COVID-19

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jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@theanimal - 30 gallons and a Berkey. How long that lasts definitely depends on the season and whether it's hot or cold outside. One hole in this plan is of course that the food we store (rice and beans) require material amounts of water to cook. For pandemic related matters I think that "keeping the utilities on" would be a matter of very high priority for the powers that be. Thus the water storage is more in case the utilities screw up, e.g. giardia in the water supply.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Ego wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:57 pm
Thoughts?
If you haven't watched the Clade-X exercise posted above yet ... ?

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jennypenny
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jennypenny »

jacob wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:09 pm
If you haven't watched the Clade-X exercise posted above yet ... ?
which video? (it's hard to keep track of all the links in this thread)

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Clade X: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream

Whitehouse Task force has just mentioned they expect COVID-19 to go into a second season next year too, hence major need for a vaccine. The technology they're using for the vaccine is pretty cool stuff. It's called an mRNA vaccine, and it's faster to produce because they don't grow the entire virus. They just make messenger RNA that tricks your cells into making virus proteins which then triggers the immune response.

ETA: task force also mentioned FDA expects disruptions to medical supply chains.
Last edited by AnalyticalEngine on Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Thanks, all. The advantage of living in a place with frozen ground, no city water and minimal plumbing is that almost everyone has a large water tank or storage on hand. Most single family homes have at least 500 gal tanks. I have only ~20 gal capacity myself but I'm going to increase that this week. I go through about ~15-20 gal/week. I figure a month's worth is probably a good start.

ToFI
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

Here's a good report on stock market returns during global pandemics:
http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stee ... ndemic.pdf

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

jacob wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:55 pm
Actually we have fast and good for those who can afford it and third-world standards for those who can't.
It is true that you can get treatment even if you can't afford it and that there are people who get the short end of the stick. Though that is true in other systems. A slower system like in Canada has illnesses that could be treated early be allowed to progress. A system that isn't as good would struggle with complicated or severe cases.
However, this arrangement changes the equation significantly when it comes to public health and issues like infectious diseases where the fragility is more determined by the lowest common denominator which in this case is scarily low. Basically, your risk of getting infected is not based on what you can afford but what your "neighbors" can afford.
Specifically your risk increases if they can't afford to stay home. As far as medical treatment, it's mostly supportive. They won't do much except isolate you* unless you have pneumonia. It may not be a feel good thought :evil:, but if they are last in line for oxygen or ventilator in pneumonia cases that mostly affect their mortality rate not your infection chances as it is unlikely they are roaming about at that point.

*easy enough to do on your own

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »


ToFI
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

In China, they got a fairly good control of the virus. Outside of Hubei, the new case number dropped to almost 0 over the past few days. (18) However, in Wuhan,Hubei area, the new case number is still significant. (few hundreds). I think it's almost impossible to completely remove this virus. It's likely to remain in a low infection level for a long time except the hot summer weather can kill it off.

They start to gradually restart production outside of Hubei. The capacity won't be 100%, more like 70% capacity for the next few months. I don't expect products to be completely shut off from supply chain. It's more of reduced supply and longer ETA of productions. It's like the Intel CPU shortage. It's annoying but not catastrophic for businesses which depends on China as supply chain.

They can't be on a containment mode forever. There are two outcomes for the next few months: 1. The virus is gone. or 2. virus stays around but in limited exposure. and people move on and put their focus on something new like phase 2 trade deal?

I am less worried about it outside of china in developed countries. I notice in developed countries, there's natural social distance.(e.g. more emphasis on individuality) There's more closed socializing in China where it values family, friendships, socialism. In China, I know lots of people's name in town. In Canada, I barely talk to neighbours in a year..I don't even know people's name.It's not easy because we are busy with our own interest and own life. Especially, I have a new Syrian refugee family living beside me which barely speak English. And then there's cultural difference. The main risk is grocery shopping time.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Expensive parking near our hospital down the street. Unmasked (someone I know) took an Uber to the emergency room and was diagnosed with flu. Ubered back home.

Always innovative South Korea is doing drive-thru Covid-19 clinics where patients stay in their car and the healthcare worker experiences minimal exposure through the partially opened window.

How soon until Uber flags transport to medical facilities. Otherwise, Uber Vector.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Italy is now exporting cases. They've found it in Austria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, and Brazil. All tied to travel from Italy.

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Yeah, I came here just to tell we imported it from Italy already :-p

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

You guys could import a case of San Pellegrino or an Italian leather suitcase but you chose a case of convid 19. What were you thinking? :roll:

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Very interesting thread on twitter positing a theory that the place to watch is not Wuhan but Wenzhou, a nearby city. It has the highest number of cases outside of Hubei and a large number of their residents are migrant workers working in Europe. Part 2 explains his thinking of how it expanded to Iran via Middle East markets in China. If his theory is right, he thinks the next place to have a major breakout will be Spain, which also has a very high Chinese migrant working population.

https://twitter.com/moldbugman/status/1 ... 8138925058

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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

I'm surprised there hasn't been much discussion of supply chain effects here. Nissan and Hyundai have already both closed factories In S. Korea and Japan. Proctor and Gamble have mentioned that thousands of their products may not be available. Many active pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China (some exclusively) and the US gets most of their supply from outside the country. Just in Time inventory may be rethought after this if it continues to get worse. There aren't many companies these days with more than a few weeks supply of products in storage. This could really hurt some businesses as insurance isn't going to pick up the bill after learning lessons from SARS and previous pandemics.

naturelover
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Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

If China continues to slow its manufacturing, I'd be interested to see if the US picks up to make up for some of the shortage. Seems unlikely though due to the sheer scale of the requirement.

So what's the point of quarantine at this point? Can it really die off with these measures, or is it really just to stem the tide? I was thinking the latter, since it will help minimize the impact on healthcare and allow for some time for a vaccine.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

naturelover wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:46 pm
So what's the point of quarantine at this point? Can it really die off with these measures, or is it really just to stem the tide? I was thinking the latter, since it will help minimize the impact on healthcare and allow for some time for a vaccine.
I'd agree. It already seems evident in how they are handling most of the cases in the US. So far it seems they are only quarantined in a medical facility if they are thought to have coronavirus. If they'd only had exposure they are asked to comply with a voluntary quarantine. 83 more people in Nassau County (NY) were just asked to undergo voluntary isolation today. This seems like a terrible policy given the extremely poor means of testing in the US at the moment and the disease's long incubation period.

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Now imagine the world panicking a bit more seriously than now and then one day we wake up to a second “moon” in the sky because Betelgeuse went supernova? Now *that* would be fun, what a timing hahahah

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

I listened to the Presidential Press Conference on the way home from the swap meet this afternoon. The President repeatedly quoted the Hopkins study (from page 3 of this thread) saying the US is the country best prepared to handle a pandemic.

At the bottom of a box full of medical gear were four boxes of prescription Albuterol. The seller wanted $1 per box. They expire in July. Of course I told them that in good conscience I could not purchase it because it is a prescription medication. :|

Image

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Unknown community transmission has occurred in Sacramento, CA:

https://www.kcra.com/article/new-case-o ... a/31123681#

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