2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Should you squeeze the toothpaste tube in the middle or from the end?
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Gilberto de Piento
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2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:14 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ecord.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/scie ... ecord.html
Global temperatures have continued to rise, making 2016 the hottest year on the historical record and the third consecutive record-breaking year, scientists say. Of the 17 hottest years ever recorded, 16 have now occurred since 2000.

Frugalitifree
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Frugalitifree » Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:14 pm

Someone tell Mr Trump

IlliniDave
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:26 pm

Or all of us here in the Southeast US. The last couple winters had some early warm periods, but the summers have been milder than they were the first 15 years I lived here, and this year it is almost July and I think we've only hit 90*F twice the whole year. Must be those pesky guys Christie and Spencer over at UAH. :) I linked some "data" in another thread somewhere about future climate in Minnesota, and of all the things they showed the really odd piece of data was that spring in the Southeast/Mid-south has been coming later versus earlier in areas north of here. Maybe my plan to flee northward is not such a good one after all.

ducknalddon
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ducknalddon » Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:54 am

Frugalitifree wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:14 pm
Someone tell Mr Trump
Like most politicians Trump says what will get him elected, not what he believes. If you want to change things you have to convince the people that vote for him.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:57 am

Someone tell Mr Trump
Why? Do you think he would care? Or do you think nobody has?

Because really, he has/will have/can have very little to do about it.

If half the people who "cared" about CC "really did" something about it, there would be a fucking revolution. But really, ecological sensitivity is a brand identity, about as popular and as deeply felt as Harley Davidson.

We used to be able to signal with our Harley Davidson edition f-150. Now we have a hybrid Yukon. World... Changed.

What's on the next channel?

Frugalitifree
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Frugalitifree » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:22 am

He can show some leadership in the right direction. That's what real politics is about. But I agree, critical mass un a bottom-up forcing of the agenda would be most effective in creating a platform for change.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ThisDinosaur » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:59 am

CC is a political issue because fossil fuel companies donate disproportionately to republican reelection campaigns. If you fixed campaign finance, you'd get past the partisanship and the lying. But you'd still have to deal with selfishness and the fact that carbon-burning energy is still cheaper than most other kinds, sans subsidies.

During the last democratic primary, I considered registering as a democrat (I'm an independent) so I could vote for Martin O'Malley. That was before I got an education about EROEI in the Renewable Future thread.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:14 am

He can show some leadership in the right direction.
Has he shown you some indication of wanting to " show some leadership in the right direction"?

Do you think he just hasn't heard?

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:41 am

CC is a political issue because fossil fuel companies donate disproportionately to republican reelection campaigns.
Don't be silly. CC is a political issue because proponents (back when they called it GW) chose to address it as a political issue.

It's not like corporations have a line on their quarterly report where they account for congressmen as depreciating assets. No, corporations don't make political contributions because they add value. They make political contributions because they are are cheaper than the other options.

"Nice oil well you have there, it'd be a shame if we had to regulate it..." Congressional seats are as expensive as there are, because it gets you a piece of the protection racket congress has been running for 200 years.

But it's always amusing when someone talks about campaign finance reform, as though that would do anything more than increase the profits of the protection racket, making seats even more valuable.

That aside from the issue of somehow using the political professionals to hamper the rewards to political professionals. Logic akin to "I'll make a knife so sharp it will cut itself!" :lol:

ThisDinosaur
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ThisDinosaur » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:52 am

I like the idea of government as a protection racket. I think the balance of power is currently the other way around, though.

Don't you think it would be an improvement if elected representatives weren't incentivized to lie for the highest bidder? They all lie for themselves, that's a given. But they're currently being paid to lie (convincingly, it seems) on behalf of wealthy polluters.

Yes, corruption in some form is inevitable, but campaign finance reform seems like low hanging fruit.

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BRUTE
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by BRUTE » Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:05 am

what will campaign finance reform fix? the masses will just be pulled into another direction, that's not necessarily better.

brute thinks a)it's never going to be reformed and b)it wouldn't make anything better, unless by accident.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:03 am

@ TD

And that's certainly the narrative they are selling. But tell me something. You have been here a while, so I assume your bet worth has gone up.

Do you value $20 like you used to? Or now that you are not living paycheck to paycheck, has $20 turned into just more money? What I'd you were a millionaire, or a multimillionaire? Would $20 have the same value to you?

I ask, because the new, poor congressmen are millionaires, or close, and all of them are after their first term. So do you think these rich folks went through the ordeal of an election to look out for the interests of the little people, but are thwarted by all the money shoved in their faces? Really?

Do you think someone claws their way up to CEO of a large corporation, so they can open up their Scrooge McDuck style vault, and laugh at the poor congressmen pinned down under a stack of gold ingots?

Or do you think that when faced with the option to make a contribution of X, or pay 50X to confirm to new rules, a rational CEO should stand up and pay 50X, because it is the right thing to do? And if said CEO should choose to pay 50X, how does he justify that decision to the board? More importantly, how often should he make that choice? Because paying the 50X is begging for the same choice over, and over again, until he cracks, is fired, or the corporation goes bankrupt.

A tenant who doesn't pay rent has to be evicted, even though this is expensive and generates no rent, or other tenants start getting ideas about also not paying rent. A congressman who isn't getting paid has the same incentive structure to force contributions.

Now, the idea that "evil, corrupt CEOs stop our poor, underpaid civil servants from keeping their campaign promises " is a fine recruiting tool to get enthusiastic volunteers, and a good story to keep votes of an uneducated and disinterested electorate; but it simply doesn't fit the facts. Human nature is what it is. People don't buy what they don't want, especially if they can't even show it off.

But whether congress is organized crime, or CEO's are rich evil men, dressed in black, twirling the ends of their long moustaches, while tieing young ladies to railroad tracks is irrelevant. It is a chicken or egg question.

In the end, private money moves to congress public money moves away. How is separating this group of rich, corrupt, influential, powerful people from their source of riches, corruption, influence, and power "low hanging fruit"?.
Last edited by Riggerjack on Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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GandK
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by GandK » Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:38 am

Riggerjack wrote:
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:57 am
If half the people who "cared" about CC "really did" something about it, there would be a fucking revolution. But really, ecological sensitivity is a brand identity, about as popular and as deeply felt as Harley Davidson.
Yes.

And the default "action" taken today seems to be protesting. I personally find that idiotic, but I wonder if [young] people know what genuinely productive actions are available to them on a topic like climate change, and which are most likely to move the needle (EPA guidelines). I know people who are beside themselves about those terrible Meat Eaters but don't think of monitoring their own electricity usage.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:55 am

Hey, I was one of those protestors, back in the day.
And the default "action" taken today seems to be protesting. I personally find that idiotic, but I wonder if [young] people know what genuinely productive actions are available to them on a topic like climate change, and which are most likely to move the needle (EPA guidelines)
When I was protesting, none of that mattered. I was going to party, pissing off The Man, trying to pick up women, and live up to the munchausen by proxy legends of all my teachers and heroes. Trying to recreate legends of sit ins, love ins, and speaking truth to power. Oh, and if we did something about nukes, that'd be cool, too.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ThisDinosaur » Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:40 pm

Riggerjack, you will be hard pressed to out-cynic me. I think people are animals. But the cynical argument has to make sense.

The rule I'm suggesting would be one that makes elected office non-profitable, and removes the option of paying off congressmen for their opinions. This means the congressman's fake opinions are to be evaluated by voters, not donors.

To Brute's point, yes, the polluters may still fund fake scientists that the laymen can't tell from the real thing. But conflict of interest is much easier to point out in science than in politics. A politician can plausibly argue he gets donations from fossil fuel companies because his opinions "happen" to match their agenda. A scientist on the take has to explain why the only experts who agree with him get funding from the same biased source he does.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:31 pm

So, in your system, if I want my company to get the highway paving project, I wouldn't load my dumptrucks with cash, and deliver them to my congressman's office. Instead, I would hire his idiot brother in law as a caterer, pay him a dumptruck of cash for sandwiches, and it's all cool right?

What exactly is the difference between your proposal, and today?

Are you really suggesting that running for office will require a vow of poverty for the office holder and everyone they know? Or just that we ignore soft money, as we do now?

ThisDinosaur
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ThisDinosaur » Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Politician #1:"The special interests donate to my campaign because they agree with my platform."

Politician #2:"The special interests buy overpriced sandwiches from my brother because they agree with my platform."

I'm suggesting voters will more likely call bullshit on the second guy.

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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:18 pm

I think overall personal spending is the best approximation to actual personal CO2 usage, but for most people who live in first world urban and suburban environments, the creation and maintenance of shared infrastructure is going to take you to world-wide average level right from the get-go. Also, it is my belief that it is ridiculous to consider this matter on a per capita basis since there are maybe 3 human beings on the planet who are truly negative contributors. IOW, if per capita emissions is miraculously cut in half, but meanwhile human population doubles, the forward prospect will actually be more bleak. Therefore, one of the most effective things that I can probably spend my life-energy doing to combat global climate change is teach mathematics to young low-income girls.

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Riggerjack
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:24 pm

Politician #2:"The special interests buy overpriced sandwiches from my brother because they agree with my platform."

I'm suggesting voters will more likely call bullshit on the second guy.
Really? Because that is how it is handled today, without your low hanging fruit laws. The art and history of moving money surreptitiously, is centuries ahead of your proposal.

And when voters chose a douche over the obviously corrupt, it was because they are stupid, deplorable racists who won't move. (See all threads about last year's election, and results)

Now, I'm not in favor of douches, or corruption, or money in politics. But I have looked at this problem fairly deeply. It won't be solved by the political process. I'm fairly certain it will take a violent revolution to simply reset the rules, and allow it to start fresh, a solution far worse than the problem, and one I hope not to experience.

I'm not trying to convince you to give up, that'd be a waste. I'm trying to get you to look deeper. Maybe you will see something I didn't, or think if something I didn't. It'd be nice to have a potential solution, even if it wasn't implemented.

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Tyler9000
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:29 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:57 am
If half the people who "cared" about CC "really did" something about it, there would be a fucking revolution. But really, ecological sensitivity is a brand identity, about as popular and as deeply felt as Harley Davidson.
Exactly.

A Facebook meme bashing "climate deniers" is the new carbon credit and it has about the same effect on the environment. The number of people today who take serious personal action to improve the environment rather than simply virtue signal is vanishingly small.

BTW, you're dead-on with the brand identity observation. Marketers make a killing on that wealthy, self-righteous consumer segment. Why cut back when you can just spend more and feel plenty smug about it?

IlliniDave
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:11 pm

Tyler9000 wrote:
Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:29 pm

Exactly.

A Facebook meme bashing "climate deniers" is the new carbon credit and it has about the same effect on the environment. The number of people today who take serious personal action to improve the environment rather than simply virtue signal is vanishingly small.
Yes, outrage at the deplorables is all that's needed to achieve righteous status. Shake that fist. Among my small circle it even happens that the most vocal climate activists (among the full-fledged adults) live in the biggest houses (sometimes two homes) and spend the most time/miles crisscrossing the country and circling the globe for recreation using fossil fuel. But raising an eyebrow at the 97% cannon, now that is some evil stuff. :?

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BRUTE
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by BRUTE » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:38 pm

Tyler9000 wrote:
Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:29 pm
The number of people today who take serious personal action to improve the environment rather than simply virtue signal is vanishingly small.
brute fixed that for Tyler9000. humans are social animals. they almost always prefer virtue signaling over improved outcome. always have, always will. they need to be lied to or brainwashed in order to accidentally achieve anything good if it doesn't happen to overlap with their social angst.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by ThisDinosaur » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:39 am

@Brute, that sure seems like a good argument AGAINST an unregulated, libertarian, free-for-all being the best solution for all human problems.

@Riggerjack, You're right. I'm probably just very naïve about what this sort of rule would accomplish. I don't believe that there are perfect solutions to problems this complicated, but I do believe incremental improvement is worthwhile. Also, we should probably consider why it has been so hard to get this sort of reform passed. My impression is that its because there is a lot of pushback from the donor class, who like things the way they are.

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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:20 am

@BRUTE: I think it depends a bit on the degree to which "the good" is abstract or concrete. Climate change is going to be like a million babies starving on the other side of the planet, until/unless it becomes one starving baby on your very own doorstep. I believe that you would choose to care for that one starving baby even if you were alone in the woods where nobody could observe you signaling BRUTE DO GOOD.

For the moment, I am back living in one of the Meccas of the Affluent Liberal after several years of living and working in realm that was like tiny microcosm of every refugee problem on the planet combined with severe post-industrial urban blight. It is very nice here. It is an environment built up to the level of allowing humans to accomplish work at the margin of the mass of all prior human accomplishment. There aren't as many burnt out houses, neglected babies in the middle of the street, piles of litter, illiterate 8th graders or stinking drunks urinating in alleyways here.

Last weekend, I was helping my politically conservative BF buy 11 acres of trees that shares frontage with humans who can afford to buy lake property and backage with humans who are quite likely members of a regional militia (and maybe even a bear!) It's very nice there too. So, to me it is just as boring, because predictable, to listen to some humans signal whatever they are signaling when they communicate that other humans are only signaling good, as it is to listen to the other humans who are maybe only signaling good. Yeah, I get it already. NOBODY (whatever color jersey) who lives someplace nice really wants to include some not very nice places, people or projects into their system, because that makes finding an equilibrium solution WAAAAAY harder.

The thing that sucks, sometimes referred to as "reality", is that all those starving babies, all that litter, all that need for education, all those other people and places and projects that are seriously, truly royally f*cked up, and all those lousy hypocrites living in that other nice place, are already attached to your system. DEAL.

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Re: 2016 Hottest Year on Record (Third Record Year in a Row)

Post by Spartan_Warrior » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:17 am

Riggerjack is certainly correct about the futility of campaign finance reform. You have to figure the people who benefit from Citizen's United are the same people who bought it in the first place. Now, how did they do so if CU is the problem? No, CU is a problem, but it's not the problem. Capital always has and always will wield influence over others because it is necessary for survival. It's not plausible to suggest regulating away this coercive influence. Thus, the question is who gets to wield that influence. Under capitalism, it is an increasingly few people, who see their capital compound year after year at the direct expense of the working class that sees less and less in wages for its productivity. I believe last year it was eight people who held half the world's wealth; this year it's down to five? The problem is not that the politicians are taking the money; the problem is that some few people have so much money to throw around. You cannot have a democratic society with unequal distributions of wealth, the two are negatively correlated. If you want democracy, you need a more democratic wealth distribution. If you don't want the disproportionately wealthy to have influence, you need less disproportionate wealth. It really is as simple as that... sadly.

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