The Trump Problem (the real one)

[classical_Liberal]

bla

[bryan]

@ShriekingFeralHatred, do you really believe you can reduce complex systems to a binary model? What you are saying certainly doesn't match the realities I've encountered in the USA.

[Chad]

A really good article by an economist from Cal. It's long, but does a good job of identifying when and how many manufacturing jobs were eliminated, and why, on a macro level, this happened.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/ ... loss-trump

It also briefly touches on some other themes we have talked about, such as the propensity to not move from a depressed economic area to a prospering one.

[Dragline]

The second half of this new EconTalk podcast where they talk about the spread of heroin east of the Mississippi, what kind of problem opioid addiction is, and muse about "why don't people move out of economically depressed areas" is also relevant to this discussion:

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/0 ... es_on.html

[7Wannabe5]

I am reading "Four Futures: Visions of the World After Capitalism" by Peter Frase, and the author mentions a study which showed that all the psychological problems associated with being unemployed almost magically disappeared when unemployed individuals crossed over into retirement age or status. IOW, just feeling justified in being able to say "I am retired." rather than "I am unemployed" greatly improves happiness and cures dysfuntional behavior. Since women are more accustomed to engaging in work through which they derive meaning without direct remuneration, they generally suffer less stigma from "unemployed status." This can be particularly seen in the different social status generally assigned to an unmarried welfare mother vs. a married woman with children whose husband is unemployed.

Also, I would note that there is likely to be an end to our ability to retreat to productive employment not likely to be better facilitated by robots in the near future. Agriculture and manufacturing were just the first to fall. There are expensive machines already designed that will be used to pick delicate fruit crops as soon as there are no longer inexpensive migrant workers available. All the tedious research currently done by junior lawyers will soon be automated, along with every other form of research and customer service at that level.

The funny thing is that if I am reading the author correctly (possible not), this forum might qualify as an example of what Marx really meant when he used the term "commune", IF it was the case that all the investments any of us held were in endeavors largely being carried out by robots or as passionate avocation of other humans. I am taking a class on how to build my own robots, because I realized that PVC are a more efficient convertor of solar energy than potatoes, and I would advise the rest of you to do the same

[Chad]

Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.

Robots/AI will definitely threaten some white collar jobs in the future. Though, if given a chance, which we don't seem to giving it right now, the market and society will create new/different jobs for people. This has happened multiple times in history. I'm sure the hunters and gathers all hated the farmers, the individual weavers all hated the spinning jenny, the farmers/related workers (75% of US population) all hated the industrialization of their profession (less than 2% now), and horse trainers, shit shovelers, buggy manufacturers...all hated Mr. Ford and the automobile.

The only difference now or at any time in history is who has to change. The one slight difference now is that it is happening a little faster and the US is coming off one of the most perfect economic situations in the history of the world, which can't be duplicated again unless millions die.

[Toska2]

The one slight difference now is that it is happening a little faster and the US is coming off one of the most perfect economic situations in the history of the world, which can't be duplicated again unless millions die.

That's two. If I may, I would like to add a third. Capitalism and corporatism has reached the edges of the globe. There is nowhere to "go west and live off the land". The economic engine of the world affects all.

A fourth if you include the central bankers insistence on an always inflationary policy.

[Chad]

Yes, two. Still plenty of places to "go west" to & no I don't believe central banks are a big enough difference to be included with the others.

[thrifty++]

Are people in the USA freaked out by Trump's actions? I am so glad to be far away from it.
I was initially a little blase about Trump's election and thinking it would just be business as usual. But he actually is carrying out the things he said he would and more. What makes me anxious as well is the speed with which he is doing it too. Seems so dictatorial and extremist. Its been less than a week and already: a ban on federal money going to international groups that perform or provide information on abortions: hiring 10,000 more Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents; blocking grants to sanctuary cities: and now he really is going to build a wall FFS. Also I have heard reports that there is a proposal to remove the visa esta waiver programme with 38 countries, including NZ and Aussie, and institute a mandatory interview for anyone entering the USA. FFS no one will want to go there, how weird. Some of the policies being swiftly rolled out seem hate, fear and intolerance based.

[Gilberto de Piento]

For some, Trumps actions are very worrying. For others, it's their dream come true. A third group has barely noticed and thinks it doesn't matter or won't affect them.

[Dragline]

Dismayed, yes. Freaked out about something unexpected, no. He's doing exactly what he said he was going to do. The only people who should be surprised are the ones who didn't believe him or thought he was somehow different from the same person he's been for most of his life.

Most people I know, whether they supported him or not, are hoping that the "adults in the room" who make up about half his advisors will take over at some point. I think that's probably wishful thinking. They're more likely to quit or be fired.

As the Dead Kennedys once sang in the 1980s, "We've Got A Bigger Problem Now." Only they didn't know they were prophets at the time.

[steveo73]

A really good article by an economist from Cal. It's long, but does a good job of identifying when and how many manufacturing jobs were eliminated, and why, on a macro level, this happened.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/ ... loss-trump

It also briefly touches on some other themes we have talked about, such as the propensity to not move from a depressed economic area to a prospering one.

This was a really good article.

[thrifty++]

Oh I just found out that visa waiver proposal was misreported. It appears that there is no proposal to introduce an interview for existing visa waiver countries. Aargh get it right lazy journos!!!

[7Wannabe5]

Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.

No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.

Though, if given a chance, which we don't seem to giving it right now, the market and society will create new/different jobs for people.

True. The author suggests that we only or mostly experience the affluence afforded by automation, and not major associated ecological disasters, then we will likely either move towards a financially egalitarian society in which status is mostly acquired in social context (how many "likes" did your new hairstyle get?) or a financially lopsided situation with "rentiers" (individuals who own real estate, intellectual property rights (increasingly important), robots) at the top and the only employment opportunities available at the bottom will be in fields such as law, security, and robot maintenance. But, this will not be a stable situation due to crash of market demand once all credit has been fully extended and employed. IOW, the maintenance costs of the social construct of capitalism will become increasingly larger share of GDP.

Still plenty of places to "go west" to

True, for instance lots of wide open opportunity here in Detroit. The "West" was never some well-ordered Garden of Eden with fruit hanging low for the picking.

[Chad]

Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.

No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.

I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."

[Chad]

@Thrifty

I fall in with much of what Dragline stated.

This is an example of the adults in the room failing to stop Trump concerning his "millions of illegal" votes claim:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/u ... MU5TAHryYL

This is the exact same type of information I get from certain friends who still live in my hometown.

[7Wannabe5]

Chad said: I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."

There is likely some garden-variety psychologically dysfunctional "need to be needed" manifesting in the 2nd definition, but there is also a whole lot of work that goes towards the maintenance of the huge shared infrastructure of any complex society. For instance, I think it is kind of hard to justify yourself as financially independent if you pay no taxes AND contribute no community service, but use the roadways, borrow books from the library and run on the park trails. Also, there are members of our society and other vulnerable/valued things in the world that simply do not have the means to be self-supporting, so those of us who have more than enough means need to do a bit more. And I don't mean to use "justify" in any sort of blue-haired matron "should" sort of manner, I am simply noting that this is an equation or equilibrium that is bound to break down over the long run if universally applied. Also, it is maybe even easier to be "self-employed" in social or community work than paid/survival work, so it can offer the benefits of autonomy. Even if you don't want to be forced to pay taxes, you can still choose to pick up trash from the park or teach a pack of disadvantaged kids how to kick a soccer ball, and you might even get a little perk of "feel good" from the effort.

[Chad]

Just more info on automation:

https://singularityhub.com/2017/02/01/w ... obots-win/

[Chad]

This is the future of manufacturing. 14 workers produce 500,000 tons of steel wire a year.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technol ... automated/

There is no saving the majority of manufacturing jobs, so problems will continue to show up within this class.

[Chad]

Another piece of the puzzle that has been touched on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/11/opin ... .html?_r=1