COVID-19

Health, Fitness, Insurance, ...
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AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

I had said Peak Prosperity was being too alarmist. I officially take that back. They're on the ball with criticizing the abysmal response by US authorities.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Perhaps it's a mistake in phrasing public messaging in terms of exponential growth, CFRs, hospital capacity, etc. and trying to walk people through that. For example, with investing it was eventually realized that rather than trying to educate people about their investment options, hoping they'd pick the right one, it was better just to auto-enroll them in a target date fund and let them opt-out instead if they wanted something else.

Maybe when talking to non-wonks or those who are mangry (math angry) or ideologically driven, it's better to communicate the evolving situation as a decision tree (flow chart) in terms of what different countries have already done taking advantage of not being the first.

Step 1) When the first cases arrive a country can either test like crazy (like South Korea) and likely succeed in hunting down the infected before community infection takes over; OR they can try to play it down like Europe or ignore/hide the data like China in which case community spreading will take hold.

Step 2) If community spreading takes hold, a country can either clamp down strongly like China which demonstrably results in a control case rate... or they can take a measured approached like the US, Norway, France, Italy, etc.

Step 3) When the moderate measures fail, and the health care system is about to get overrun, the country can either lock down like Italy or ...

I guess the rest of the story is still being written. I guess we'll see how it worked out a few weeks from now.

Or perhaps people find themselves unable to relate to the experience of other countries because of national exceptionalism? Actually, that will probably be the case. Back to the drawing board.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Is the US health care system the least suited to handle a situation like this? Incentives are just not there, right? If you don't have an insurance and have symptoms, you aren't going to the hospital because you can't afford the bill. Instead, you keep spreading. Similarly, people with high deductibles are more likely to disregard symptoms as 'cold' or 'flu' until they get really bad while spreading in the meantime. Perhaps national ('free') health care and a bit of central planning might have an advantage here?

EdithKeeler
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

We have 7 cases in Tennessee, 2 here in Memphis. One person somehow had contact with a school.

I expect my employer is going to tell us to start working from home shortly; they tested the capacity of our system last night to make sure everything still works if we log in from home.

I got 2 calls from my mom’s nursing home today: first one said, essentially “don’t visit if you’re sick.” Follow up call was “don’t visit unless it’s an absolute emergency and we’re not going to let you into patients’ rooms.”

I wasn’t nervous before, but I’m starting to worry a bit, especially because DBF is coming into town on Friday and we’ll be going out a good bit.

And then, of course, there’s this (yes, here in Memphis...) I love the person with the crazy costume and bags on her feet... but her mask isn’t covering her nose. Pretty sure the human race is doomed....

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/s ... 6084629506

Then there’s “nah, I’m not gonna wash my hands.” And “if people pray, they’ll be ok.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wreg.com/n ... ut-it/amp/
Last edited by EdithKeeler on Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

den18
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Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:14 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by den18 »

CDC has updated their recommendations. It looks like they are admitting that they can not control the spread and to prepare for a lot of people to get infected.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/09/man ... xelIhWeVOM

Jin+Guice
Posts: 787
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@Bankai: c_L probably knows more about this than me, but hospitals don't turn away emergency patients to my knowledge. It's more like you get saddled with debt for the rest of your life. The U.S. healthcare system is pretty weak, but it's not as bad as most Europeans I know think it is. I know there are still a lot of uninsured people out there, but Obamacare and the medicaid expansion made a material difference in terms of getting more people insurance.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

den18 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:50 pm
CDC has updated their recommendations.
Harumph! Aren't they pretty much the same as the ERE community decided a week or two ago? :twisted:

George the original one
Posts: 5366
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

bigato wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 pm
Meanwhile our president is saying that there is too much fear mongering by the media and that this is not so serious as people are thinking.
Are Trump and your president clones separated at birth?

steveo73
Posts: 1427
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

I've just been informed we have to work from home 1 week and then from the office the next week. I already work from home every Thursday so now I will be in office 4 days out of 10.

It's fantastic.

OTCW
Posts: 433
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:55 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by OTCW »

EdithKeeler wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:42 pm
We have 7 cases in Tennessee, 2 here in Memphis. One person somehow had contact with a school.

I expect my employer is going to tell us to start working from home shortly; they tested the capacity of our system last night to make sure everything still works if we log in from home.

I got 2 calls from my mom’s nursing home today: first one said, essentially “don’t visit if you’re sick.” Follow up call was “don’t visit unless it’s an absolute emergency and we’re not going to let you into patients’ rooms.”

I wasn’t nervous before, but I’m starting to worry a bit, especially because DBF is coming into town on Friday and we’ll be going out a good bit.

And then, of course, there’s this (yes, here in Memphis...) I love the person with the crazy costume and bags on her feet... but her mask isn’t covering her nose. Pretty sure the human race is doomed....

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/s ... 6084629506

Then there’s “nah, I’m not gonna wash my hands.” And “if people pray, they’ll be ok.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wreg.com/n ... ut-it/amp/
Follow Prince Mongo's lead. Wisest man in Memphis.

EdithKeeler
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Follow Prince Mongo's lead. Wisest man in Memphis
He ran for Mayor again last year.

Jin+Guice
Posts: 787
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@EK: "But doctors say praying won’t be enough to protect you from this latest outbreak, which has already killed almost 4,000 people worldwide."

At least someone is having fun.

EdithKeeler
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

I’m thinking about postponing DBF’s visit. He’s 69, so at a higher risk of death. And I know we’ll be going out a lot while he’s here, out among the (apparently literally) Great Unwashed.

I dunno. Part of me says I’m overreacting, the other part of me says “they freakin’ closed Italy!!”

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

Then there’s “nah, I’m not gonna wash my hands.” And “if people pray, they’ll be ok.”
Washing hands is kind of like praying with hands folded.

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Ego
Posts: 5153
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Looking ahead, viral respiratory infections often come in two waves.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237 ... 20672.html

This study speculates why the second wave happens:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... 60343.s001

Some reasons why:
-changing contact rates
-the virus mutates
-differences in human immunity
-waning immunity

and others....

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C40
Posts: 2588
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

Out here in SE Asia, I've gotten a bit worried about visa changes. In Vietnam, they will not grant any visas to incoming citizens of Europe, UK, China, Korea, or Iran. I read that they will do the same for countries that have over 500 cases or 50 new cases per day. The U.S. is past 500 (and likely 50/day), but I haven't read about them stopping for U.S. citizens yet. I've heard that they will allow citizens of those countries who are already in Vietnam to extend their visa by 3 months one time inside the country. I'm thinking, if I want to stay here to buckle down for a while, I'll try get a new 3 month entry (~visa) by going to the border this weekend, and then would have the option to extend another 3 months

The other thing I'm considering is going back to the U.S., where everything is more familiar which may be better for me if/when things get crazier. One problem with that is I canceled my health insurance for 2020 in January (uh, probably a bad idea in hindsight) in order to not have to pay a bunch for it because I sold a lot of stocks that month (a very good idea in hindsight) and have large capital gains and increase income this year

sky
Posts: 1247
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:20 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

I heard Viet Nam closed it's land borders to US citizens yesterday.
...
PSA Vietnam closed land borders for people from EU and USA. I just got kicked off the bus this morning

I'm based in Cambodia and have to do a visa run. Bus from Phnom Penh to Ho Chi Minh is by far the easiest option, but after boarding the bus they told everyone Vietnam closed the land border for European and US citizens. I personally haven't been out of Asia for months, but that doesn't matter apparently. They gave us the option to stay on the bus, but on case they won't let us through we're on our own.

I'm looking at flights now, as apparently the airport does allow entry

https://www.reddit.com/r/digitalnomad/c ... ople_from/

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C40
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Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

I can't find confirmation about them closing to U.S. citizens yet. (just 8 EU countries, China, Iran, and Korea).

The visa run company I've organized a border trip with for this Saturday (3 days from now) says that Vietnam is still issuing visas for U.S. citizens. They did say one border crossing towards the south end of Vietnam is shut down (in some amount) because they weren't following health testing/declaration protocols. Maybe that person was expecting to go here. Or maybe they are from one of those EU countries and just added the U.S.

IDK.. The US is far over the numbers that Vietnam set for closing countries, so I expect it will happen. Maybe they'll also do some accounting for the population of countries as well. My landlord has told me a few times that U.S. citizens get much better treatment from the Vietnam government than others. Maybe that is or will be a factor also, but I'm sure, only for so long and not all that long. Vietnam seems to be doing a good job of quarantining and now blocking entry to protect its people.

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

(Sorry if any of this has already been posted...)

Status of first RI case: middle-aged man with asthma but otherwise healthy, required ICU and came "one inch from death".
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronaviru ... 6?mod=e2fb

Status of first CT case: middle-aged man with a heart condition, now in a coma.
https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Wi ... 120356.php

New England is not off to a very good start!

Why is South Korea CFR so low? Check out the high young-old and female-male ratios:
https://twitter.com/Barton_options/stat ... 2288211971

Also Ben Hunt's (Epsilon Theory) Twitter feed has been full of details I have not seen elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Riggerjack »

Why is South Korea CFR so low?
South Korea has done the most testing, so their number of infected is closer to reality than anyone else. High denominator means more accurate CFR.

By comparison, Italy is over 5% CFR.

I tried to explain the math to an engineer who was spouting the 'it's just a bad flu, and the real flu is deadlier" line. Either covad is far deadlier than 1% mortality, or it's far more common than we know.

Either way, it's nowhere near as bad as a bad flu, but way worse than seasonal flu.

Basic, back of the envelope division is too much for people to process. Talking about infection curves vs recovery curves is way outside of their capabilities.

I hate taking my headphones off at work, my low opinions of my coworkers just get lower.

Oddly, all the "dumb rednecks" I know all have their prep together, and are settling in for the sky to fall. It's all the educated/domesticated that somehow can't process change.

Co-worker still flying out Friday for vacation, still getting congrats about upcoming travel... :?

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