The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

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Campitor
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Campitor »

Thanks for posting that. I'm glad someone else noticed that he played fast and loose with his numbers and made assertions without any facts. I agree that having massive inequality and static income ladders is a very bad thing - it's destabilizing to society because it creates a dynamo of negative incentives. But the fix isn't denying parents the ability to pass on wealth and knowledge to their offspring especially if that means impacting historically disenfranchised minorities who are only now beginning to edge their way into the upper income brackets in noticeable numbers.

The learning impediments to minorities and the poor arise from very complicated issues: single family homes, lack of parent participation, lack of any prior schooling before immigrating to the US, language issues, cognitive deficits caused by lack or nutrition or substance abuse by the mother during gestation, physical and mental abuse, drug abuse, etc. None of this can be addressed or ameliorated by any of the proposals discussed in the Matthew Stewart article.

oldbeyond
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by oldbeyond »

If you’re creating a definition on the new aristocracy that excludes Bezos but includes Amazons accountants, something has gone wrong in your thought process. This propensity to blame the ingroup seems symptomatic of the upper middle class, perhaps to illude some grandeur.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Well, I would note for the record that my friend who is worth over 70 million was unsuccessful in his attempt to buy a spot for his illegitimate daughter ( sweet girl, but struggled with algebra) in a local private, exclusive school for gifted students.

Also, don’t underestimate the strength of the educated upper-middle class. For instance, Persian culture endured for millennia because every warrior king that swept in retained the services of this skilled class in the realm of bureaucracy.

Jason

Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Jason »

oldbeyond wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 am
If you’re creating a definition on the new aristocracy that excludes Bezos but includes Amazons accountants, something has gone wrong in your thought process. This propensity to blame the ingroup seems symptomatic of the upper middle class, perhaps to illude some grandeur.
Whatever the motive or from wherever the source, the distinction did not escape the electorate in 2016. The general population's admiration of billionaires but contempt for millionaires was evidenced. Millionaires are the assholes who come in and tell them how to do their job better after the billionaire created it.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

@ffj -

Educated guesses tend to reflect the framework of the person making the guess more than anything else.

The right team (believing that culture must be regulated while the economy must be unregulated) would say that culture drives money.
The left team (believing that culture must be unregulated while the economy must be regulated) would say that money drives culture.

By regulated I mean subject to laws/behavioral constraints whether they come from the government, the church, the bank, or tiger-parents.

All arguments/debates [between left and right] follow from this foundational disagreement. But [whether the left or the right is correct] is really nothing more than a chicken and egg problem which is why I tend to fade rapidly on such disagreements that are framed along the left-right axis.

Meanwhile, the existing structure of society + the innate qualities of people determines both the possible outcome and the actual outcomes. For example, a possible outcome given the structure of society is FI in 5 years. (There's a working capital market. There's no law against saving. Etc.) The actual outcome for most people is that they'll whine and complain and say they can't sacrifice their cheeseburgers and so the actual outcome is that the average person doesn't even have $400 saved for an emergency. (One needs intelligence, discipline, and confidence to follow a long-term plan that is out of the ordinary and the average human has only 1-2 of those qualities.)

Basically this,
Seppia wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 10:59 am
The claim that "anybody could do this" (= it's simple) doesn't necessarily translate in "anybody DOES that" (= it's easy).
There are two issues going on here. One is ERE. The other is the context of ERE which is the rest of society. ERE is not society, but society does impact ERE. Therefore I must consider society.

If I only cared about myself+family to the first order, I would conclude that it's a great society [for me and the small fraction of other people like me]. If my sphere of concern was larger, I would conclude that it's an imperfect society since e.g. "most people don't have $400... blabla"(*)---meaning that many other people have bad outcomes. However, even if I reduce my circle of concern to the extent of my four castle walls, I still need to be aware that the outside can develop enough class risk to storm my castle walls or less dangerously simply start putting an extra tax on fortunes over $100k or more dangerously, like they do in the UK as well now, reduce the amount of policing in run-down areas because the money isn't there. I'm of course not just talking security but also whether life is pleasant or not.

(*) A $400 emergency fund is just an example. Can also pick other significant metrics like longevity, education, median GDP, health care cost, pension funding, ...

IOW, I can not--not consider the fact that most people seem incapable of adopting ERE (because while it's simple, it's also hard) as long as they have the freedom not to.

Ultimately it boils down to the fact that there are a lot of stupid and helpless people in the world. We/I can cynically ignore that helpless people (e.g. people who don't vote or don't riot), but I can not ignore the stupid people (e.g. people who will vote on destructive policies or perhaps take direct destructive action for no discernible reason).

tl;dr - ERE is part of a bigger system. ERE is not the solution to structural problems because of innate limitations (most people can not handle the unregulated culture + unregulated economy that ERE thrives on and direct it in the right way [towards ERE]). Read link above for the big picture.

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jennypenny
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jennypenny »

@jacob -- two quibbles

First, I don't think the 'culture' you're defining by a left/right framework is the one to which some of us our referring. What I was referring to more closely resembles 'environment' than a belief system. I live in a county and town that is split almost exactly down the middle politically but mostly falls into the 9.9% that Stewart is talking about. When it comes to the 9.9% culture, politics mostly fall away and the group becomes pretty homogenous. Within the group there is a large consumer-driven, credential-seeking group (like in any group), but as a whole, the left/right issue is window dressing for during election season or other red-cup signaling issues.

IMO, one of the reasons our county is so evenly split and an important swing county is because it is mostly a 9.9% county. The 'culture' of that group supersedes a lot of the team-shirt-wearing stuff for people. Many of us may have strong political beliefs, but they are second-tier social-connectors. First and foremost (and what I think Stewart got right in the article) is a culture that we preserve and support because we believe it keeps us afloat and offers the best environment for our children. (I'm not going to apologize for trying to raise my children to the best of my ability ... keeping them from being stupid is a +1 for society and keeping them from doing anything horribly stupid while I'm legally responsible for them is a +1 for me.)

That's not to say it's something exclusive, although I'm sure some would like it that way. Many people (myself included) work our way into that group and stay there because we believe that culture improves the chances that our children will do at least as well as we did. The culture also helps to drown out other negative influences by overwhelming kids with positive ones. While I detest the idea of three years of SAT study for a child, if the same kid in a different neighborhood would sit home all those afternoons playing Xbox, then given those choices I'd rather they 'wasted' time with endless SAT prep.

We chose not to put our kids into every available enhancing activity, but we didn't move either. We selectively participated in things and spent money strategically. We managed (I think/hope) to give our kids a 9.9% culture in regards to enhanced goals and education while still doing it on an ERE-ish budget. One doesn't have to go all-in for the benefits.


Second, I feel strongly that almost anyone can work their way into this kind of culture. It's doesn't have to be in a wealthy neighborhood either--the Cipolla article states that there are 'stupid' people everywhere so some are obviously making it into the 9.9% neighborhoods. Stupid doesn't mean lazy. I'd argue that bandits and helpless in that framework would have the hardest time achieving ERE because of the agency required. Grit and the right environment are what's necessary, which circles back to a point I made earlier. If jobs were more commensurate with ability and intelligence (maybe not a perfect system but better than most), then people would be able to live in cultures that provided the same type of cohesion and support.

Working class neighborhoods when I was growing up didn't necessarily expect all kids to go to college but expected that all kids would finish high school, be employable, and be able to have a family and standard of living that was similar to their parents. That expectation ... that assumption ... helps to form the outlook and expectations of the kids. With the disappearance of a lot of the jobs in the middle of that bell curve, you lose not only the jobs but also the communities that they supported. You lose that culture. It wasn't exactly the same as the 9.9% culture that Stewart described, but it served the same purpose to people in those communities and gave everyone a sense of agency and hopefulness.

Now we have victim culture on the bottom, winner-take-all culture on the top, and no one in the middle, and while it reflects the current political spectrum that's devoid of moderates, I don't think it stems from politics or political beliefs. It's the cross-pollination of the two converging spectrums that is fueling rising tensions. Trump's appeals to make america great again are an attempt to recreate more of the jobs in the middle of the curve, which is why he resonates with so many. I don't necessarily think looking backwards to recreate the jobs we used to have is the best route, but I agree with the sentiment that average people need appropriate employment.


tl;dr I agree with ffj that anyone can do ERE given the right amount of grit and agency. I don't agree with dismissing 'stupid' people or with commingling political culture with the 9.9% culture that some of us have been talking about. That supportive culture is only confined to the 9.9% now because the groups below have taken such a hit economically and as a result, their communities have suffered.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by prognastat »

I don't think you can completely extricate the political from the cultural. Sure it isn't a 1 to 1 connection, but there is definitely some connection.

Currently it is in vogue on the left to say a single parent is just as good as two parents. Unfortunately, this is one the right is mostly correct on. A intact nuclear family is probably the second most important things to determining how well a child will do after genetics. It is also better if they are both the biological parents as a parent without a genetic stake in the child is not going to be as invested on average. Abuse is also much more likely with a non biological parent.

This is just one example of where culture and the political are intertwined.

Another problem is that there is a seriously problematic anti-intellectual streak among the poorest in our country. Sure those that have both the intellect and perseverance to stand up to this cultural problem can make it out of it. However many that are intelligent enough, but don't have the same ability to buck the culture of everyone around them never make it out.

thegreatvoid

Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by thegreatvoid »

jacob wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 11:04 am

There's no law against saving. Etc.)
When I noticed that my savings with a german bank had been charged -300 Euros negative interest rates last year, without been notified about this, it very much felt like a " law against saving " . Thank you Mr. Draghi

7Wannabe5
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jacob wrote: One needs intelligence, discipline, and confidence to follow a long-term plan that is out of the ordinary and the average human has only 1-2 of those qualities.
Right, so obviously the amount of discipline one needs is likely more than exhibited by the likes of me ( or any other members of the tribe of multi-realm premature ejaculators.) But, the relevant question is what would be the minimum post-re-centering* SAT score correlated with enough intelligence?


*The re-centering was undertaken due to increased range of population taking test which resulted in average score dropping from 500 to around 420. Standard deviation approximately 100. Intense coaching (what you can buy) believed to have 50 point influence at best.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

The required "intelligence" is high if it is required to shift one's paradigm. It is low if one can just stay in the paradigm of one's environment. It is really high in order to invent a new paradigm. Here I mean a broad range of intelligence and more along the lines of what Aristotle called phronesis or practical wisdom(*) or maybe "personal development" in modern MBA parlance; not the nous or cleverness of the underlying engine speed that's tested by one's mental speed in finding patterns in colorful dots or the likes of SAT tests.

I think it's extremely important to appreciate that just because ERE or losing weight for that matter is simple it doesn't mean that it's easy. In particular, telling people to "spend less than you earn" or "eat less than you move" is not a solution to the pension crisis nor the obesity problem on a societal level even if it demonstrably works on some individuals. It's similar to how "more education" won't fix the climate change problem.

We have a few journals on the forum which illustrate an analogous problem. People who discover ERE and have the phronesis/intelligence to appreciate it but whose efforts are thwarted by their environment comprising a consumerist spouse and children with other plans. It's my experience (both personal and indirect) that such environment-problems are best NOT solved by applying some "grit and agency" in getting their spouse to accept the "simple solution". People are free to try (lmk how that goes :lol: ) but I know better now, since that has never gone well for me :P

Fortunately, in those journals, the persons also have high incomes (lots of money) which allows them to more easily navigate the consumerism and absorb the damage that the spouse is doing while only slowing down the path to FI by a decade. (Whereas for a median income household, it would destroy that path.)

This illustrates that at least some environmental problems or "unregulated culture" problems can be solved with money. If you have lots of money you don't need to apply the same level of financial skills to do well #easymode

(*) Kegan's arrangement of orders of consciousness can be used to conclude lots of interesting things about this. This also explains to which degree agency is possible in a person. Deliberate life choices like ERE, WSP, weight loss, ... which are different from the standard world-paradigm (consumerism, SAD diet, "good payin' jobs for hard-workin' people") requires a 4th order consciousness ("self-authoring") and works mainly in positive environments while failing in negative ones. It's also possible for 3rd order consciousness but not as a deliberate ("self-authoring") choice but rather as going along with the paradigm of one's friends, family, school, TV-ads, ... ("environment"). Unfortunately, climate change requires 5th order ("self-transforming") to resolve it. Going by the human adult population, 58% are 3rd order, 35% are 4th order, and 1% is 5th order. The remaining are 2nd order.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

Just another note about Kegan because this is currently endlessly fascinating to me---so bear with me...

A rough schemata of Kegan orders presented in words that we can all understand/relate to here, along with the percentages of adult humans in the total population sample:
  1. Lifestyle dependent (0%)
  2. Lifestyle respondent (14%)
  3. Lifestyle follower (58%)
  4. Lifestyle chooser (35%)
  5. Lifestyle innovator (1%)
I haven't quite debugged the suffixes yet---still converging on the "best terms"---but I suspect those are ultimately generic templates that fit after any prefix such as politics, religion, philosophy, ... not just lifestyle.

However, insofar that the majority of people are followers [of those who choose], and most other people are choosers [of those who invent], societal evolution from e.g. political changes et al. is very much curbed given the innate limitations of ordinary human beings. Most humans are born with a brain/lifespan to follow.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

they seem to apply to any idea or paradigm

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

Yes (because phronesis is generic) ... and this is why humanity [as a species] is screwed whenever their environment gets too volatile. But that's a bedtime (figuratively and literally) story for another time ...

IlliniDave
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by IlliniDave »

jacob wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 3:35 pm
Yes (because phronesis is generic) ... and this is why humanity [as a species] is screwed whenever their environment gets too volatile. But that's a bedtime (figuratively and literally) story for another time ...
I don't follow this. Volatile environments seem in many ways is the norm for the species. Cultures get screwed but the species seems quite resilient.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

https://scholar.harvard.edu/fryer/publi ... e-harlem-c
The study wrote:We conclude with evidence that suggests high-quality schools are enough to significantly increase academic achievement among the poor. Community programs appear neither necessary nor sufficient.

Riggerjack
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

That Atlantic article in the OP was interesting. I'm not sure I believe in his 9.9%, as a problem, at least. To make the numbers fit his storyline, well, read the slate link if you care about the way the numbers were chosen.

But then it reminded me of the https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... s/361631/ Atlantic article making the case with reparations for treatment of blacks. Again, facts were secondary to getting the storyline right... Hmmm. I sense a pattern.

Now, I don't read the Atlantic. I think maybe 5 articles over the years, linked from something I was reading. It's very clear it wasn't written for me. It's not a publication I would subscibe to, and I don't have a lot of experience with them, so if what I am about to say offends you, feel free to assume I haven't a clue.

But it's wierd, that a magazine, seemingly associated with class and "think pieces", would so consistently publish stories that are so well put together, with so many resources available, yet none of them stand up to the least scrutiny. It's just storyline, plus factoid (that may or may not be accurate), plus reference to someone agreeing (who may or may not actually agree), followed by more of the same. Enough information to emote at the problem effectively, but nothing like the information necessary to even understood the problem. Just enough to feel like I have a grip on the situation, and know who to blame.

That's just journalism. There's never enough time or space to tell the whole story, and most folks would lose interest. But this is different. The resources are there, it's an expensive, upscale, classy, magazine. Their subscibe demographics are astounding. I looked them up. Average age of subscriber is 50, more women than men, and this is strange, the women who read the Atlantic out earn the men who read the Atlantic by 11.5%. the publisher has a few other magazines where women subcribers out earn men, but Cosmo and Allure have much younger subscribers with far less money. Women who subscribe to the Atlantic have a median household income of $86k. More than the subscribers of Architectural Digest.

So, what we have is a magazine blaming the 9.9%, sold to the 9.9%. As a successful business model. How can that possibly work?!?

Well, it wouldn't work for me. I wouldn't buy a magazine blaming me for drying up all the opportunity for everyone who has failed to succeed as I have. I wouldn't buy a magazine telling me that, and certainly not actually look into the details and try to get a grip on the problems. But they have 1.25M subscribers who are doing just that, so they must be doing it for reasons I wouldn't, in ways I wouldn't.

(And this is where I get into unsubstantiated speculation, feel free to pick this apart.)

Usually, when I can't figure out why someone is doing something so stupid/destructive/mysterious, it helps to reframe the question into what they think they are doing. People tend to be able to justify their actions to themselves, so tapping into that can help explain their actions. Most nonessential things most people buy, are bought for social signalling.

So, I propose that the Atlantic sells some of their magazines to people who buy it for the published humble bragging. As in "I crushed it so hard, the altantic says there's nothing left for the little people. I RULE!" But this has to be a tiny minority. And it wouldn't attract well to do women, their bread and butter.

So let's just look at them. The stereotypical subscribers of the Atlantic. Upper middle class with aspirations, or lower upper class. Middle to upper management and skilled professionals, and spouses, in urban areas, neoliberals, Clinton supporters, rather than Bernie supporters. What are they getting?

I think they are getting a monthly guide to social correctness, combined with a cultural status symbol. Bear with me. The articles are long on details of storyline, with good guys and bad guys clearly labeled. But solutions are either completely unmentioned, silly, or blatently unworkable. So the customers want to have enough information to know how to feel about the issue, so they know how to react when it comes up in conversation, and know enough to contribute a detail here or there, but not enough to disrupt the cocktail party with insight. Middle management level of information.

Social and political awareness, without any information to contradict the shallow knowledge base of its subscribers, and a stong association with class and wealth. Exactly what an aspirational accountant needs to know to say the right things at parties, and nothing more.

Now the Atlantic isn't the first to work this business model. I first noticed it, listening to NPR. Selling the feeling of being informed, while not providing enough information to lose anyone. It needs a good name. We use infotainment for the TMZ style of journalism. We need a good word for those who sell the feelings of being informed, without the information. Your suggestions are appreciated.

But as near as I can tell, this 9.9% issue is only good until the July issue of Atlantic monthly.


Riggerjack
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

I should mention that I consider the Christian Science Monitor in the same category as NPR and the Atlantic, whatever we call it. But I come from a leftward background, so I don't think about the CSM much.

My point was around the selling of feelings of being informed, not which T-shirt comes with subscription.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

So we're not gonna get a paparazzi shot of Riggerjack sporting a New Yorker tote bag anytime soon?

BRUTE
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

Riggerjack wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 10:59 am
So, I propose that the Atlantic sells some of their magazines to people who buy it for the published humble bragging.
the demographic loves being guilty. social 50 shades of white guilt for the well-off urban professional.

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