US Politicking

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
ThisDinosaur
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Re: US Politicking

Post by ThisDinosaur » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:25 am

I don't see why this has to stir up any pots. Its clearly labeled under "Politics/eternal disagreements," and the rule is it has to have an ERE angle. That's easy. Accurate information about the head of state's plans is necessary for updating personal strategy.

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:56 am

Here's an example of what I was saying wrt Weinstein and media conglomerates ...

The security guard from Mandalay Bay who was shot by by Paddock was supposed to appear on Hannity last week and 'disappeared' at the last minute. Even the police have been looking for him. Yesterday he surfaced taping the Ellen show. (WaPo)

Why is NBC allowing this? Campos is a huge 'get' and they're letting Ellen do the interview? Why isn't Holt doing it, or at least doing one first? NBC has multiple deals with Ellen and could have pressed her production company into passing along the interview. No offense to Ellen, but she's not a journalist and her show is entertainment, not news.

I'm not going to wade into the fake news debate, but media outlets share a lot of the blame for blurring the lines between entertainment and news, calling into question the integrity of their news product.

J_
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Re: US Politicking

Post by J_ » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:10 pm

Dear Jennypenny, thanks for acting as our faithful american "forummaid" who gives measured opinions to not so well informed outsiders!

bryan
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Re: US Politicking

Post by bryan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:32 pm

jennypenny wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:48 pm
Oprah IS polling well. There's talk that she could get some crossover vote in the deep south and northern cities that went for Trump if she ran (I've heard Biden would like her as a running mate). Her stint on 60 Minutes is to gage the public's acceptance of her foray into political issues. FWIW, I thought she did well in her first appearance.
After Trump's success in vote-getting (and previous celebrity politicians), it seems clear that a political office is Oprah's for the taking. I can't think of a demographic that especially dislikes Oprah. While we're at it, let's get Nick Saban, Ozzie Newsome, Gregg Popovich, Bob Dylan, Beyonce, Paul McCartney, Santana, Morgan Freeman, etc etc to seek a public office?

Seppia
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Re: US Politicking

Post by Seppia » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:32 pm

Sorry for the tangent, but I'm a huge Pop fan and cannot help myself

I would vote Pop for anything he cared to run for.
That guy is so charismatic, naturally liked by all people under and around him, cares about others
read/listen to the stories of many players who played for him.
The two most impressive I remember are
One from patty mills (Australian of native descent) who said almost cried when Pop at the beginning of a film session announced to the team they were paying respect because it was a special day for one of them. Pop had actually learned that random day X was native Australian heritage day or whatever and acknowledged it.
The second incredible one was a podcast with Richard Jefferson, who was a big signing for the spurs at a certain time and was a total bust there. When asked "what's the best coach you had" he mentioned Pop "no question".
Incredible, thinking that his experience there was terrible from a production standpoint. Normally players like the coaches that they succeeded with

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:54 am

I dunno, I'd group Oprah with Iger and Zuckerberg, not Beyonce and Popovich. She built a media empire and on more than just her entertainment value. Quite an accomplishment for a poor black woman from Mississippi. Think of the head start guys like Iger and Zuckerberg got compared to her. IIRC, she was the first black female billionaire -- that takes more than just interview skills.

George the original one
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Re: US Politicking

Post by George the original one » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:15 pm

Oprah is a popular, savvy communicator and organizer. No matter what political values she represents, she could easily be a shoe-in if she chooses to run.

Seppia
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Re: US Politicking

Post by Seppia » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:47 am

Am I the only one who keeps refreshing the forum in hopes for JP's take/insider info on the recent news?
The Manafort indictment seems pretty juicy stuff.

Tyler9000
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Re: US Politicking

Post by Tyler9000 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:02 am

Seppia wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:47 am
Am I the only one who keeps refreshing the forum in hopes for JP's take/insider info on the recent news?
Nope. :D

I'm looking forward to JP's next post.

J_
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Re: US Politicking

Post by J_ » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:04 pm

I am a fan of her too, com'on Jenny!

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:29 pm

Sorry, I had a funeral today and I have my quarterly tomorrow ... it might be a few days before I can post anything substantial.

Perusing my inbox tonight ...

People are surprised at the Manafort indictment because even though what he did is horrible and he's a sleazy guy, lobbyists are rarely prosecuted for such things. They think that could be a sign that the investigation is stalled and they are trying to press Manafort to cooperate. I'm told there's no way he'd roll (he's not the type) but others might come forward.

The agreement with Papadopolous is also giving the impression that the flow of information is stalled. Word is he's been wearing a wire (has that confirmed publicly yet?) but not much has come out of it.*

The WH was relieved when they saw the substance of the indictments.

Reporters were surprised that Sanders spoke so openly at today's press briefing. I wonder if the WH legal team gave her the go ahead to discuss the investigation and indictments. Seems to me like they should contain the matter by referring all questions to the legal team so the investigation doesn't dominate the daily briefings.

Politico.com has a couple of pieces up tonight that are worth reading. Ken Silverstein has a piece on the lobbying laws related to Manafort's indictment and Tim Alberta has an interesting piece on John Boehner that illustrates the evolution (devolution?) of politics over the last 25 years in Washington.


*Take 'nothing more to report' with a grain of salt. Reporters have become fairly cynical over the last 18 months. Many assume that if there are no leaks, there must be nothing good enough to leak (when there's no smoke, they assume there's no fire). Some also feel burned and not just by Trump (like with the DNC denials of involvement in the dossier), so there's a little righteous indignation mixed in with the cynicism right now.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking

Post by TheWanderingScholar » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:32 am

That John Boehner story was really eye-opening, and kind of reaffirmed my viewpoints a little: that with the rise of the internet and social media, echo chambers have risen, and governance has kind of gotten in the back set of the partisanship/idealogue purity. And with the rise of Trump, who seems to just saying whatever makes him popular, is the large bag of puss that is the symptom in this Bubonic plague.

And I say this as a guy who used to like the Republican Party growing up, who would have voted for Mitt Romney and/or John McCain if I could. However the modern iteration of the Republican party does not seem to seem a cohesive message.

And while it would be easy to say that I am a Democrat, I am worried about possible populist left taking it over in the future when Pelosi and the rest of the old guard leave.

------

Sorry for the political rambling, did not want to hijack your post. Just wanted to speak my mind on the current events.

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:21 pm

Democrats are publicly claiming a 'big' victory in yesterday's elections. Privately, they are just happy that they won in Virginia and that voter turnout was high. A loss would have meant more than a win. NJ had really low voter turnout but no one thought Guadagno (the republican) had a chance.

Donna Brazile is really taking it on the chin. Dems are furious with her for 'airing dirty laundry' but she is saying that until the democrats come to terms with what happened last year they can't move forward. She wants more changes within the structure of the party. I personally think they are burying the story a little. If Priebus wrote a book with claims like these, everyone would be talking about it. That said, between the church shooting, Trump's Asia trip, the events in SA, and the election, it's not hard for news organizations to pivot to other stories.*

Someone told me months ago that 'it's dirty all around' and now I know what he was saying.

Speaking of which, apparently FusionGPS met with Russians before they met with Trump and before they produced the dossier. I don't know if it's relevant yet, but it certainly gives the appearance that Trump's campaign could have been set up. I want to say I don't think it matters because if it looks like they could have been involved in setting up the meetings, that should be enough to clear Trump. OTOH, who knows anymore. Fusion's bank records seem even more important now and investigators are pushing the judge to make them release all of their bank records.

People are saying that Mueller is putting the screws to Flynn Jr to get Flynn Sr to roll. Both are holding firm for now but Flynn Sr is apoplectic. (fyi...they aren't really jr/sr, they have different middle names)

Trump has been ill lately and is struggling a little on this trip.

The tax plan was delayed but not because it's stalled. The Senate is working hard to produce a passable bill because their's is the one that will eventually pass. I've heard they are considering leaving the estate tax as is to increase revenue, and they might phase in corporate tax cuts to help with budget offsets. Remember, the Senate and House function very differently in this kind of legislation. A House member represents a much smaller number of people who are usually homogeneous. That means that they will vote up or down depending on legislation that affects their district directly. (for example, a House member representing an area in a high tax, high income district in NJ or NY will feel forced to reject any bill that removes local tax deductions or lowers the mortgage tax deduction.) A Senator represents the entire state so has to appease a more diverse group of people. For that reason, the Senate rarely passes the House bill because it's too partisan. In this case, the bill crafted by the Senate is the only one with a chance of passing both chambers of Congress. They are trying to put out a bill that doesn't need much negotiation because they are short on time. Fundraising is dropping because of the lack of progress in the legislature. (<--that's what they care about, not whether Trump's agenda goes through)

The tax bill might be watered down (not really reform as was promised), but if I had to guess, I'd say it will pass and in time for 2018 implementation. They'll have nothing to run on in 2018 otherwise.


* This is where Trump's inexperience and the lack of unity in the parties can show. I remember when Cruz did that crazy filibuster with Mike Lee a few years ago. Republican leadership tried to talk him out of it because they'd heard that the Obamacare rollout was going to be a disaster and they wanted that to be the story. Cruz's stunt gave political reporters something else to talk about other than the disaster at HHS. Never get in the way of other people's bad press.

Seppia
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Re: US Politicking

Post by Seppia » Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:44 am

Thanks for the great info.

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:24 am

I should be more specific when I write ... when I said House districts are 'homogeneous', I meant economically homogeneous. That's why it's an important factor in tax legislation.

BRUTE
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Re: US Politicking

Post by BRUTE » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:57 am

what is jennypenny's opinion on the tax proposal?

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:44 pm

It's not reform as promised. Another potential problem with rushing this stuff through is that with no time for vetting, some people might get an unexpected hit (and not the people they hope will pay more). The same thing happened with Obamacare when there was that weird income cliff where people went from getting a lot of assistance to getting none.

The Moore mess is more incentive to push through whatever watered-down bill they can pass. Moore says he's not withdrawing from the election and polls show people aren't immediately turned off of the idea of voting for him. He was going to be a PITA for Republican leadership anyway and now that they all said he should step down, if he's still elected then he'll be even more disinclined to cooperate with leadership.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking

Post by TheWanderingScholar » Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:15 pm

Hey jennpenny, have you heard anything about the Tax Overhaul?
-Graduate Student in Europe from America

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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking

Post by jennypenny » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:53 pm

'Overhaul' is a generous term for what might get passed. ;)

Sorry, I'm focused on family stuff this week and haven't had time to confirm the rumors I've heard. I don't like to post anything unless I'm fairly confident in the veracity of the information.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking

Post by TheWanderingScholar » Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:39 pm

No problem! I am just kind of worried/calculating if I have to close off another option in the future.

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