Guns in America

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George the original one
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Re: Guns in America

Post by George the original one » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:19 pm

Today's revelation about the Florida high school armed deputy is that he was present, but took a defensive position outside the school behind a pillar and thus never had an opportunity to engage the shooter. After investigation, the Sheriff suspended the deputy at which time the deputy resigned. Deputy's salary last year was over $100k.

George the original one
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Re: Guns in America

Post by George the original one » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:33 pm

So here's what I think needs to happen before guns are increased in schools:

Teachers should have a means to silently summon remote aid. Use mobile tracking technology inside the school and on school grounds. This will allow first responders to actually respond to threats rather than hide behind pillars outside the school.

Classrooms need a second door, alarmed. That door should be one-way, allowing only egress. This is already standard practice for shop classrooms & theatres to meet fire code, so extending the fire code for classrooms in new construction is straight-forward. Definitely more complicated & expensive to retrofit existing buildings.

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BRUTE
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Re: Guns in America

Post by BRUTE » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:21 pm

Augustus wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:45 pm
Expecting the parent voting block to sit idly by because statistically their kid is not likely to get mown down by some angsty teenager is probably a losing argument.
brute would call it a strategy, not an argument. brute is happy to utilize this strategy (again) and see how it plays out.

ffj
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Re: Guns in America

Post by ffj » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:07 pm

@George

I saw that today about the deputy. What was striking was how quickly the department threw him under the bus. Something seems off about this story and I just can't place what it is just yet. That's just my gut reaction, it's just not protocol for the sheriff to publicly call this guy a coward.

It will be interesting to see more details and what becomes of this.

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Riggerjack
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Riggerjack » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:04 am

@7w5,

Yeah, we could do that, and I think it would help.

But, your solution requires community members to take on new responsibilities, commit more time, do more work. But gun control is sold as a service.

Gun control promises:
"It won't cost you anything!" All the costs are always borne by firearms owners.

"Someone else will make the sacrifice." It's not like gun control is being sold to gun owners.

"Someone else will do all the work." Any additional work, be it serializing magazines, processing paperwork, or confiscating firearms, it is work to be done by The Authorities and gun owners.

If gun control delivered on any of their promises, they would tout that success endlessly. They don't. Instead, they sell gun control as a service to non gun people. Who cares if it's expensive/ineffective/time consuming? It's all sacrificing someone else's time/money/safety.

All that is a much easier sell than the 7w5 plan, if for no other reason than to avoid any personal sacrifice.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: Guns in America

Post by ThisDinosaur » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:21 am

George the original one wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:19 pm
Today's revelation about the Florida high school armed deputy is that he was present, but took a defensive position outside the school
This could be used as evidence on either side. It could be used to show that an armed good guy wouldn't prevent this. Or it could be used to argue an armed teacher on the inside, with his life in danger, would have had skin in the game and start shooting back.

I saw someone arguing that, while most teachers are anti-gun progressives, some are retired police and veterans. So those individuals should be encouraged to concealed carry instead of discouraged as they are now.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by IlliniDave » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:55 am

I hadn't seen that but it's a third type failure on the part of armed government authorities in this one instance. I would agree that hiring armed security who cower outside when they are needed won't solve anything. Definitely have to find people willing to fight to protect children and trained to do it effectively. That's why an idea limited to having a few teachers carry a gun doesn't strike me as a high probability of success solution, although integrated with full-time security pros it could be a last line of defense.

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:33 am

ffj wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:07 pm
I saw that today about the deputy. What was striking was how quickly the department threw him under the bus. Something seems off about this story and I just can't place what it is just yet. That's just my gut reaction, it's just not protocol for the sheriff to publicly call this guy a coward.

It will be interesting to see more details and what becomes of this.
NRA spokesperson Dana Loesch called the sheriff out on not acting on 39 different tips on the shooter. If it's true that the sheriff bungled something, maybe he's trying to deflect attention?

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Riggerjack
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Riggerjack » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:47 pm

There was a school shooting. It doesn't matter who did what right or wrong, it happened. Expect a new sheriff, mayor, dog catcher. Nobody comes out of this clean. Many will be looking for new jobs or new communities after this is out of the news cycle.

If I could think of a feasible plan to stop these school shootings, I would shout it from the rooftops. But I think this is just a part of life in America, now.

Until we are willing to address schools in an entirely different light, redesign the system from the ground up, to make better citizens, I think we are stuck here. I noticed nobody shoots up Montessori or Waldorf Schools.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by ZAFCorrection » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:08 pm

If someone armed with a gun walks up to you with intent to kill and you are on day 10,000 of "no one tried to kill me lately," it doesn't matter if you have the auto-kill particle cannon 3000 holstered. There is a good chance you are going to die. Second, since school shootings are driving the debate, it is implicit (and occasionally explicit) in the argument that even a trivially small number of deaths to gun violence is too many, and arguing about what to do about it is accepting that assumption. So in order to have any chance of driving this number from basically zero to literally zero using the "arm the teachers" paradigm, schools are going to need significant retrofitting for physical controls as well as armed responders. That is going to incur significant costs as well as likely introduce unintended negative consequences (e.g. "my school is now a bunker").

It's probably better to stick with arguing that the problem is not really a problem worth doing anything about.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by jacob » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:44 pm

"Without loss of generality" (that is, not wasting time looking at irrelevant details), it seems that the US is playing some version of the prisoner's dilemma in which the system has locked-into defection as dominant strategy. It's generally expected that the other guy will defect(be armed and shoot) and therefore one better shoot first.

If the proverbial prisoner (here, any US person) can not figure out a way to somehow coordinate mutual cooperation(*), then the rational choice is the inferior stable strategy in which everybody is armed, shoots first, and pays a heavy price (but not as heavy as shooting last). So here we are. It's the rational outcome of the payoff matrix given by US laws, tradition, and culture.

(*) E.g. via laws, policing, morals, education, etc. all the usual ways a society coordinate cooperation.

Whereas the first world ex. US has mostly achieved collaboration as the dominant strategy by altering the odds and the pay-off matrix basically by making the cost of being armed much higher(**)---this being the only difference as the rest of the world has the same percentages of violent movies, computer games, mental health problems, students, domestic issues, etc. as the US---so mutual cooperation is the preferred strategy.

(**) So you can generally expect that the other person is not armed and therefore would collaborate. Aside from seeing the effect of this in the nearly non-existent mass-shootings elsewhere you also see it in the number of people killed by cops which are far lower than in the US.

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Riggerjack
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Riggerjack » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:11 pm

@ Jacob

I agree. And most of my gun nut friends agree. Guns are fun, but I would happily turn them in if I was the last gun owner.

The problem is we have never come up with a feasible plan to disarm criminals. The only plan has been to disarm citizens, and hope that after enough time passes, criminals would run out of guns through attrition.

But the genie is out, you can print guns. I can machine a new receiver for an ak-47 from scrap sheet metal with a harbor frieght press, brake, and drill, all the rest of the parts are available online, untracked in any way. I can cast a gun. I can cut off the end of a hydraulic cylinder, drill out a fuse hole, and I have a black powder cannon in under 15 minutes. The only part of a gun that takes any kind of special tooling is the barrel. Barrel rifling goes back centuries, so good luck suppressing that.

So, attrition won't cut it. Guns are fully developed, and part of the culture. There is too much general knowledge out there to suppress. Confiscation of all the guns, would just make all this firearm machining knowledge more valuable.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by jacob » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:49 pm

@Riggerjack - This manufacturing knowledge and tooling is also available in the rest of the world. Enough people are perfectly capable of manufacturing machine guns in bicycle shops for the local resistance if the country gets invaded. Otherwise, it's not something people do in the mass numbers you seem to imply. Because it's highly illegal. Same reason why Americans don't habitually convert their legal semi-autos to full-autos although that knowledge is also there. Making things illegal will not suppress the knowledge, but it will put a damper on the use of that knowledge.

As for criminals, it stands to reason that they will bother less to source an illegal gun (at 8-10x the store-price) if odds are low that their adversaries are unarmed---which is generally the case outside the US. A robbery in Europe or Japan is far less likely to have a lethal outcome for the person being robbed than it does in the US. Seeing how criminals ex-US are less likely to carry, police in other countries are also far less twitchy when engaging criminals which then explains why police kill far more criminals in the US than ex-US.

Now, I don't think laws can change culture. But culture can definitely change laws albeit usually with some kind of lag effect.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by Campitor » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:57 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:11 pm
@ Jacob
But the genie is out, you can print guns. I can machine a new receiver for an ak-47 from scrap sheet metal with a harbor frieght press, brake, and drill, all the rest of the parts are available online, untracked in any way. I can cast a gun. I can cut off the end of a hydraulic cylinder, drill out a fuse hole, and I have a black powder cannon in under 15 minutes. The only part of a gun that takes any kind of special tooling is the barrel. Barrel rifling goes back centuries, so good luck suppressing that.

So, attrition won't cut it. Guns are fully developed, and part of the culture. There is too much general knowledge out there to suppress. Confiscation of all the guns, would just make all this firearm machining knowledge more valuable.
@ Rigger

I completely agree.
If guns can be made in a 3rd world hovel as show in the videos above, I have little reason to believe that a knowledgeable US machinist with access to modern machinery couldn't do the same. Or they can go the DIY route and make their own machine lathes per the instructions provided in the bottom 2 links and start popping out black market guns. I'm sure gun making recipes will be bought and sold on the black market quite readily if a ban is implemented. And gun-bans are a moot point until that 2nd amendment is done away with via ratification by 38 of the 50 states.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by jacob » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:18 pm

I suppose what you guys are saying that insofar there was a constitutional amendment analogous to the 18th amendment (prohibition of alcohol) that prohibited some or all guns, then this would not materially reduce gun ownership because most people would break the law and shortly start making their own guns or at least easily be able to source one from a "friend" because the knowledge/materials is out there.

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Re: Guns in America

Post by Campitor » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:08 pm

jacob wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:18 pm
I suppose what you guys are saying that insofar there was a constitutional amendment analogous to the 18th amendment (prohibition of alcohol) that prohibited some or all guns, then this would not materially reduce gun ownership because most people would break the law and shortly start making their own guns or at least easily be able to source one from a "friend" because the knowledge/materials is out there.
That is exactly what I'm saying. Gun bans face too many hurdles for it to be a practical or inexpensive in terms of enforcement.

The biggest hurdles to gun bans in my opinion:
  1. A 2nd amendment ban will never pass because historically and presently, most people believe in some form of gun ownership. Ratification of 3/4 states (38 out of 50) is highly unlikely.
  2. Ex military and police, thanks to their training, are taught that weapons are important and indispensable. Many have seen the worst of humanity and would be hyper reluctant to turn in their guns.
  3. Too many people know how to make guns. They will readily share this knowledge if a gun ban is put in place.
  4. The equipment to make bootleg guns is the same equipment needed to machine car parts, industrial parts, etc., so banning gun making equipment is IMPOSSIBLE without destroying a large sector of our economy.
  5. It's easy to build your own gun lathe with very accessible items that have multiple uses. You can even smelt your own gun metal with a DIY furnace.
  6. Cartels and smugglers will start selling guns to fill the void of the crippled 31.8 billion dollar US gun industry.
  7. The military and agents of the state will still have guns. Some of those guns will find their way into civilian hands: ‘Easy money’ made selling Army weapons stolen by US soldiers.
  8. Criminals don't care about laws and will ignore any gun bans. They will start hustling guns like they currently hustle drugs. illegal guns will be as plentiful as illegal drugs imho.
The biggest hurdles to stopping mass killings:
  1. Bad guys with brains and determination.
  2. Media sensationalizing and immortalizing mass murderers.

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BRUTE
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Re: Guns in America

Post by BRUTE » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:03 pm

jacob wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:49 pm
machine guns in bicycle shops
this casual misnomer about firearms annoys brute. the Sten is not a machine gun. words have meanings. this is the same attitude as casually calling things "semi-automatic" or "assault rifle". brute isn't sure if it's actual ignorance or virtue signaling to other gun-haters that the speaker knows nothing about firearms (like saying "sportsball").

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Re: Guns in America

Post by ffj » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:23 pm

@Kreigsspeil

So now the story is that four deputies stayed put and didn't enter when it mattered, apparently if true they waited until the municipal police showed up and by then it was too late.

I'm not a police officer but I've worked with and been around a lot of them. I find it very hard to believe that four of them hid behind their cars while kids were being shot. They must have been following their departments policy or they didn't have one regarding school shootings which led to confusion. The alternative is that they were scared and stayed put, which I find very hard to entertain, but I don't know. I do know that cops follow orders though.

I don't trust this Sheriff Israel dude. All of his actions are leading me to believe he is projecting here. He's hiding something in my opinion.

Just another series of failures in this massacre.

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Riggerjack
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Riggerjack » Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:29 am

@ Jacob

Oh, I'm sure an Australian style confiscation would get a significant percentage of guns. 66-75%, I think. But probably 98%of gun owners would turn in their guns, or go through whatever is needed to comply.. As I said, the community tends to the extreme law abiding end of the spectrum. But that 98% wasn't the problem.

All you have done now is make the fringe even more distant and unconnected to the community, and give a monopoly on firearms to the cops and robbers. It's not like the same guys who have records and still have guns (despite the additional charges he will rack up for possession) are concerned about whether they will need it against joe public, he's concerned by his competition. He's concerned about maintaining his Independence from organized crime. He's concerned about getting a 3 second head start on the cops. That his prey is also unarmed is simply a bonus. But organized crime will always have guns. It's part of the business model. They will have what they already do, they will stock up during a confiscation, and they will set up shops for manufacturing when it's needed. Because organized crime is all about the implied threat. It's how they keep their people in line, it's how they interact with competition. Legality and whether the common citizen is armed are influencing factors, not determining factors.

And I mentioned organized crime, right? All these gun free Utopias on the continent still have organized crime. I don't know the numbers, because the source is an advocate of gun nuttery, but supposedly, the UK has a much higher rate of "hot burglaries" where the burglar is acting, knowing someone is at home. It's not like going to the European systems comes all benefits, no costs. They have entirely separate histories and cultures. None of them ever had to disarm a significant fraction of their population, with the Australian exception. I am watching to see how that goes. Give it a few decades to see how it works out in the long term.

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Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Guns in America

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:25 am

I received active shooter training and the officer said that the model until very recently in an active shooter situation was to set up a perimeter outside the building and wait for the swat team or negotiators to take over. It was built on a time when the gunman was taking hostages and making demands, not killing as many as possible. He said that their new policy is the first officer goes in even if they are alone. Maybe the police in this situation were still using the old model.

In these gun arguments it seems like a strawman is always set up, though probably not intentionally. Policy changes that realistically could happen are things like longer waiting periods to buy, limits on magazine size, better background checks and limits on who can own, etc. Instead the people who like guns bring up confiscation of all guns and how people will hoard guns and manufacture them. Sure, a ban is a possibility but it is so unlikely that I mostly see bringing it up as a tactic to avoid discussing policies that actually might be implemented.

Before I get labeled as a "gun grabber" (not helpful terminology for having a discussion), note that I have plenty of experience with and mostly like guns, though I don't feel I need any in my life right now.

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