COVID-19

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CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

As someone with parents in their mid-seventies, this tells me I should quarantine myself for a month after travels before seeing them just to be safe.

Yet another reason to wish to be a twenty year old!

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Rewatching this National Geographic documentary on SARS makes me realize how much history repeats itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-wf_cC0Kek

Jean
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

CS wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:03 pm
I don't know the answers to those questions... This whole thing is just, ugh.

This article stepped very patiently through Mortality Rate, versus Case Fatality rate and had some good points about the worrying high number of still critical cases even China is reporting. I found it worth the read. Written by a math guy I believe.
https://medium.com/swlh/the-reported-mo ... 9989c8d912

One family in China lost a son, a daughter, both patents, with the wife's son in critical care. Losing four people in one family does point to a high per case fatality rate. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19

I just agreed to a job in New Mexico in a hospital. I'm starting to think that is really stupid idea.
I read somewhere that the virus was using a particular protein to grip onto. This protein isn't produced equally by every human because genetics. So I don't think we can infer the global mortality rate from one family being wiped out.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

China reverted their reporting diagnostics from clinical back to lab confirmed. This is why the new case numbers have looked a bit wonky over the past couple of days.

Also, Korea doubled again. And new cases in Iran.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Car sales down 92% in China for first half of February. I'm astounded the markets haven't been hit yet.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

This morning I bought a used pulse oximeter for $2. Just needed batteries. Got excited when I found two ResMed oxygen devices but then realized they were both cpaps. Still watching for a used continuous bp monitor and one of those thermometer guns. Laying the foundation for the Ego No Mercy Hospital of the Second-Hand Immaculate Conception. ;)

Colibri
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Colibri »

Hahahahaha Thanks Ego for the good laugh about your new care centre project. Now you need to find yourself a title :lol:

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

CDC has called it a "tremendous public health threat" and that future community spread in the US is "very possible, even likely."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020 ... id-19.html

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

SK doubles again to 433. Iran is also going up fast.

Today's sit-rep focuses on the degree that the virus can be food borne (on meat products). It survives longer in the cold (5C refrigerator) but dies during cooking (70C). Worth reading. The virus is believed to have bats as the natural reservoir but rely on another unknown animal for the transfer to humans. So don't eat that animal ;-)
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... vid-19.pdf (page 2)

ToFI
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

If this virus can transmit without symptoms, then it's pretty much impossible to contain it. We already have 4 corona viruses in circulation. Maybe this will be the 5th one. I've read somewhere the infection rate is from 0.5% to 15%, multiple that by 1% death rate. The risk of death is extremely low from contact with the virus. It's like a seasonal flu. I got sick many times already working in the cubicle where people get sick regularly. I think I am much safer now that I F.I.R.E and stay home most of time.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

ToFI wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:24 am
If this virus can transmit without symptoms
We don't know whether that is the case yet. The early reports that it was came from a Chinese administrator rather than an academic or medical source. The WHO said it was unlikely.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:13 am
We don't know whether that is the case yet. The early reports that it was came from a Chinese administrator rather than an academic or medical source. The WHO said it was unlikely.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN20G00J
A 20-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, traveled 400 miles(675 km) north to Anyang where she infected five relatives, without ever showing signs of infection, Chinese scientists reported on Friday, offering new evidence that the virus can be spread asymptomatically.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

That's still anecdotal, an isolated case doesn't prove much other than it is possible.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Spreading asymptomatically only becomes problematic depending on how often it happens. Again the goal is not to get every case. It's to put R0 below 1. The paper I linked earlier said only 1% of cases are completely asymptomatic.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Fair point, the doctors have "presumed" it.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Italy rising fast, now reporting 62^H^H79 cases, 2 dead. Some secondary infections. A few towns in northern Italy on lockdown.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 841539002/

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Today two tenant who do not know one another have simultaneously submitted instructions on what to do and who to contact if they happen to suddenly die. The seniors at Soylent Towers used to give me these every so often but I've never gotten one of them here.

The infection itself is interesting. The contagion of fear, far more so. Which is more dangerous?

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

The contagion of fear has been one of the most interesting and concerning aspects of this entire outbreak. I don't remember there being nearly this much panic for 2009 H1N1 flu, even though at the beginning of the outbreak, it looked much scarier. (H1N1 being the same flu species as Spanish flu, being a zoonotic combination of many flu strains, the fact pandemic influenza is scary, etc)

I really feel like social media has distorted this outbreak and lead to weird disinformation and panic floating around compared to earlier outbreaks.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Mind you - if you look at the timeline of H1N1 though - it took about 6 months to reach the level of reported and recorded death toll that it has taken the coronavirus to reach in less than 2 months. It was only much later that they estimated the death toll to be abut 300,000 people. So by comparison - it seems the death toll for this one could be in excess of a million - when all is said and done and estimates are done in retrospect. I have no doubt that there is significant under recording and under reporting. Just like there was with H1N1.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.psandman.com/col/swineflu2.htm

Some lessons from H1N1 and communication...
As the pandemic H1N1 swine flu virus spreads around the world, governments face some fundamental early decisions regarding two response strategies, containment and mitigation:

number 1
Should they try to “contain” the new virus in an effort to stave off the day when it will reach and infect their populace?
number 2
Or should they resign themselves to the inevitability of local transmission, and focus on “mitigating” its effects?
number 3
If they decide to focus on containment at first, when should they throw in the towel and switch to mitigation?

These decisions regarding containment versus mitigation are usually seen – and rightly so – as public health decisions. But they are also risk communication decisions. When a government decides to make strenuous efforts to keep swine flu from crossing its borders, and to keep imported cases from spreading locally, it is signaling something to its public about whether the novel H1N1 virus is stoppable and about whether it is severe.

And there is a fourth decision governments must make that is explicitly about risk communication:

number 4
How should they explain the goals and endpoints of containment to their publics?

Many governments doing intense swine flu containment are signaling that the purpose of containment is to prevent local spread of the virus – not just slow it or reduce its impact, but actually prevent it. Many of these governments explicitly tell their people that this is the goal; some just signal it without actually saying so. In all cases, these signals and messages are misleading, since containment will eventually fail.

Thus governments are setting themselves up to be blamed, and setting their people up to be shocked and unprepared for imminent domestic epidemics.

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