COVID-19

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theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@Ego- No I haven't seen anything more recent either. The increased NSAID use may be due to the ineffectiveness of those against this virus. My stepdad has been taking tylenol/advil etc to try and break the fever but it has not worked. It is day 10.


Regarding Italy, it seems there's 3,590 new cases and 368 deaths. There is no decrease in growth rate. The hospitals don't appear to be able to manage this at all. This is not good.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

This from Francois Balloux, a computational biologist. An important point that should not be forgotten
Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim.
Image

and
The most plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now.

Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity.

Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold and MERS).

How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic.

Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns.

The covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so.

horsewoman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by horsewoman »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:55 pm
French and German ICU physicians have noted that a common thread among young people needing ICU admission as a result of COVID-19 is that they have been taking large doses of NSAIDS.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/corona ... s-20200314
This seems to be fake news. There was an audio clip widely shared over WhatsApp in which an unnamed Austrian woman claimed that this information came from the Uniklinik Vienna. The Uniklinik gave out a statement that they have not done any studies on this nor given out any information.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

@Ego - I understand that the economic impact could be severe however isn't it better for everyone to bunker down for a couple of weeks and see how this virus develops. If in a fortnight's time everything isn't that bad then maybe we can just practice social distancing for a while.

There are a lot of unknowns in relation to the virus however I heard two experts talking on the Sam Harris podcast and one comment I remember was that one of them believed that a vaccine will be more like a vaccine for the measles rather than a vaccine for the flu. His point was you may only need one or one and a booster shot as a vaccine for this virus for protection for life.

I think if we can flatten the curve of this thing via social distancing and isolate older people (in my opinion they should self-isolate) then we can get through this thing without too much impact. Sure the markets will crash but they will also recover. The virus isn't like Ebola and we don't have to wipe out large swathes of the population but there is the potential for significant human impact.

My personal opinion based on the information available now is that this virus isn't that bad if you can somehow minimize the virus spreading and therefore not overburden the health care system.

My jiu-jitsu instructor didn't even mention the virus the other day and appears to completely not give a shit. This attitude to me is where the potential problem lies. If too many people don't give a shit it could spread out of control and the health system can breakdown.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Cases in Las Vegas have finally exploded. They've had 3 up until Thursday and as of last night, they shot up to 16. 3 cases up in Reno area and one more in, I think, Sparks. So they went from 4-5 state-wide to 20 in about 2 days.

A racer I know sent a Saturday night selfie from Frontier Casino's outdoor mall (downtown Las Vegas) and it was jam packed with people <shudder>. He's a hyperactive extrovert and knows he'll be isolating with his family at home come Monday since schools are closed. His wife, here at home, had stronger words.

My interest in Las Vegas was an autocross to happen in 2 weeks, but it was canceled by the organizers.

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

I don't want to add to the doomsday fire but 'The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire' by Kyle Harper is a topical read. Short review here: https://acornabbey.com/blog/?p=11384

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:31 am
My gut response is telling me that I've contracted the disease...
Flow chart for what to do if you believe you contracted the virus...

Image

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Bankai wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:41 am
Inverting this, would you self-isolate for 18 months to gain 6-8 weeks of life? Probably the answer depends on how introverted you are, but for most people, my guess is the answer would be 'no'.
Self-isolation is doing your part to avoid being an asymptomatic spreader and overloading the heath care system. Once that happens the death rate for everything goes up. A 25 yo could die of appendicitis because it wasn't detected due to an overloaded ER. A 30 yo who got severely injured in a traffic accident with a 40% chance of survival would be ceding their ICU bed at the triage station to a 55 yo coronapatient with an 80% chance of survival. Doctors and surgeons might not even be around if they're in quarantine because they caught it because they ran out of masks or whatever. Mothers might die in childbirth again. Maybe you accidentally pricked your finger on a rusty nail, didn't clean it well enough, and got blood poisoning, but again, no ICUs left. And so on.

Coronavirus is basically a threat multiplier on overall health risks because it's capable of crashing the health care system and will likely do so in many countries because humans gotta human. It's not just an isolated disease that mostly kills old people (which is bad enough in itself). The point with isolation is to #flattenthecurve until the system can ramp up. Isolation may only last 3-6 months if we're lucky.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Others have mentioned ascorbic acid AA (Vitamin C) as a prophylactic.

-----

Dysregulation of immune response in patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 48/5803306

Study of severe vs non-severe cases in China.
Severe cases tend to have lower lymphocytes counts, higher leukocytes counts and neutrophil-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR), as well as lower percentages of monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils.
Influence of Vitamin C on Lymphocytes: An Overview
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5874527/
In summary, an increasing body of evidence indicates that AA positively influences lymphocyte development and function. Since AA is a safe and cheap nutritional supplement....

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:40 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 11a Sat, Mar 14
- 36 Positives
- 420 Negatives
- 225 Pending
- 333 Currently Monitoring
- 364 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 9 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 13 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 2 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 9 35-54
- 23 55+

Hospitalized Cases
- 13 Yes
- 23 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 4 Yes
- 32 No
I don't know why, but it seems to take 3-4 hours before the stats are posted to the web site. And here's announcement about changing the way they're reporting:
Beginning March 15, 2020, the Oregon Health Authority is updating the way we report COVID-19 cases in Oregon. Results from the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory no longer require confirmation through CDC. Because testing has expanded to include commercial laboratories, we are receiving results from multiple sources throughout the day. Also, OHA no longer receives detailed information about specific symptoms and severity of all people being tested for COVID-19 infection.

In an effort to get the most accurate and most current information to Oregonians, we will update statewide cases once a day.

Our updates on cases will include:
  • Cases from the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory​.

    Cases from commercial and out-of-state labs.

    Because confirmation from CDC is no longer required, we will simply report total number of cases and will remove earlier information about CDC confirmatory testing.

    Because reporting about travel and nature of illness isn’t available for cases reported from commercial labs, we are removing hospitalization status and information about travel to a country where COVID-19 is circulating.

    We will continue to track and report COVID-19 deaths.
Oregon Health Authority as of noon Sun, Mar 15
- 39 Positives
- 579 Negatives
- 182 Pending
- 355 Currently Monitoring
- 366 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 10 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 13 Washington (Hillsboro)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 3 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 10 35-54
- 24 55+

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:46 pm
State of Washington published count as of 2:45p Sat, 14 Mar
- 642 Positives
- 7122 Negatives
- 40 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 6 Island (Coupeville)
- 1 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 387 King (Seattle)
- 3 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 26 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 4 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 154 Snohomish (Everett)
- 3 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 4 Yakima (Yakima)
- 39 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 11% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 15% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 18% 70-79
- 20% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 54% Female
- 43% Male
- 3% Unknown
127 new cases; I was hopeful that they'd stay around 100.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sun, 15 Mar
- 769 Positives
- 9451 Negatives
- 42 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 6 Island (Coupeville)
- 3 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 420 King (Seattle)
- 3 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 29 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 4 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 176 Snohomish (Everett)
- 3 Spokane (Spokane)
- 3 Thurston (Olympia)
- 3 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 4 Yakima (Yakima)
- 104 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 11% 30-39
- 12% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 14% 60-69
- 18% 70-79
- 20% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 53% Female
- 43% Male
- 4% Unknown

Peanut
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

Guardian reporting that 15% of C-19 deaths in Iran are under 40s. Of course their general numbers have also looked suspect to observers.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

"All Covid-19 patients sick enough for hospitalization should be given a cheap, quick, and readily available serum ferritin blood test. Indeed, elevated serum ferritin values have recently been reported in Chinese hospitalized patients with Covid-19. This is a good first screening tool for the possibility of a cytokine storm syndrome in sick patients with high fevers."

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/ ... eport.html

CajunQueen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CajunQueen »

Two deaths today due to CV in Louisiana. The governor, John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency on Wed 3/11, closed schools Fri 3/13, and Sun 3/15 recommended that everyone over 60 years of age should quarantine immediately.

In New Orleans, the St. Patrick's day parade was canceled so everyone had a block party on Bourbon St instead. Police called to disburse, now the Mayor has special rules for bars & restaurants to limit hours and capacity.

https://wgno.com/news/health/coronaviru ... atherings/

I'm expecting the special tanker trucks they use to spray disinfectant on the streets after Mardi Gras will be deployed soon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKiRKUXFvwY 1:49

mooretrees
Posts: 207
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Re: COVID-19

Post by mooretrees »

jacob wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:48 pm
Self-isolation is doing your part to avoid being an asymptomatic spreader and overloading the heath care system. Once that happens the death rate for everything goes up. A 25 yo could die of appendicitis because it wasn't detected due to an overloaded ER. A 30 yo who got severely injured in a traffic accident with a 40% chance of survival would be ceding their ICU bed at the triage station to a 55 yo coronapatient with an 80% chance of survival. Doctors and surgeons might not even be around if they're in quarantine because they caught it because they ran out of masks or whatever. Mothers might die in childbirth again. Maybe you accidentally pricked your finger on a rusty nail, didn't clean it well enough, and got blood poisoning, but again, no ICUs left. And so on.

Coronavirus is basically a threat multiplier on overall health risks because it's capable of crashing the health care system and will likely do so in many countries because humans gotta human. It's not just an isolated disease that mostly kills old people (which is bad enough in itself). The point with isolation is to #flattenthecurve until the system can ramp up. Isolation may only last 3-6 months if we're lucky.
I can tell you that I am seeing the increased workload in our hospital laboratory due to corona virus. We have extra precautions for dealing with those specimens (work under the hood + universal precautions) which slows you down and amps up the anxiety. I'll see what this week is like, hopefully we still have all of the ability to run the extra tests (RSV, Influenza) as we were getting low on supplies. We haven't had a positive case yet in our county, but it seems like a matter of time. We're a small hospital and could quickly get overwhelmed with an influx of patients. Normally, we are really here to triage patients and either stabilize them or transfer them to a larger, better equipped hospital.

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

We’re doomed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... 3famp=true
“But I just want to say, one of the things you can do: if you’re healthy, you and your family, it’s a great time to go out and go to a local restaurant, likely you can get in easy,” said Nunes. “Let’s not hurt the working people in this country that are relying on wages and tips to keep their small business going… Don’t just run to the grocery store and buy $4,000 of food. Go to your local pub.”

daylen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by daylen »

Tactics and strategy for avoiding infection: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0Ae0mjMljs

Colibri
Posts: 63
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Location: Northern Canada

Re: COVID-19

Post by Colibri »

CS wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:21 pm
"All Covid-19 patients sick enough for hospitalization should be given a cheap, quick, and readily available serum ferritin blood test. Indeed, elevated serum ferritin values have recently been reported in Chinese hospitalized patients with Covid-19. This is a good first screening tool for the possibility of a cytokine storm syndrome in sick patients with high fevers."

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/ ... eport.html

An elevated serum ferritin only means that you either have too much iron (Hemochromatosis) or you have inflammation in your body. Any inflammation. That's it. Many chronic conditions cause inflammation, not just Covid-19. The news article is misleading.

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Italy about to implement relief measures to soften the economic blow from COVID

- any company of any size under stress can put in "cassa integrazione" employees for up 9 weeks. What this is is basically a temporary layoff where the state pays a percentage (50 to 70% usually) of the salary via subsidy. Employees keep their right to the job.

- mortgage payments for the main residence are delayed for up to 18 months for people under duress

- one shot 500€ contribution for all self employed and temp workers

- Tax payments delayd until May 31st for people under duress

- Extra parental leave of 15 days, paid at 50% salary, or, in alternative, 600€ one shot contribution to pay for baby sitter

- Rent paid by businesses becomes 60% tax deductible for March

thrifty++
Posts: 1052
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

I guess thinking long term, the countries that get hard hit, like Italy, might be better able than we think to withstand the economic shock of investing in people and the economy at large because there will be substantially less long term costs on the healthcare and welfare system with less pensions and less elderly healthcare costs.

So, more upfront spending now, but a lot less over the next decade. I know its a bit dark to think of it this way, but its the reality and a long term silver lining of this thing.

Its funny how we can have a collection of big concerns like global warming and how we are going to manage sustaining pensions into the future for future generations, and then a giant curve ball like this knocks everything sideways and those concerns seem less imminent or not concerns at all.

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