COVID-19

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

bigato wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:10 am
snip
I hope you stay safe.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

This is fairly amazing, and a confirmation of what I was saying pages and pages ago: since politicians handle (or are supposed to handle) these crisis situations, politics matter.

https://twitter.com/kfile/status/124013 ... 23842?s=21

How much damage has been done in the span of time between the initial stance and the complete 180?

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Jean
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

Girlfriend have been sick for the last week (cough, fever, breathing pain for a few days). It seems to be getting better, but one night was scary. It doesn't look dangerous anymore, but she still can't do much. Trying not to catch it is worth the effort.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... ov-2-67281

Monkeys develop immunity, there's hope for mankind

bostonimproper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Interesting Marist poll, asking a lot of good questions around coronavirus (Do people trust the news, the president, local officials? How have they changed their behavior?). LA Times noted that 18% of those polled have experienced layoffs or had hours cut due to the crisis.

naturelover
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Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

Community spread in my city. Things are starting to get locked down. Most businesses are closed and a lot of people are working from home. I've noticed in uptick in walkers, runners, and general activity in my neighborhood in the day. Much less plane noise and car traffic as well. I've been gradually pulling back my activities out and about and now am completely social distancing.

I worry that these measures won't last long, as the bills rack up for workers across the country. How long will we go before people just are broke? It's a tough balancing act but right now slowing this spread is paramount.

The attitude the hospital is taking worries me. They still allow visitors, and have a couple *ahem*..problems:

1. Masks are given out if you are lucky. You have to reuse them.
2. Doctors don't want to give tests, even though people present all the symptoms of COVID-19. Something is going on where administration is burying their head in the sand and are hush-hush. Luckily they are cancelling all elective surgeries for the next two months.

I have a barbell, rower, and kettlebells in the basement now. Going to keep up the exercise routine and beef up my conditioning. It will be good to keep my routine. Going to do a bit of running with the dog too. He will be happy.

mooretrees
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Re: COVID-19

Post by mooretrees »

My rural hospital is taking this increasingly more seriously. Visitors for most people (exceptions include birth partners, people picking up folks from surgeries) are not allowed. Temperature checks are required and cancelling most elective surgeries is likely to happen this week.

One new reality for hospitals is that blood donation drives are getting cancelled. This is really serious and scary as a healthcare worker. We are having conversations with clinicians about how to reduce blood transfusions. Once our current stock of blood starts to expire (April 8th at the earliest), I don't know if we will be getting restocked. But women are still pregnant and birth is still a dangerous time for losing large volumes of blood. GI bleeds will still happen to people and other serious situations that commonly require either emergency blood or large volumes of blood to prevent death are still bound to happen. I plan on donating blood if there is still a drive soon. DH is also, and he is O negative which is always a critical blood type. I'm not telling anyone else to donate, but just sharing this behind the scenes reality for us in the hospital.

onewayfamily
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Re: COVID-19

Post by onewayfamily »

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

Rate of comorbidity of various diseases from the study:
Ischemic heart disease 33.0%
Atrial fibrillation 24.5%
Stroke 9.6%
Arterial hypertension 76.1%
Diabetes mellitus 35.5%
Dementia 6.8%
COPD 13.2%
Active cancer in the past 5 years 20.3%
Chronic liver disease 3.1%
Chronic renal failure 18.0%

Source:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... italy-says

Study:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... rzo-v2.pdf

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

onewayfamily wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
Originally they had allowed students to remain in their dorms at or local universities until March 22 but yesterday abruptly changed this and told them they had to be out today. They said they plan to use the dorms as well as hotels as makeshift quarantine and/or hospital facilities. Also, we've had two cruise ships in the dock for the past few days. Normally they get out to sea asap as they are charged by the hour for being in port. I ran past them today and saw that they were taking on lots of supplies.

I wonder if they are shifting to a quarantine of those in high risk groups.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

ffj wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 am
This kind of reminds me of the early days of HIV to be honest. There was no internet back then to hyper-intensify every aspect but I remember clearly it was a pretty scary time with all of the unknowns. It would be an interesting study to compare the reactions and falsehoods that were later debunked in regards to that outbreak to the coronavirus.
The first world wide global event processed through social media. The macro diffused into the micro in real time. IMHO, the "scare" factor will turn out to be significant.

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

China is apparently sending outs lots of aid to the third world, as it has surplus capacity as the virus has abated there. Would the west accept help from China ? Chinese doctors and nurses with extensive experience of the virus ?

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

@chenda Italy already accepted 31 tons of medical supplies + 10 doctors. Apparently Italy sent doctors and aid for the Sichuan earthquake. They sent 15 tonnes. China returned double + 1. But yes, this is happening and imo is part of China solidifying its status as the new world power while the US is flailing and floundering. It's ironic that the (US) voter base who professes to be most "patriotic" elected the guy whose incompetence and funding cuts were responsible for this (this = US gradually losing its status as a world leader).

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

naturelover wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:05 am
1. Masks are given out if you are lucky. You have to reuse them.
2. Doctors don't want to give tests, even though people present all the symptoms of COVID-19. Something is going on where administration is burying their head in the sand and are hush-hush. Luckily they are cancelling all elective surgeries for the next two months.
1. Supplies are running out.
2. Not enough testing materials in the USA, particularly as case volume increases exponentially, so doctors are probably saving tests for severe cases. South Korea has performed 300,000 tests and USA has performed only a little over 32,000. Yes, private lab testing is taking place, but they're only able to do about 3,000 tests per day nationally and it will be another week before there's much ramp up (at least in Oregon).

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:26 pm
@chenda Italy already accepted 31 tons of medical supplies + 10 doctors. Apparently Italy sent doctors and aid for the Sichuan earthquake. They sent 15 tonnes. China returned double + 1. But yes, this is happening and imo is part of China solidifying its status as the new world power while the US is flailing and floundering. It's ironic that the (US) voter base who professes to be most "patriotic" elected the guy whose incompetence and funding cuts were responsible for this (this = US gradually losing its status as a world leader).
But lets not forget where this virus and its predecessors came from - due to the filthy and corrupt third world habits in China. All of this solidifies China's status as a third world country in my mind.

Sending medical support could be the absolute least China could do for Italy given that the filthy habits of China have created this whole problem - again. However people should be somewhat cautious about the extent of reliance on Chinese support, given the lower standards of competence and medical innovation

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

@ertyu interesting

@thrifty Not sure what 'filthy habits' you are referring to but public health problems are hardly unique to China, nor is it probably helpful to start a blame game...

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

@thrifty: also, "trird world" people aren't any less people than you.

Peanut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

@Thrifty: You’ve been yammering about this for a while. We get it, you blame China and the Chinese. Take a seat next to Trump.

On a more practical note, Osterholm described the close proximity of exotic wildlife in the wet markets as an experiment nobody would ever be allowed to run. I don’t see why China wouldn’t want to start tightly regulating or shut them down altogether. What is authoritarianism for anyway? I’m a little surprised nobody has made this point. Osterholm did also point out that bushmeat consumed in Africa for example would be prone to the same development so getting rid of all pathways to the creation of novel viruses is impossible.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

On why china has had issues with controlling the wet markets:

Authoritarianism in china is very strange. There is quite an element of "god is high, the emperor is far" to it; while technically many regulations exist, there are often issues with applying them because at the grassroots level, the system is actually run by a local web of connections and relationships causing things to get "overlooked." The central government has a lot of control, but at the same time, state monopolies and local gvt officials play cat and mouse with them all the time. Recommend "china's great wall of debt" as a book that in addition to discussing debt places it in the context of china's diffuse relationships of power. Another recommendation highlighting how power in china works: the documentary "under the dome" which highlights some of the challenges with enforcing pollution laws. should be somewhere on youtube.

In general, to rant about how disgusting and third world china is because of the practices of some of its people is kind of like going to the states, then going, idk, in rural mississippi, finding a bunch of crackheads who live in the stench of the local slaughterhouse and have a communal shit bucket, and using those people to characterize "America." Yes, those people exist - enough of them exist to become a stereotype. But also, some of the most forward thinkers and scientists in the world today are american.

Now that the wet markets have become a serious problem, I believe the ban will be enforced. Time will tell, though. Many people believe the ban will only force the practice underground.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

There's a tendency to classify those behaviors that one does not oneself engage in as nasty. Bad behaviors for zoonotic epidemics from the perspective of humans are:
  • Encroaching on nature - humans cutting down forests to build housing in "natural surroundings".
  • Non-necessary air travel - tourists and business people flitting around the world allowing for rapid transmission .
  • Individualism and free public movement - why the west is in deeper shit than China/the east is and was.
  • Having babies and growing our population - the enormous and still growing biomass of humans constitute about 30% of all vertebrate biomass now... an enormous food source for vira and bacteria. It's very easy to infect other humans when they're nearby.
  • Wet markets - mixing nature with other nature (e.g. bats and ducks) and humans in pursuit of culinary experiences.
  • Eating meat - domesticated animals make up an astounding 60%+ of vertebrate biomass... an even greater bacterial and viral food source and part of the reason we use so much antibiotics (most go to livestock), developing superbugs in the process.
Of course these are all good habits from the perspective of an infectious disease as they expand the food supply of delicious humans. Of course one could also argue that this [pandemic] is just a natural process. Before antibiotics and public sanitation measures, it actually was. We might have reached the point in terms of our numbers and general behavior where these measures are not enough anymore for the world we've created.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

Eh, we still more than likely have a recession on the way for the entire world, which will also hurt China as well as it still depends on outside trade. If Depression becomes actualized, any good will people had for China, from delaying this virus will be gone. There has already been talks about countries who can afford to take their medical production "in-house" will try to, with Germany already discussing this recently in the past couple of weeks and I imagine EU as a whole will soon be bringing it up as well. USA will probably be doing so as well depending on how bad it is.

China still has other problems such as debt woes, African Swine Flu still kicking about inflating pork prices, the knock-off effects of the One Child Policy will be kicking in soon causing a social security crunch as the old quickly outnumber the young. If China is going to ascendant during the 2020's, it has rocky road ahead of it. And that is not including climate change.

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