COVID-19

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naturelover
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Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:39 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

I'm wondering if death rates are higher in china due to pollution and heavy smoking. Not sure if someone mentioned it yet. Also, I'd agree that social media probably is upping the hysteria factor.

Looks like Japan got raised to level 2 CDC travel advisory. I doubt this will die down in a few months so I'm going to try to get a refund for my tickets or go somewhere else.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

naturelover wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:32 am
I'm wondering if death rates are higher in china due to pollution and heavy smoking.
And due to the health care system getting overwhelmed and not having enough resources to support all patients properly.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

That's some interesting stuff on H1N1 flu. I am seeing a somewhat similar thing play out now. There seems to be quite the disconnected between the public health understanding of epidemics/pandemics and the public reaction.

I was also thinking today how different the public reaction is to COVID-19 vs the obesity epidemic/opioid epidemics are. Obviously there are some very important differences between these things, but the future for obesity/opioids are quite grim. By 2030, the CDC says 1 out of every 2 Americans will be full on obese. Additionally, we're at about 70k deaths a year from drug overdose. So obviously these things are quite serious public heath issues.

I suppose the difference in public reaction is that we know how to avoid drug addiction/obesity. I can avoid using opioids and I can avoid eating sugar, but it's much harder to avoid a deadly novel airborne pathogen. And if you want to be cynical, you can say the difference is opioids/obesity only affect poor people whereas COVID-19 could affect rich people too, therefore it's a perceived worse threat. :lol: :?

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Agency and familiarity is a big factor. Same reason why people accept traffic deaths at the tune of 35000/year (US) but will ground an entire fleet of aircraft over a couple of a crashes with a few hundred deaths.

ToFI
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

Maybe I am optimistic, the true fatality rate should be lot lower than the "2%" in China among the reported cases. The reason is there are many mild cases not being reported. I doubt all people infected went to hospital. It's possible some people stayed home and recovered on their own. Then if taking into account of 15% infection rate if it develops into pandemic, the true fatality rate among the whole planet in that case is still low.

This whole event has too much fear-mongering. A perfect opportunity for a distraction from political conflict?

"Coronavirus: 81% of cases are 'mild,' study says

A new paper by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that the majority of coronavirus cases are mild, with older adults and people who have other conditions being most at risk."

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... study-says
Last edited by ToFI on Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:26 am, edited 2 times in total.

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

I've started watching Dr. John Campbell's videos the past few days. Good daily summaries. https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos
He posted about pulse oximeters today and I'm thinking of getting one since they're only $20 but there's not much we could do about low oxygen currently if things get extreme and hospitals are overloaded. Oxygen concentrators are in the hundreds of dollars, hmm...

Went to Walmart and picked up the last bags of Great Value 20 lb. rice (x2) and Great Value 8 lb. pinto beans (x5), at least what they had out on the shelf. The shelves could have held more but maybe they only have a few of each out under normal circumstances anyway. There were plenty of other rice brands and sizes and 1 lb bags of various beans looked fully stocked.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

I ended up buying a pulse oximeter, but I'm not going to bother getting oxygen. If only because I am personally in the low risk group, and the family members I would be concerned about have comorbidities that are FAR beyond my "First-aid certified once in 2009" abilities to treat. I do think stocking up on a few months of food is the best thing you can do because locking yourself in your house for months would stop you from getting it. (Even if that ends up being impractical in practice because epidemics can last months.) But the pulse oximeter lets you know when you're truly dealing with a medical emergency.

Dr. John Campbell's videos are pretty good. I do personally think he's just a tad alarmist, but he's by far the best YT resource out there right now. Peak Prosperity I'm skeptical of because they try to make of money off their prepper-type courses, which of course biases them toward making it seem worse than it is. It's good to be prepared, but overreacting isn't helpful.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

Those Campbell videos are great.

@Jacob, this one made me think of you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkdPFCStA38
He talked about staying warm to keep your nose warm and to keep the number of white blood cells in your nose high to prevent infections (how you can get a 'cold' from being cold). Any thoughts on modifying the thermostat on your house based on this?

@Seppia
What is it like in Italy for you? The lockdown is to the west of you, I believe, but it sounds like they are taking it very seriously.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

And the COVID-19 NIMBYism begins. Costa Mesa files injunction to block quarantining within their city limits.

https://ktla.com/2020/02/22/judge-halts ... bjections/

-----

One of the regular vendors had about a dozen pulse oximeters this morning for $5 a piece. Probably should have bought them. Still no oxygen concentrators.

Can't find my stethoscope so I will have to pick one up.

A good overview of various lung sounds.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... m5MLXgjyUW

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Can you us a smartphone app and the internal mic on the phone make a suitable stethoscope?

I wonder if there is an open source oxygen machine design out there? They don’t seem so complex. You need two zeolite packs, a cheap compressor, some solenoid valves and an Arduino to sequence the ping pong action between the zeolite packs. $200 on Craigslist looks better than building anything though.

I’m just not far enough down the road to buy one.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:16 pm
I’m just not far enough down the road to buy one.
Nor am I. At least not with real money. I'll pay up to $8 for one. And $2 for a stethoscope, preferably tangled up with a manual blood pressure cuff.

------

ETA: Apparently many insurance companies slipped in pandemic exclusions to travel, life and business insurance policies after H1N1. They get triggered if the WHO declares a pandemic. I wonder if that has anything to do with the delay in declaring.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:22 am
Car sales down 92% in China for first half of February. I'm astounded the markets haven't been hit yet.
There you go. All the virus needed to do was to make it out of China.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Having watched all the WHO press conferences so far, I get the distinct feeling they are still waiting to call it a formal pandemic due to the sheer amount of irrational panic going on right now. COVID-19 is a serious illness, but from a global perspective, hoarding supplies and posting conspiracy theories on social media isn't helping anyone. WHO also acts from a global perspective. When you look at COVID-19 in a single global snapshot, things like malaria, heart disease, etc are still a lot worse. I mean, as of this writing, COVID-19 has only killed 2.6k people. That's still less than ebola even. And from a global perspective, at a certain point, the panic becomes worse than the disease.

Which isn't to say COVID-19 isn't serious. Obviously this virus checks all the boxes for "could be as bad as Spanish flu." It's just not there yet. And so isn't a "pandemic" yet. (Even if getting there is only a matter of time)

This is why Dr. Tedros though keeps talking about "window of opportunity." This is code for "yeah this is going to be a pandemic soon. Do something while you can."

BeyondtheWrap
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Re: COVID-19

Post by BeyondtheWrap »

Stocks were down a bit today, apparently because of the virus. Will they keep going down?

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

BeyondtheWrap wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:19 pm
Stocks were down a bit today, apparently because of the virus. Will they keep going down?
Who knows.

As for the virus I don't think it's that bad but I don't want to catch it either.

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

CS wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:32 pm
@Seppia
What is it like in Italy for you? The lockdown is to the west of you, I believe, but it sounds like they are taking it very seriously.
People lost their minds in italy.
I arrived in japan on Sunday, got an email from HR that advised ALL personnel to abort ANY travel for ANY destination.
Was supposed to continue my trip to Singapore and Thailand but will go back to Italy instead.
I’ll also have to self-quarantine for two weeks at home.
People have raided supermarkets.
I guess (hope) this is similar to what happened in the initial days in Singapore or HK, with people regaining composure after a week or so.

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jennypenny
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jennypenny »

I've stockpiled enough supplies (food, household goods, virus-specific stuff) for close family members as well as our own family. (Basically 3 households plus extras for more extended family.) That's our SOP. It occurred to me though that if they need something in the midst of a crisis, I would need to have physical contact with them to distribute the goodies, thus exposing my family unnecessarily. Consequently I've changed my thinking and I'm now putting together large care packages that I will distribute asap. If family members need something they can break into those supplies. If they don't end up using them, I can always take them back.

thedollar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thedollar »

I'd love to self-quarantine for a couple of weeks wo/ work or w/ remote work.

IMHO the spread cannot be stopped by now. It's like trying to ban a cold in several countries. "No one can have a cold in Italy" - can't be done except maybe in China but they also have mad control over individuals and next to zero human rights.

Believe it's much more serious in Iran than reported. Seems a lot of people coming from Iran to other countries are infected. Spread in Europe has gone from Italy to now Austria, Germany and Canary Islands.

I predict that the spread will ramp up until reaching some kind of tipping point where most are immune/already had it. 10s to 100s of millions are gonna get infected and 100,000s will likely die (mostly elderly and people with other disease).

Markets will 'recover' quickly when containment efforts are given up.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

@seppia
Thanks for sharing.
It seems like it would have been better to stay in Japan, then get in another airplane and go back to Italy. I hope you get a direct flight - it sounds like there are some blockages of Italians traveling else where.

They are not even testing in the US, except known travelers to China, and there is something wrong with the test kits to boot ("not sharing" why, says the CDC. Thanks.) I have a hard time believing there are no cases on the west coast other than the cruise ship passengers. Just like Vancouver in Canada, it is close and convenient to Asian. People are going back and forth.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

It would not surprise me if we have community spread going on already in some places in the US. The only think that makes me feel somewhat better is the influenza monitoring network already in place from the CDC. Most hospitals are hooked up to this and report severe "influenza" cases in nearly real time back to the CDC. If a single community got hit by a spike in "influenza" cases, the CDC would see it almost immediately. So if there is a sudden spike in people admitted for viral pneumonia to hospitals, the CDC would go on red alert.

COVID-19 is pretty bad, but you can imagine worse things, like if SARS had truly gone pandemic. I hope that global leaders can learn from this experience to prepare us even better for the next pandemic. Because the single saving grace of COVID-19 is that is spares younger people. You can imagine a cytokine storm version of COVID-19 that killed people in their 20s and 30s in addition to the elderly. That would truly be a disaster.

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