COVID-19

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AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 258
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

In calculations of "deaths vs the economy," I would argue that the traumatic way COVID-19 kills people is going to encourage governments to use more draconian measures to contain it vs letting it burn and save the economy.

What I mean by this is that COVID-19 doesn't just take away 1% of the population painlessly, in their sleep, and without burial logistical nightmares. Rather, it will crash the entire hospital system, thereby forcing relatives to watch as the virus kills grandpa, infects mother, kills mother, infects daughter. Now grandpa and mother have to go to the mass burial because the hospital crashed and daughter can't come because she's still quarantined in the basement. Hospital staff now suffer PTSD from having to triage cases for months on end and let people with other treatable conditions (heart attack, etc) die. Healthcare workforce is now impaired due to mental strain, flight from the profession, and massive deaths from healthcare workers. Healthcare system is now damaged for several years due to the impact on the highly trained staff.

The populace can also see COVID-19 as a clear threat and demand the government do something. The loss of life due to economic consequences is more diffuse and harder to imagine, and therefore will be discounted.

So decisions to fight COVID-19 are less about fearing death and more about fearing the horrible and socially traumatic way COVID-19 will kill its victims.

JuliusFC
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:07 pm
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: COVID-19

Post by JuliusFC »

Germany's fatality rate of 0.3% is amazingly low compared to other countries (https://www.covid-19canada.com/) and they have one of the highest numbers of confirmed cases. Have they just gotten lucky because so far people are skewing younger? Or is it because they are doing some things right: more testing, already having more ICU beds + respirators per capita (and getting even more), and a (perceived, at least) cultural tendency towards efficiency and not dicking around. I'm sure it's probably a combination.

It troubles me that the country I live in seems to be copying its approach to this from countries where things aren't working rather than where they are. Being two weeks or so behind Europe, we have a crystal ball actually showing us our future, and we just don't seem to be taking advantage of any of the lessons learned.

IlliniDave
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Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

Was just listening to the local NPR. Seems my community now has a dive through testing center that reportedly opened today. Tests performed with written MD referral only. 400 total tests available initially, metro area ~ 300K population. I expect we'll see a "spike" in new cases from the uptick in testing. First day under a "public health emergency" declared by the mayor. Nothing really new or unique except restaurants and bars can't serve on-premises. Schools have been closed for over a week. Gatherings of 25 or more banned unless 6' spacing can be maintained between anyone in attendance. Better than nothing I guess.

I'm on my first work-from-home day today, first full one, anyway. It's awful. I can't do what they really pay me to do because it requires lab environments. Just trying to be a cooperative employee/good citizen and doing some of the dry ancillary paperwork things at home.

I spoke with my boss, she and her daughter are doing okay in quarantine despite the daughter having decided to go on a cruise last weekend. She (my boss) has some health issues that probably put her at significant increased risks, so I'm concerned for her.

Augustus
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 10:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:54 am
Given all the dire economic statistics about people living paycheck-to-paycheck and not having even $300 for an emergency. Plus the fact that these folks tend to be the most vulnerable to such economic circumstance, what are their plans for interrupted work?
California bumped up unemployment insurance to 26 weeks, 1 year if it's COVID related. I imagine it may end up like the 1 year+ unemployment insurance under the 2009 recession. I don't know of anything else that will work. I am also very worried about these people, there are several in my extended family.

thrifty++
Posts: 1052
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

NZ closed its borders to everyone, except citizens and residents, for the first time ever in history.

39 confirmed cases.

NZ is probably best placed out of anywhere in the world to stamp the virus out completely. However I fear that is not going to happen, There are far too many people not taking this seriously. I fear we will become just like Europe.

ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

I don't get why western governments are not focusing on the most effective measures?
Italy did an experiment in a small town where they managed to reduce the infection rate to 0. They achieved this by lots of testing even for asymptomatic cases. and there are lots of asymptomatic/mild cases. That's the reason only testing severe cases won't work.

If I am in charge, I'll do this:

1. Test, test, test. Let's say test kit costs $200 each. It's much cheaper than the stimulus package. and no need to lock down.
2. Isolate infected people and track them. Even offer meal delivery etc.
3. Force domestic manufacturers to re-tool to make face mask, sanitizers, gloves, ventilators etc. and mandate everyone to wear face mask. In 1918 pandemic, regular people wore face masks!

It's such no-brainier thing to do but many western government are so slow to react.

What I do personally:
We have 19 reported cases in our City. I'll assume anyone I see is potentially infected. Actual cases number is a lot higher than reported number due to asymptomatic/mild cases. The infection curve is shifted by around 10 days between reported case number vs actual case number. Look at Italy's progression,we should have 1000 cases in our city. This number also match what the medical officer said that people don't think we are safe because we have only 19 reported cases. Our city can be just 1 month behind Italy. Italy is sending army trucks to move the dead bodies because local hospital/crematorium ran out of capacity!

I will only go out to essential things like: grocery shopping once a week. When I go out, I'll wear safety eye glasses which fully cover the eyes and also surgical face mask and vinyl glove. So 50 face masks will last me one year. 50 face masks cost just $50. I still use re-usable bags but I'll dis-infect it with bleach solution after shopping. once I return home, I'll immediately wash hands with soap, take shower and change cloth. and wash the cloth with hot water immediately.I am doing the best I can to reduce death.

I bought face masks from china.It's too late to order from China by regular mail which takes 1 month to arrive. Case number is doubling every few days. If order from China now, international express delivery service(1 to 3 days) is needed. Once initial supply has arrive, then order once a month to replenish.

wolf
Posts: 1025
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Location: Germany

Re: COVID-19

Post by wolf »

I just read about young people celebrating spring break in Florida. Crazy :shock: With a behavior like that, how could you stop the virus?!

Jean
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Location: Switzterland

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

Were are you going to find those tests?
In my village, people seem to be taking it seriously. Paradoxicaly, It's much more lively than usual, because you can ear a lot of children playing outside (while still staying away from each other) instead of being at school.

George the original one
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

ToFI wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:36 pm
1. Test, test, test. Let's say test kit costs $200 each. It's much cheaper than the stimulus package. and no need to lock down.
2. Isolate infected people and track them. Even offer meal delivery etc.
3. Force domestic manufacturers to re-tool to make face mask, sanitizers, gloves, ventilators etc. and mandate everyone to wear face mask. In 1918 pandemic, regular people wore face masks!
For the USA:
1. Inadequate testing supplies. Even ramping up private testing, we're going to be stuck for awhile only testing people who show symptoms.
2. Due to 1, infections have/will outstrip the ability to trace contacts.
3. Political ideology. "States should be creating the market so manufacturers retool to meet demand, not the federal government".

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

black_son_of_gray wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:05 pm
ETA: From N.N. Taleb

My own review is "Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence".
Is this true? Is there a complete absence of evidence?

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ied-italy/
According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.

and

But there are other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution - the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.
Smoking seemed to play a role in China and now in Italy.

WRT air quality, it feels as if we in SoCal have had nonstop rain for the past month so I expect the air quality of the west this fall to be terrible during fire season at the time the second wave is predicted.
Last edited by Ego on Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 452
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@Ego

I believe that is Taleb's point: Even if you only have a hint/whiff of evidence that things could be really bad, you have all the evidence you need to invoke the precautionary principle. Waiting until you have robust evidence for statistical purposes means that by default you've already missed your window of opportunity to avoid the worse outcomes.

I've been thinking about the fire season too. So many ways it makes me uneasy: poor air quality = worse lung health (for the recovering and the newly infected), already a shortage of masks, even more strain for already stretched-thin first responders...

ETA: Taleb also talks a lot about how tails (e.g. fat tails) do or do not manifest well in statistical analyses.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

@black_son_of_gray, Understood, but we've had data from China (for a month now?) which has been confirmed from Italy as to who is most at risk. Moving forward would it be possible to do a strict quarantine on those most at risk coupled with testing for all so that the economy can at least partially function?

George the original one
Posts: 5318
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:58 pm
@black_son_of_gray, Understood, but we've had data from China (for a month now?) which has been confirmed from Italy as to who is most at risk. Moving forward would it be possible to do a strict quarantine on those most at risk coupled with testing for all so that the economy can at least partially function?
Some countries are, I believe, taking this approach.

The problems I see are that testing for all is still unavailable in the USA and you're taking an overall hospitalization rate of 1-in-5 and trading it for, at best, 1-in-7.

George the original one
Posts: 5318
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:56 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Thu, Mar 19
- 88 Positives
- 1329 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 437 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 6 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Lane (Eugene)
- 18 Linn (Albany)
- 13 Marion (Salem)
- 7 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 25 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 2 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 3 25-34
- 23 35-54
- 54 55+
26 new cases, testing still ramping up. Added Grant & Union counties. In the past week, Oregon has gone from 30 cases to 124.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Fri, Mar 20
- 124 Positives
- 2003 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 433 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 10 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 8 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 17 Marion (Salem)
- 12 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 31 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 4 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 6 25-34
- 34 35-54
- 66 55+

Augustus
Posts: 1105
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 10:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

ToFI wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:36 pm
I don't get why western governments are not focusing on the most effective measures?
Supply shortage: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-washin ... 1584552147

Which of course is paywalled after I read it yesterday... but from what I recall of the article swabs, containers, reagents etc are all back ordered. Even if we wanted to do it right now we couldn't because of lack of supplies.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Ego wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:58 pm
Moving forward would it be possible to do a strict quarantine on those most at risk coupled with testing for all so that the economy can at least partially function?
I'm not sure I have an answer, but here are some (hopefully) related thoughts. The main dilemma is (minimizing health impacts) vs. (minimizing economic impacts). We might imagine two extreme scenarios where governments go all-in on one or the other and get ideal outcomes for that strategy. I'll use a simplistic notation of "negative impact" in this form, with each ranging from 0 (no impact) to 1 (maximum negative impact): [Health=(0 to 1),Economy=(0 to 1)].

For (minimizing health impacts), we would see a complete and total lockdown of the population such that the curve is sufficiently flattened and no health care system is overwhelmed. The Medium article posted a few days back that did some math on this suggests that this would require the curve to be stretched out many years, because the capacity of the health care system is comparatively very low relative to the demands resulting from COVID-19. This would probably be the most disruptive scenario I can think of for economic impact* because it is so drawn out that any debts at all (and our world is awash in debt) would default or have to be nationalized. This scenario is [0,1].

*Unless it was caught really early when testing, isolation, and contact tracing could keep up. This is no longer possible for most places, certainly not in the US.

For (minimizing economic impacts), we would see a policy that allows COVID-19 to "burn through" the population. Hell, maybe even inoculate the population so that the sickness isn't drawn out in time. One month haitus, then everything turns back on at full speed, with society severely traumatized and a good deal of people dead. This scenario is [1,0].

Now let's consider what we might call "mixed" scenarios, that try to balance health and economic concerns. Every country on earth will follow a mixed scenario because none of the two scenarios described above are possible or palatable at this point. What is completely unknown is what possible solutions really look like between [0,1] and [1,0]. One might assume that the tradeoffs are linear, meaning that no matter what balance is struck, the sum is 1... for example [0.3,0.7] or [0.5,0.5]. However you want to calculate things, I doubt that is true. Rather, ideally, we can figure out a set of policies that sum < 1, e.g. [0.2,0.6] or something like that. What I am particularly worried about is a set of policies that is > 1. Something like an unholy compromise where the economy is damaged enough to blow itself up, but the health care system is also still overwhelmed for a long time.

The problem with health care capacity is that it is very low relative to the problem, such that even if the curve was flattened a lot but not enough (and at great expense to the economy), the number of excessive deaths would be essentially the same* assuming the same area under the curve. There are a lot of assumptions in this thinking, and time can bring with it several solutions (like a vaccine, ramped up health care capacity), but this is my nightmare. This is [0.8,0.8].

*If health care capacity = 1, and no flattening = 100 demand, then 100-1= 99 out of every 100 are impacted. But with flattening = 30 demand, then still 30-1=29 out of 30 still impacted! And the economy is crushed much longer.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:35 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Thu, 19 Mar
- 1376 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 74 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Benton (Prosser)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 1 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 17 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 693 King (Seattle)
- 12 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 2 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 75 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 18 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 348 Snohomish (Everett)
- 9 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 151 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 13% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
148 new cases. Added Cowlitz County.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Thu, 19 Mar
- 1524 Positives
- 21719 Negatives
- 83 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 2 Benton (Prosser)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 1 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 6 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 19 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 793 King (Seattle)
- 12 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 2 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 83 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 25 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 385 Snohomish (Everett)
- 11 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 10 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 10 Yakima (Yakima)
- 133 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 13% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 16% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

EdithKeeler
Posts: 1058
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

I ventured out this afternoon—took my brother’s dog back home—didn’t even get out of the car. My first time out into the world since Monday.

Frankly, I was picturing empty streets and parking lots, but it looked pretty much like business as usual to me. I was a little surprised, actually.

It looks, too, like my neighbor is having her every-other-weekend house party where family comes in on Friday and stays thru Sunday. Not a lot of social distancing there.

All is well here, but I still don’t have any onions, dammit.

Alphaville
Posts: 515
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Location: Walkscore 92, Bikescore 93

Re: COVID-19

Post by Alphaville »

EdithKeeler wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:21 pm
All is well here, but I still don’t have any onions, dammit.
get this while you still can:

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signatu ... 34981.html

works in soups, beans, stews, etc.

also blends well with cream cheese, sour cream, etc

-x

eta: apologies if you read pre-edit. im slightly fatigued. :oops:

steveo73
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Jean wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:58 pm
Were are you going to find those tests?
Testing isn't the solution because there won't be enough test kits. I personally want everyone to go into lockdown for a month apart from essential services across the world. If we can then starve this virus out it'd be fantastic.

I think that there is no chance of that happening and I think the best we will get is some form of social distancing and management of positive test cases that will flatten the curve. The amount of people who practice social-distancing and the ability of the various health systems within each country will determine the impact within various countries.

Socially responsible people + good health systems probably equals a flu like virus.
Socially irresponsible people + poor health systems probably equals catastrophe.

I think no matter the situation we are going to have an economic disaster however I assume most people on here will be okay dependent on their progress towards FI.

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