for Covid 19.

These would be like pregnancy tests; very user friendly to use,with a result in 3 minutes.
A recent Nature article published 20th March 2020,"Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks" estimates "asymptomatic or mild cases combined represent about 40–50% of all infections". Chowell Gerardo.

Will there shortly be 40 -50% of different countries populations "unknowingly" immune to Covid 19 until their serum is tested for antibodies.

Testing for the Covid 19 virus itself is labour intensive and lengthy.
There is also insufficient testing kits world wide.

Does the possibility of being able to distinguish the immune from non immune offer hope?

Just a thought...

Also my timing to lose my 3 front teeth was unfortunate...no dentists available here either... everything comes to he who waits...

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:23 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sat, 21 Mar
- 1793 Positives
- 25328 Negatives
- 94 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 3 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 2 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 9 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 11 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 19 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 934 King (Seattle)
- 15 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 95 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 28 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 447 Snohomish (Everett)
- 16 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 9 Thurston (Olympia)
- 14 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 13 Yakima (Yakima)
- 133 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 45% Male
- 6% Unknown
203 new cases adding Walla Walla County.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sun, 22 Mar
- 1793 Positives
- 28879 Negatives
- 95 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 3 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 10 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 18 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 21 Island (Coupeville)
- 6 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1040 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 107 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 33 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 480 Snohomish (Everett)
- 20 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 14 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 16 Yakima (Yakima)
- 165 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 0-29
- 14% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 15% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 45% Male
- 4% Unknown

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@GTOO- Is that the first drop in growth for WA?

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Strange twist. Politically connected boss who typically does not bother employees on weekends made a special effort to get "Critical Infrastructure" passes to all employees on Sunday evening. Hum.

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