Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Has anyone attempted to gauge their health and determine their probable life expectancy in order to determine their saving and
spending requirements?
spending requirements?
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Yes, I did some life expectancy calculators when I first started out. I found in the time frames I was considering, ie do I live to 70 or 95? - the difference in safe withdrawal rate wasn't all that much. It was lost in the noise of other safety margins included in my projections. This was welcome news, because especially if you are accounting for a couple, the odds of someone living past 90 is high.
In practice, by the time I have more confidence in my death date, it's highly likely my net worth will be growing faster than I can spend it. If not, I'll adjust my consumption accordingly.
In practice, by the time I have more confidence in my death date, it's highly likely my net worth will be growing faster than I can spend it. If not, I'll adjust my consumption accordingly.
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Yes. Everyone on my dad's side died within a year of 78, so that's the number I'm going with.
I have been developing the concept of fiscal death, although it's still a work in progress.
I have been developing the concept of fiscal death, although it's still a work in progress.
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
I learned so many interesting lessons managing that senior apartment complex a few years ago. We had a wide variety of people. We accepted section 8 vouchers so we had a handful of tenants with zero wealth. Others were extremely wealthy but could no longer manage their large homes so their kids moved them to our place. Two mismatched pairs like this lived next door to one another and they lived nearly identical lifestyles.
A lot of what we are doing by trying to match life expectancy with spending is projecting current needs for optionality onto future me. I don't worry too much about it because I've learned that the really scary things in old age don't have a lot to do with wealth. They have to do with what we did in the lead up to old age.
Mortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.
I've learned that the worst thing I can do for myself is set my life up so that I no longer NEED to be productive. YMMV
A lot of what we are doing by trying to match life expectancy with spending is projecting current needs for optionality onto future me. I don't worry too much about it because I've learned that the really scary things in old age don't have a lot to do with wealth. They have to do with what we did in the lead up to old age.
Mortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.
I've learned that the worst thing I can do for myself is set my life up so that I no longer NEED to be productive. YMMV
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
I haven't really looked into that specifically. In general I assume my actuarial life expectancy. Specifically for financial testing I run 7 years or so beyond that. But being financially conservative by nature it's sort of a moot exercise because I'm sizing things so that, barring some big boy black swans, I should stay on a modestly upward trajectory with financial assets.
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Life expectancy is a terrible, terrible proxy for the efficiency of health-care delivery systems. It is completely muddied by lifestyle and other factors (e.g. obesity, teenage births, accidents, etc) that are unrelated to a country's health-care system. The fact that we insist on using this measure without ever acknowledging its severe shortcomings is very troubling.
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
When I was 12, I asked my Ouija Board and it came back at 67. It was depressing. Like not long not short. Quit work then die the next day kind of thing. But those are the supernatural cards I have been dealt so there's no use shaking my fists at the angels about it. It hasn't really impacted my spending but I've never been on a Ouija board again.
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Very well put! I deal with elderly all of the time, generically when they have taken ill. No matter how independent a person is, it's interdependence that matters most to maintain freedom after a certain age. Money can buy someone a nice assisted living or nursing home, but relationships buy you the ability to stay in your own home. No matter how healthy a person remains, your body and mind weaken as you age past a certain point. Illness and injury will eventually happen, whether or not you recover and retain your freedom is far more dependent on your social capital than financial.Ego wrote: ↑Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:08 amMortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
The only truly self-sufficient plan to maintain your freedom is to resolve to off yourself when you become too decrepit. You could pick a maximum age, but I think some sort of 5 capacity grading system might be better. Of course, the trick would be catching mental decline before it was too late.
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
I find these N-point trigger systems often slip and get redefined as their trigger points are crossed. It's hard to compensate for all the unknown unknowns when learning in real time.
For example, one's younger self might decide that humans are de facto dead inside so why go on living once they're no longer interested in
For example, one's younger self might decide that humans are de facto dead inside so why go on living once they're no longer interested in
- Dating new people
- Traveling and having "amazing experiences"
- Being physically attractive
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
@jacob:
Well, obviously, I don't think it should be legislated. IMO, there's just something very dysfunctional compulsive towards Bartleby the Scrivener about long-term financial contingency planning combined with reality of eventual cellular level senescence. Maude in "Harold and Maude" is one of my old age role models.
Also, dating, travel and concern about physical appearance are in my experience more phase of life/context contingent than age-contingent. For instance, if you find yourself single (again) at 73 and that is not your druthers, then you will have to summon up some dating new people energy, and - who knows?- it may turn out to be an "amazing experience" when he takes you out canoeing and a bald eagle flies right over your heads, and within that context you might feel compelled to give some thought to whether the new style of skimpy/stretchy bra that was popular when you were in your 30s and now is again still works on you. Etc. etc. etc.
THF's strong focus on these values has less to do with his age and more to do with the fact that he is clearly more E and more F than most members of this forum.
Well, obviously, I don't think it should be legislated. IMO, there's just something very dysfunctional compulsive towards Bartleby the Scrivener about long-term financial contingency planning combined with reality of eventual cellular level senescence. Maude in "Harold and Maude" is one of my old age role models.
Also, dating, travel and concern about physical appearance are in my experience more phase of life/context contingent than age-contingent. For instance, if you find yourself single (again) at 73 and that is not your druthers, then you will have to summon up some dating new people energy, and - who knows?- it may turn out to be an "amazing experience" when he takes you out canoeing and a bald eagle flies right over your heads, and within that context you might feel compelled to give some thought to whether the new style of skimpy/stretchy bra that was popular when you were in your 30s and now is again still works on you. Etc. etc. etc.
THF's strong focus on these values has less to do with his age and more to do with the fact that he is clearly more E and more F than most members of this forum.
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Well, I decided to have a CAC score test (Coronary Artery Calcium score) as heart disease is the biggest cause of premature death...
The results was... drum roll... zero.
So that is good.
The results was... drum roll... zero.
So that is good.
Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending
Choose a date, use your money till then, and go walk Alone into the wild naked on due date.