US Politicking
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George the original one
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Re: US Politicking
Oprah is a popular, savvy communicator and organizer. No matter what political values she represents, she could easily be a shoe-in if she chooses to run.
Re: US Politicking
Am I the only one who keeps refreshing the forum in hopes for JP's take/insider info on the recent news?
The Manafort indictment seems pretty juicy stuff.
The Manafort indictment seems pretty juicy stuff.
Re: US Politicking
I am a fan of her too, com'on Jenny!
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
Sorry, I had a funeral today and I have my quarterly tomorrow ... it might be a few days before I can post anything substantial.
Perusing my inbox tonight ...
People are surprised at the Manafort indictment because even though what he did is horrible and he's a sleazy guy, lobbyists are rarely prosecuted for such things. They think that could be a sign that the investigation is stalled and they are trying to press Manafort to cooperate. I'm told there's no way he'd roll (he's not the type) but others might come forward.
The agreement with Papadopolous is also giving the impression that the flow of information is stalled. Word is he's been wearing a wire (has that confirmed publicly yet?) but not much has come out of it.*
The WH was relieved when they saw the substance of the indictments.
Reporters were surprised that Sanders spoke so openly at today's press briefing. I wonder if the WH legal team gave her the go ahead to discuss the investigation and indictments. Seems to me like they should contain the matter by referring all questions to the legal team so the investigation doesn't dominate the daily briefings.
Politico.com has a couple of pieces up tonight that are worth reading. Ken Silverstein has a piece on the lobbying laws related to Manafort's indictment and Tim Alberta has an interesting piece on John Boehner that illustrates the evolution (devolution?) of politics over the last 25 years in Washington.
*Take 'nothing more to report' with a grain of salt. Reporters have become fairly cynical over the last 18 months. Many assume that if there are no leaks, there must be nothing good enough to leak (when there's no smoke, they assume there's no fire). Some also feel burned and not just by Trump (like with the DNC denials of involvement in the dossier), so there's a little righteous indignation mixed in with the cynicism right now.
Perusing my inbox tonight ...
People are surprised at the Manafort indictment because even though what he did is horrible and he's a sleazy guy, lobbyists are rarely prosecuted for such things. They think that could be a sign that the investigation is stalled and they are trying to press Manafort to cooperate. I'm told there's no way he'd roll (he's not the type) but others might come forward.
The agreement with Papadopolous is also giving the impression that the flow of information is stalled. Word is he's been wearing a wire (has that confirmed publicly yet?) but not much has come out of it.*
The WH was relieved when they saw the substance of the indictments.
Reporters were surprised that Sanders spoke so openly at today's press briefing. I wonder if the WH legal team gave her the go ahead to discuss the investigation and indictments. Seems to me like they should contain the matter by referring all questions to the legal team so the investigation doesn't dominate the daily briefings.
Politico.com has a couple of pieces up tonight that are worth reading. Ken Silverstein has a piece on the lobbying laws related to Manafort's indictment and Tim Alberta has an interesting piece on John Boehner that illustrates the evolution (devolution?) of politics over the last 25 years in Washington.
*Take 'nothing more to report' with a grain of salt. Reporters have become fairly cynical over the last 18 months. Many assume that if there are no leaks, there must be nothing good enough to leak (when there's no smoke, they assume there's no fire). Some also feel burned and not just by Trump (like with the DNC denials of involvement in the dossier), so there's a little righteous indignation mixed in with the cynicism right now.
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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking
That John Boehner story was really eye-opening, and kind of reaffirmed my viewpoints a little: that with the rise of the internet and social media, echo chambers have risen, and governance has kind of gotten in the back set of the partisanship/idealogue purity. And with the rise of Trump, who seems to just saying whatever makes him popular, is the large bag of puss that is the symptom in this Bubonic plague.
And I say this as a guy who used to like the Republican Party growing up, who would have voted for Mitt Romney and/or John McCain if I could. However the modern iteration of the Republican party does not seem to seem a cohesive message.
And while it would be easy to say that I am a Democrat, I am worried about possible populist left taking it over in the future when Pelosi and the rest of the old guard leave.
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Sorry for the political rambling, did not want to hijack your post. Just wanted to speak my mind on the current events.
And I say this as a guy who used to like the Republican Party growing up, who would have voted for Mitt Romney and/or John McCain if I could. However the modern iteration of the Republican party does not seem to seem a cohesive message.
And while it would be easy to say that I am a Democrat, I am worried about possible populist left taking it over in the future when Pelosi and the rest of the old guard leave.
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Sorry for the political rambling, did not want to hijack your post. Just wanted to speak my mind on the current events.
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
Democrats are publicly claiming a 'big' victory in yesterday's elections. Privately, they are just happy that they won in Virginia and that voter turnout was high. A loss would have meant more than a win. NJ had really low voter turnout but no one thought Guadagno (the republican) had a chance.
Donna Brazile is really taking it on the chin. Dems are furious with her for 'airing dirty laundry' but she is saying that until the democrats come to terms with what happened last year they can't move forward. She wants more changes within the structure of the party. I personally think they are burying the story a little. If Priebus wrote a book with claims like these, everyone would be talking about it. That said, between the church shooting, Trump's Asia trip, the events in SA, and the election, it's not hard for news organizations to pivot to other stories.*
Someone told me months ago that 'it's dirty all around' and now I know what he was saying.
Speaking of which, apparently FusionGPS met with Russians before they met with Trump and before they produced the dossier. I don't know if it's relevant yet, but it certainly gives the appearance that Trump's campaign could have been set up. I want to say I don't think it matters because if it looks like they could have been involved in setting up the meetings, that should be enough to clear Trump. OTOH, who knows anymore. Fusion's bank records seem even more important now and investigators are pushing the judge to make them release all of their bank records.
People are saying that Mueller is putting the screws to Flynn Jr to get Flynn Sr to roll. Both are holding firm for now but Flynn Sr is apoplectic. (fyi...they aren't really jr/sr, they have different middle names)
Trump has been ill lately and is struggling a little on this trip.
The tax plan was delayed but not because it's stalled. The Senate is working hard to produce a passable bill because their's is the one that will eventually pass. I've heard they are considering leaving the estate tax as is to increase revenue, and they might phase in corporate tax cuts to help with budget offsets. Remember, the Senate and House function very differently in this kind of legislation. A House member represents a much smaller number of people who are usually homogeneous. That means that they will vote up or down depending on legislation that affects their district directly. (for example, a House member representing an area in a high tax, high income district in NJ or NY will feel forced to reject any bill that removes local tax deductions or lowers the mortgage tax deduction.) A Senator represents the entire state so has to appease a more diverse group of people. For that reason, the Senate rarely passes the House bill because it's too partisan. In this case, the bill crafted by the Senate is the only one with a chance of passing both chambers of Congress. They are trying to put out a bill that doesn't need much negotiation because they are short on time. Fundraising is dropping because of the lack of progress in the legislature. (<--that's what they care about, not whether Trump's agenda goes through)
The tax bill might be watered down (not really reform as was promised), but if I had to guess, I'd say it will pass and in time for 2018 implementation. They'll have nothing to run on in 2018 otherwise.
* This is where Trump's inexperience and the lack of unity in the parties can show. I remember when Cruz did that crazy filibuster with Mike Lee a few years ago. Republican leadership tried to talk him out of it because they'd heard that the Obamacare rollout was going to be a disaster and they wanted that to be the story. Cruz's stunt gave political reporters something else to talk about other than the disaster at HHS. Never get in the way of other people's bad press.
Donna Brazile is really taking it on the chin. Dems are furious with her for 'airing dirty laundry' but she is saying that until the democrats come to terms with what happened last year they can't move forward. She wants more changes within the structure of the party. I personally think they are burying the story a little. If Priebus wrote a book with claims like these, everyone would be talking about it. That said, between the church shooting, Trump's Asia trip, the events in SA, and the election, it's not hard for news organizations to pivot to other stories.*
Someone told me months ago that 'it's dirty all around' and now I know what he was saying.
Speaking of which, apparently FusionGPS met with Russians before they met with Trump and before they produced the dossier. I don't know if it's relevant yet, but it certainly gives the appearance that Trump's campaign could have been set up. I want to say I don't think it matters because if it looks like they could have been involved in setting up the meetings, that should be enough to clear Trump. OTOH, who knows anymore. Fusion's bank records seem even more important now and investigators are pushing the judge to make them release all of their bank records.
People are saying that Mueller is putting the screws to Flynn Jr to get Flynn Sr to roll. Both are holding firm for now but Flynn Sr is apoplectic. (fyi...they aren't really jr/sr, they have different middle names)
Trump has been ill lately and is struggling a little on this trip.
The tax plan was delayed but not because it's stalled. The Senate is working hard to produce a passable bill because their's is the one that will eventually pass. I've heard they are considering leaving the estate tax as is to increase revenue, and they might phase in corporate tax cuts to help with budget offsets. Remember, the Senate and House function very differently in this kind of legislation. A House member represents a much smaller number of people who are usually homogeneous. That means that they will vote up or down depending on legislation that affects their district directly. (for example, a House member representing an area in a high tax, high income district in NJ or NY will feel forced to reject any bill that removes local tax deductions or lowers the mortgage tax deduction.) A Senator represents the entire state so has to appease a more diverse group of people. For that reason, the Senate rarely passes the House bill because it's too partisan. In this case, the bill crafted by the Senate is the only one with a chance of passing both chambers of Congress. They are trying to put out a bill that doesn't need much negotiation because they are short on time. Fundraising is dropping because of the lack of progress in the legislature. (<--that's what they care about, not whether Trump's agenda goes through)
The tax bill might be watered down (not really reform as was promised), but if I had to guess, I'd say it will pass and in time for 2018 implementation. They'll have nothing to run on in 2018 otherwise.
* This is where Trump's inexperience and the lack of unity in the parties can show. I remember when Cruz did that crazy filibuster with Mike Lee a few years ago. Republican leadership tried to talk him out of it because they'd heard that the Obamacare rollout was going to be a disaster and they wanted that to be the story. Cruz's stunt gave political reporters something else to talk about other than the disaster at HHS. Never get in the way of other people's bad press.
Re: US Politicking
Thanks for the great info.
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
I should be more specific when I write ... when I said House districts are 'homogeneous', I meant economically homogeneous. That's why it's an important factor in tax legislation.
Re: US Politicking
what is jennypenny's opinion on the tax proposal?
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
It's not reform as promised. Another potential problem with rushing this stuff through is that with no time for vetting, some people might get an unexpected hit (and not the people they hope will pay more). The same thing happened with Obamacare when there was that weird income cliff where people went from getting a lot of assistance to getting none.
The Moore mess is more incentive to push through whatever watered-down bill they can pass. Moore says he's not withdrawing from the election and polls show people aren't immediately turned off of the idea of voting for him. He was going to be a PITA for Republican leadership anyway and now that they all said he should step down, if he's still elected then he'll be even more disinclined to cooperate with leadership.
The Moore mess is more incentive to push through whatever watered-down bill they can pass. Moore says he's not withdrawing from the election and polls show people aren't immediately turned off of the idea of voting for him. He was going to be a PITA for Republican leadership anyway and now that they all said he should step down, if he's still elected then he'll be even more disinclined to cooperate with leadership.
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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking
Hey jennpenny, have you heard anything about the Tax Overhaul?
-Graduate Student in Europe from America
-Graduate Student in Europe from America
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
'Overhaul' is a generous term for what might get passed. 
Sorry, I'm focused on family stuff this week and haven't had time to confirm the rumors I've heard. I don't like to post anything unless I'm fairly confident in the veracity of the information.
Sorry, I'm focused on family stuff this week and haven't had time to confirm the rumors I've heard. I don't like to post anything unless I'm fairly confident in the veracity of the information.
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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: US Politicking
No problem! I am just kind of worried/calculating if I have to close off another option in the future.
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
If you don't know much about the Uranium One deal and why it's in the news, here is the short story and the long story.
It's curious that the reporting has been off on this one. One connected DC reporter told me "I'm just not seeing what the story is here." It seems odd that this story isn't getting more attention given all of the current paranoia surrounding Russia. One reason could be political, but the problems seem to stem from Justice and not the Administration at this point (which included Obama and Clinton at the time). If it turns out that the FBI is at fault and didn't communicate the information properly, that would be an interesting wrinkle since the head of the FBI during this period was none other than Robert Mueller, who is now special counsel overseeing the FBI's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
It's curious that the reporting has been off on this one. One connected DC reporter told me "I'm just not seeing what the story is here." It seems odd that this story isn't getting more attention given all of the current paranoia surrounding Russia. One reason could be political, but the problems seem to stem from Justice and not the Administration at this point (which included Obama and Clinton at the time). If it turns out that the FBI is at fault and didn't communicate the information properly, that would be an interesting wrinkle since the head of the FBI during this period was none other than Robert Mueller, who is now special counsel overseeing the FBI's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Re: US Politicking
No insider info from me, but the theory floating around that I find plausible is that the justice department is being intentionally cagey about U1 because it's already a focus of the Mueller investigation. People assume Mueller was complicit because he was FBI director at the time, but for all we know the deal was done over his objections and now he is uniquely positioned to make things right. Because the media relies on leaks to function and generally has run with the Russia/Trump narrative for a year now, they're pretty much blind to things going on behind the scenes and are easily distracted by an occasional strategically-dropped anti-Trump leak.jennypenny wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:26 amIt's curious that the reporting has been off on this one. One connected DC reporter told me "I'm just not seeing what the story is here." It seems odd that this story isn't getting more attention given all of the current paranoia surrounding Russia. One reason could be political, but the problems seem to stem from Justice and not the Administration at this point
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jennypenny
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Re: US Politicking
Trump is usually pretty good at reading the mood of the public at large (if not the political mood within DC), but he totally misread public sentiment wrt Moore. I took this picture while picking up groceries this morning. For those not familiar with NYC media, it's rare to see both the Daily News (liberal-leaning) and the NY Post (conservative-leaning) running with the same headline ...
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plantingourpennies
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Re: US Politicking
Pervnado intensifies.