COVID-19

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ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Will wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:26 pm
What would you do?
I have struggled with this over the past couple of weeks as well. Stepping out, it seems the problem arises because our normal, automated decision-making breaks down in these circumstances. We have automated making decisions based on a certain set of assumptions about how the world is: namely, normal. But now, the world is not normal.

It is difficult to see this because people are not yet dropping dead immediately out the window. But we're in a different paradigm that requires different habits and different criteria against which to test our decisions. Here is an example from a different paradigm change: when the world wars broke out, the winners were those who left behind all their belongings, picked themselves up, and immigrated to matter the cost. The question, "do I take my belongings and move" now has a completely different premises on the basis of which you arrive at an answer. Thus the answer is different. The winners are those who (1) recognize what the new paradigm is about and (2) confidently and decisively take action in it in spite of how uncomfortable it feels to make decisions against what we are used to as "rational" and "normal"

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Speaking in terms of exponential growth and ignoring any negative feedback terms, the case doubling time for the world ex-Chine is 4 days.

The current ex-China count as of Sat Mar 7th is 25000 so starting with that, we can predict the future...
caseload ~ 25000*exp(daysfromtoday*ln(2)/4) or 1 week = 84k, 2 weeks = 282k, 4 weeks = 3.2M, 6 weeks = 36M, 8 weeks = 409M, ... with the world population maxing out at T+73 days from now.

Should be noted that the doubling time in China is 21 days on account of having more negative feedback terms in the system at this point (quarantine, longer history of testing). Thus expect the doubling time to increase over time. This curve would thus be an upper limit.

Insofar the future is trending towards China and nothing gets better than the Chinese measures are at this point, then we can take T_2=21 days as a lower limit, which looks less scary! In that case caseload ~ 105000*exp(daysfromtoday*ln(2)/21) ... where it will take 68 days to hit the first million and about 11 months to reach the world population.

However, presumably the Chinese doubling time numbers are still improving? If so, the spread could slow even more. However, with vaccines not expected for the next 12-18 months, this is definitely taking it right to the edge.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

jacob wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:12 pm
However, presumably the Chinese doubling time numbers are still improving? If so, the spread could slow even more. However, with vaccines not expected for the next 12-18 months, this is definitely taking it right to the edge.
The questions to me are:-

1. Can the rest of the world slow the spread of the virus ala what China appears to have done.
2. China is going to start relaxing the lock down soon/now and will the virus start spreading again ? A girl at work is Chinese and her dad is a teacher who is expecting to start school again soon.
3. How bad will the virus be from a mortality perspective ? Is is with better health care likely to remain below 1% or will it be higher than this. I think the Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 2.5%.
4. How quickly can we develop an effective vaccine ?

I think the answers are going to happen over the course of the next couple of years and hopefully it won't be that bad but I think the unknown is freaking people out.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Image

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

That epidemic curve is extremely not reassuring. :?

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

I have heard a couple of times that some experiments are being done with HIV medication to combat Covid19.

Its popular in the gay community for people to take whats called "PREP" - Pre Exposure Prophylaxis. Its a pill you take each day which prevents you contracting HIV. These days HIV seems quite a non event in the western world and seems as though its dying out. I have never wanted to take the prep as I hate sticking extra drugs into my system - but am now starting to think about taking it if there is a dual purpose - which prevents the contraction of Covid19. A doctor friend of mine was talking about it also.

I cant seem to find any good information about this online - anyone else happen to have heard about this?

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Lobster market pinched as prices plummet because of coronavirus outbreak
In most years, North America ships millions of pounds of lobsters to China for the Lunar New Year celebration, Bloomberg reported. But this year, the coronavirus outbreak in China meant limited imports and a lot of lobsters stuck behind in Canada and the U.S.
https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiig ... id=US%3Aen

:P I smell an opportunity for a cheap(er) and delicious meal!

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

@thrifty++ - That is correct. They are doing some phase 3 trails with antiretrovirals to see if they can help with coronavirus. If successful, these drugs could be given like tamiflu in early stages of infection to reduce morbidity and mortality.

HIV infection is commonly treated with ART - "Antiretroviral therapy." PREP is the same drugs as ART except at a lower dose. These drugs work by blocking HIV's ability to hijack cell genomes. Being a retrovirus, HIV has a single strand of RNA that it has to insert into a cell's genome. Except human cells don't understand RNA; they only understand DNA. So HIV has to make an enzyme that turns RNA into DNA. ART/PREP works by blocking this HIV enzyme, thus stopping it from infecting a cell.

It's believed the same mechanism could work on SARS-CoV-2. While SARS-CoV-2 is a regular RNA virus and not a retrovirus, these medications might still work on it by blocking the RNA genome in the same way. Hence why they are doing some trails to see if this would really be effective.

I'm not a doctor, but I don't know if I can suggest taking it to prevent COVID-19. It might help to have some of these ART drugs on hand in the event you believe you've been exposed. Like Tamiflu, if you take them immediately at infection onset, it has a chance to reduce morbidity/mortality. But ART/PREP drugs also have side effects, and we don't know for sure if they're effective yet.

I also expect there to be a lot of shortage of antiretrovirals in the near future if they do in fact prove to be effective. This could potentially harm HIV patients who would have a harder time getting access to the medications due to shortages. Hopefully they can massively scale up production.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

It has been reported that 70 of the 180 employees of the skilled nursing facility in Seattle where the outbreak occurred are showing symptoms of Covid infection.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Jesus, that nursing home situation is just so awful and tragic. I feel so bad for all the employees, the residents, and their families.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Ego wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:15 pm
@sclass, I agree that something may impede the growth rate. The most likely impediment is quarantine/isolation.
Hey, I take back what I said...if I can do that. Her analysis will probably track for long enough to really mess things up for us. The force that usually messes up predator prey models is you run out of prey. Like no more DNA for COVID 19 to hijack. So really this is a very ugly situation.

For instance, it won’t take much to mess up the ERs in LA. I actually have a lot experience with those because I took my mom in many times during her last two years of life. Usually for pneumonia. It was crowded. Twice we got transferred away from Kaiser DTLA to the San Fernando Valley or to Culver City because there was just no room for her. And this was under normal conditions.

When she did get a bed I’d pace around. Tons of old people in gurneys getting attention. Few young people. Few empty rooms and beds. Getting admitted to the hospital from the ER was another hurdle that would take a day of waiting. I guess that is when we got transferred.

The system has no capacity beyond the regular flow. It is optimized for the hum drum day to day admissions. I think the point of the exponential twitter feed was to say this system will be easily overwhelmed in a couple of months. I actually think it could happen sooner. She gives the hospitals way too much credit.

Looking back on some predator prey models I did for college numerical analysis class I recall there being coupled rates as well as resource limitations that caused reversals in population growth or decline. You’d get exponential for a period then you’d get a crash or an oscillation. It was kind of eye opening getting beyond a simple N(t) = exp(t) solution with a little bit of incremental iteration on a computer. Although I am dreaming of something like a Singapore effect slowing down the virus I’m afraid it’s going to be more like running out of victims or reducing mobility of victims because sick immobile people cannot easily transmit disease. Perhaps a fear term coupled with a late overproduction of fashion masks used in daily wear like in SARs Hong Kong can create an inflection.

Or worse, the rise in cases breeds a population of Jack boot government squads that round up and eliminate the prey.

That being said I’m starting to get scared.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

34 confirmed , 15 suspected. Passengers arriving from China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Hongkong, Vietnam, Nepal and Indonesia would be segregated from other arriving passengers.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Evidence keeps piling up.
https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf68 ... SocialFlow

"The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan this week as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan. "

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

If this thing kills approx 18% of the 80+ people it infects (source - a tweet screenshot on r/coronavirus) and it's going endemic, actuarial tables/life expectancy might change. We now need less of a stash, FI/ERErs!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I am 55 with history of severe asthma which is particularly triggered by respiratory infections. There are currently no documented cases in my region. My plan is to continue working/living/organizing in urban area for 2 more weeks. Then I will go to rural area where I will be living in a shed in the woods. I believe I will have an additional week or two in the rural location during which it will still be relatively safe to go to Walmart and stock or gear up further etc. There are two rural hospitals within hour drive of this location. Does this seem like a rational plan?

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Why not now?
What is the advantage in delaying?

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Report on Covid from the Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care:
“It may be necessary to place an age limit on entry into intensive care. It is not a question of making merely value choices, but of reserving resources that could be very scarce for those in the community primis more probability of survival and secondly to those who can have more years of life saved, with a view to maximizing the benefits for the greatest number of people “
So, I will ask the same question again. Imagine that your city or town is experiencing what Lombardy is experiencing. What tools do you want?
Last edited by Ego on Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

@7w5, go now. this shit will erupt all at once - it seems like you have time until you don't.

@ego: oxygen concentrator.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

@Ego: the freedom to decide I can hunker down at home for a month in a relatively remote area.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Sclass wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:55 pm
Looking back on some predator prey models I did for college numerical analysis class I recall there being coupled rates as well as resource limitations that caused reversals in population growth or decline.
Take a look at the SIR-model. It's very similar to the Lotka-Volterra model except it has an extra equation that removes recovered part of the population from the dynamics. Also SIR presumes that the human prey is not going to outbreed the spread of the virus. In reality, that's inaccurate for some diseases. These are the childhood diseases and that's the reason they come in waves and why herd immunity is a thing. If would also be off if immunity is not permanent.

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