Life Expectancy Health and Spending

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Nomad
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Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 5:23 pm
Location: UK

Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Nomad » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:44 pm

Has anyone attempted to gauge their health and determine their probable life expectancy in order to determine their saving and
spending requirements?

Scott 2
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Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:34 pm

Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Scott 2 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:49 pm

Yes, I did some life expectancy calculators when I first started out. I found in the time frames I was considering, ie do I live to 70 or 95? - the difference in safe withdrawal rate wasn't all that much. It was lost in the noise of other safety margins included in my projections. This was welcome news, because especially if you are accounting for a couple, the odds of someone living past 90 is high.

In practice, by the time I have more confidence in my death date, it's highly likely my net worth will be growing faster than I can spend it. If not, I'll adjust my consumption accordingly.

bigato
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Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2011 12:43 pm

Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by bigato » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:11 pm

There was a website that I once found, where you would answer dozens of questions about your lifestyle and then it spits out your life expectancy. Mine was 93 if I am not mistaken. But good news is that artificial inteligence will very soon be able to tell with a certain degree of confidence the date when you will die of natural causes. This is not science fiction anymore. If you want to burn through your money like a candle leaving nothing at the end, now you can plan much better. But my plans include keeping on growing the stash or at least maintaining its value and then leave it for some cause I find worthy after I die. If I were older than Bill Gates, I'd leave it for their foundation as I admire their focus in putting money to improve the world in smart ways. I have no will registered now, but if I die early, I'm ok with my family burning through it anyway.

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unemployable
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by unemployable » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:27 pm

Yes. Everyone on my dad's side died within a year of 78, so that's the number I'm going with.

I have been developing the concept of fiscal death, although it's still a work in progress.

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Ego
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Ego » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:08 am

I learned so many interesting lessons managing that senior apartment complex a few years ago. We had a wide variety of people. We accepted section 8 vouchers so we had a handful of tenants with zero wealth. Others were extremely wealthy but could no longer manage their large homes so their kids moved them to our place. Two mismatched pairs like this lived next door to one another and they lived nearly identical lifestyles.

A lot of what we are doing by trying to match life expectancy with spending is projecting current needs for optionality onto future me. I don't worry too much about it because I've learned that the really scary things in old age don't have a lot to do with wealth. They have to do with what we did in the lead up to old age.

Mortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.

I've learned that the worst thing I can do for myself is set my life up so that I no longer NEED to be productive. YMMV

IlliniDave
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:25 am

I haven't really looked into that specifically. In general I assume my actuarial life expectancy. Specifically for financial testing I run 7 years or so beyond that. But being financially conservative by nature it's sort of a moot exercise because I'm sizing things so that, barring some big boy black swans, I should stay on a modestly upward trajectory with financial assets.

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