Life Expectancy Health and Spending

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Nomad
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Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Nomad » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:44 pm

Has anyone attempted to gauge their health and determine their probable life expectancy in order to determine their saving and
spending requirements?

Scott 2
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Scott 2 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:49 pm

Yes, I did some life expectancy calculators when I first started out. I found in the time frames I was considering, ie do I live to 70 or 95? - the difference in safe withdrawal rate wasn't all that much. It was lost in the noise of other safety margins included in my projections. This was welcome news, because especially if you are accounting for a couple, the odds of someone living past 90 is high.

In practice, by the time I have more confidence in my death date, it's highly likely my net worth will be growing faster than I can spend it. If not, I'll adjust my consumption accordingly.

bigato
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by bigato » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:11 pm

There was a website that I once found, where you would answer dozens of questions about your lifestyle and then it spits out your life expectancy. Mine was 93 if I am not mistaken. But good news is that artificial inteligence will very soon be able to tell with a certain degree of confidence the date when you will die of natural causes. This is not science fiction anymore. If you want to burn through your money like a candle leaving nothing at the end, now you can plan much better. But my plans include keeping on growing the stash or at least maintaining its value and then leave it for some cause I find worthy after I die. If I were older than Bill Gates, I'd leave it for their foundation as I admire their focus in putting money to improve the world in smart ways. I have no will registered now, but if I die early, I'm ok with my family burning through it anyway.

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unemployable
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by unemployable » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:27 pm

Yes. Everyone on my dad's side died within a year of 78, so that's the number I'm going with.

I have been developing the concept of fiscal death, although it's still a work in progress.

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Ego
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Ego » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:08 am

I learned so many interesting lessons managing that senior apartment complex a few years ago. We had a wide variety of people. We accepted section 8 vouchers so we had a handful of tenants with zero wealth. Others were extremely wealthy but could no longer manage their large homes so their kids moved them to our place. Two mismatched pairs like this lived next door to one another and they lived nearly identical lifestyles.

A lot of what we are doing by trying to match life expectancy with spending is projecting current needs for optionality onto future me. I don't worry too much about it because I've learned that the really scary things in old age don't have a lot to do with wealth. They have to do with what we did in the lead up to old age.

Mortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.

I've learned that the worst thing I can do for myself is set my life up so that I no longer NEED to be productive. YMMV

IlliniDave
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:25 am

I haven't really looked into that specifically. In general I assume my actuarial life expectancy. Specifically for financial testing I run 7 years or so beyond that. But being financially conservative by nature it's sort of a moot exercise because I'm sizing things so that, barring some big boy black swans, I should stay on a modestly upward trajectory with financial assets.

mustafayacoob
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by mustafayacoob » Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:10 am

Life expectancy is a terrible, terrible proxy for the efficiency of health-care delivery systems. It is completely muddied by lifestyle and other factors (e.g. obesity, teenage births, accidents, etc) that are unrelated to a country's health-care system. The fact that we insist on using this measure without ever acknowledging its severe shortcomings is very troubling.

Jason
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Jason » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:59 am

When I was 12, I asked my Ouija Board and it came back at 67. It was depressing. Like not long not short. Quit work then die the next day kind of thing. But those are the supernatural cards I have been dealt so there's no use shaking my fists at the angels about it. It hasn't really impacted my spending but I've never been on a Ouija board again.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by classical_Liberal » Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:13 am

Ego wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:08 am
Mortgaging health and relationships today for a future safe withdraw rate is a far more dangerous proposition than leaving work early with a healthy body, healthy mind and healthy relationships but an unsafe withdraw rate. It is the extremely rare person that can do both.
Very well put! I deal with elderly all of the time, generically when they have taken ill. No matter how independent a person is, it's interdependence that matters most to maintain freedom after a certain age. Money can buy someone a nice assisted living or nursing home, but relationships buy you the ability to stay in your own home. No matter how healthy a person remains, your body and mind weaken as you age past a certain point. Illness and injury will eventually happen, whether or not you recover and retain your freedom is far more dependent on your social capital than financial.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:45 pm

The only truly self-sufficient plan to maintain your freedom is to resolve to off yourself when you become too decrepit. You could pick a maximum age, but I think some sort of 5 capacity grading system might be better. Of course, the trick would be catching mental decline before it was too late.

jacob
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by jacob » Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:21 pm

I find these N-point trigger systems often slip and get redefined as their trigger points are crossed. It's hard to compensate for all the unknown unknowns when learning in real time.

For example, one's younger self might decide that humans are de facto dead inside so why go on living once they're no longer interested in
  • Dating new people
  • Traveling and having "amazing experiences"
  • Being physically attractive
Also see, Logan's Run.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:59 am

@jacob:

Well, obviously, I don't think it should be legislated. IMO, there's just something very dysfunctional compulsive towards Bartleby the Scrivener about long-term financial contingency planning combined with reality of eventual cellular level senescence. Maude in "Harold and Maude" is one of my old age role models.

Also, dating, travel and concern about physical appearance are in my experience more phase of life/context contingent than age-contingent. For instance, if you find yourself single (again) at 73 and that is not your druthers, then you will have to summon up some dating new people energy, and - who knows?- it may turn out to be an "amazing experience" when he takes you out canoeing and a bald eagle flies right over your heads, and within that context you might feel compelled to give some thought to whether the new style of skimpy/stretchy bra that was popular when you were in your 30s and now is again still works on you. Etc. etc. etc.

THF's strong focus on these values has less to do with his age and more to do with the fact that he is clearly more E and more F than most members of this forum.

Nomad
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Nomad » Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:45 am

Well, I decided to have a CAC score test (Coronary Artery Calcium score) as heart disease is the biggest cause of premature death...
The results was... drum roll... zero.

So that is good.

Jean
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by Jean » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:05 pm

Choose a date, use your money till then, and go walk Alone into the wild naked on due date.

bigato
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Re: Life Expectancy Health and Spending

Post by bigato » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:17 pm

With your last gold bar in your pocket, have your last hike be to the top of an active volcano. Return to earth all that you are and have, leave no trace behind.

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