Trump - Clown Genius

Should you squeeze the toothpaste tube in the middle or from the end?
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BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:10 pm

Gilberto de Piento wrote:
We need to get passed the tribal mentality and elect more middle of the road candidates and do away with extreme right-wing and left-wing candidates. And the power of the presidency has grown too strong. We need congress to take back its legislative power and behave in a more bipartisan manner. Everyone is so happy to cede power to their candidate until the other side wins the election. No one thinks about the future when they are voting extra power and authority to their president of choice.
Agreed. And get money out of politics and eliminate gerrymandering.
Well, humans have to end apartheid for one.

And slow down the nuclear arms race, stop terrorism and world hunger.

They have to provide food and shelter for the homeless, and oppose racial discrimination and promote civil rights, while also promoting equal rights for women.

Humans have to encourage a return to traditional moral values.
Most importantly, they have to promote general social concern, and less materialism in young people.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:10 pm

BRUTE... how thoughtful.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:46 pm

brute is just the voice of reason.. the boy next door.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by m741 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:19 am

Latest news - Bannon added to National Security council. Joint Chiefs will attend 'as needed.' Start with the immigration order and wall, then do the fun stuff while people are distracted.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38787241

I'm guessing there's some terror attack in the US within the next 6 months that's used as a Reichstag Fire incident.

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Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:55 am

ffj wrote:@Chad
The mood will be dependent on job and wealth creation and national security. Two areas Trump is heavily focusing on and if he is even mildly successful in these areas than it would be hard to beat him if he ran again. I don't believe anybody will be losing any fundamental rights.
Yes, there will be more things to judge him on.

If he does what he says he is going to do concerning economic policies, and based on everything so far those that said not to take him literally are wrong, he will prop up the economy/market a little for about 1-2 years, probably closer to 2. But, his policies are short-term and late in the cycle, so it's unlikely they will have a big long-term impact.

The White House is now suggesting late 2017 to 2018 for tax reform. This may change my mind on when a pullback occurs. I'm starting to think it's sooner rather than later, as the current market needs those new tax laws to maintain this level.

I don't normally agree with Krugman, as he is very biased. However, he gets how it's rather impossible to save manufacturing jobs:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/o ... 0&referer=

There are also issues with his infrastructure plan if he does what he says he is going to do:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver ... pay-you-go

Concerning national security, I don't see his policies making the US safer/stronger. Some may think so, but those are the same people that cower from nothing and always want to start a war with someone (Everyone who supported starting the Iraq War should have that entered in their permanent record.).

His ridiculous ban on Friday created a great recruiting tool for Muslim extremists. Makes it much easier to say there is a war on Islam, while banning people from countries that have proven to present a very minor threat. Trump could have made this order a lot better if he had just acted like a President instead of a dictator. His word is not law (I'm giving to the ACLU for the first time, because of this.).
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... 1-countri/

Then his unbelievable idiotic move of removing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and then he added in the most questionable guy in the White House, his propaganda master Bannon. It would be like taking Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off the Patriots before the season began. Why would anyone do that unless you are a moron or a child?

And, the wall won't stop anyone. There is already a wall along a little more than a 1/3rd of the border and natural barriers along other parts. It doesn't really stop anyone who really wants to get in and based on recent studies roughly the same number are leaving as coming over the last 4-5 years. So, billions for no gain, whatsoever. Though, the wall will probably appease the egos of many of his supporters.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by scriptbunny » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:51 am

m741 wrote:I'm guessing there's some terror attack in the US within the next 6 months that's used as a Reichstag Fire incident.
This is my biggest fear at this point (other than, well, pending nuclear disaster or global warming, but who's counting).
Chad wrote:If he does what he says he is going to do concerning economic policies, and based on everything so far those that said not to take him literally are wrong, he will prop up the economy/market a little for about 1-2 years, probably closer to 2. But, his policies are short-term and late in the cycle, so it's unlikely they will have a big long-term impact.

The White House is now suggesting late 2016 to 2017 for tax reform. This may change my mind on when a pullback occurs. I'm starting to think it's sooner rather than later, as the current market needs those new tax laws to maintain this level.
Do you really think it'll be so short-lived? If Congressional Republicans do manage to lower corporate taxes, I could see the boost of capital repatriation making them and Trump look good for a few years (through 2020 at least).

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:50 am

scriptbunny wrote: Do you really think it'll be so short-lived? If Congressional Republicans do manage to lower corporate taxes, I could see the boost of capital repatriation making them and Trump look good for a few years (through 2020 at least).
I do. The two big variables in determining a country's growth rate are population growth and productivity increases. Population growth will probably fall slightly with the new policies and just bringing that money back isn't necessarily a long-term positive unless those companies invest it in productivity. If they just do dividends or share buybacks it will definitely be short term.

Also, a lot of them might not bring as much back as they once would have considering the current environment with Trump's White House. At least 1/5th of the total is from tech companies and they might be scared they won't be able to recruit enough engineers to the US after last Friday and probable future foolishness. This uncertainty will be an economic negative if allowed to go too long.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:02 pm

@Chad -- I agree with everything you said. But did you mean 2017/2018 for tax reform?

With today's vague EO about "reducing regulations", its become abundantly clear that he's literally taking his campaign checklist/promise list and writing up a series of orders that he can then use for photo-ops, whether or not these ideas are legal and/or make any sense. Some of them will be contradictory if he keeps going.

There is a site here (I think by the y-combinator guy) that is trying to keep track: http://www.track-trump.com/

What he doesn't seem to understand, or maybe does and doesn't care, is that executive orders are limited by statutes and the Constitution. So what you are going to end up with it a bunch of lawsuits as they try to implement them like what we saw over the weekend. In fact, in the best-case scenario, the entire government may become bogged down -- judges just don't work that quickly. In the worst case scenario, we'll end up with a Constitutional crises and a potential for a lot of civil unrest.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:32 pm

@Dragline

I'm going with what I heard on Bloomberg, which said the source was a White House official. I missed who. They were saying the tax reform bill would be created in late 2017 or into 2018, and one would assume passed with a Republican Congress. They were not entirely clear on the year the bill would institute the reform. 2017? 2018? 2019? I was assuming, given the time frame, they would implement it at earliest for 2017, but who knows with the way they are doing things. They don't seem to care about uncertainty, so changing the tax law for 2016 on New Year's eve seems plausible. Though, I don't know if there are laws preventing something like that.

They definitely seem to be doing the list thing, which probably plays out like you noted.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:36 pm

But 2016 is over and its already 2017. Did they really say it was going to happen last year?

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:39 pm

No. Sorry I might be unclear. They didn't mention anything about the year it would apply to. Just when they would introduce the bill. My 2016 mention is still the leftover muscle memory from 2016. I will correct my statement.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Felipe » Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:44 pm

Considering that the US stock market makes up near half of the global stock market, I don't think people are distressed enough for another Reichstag Fire incident. There's already huge resistance movements to his actions that seem more dictator like than president like.

That said, how do we stop a Reichstag Fire type event from turning into full on fascism?

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor » Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:47 pm

Felipe wrote:That said, how do we stop a Reichstag Fire type event from turning into full on fascism?
I think he would be impeached before he goes full blown Stalin. I'm hoping there are still constitutional patriots in government who would push impeachment and removal or refuse to carry out an unconstitutional order. After all doesn't everyone take an oath to defend The Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic, when they are sworn into office, join the military, or become US Citizens? Oddly, as far as I know, the only people who don't need to swear an oath to The Constitution are natural born citizens who remain civilians and don't hold any public office.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:47 pm

@Chad
We'll have to wait and see about the economy and the rust belt and the like. Some of this stuff is going to have to be played out before an honest assessment can be had.

I would say a greater recruiting tool for extremist Muslims would be the bombing campaigns by our government that occur in those countries. Watch this and ask yourself why suddenly it is a huge issue for you now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FTFB9GDfls
If you think this is a Muslim ban then you aren't really being honest with yourself, and all of this talk by Schumer and others is capitulation. We should as a nation never have to apologize for taking steps to protect this country. We can argue the effectiveness of these measures, but the day we ask permission from other countries to protect ourselves is hopefully over.

Also, dictator is a strong word. The question should be whether he is violating the Constitution and denying citizens their constitutional rights. Even though he is being challenged by a couple of courts, I'm pretty sure everything he has done has been within the law and within his purview. I don't remember anyone having a problem with Obama in 2011: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA-QfhirlRg

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:14 pm

You have a faulty memory, I'm afraid -- the situation in 2011 was different and was done in response to Congress, where this was actually discussed between Senators and administration officials.

"So what's the difference with Trump's action?

First, Obama responded to an actual threat -- the discovery that two Iraqi refugees has been implicated in bomb-making in Iraq that had targeted U.S. troops. Under congressional pressure, officials decided to re-examine all previous refugees and also impose new screening procedures, which led to a slowdown in processing new applications. Trump, by contrast, issued his executive order without any known triggering threat.

Second, Obama did not announce there was a ban on visa applications. In fact, as seen in Napolitano's answer to Collins, administration officials danced around that question. There was certainly a lot of news reporting that visa applications had been slowed to a trickle. But the Obama administration never said it was their policy to halt all applications. Even so, the delays did not go unnoticed, so there was a lot of critical news reporting at the time about the angst of Iraqis waiting for approval.

Third, Obama's policy did not prevent all citizens of that country, including green card holders, from traveling the United States. Trump's policy is much more sweeping."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... story.html

There was no threat and no purpose to Trump's order other than a glaring dictatorial -- yes, a highly accurate word -- power grab and placating irrational supporters who probably have never even spoken to a Muslim, are in more danger from their neighbors and coworkers, and should be more concerned with people like Dylan Roof, the nazi guy in Quebec and whomever just burned down the two mosques in Texas.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by RealPerson » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:40 pm

I suspect that building the wall, leaving the free trade agreement and now the travel ban on the citizens of 7 countries are mostly theater. It is showing that "we haven't forgotten our election promises and are standing up for the little guy". If the courts strike down his executive orders, that makes it even better. "See...I tried but these out of control judges are just loose canons". Trump is no dummy and he knows television well. Most voters don't care about advice from DOJ lawyers etc. That is stuff lawyers care about (sorry Dragline). The voters who elected Trump will just see activist judges hell bent on pursuing a liberal agenda. It think it is the first stage in setting up the reelection campaign for Trump and force cooperation from vulnerable Democratic senators having to run in 2018, so he can get his agenda passed without 60 votes.

People always underestimate Trump (see the election for exhibit A).

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia, where a lot of the 9/11 guys came from, is NOT on the list. I don't believe that was an oversight.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by m741 » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:23 am

Since this thread is mostly theorizing at this point, I think this article describing how the current situation is getting ducks in a row for a coup is interesting. IMO it's overall accurate with respect to intent, but that the actual consolidation of power will be a bit slower and more subtle (using noisy executive orders to distract in the meantime). Curious to hear other's thoughts.

https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial ... .fh2jxk9o5

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:00 am

That article on medium is scarily logical. At the very least, he is correct on them consolidating power into that select group and trying to avoid the natural checks and balances put in place within the various government departments.

If you want some more scary insight follow Timur Kuran on Twitter (@timurkuran). He is a Duke professor from Turkey who has followed Erdogan's rise from positive reformist President to dictator. So many of the moves between the two leaders are eerily similar.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:32 am

ffj wrote:@Chad
We'll have to wait and see about the economy and the rust belt and the like. Some of this stuff is going to have to be played out before an honest assessment can be had.
You can wait, but the money will be made and lost by then.
ffj wrote: I would say a greater recruiting tool for extremist Muslims would be the bombing campaigns by our government that occur in those countries. Watch this and ask yourself why suddenly it is a huge issue for you now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FTFB9GDfls
Absolutely, I have said in the past how the bombing's are a very poor short-term solution for a long-term problem. It's my whole soft power argument. Definitely one of my complaints with Obama.

Also, be wary of those video talk shows. It's much easier to hide BS in those than in the written word.
ffj wrote: If you think this is a Muslim ban then you aren't really being honest with yourself, and all of this talk by Schumer and others is capitulation.
I don't believe I have ever said this was a muslim ban or mentioned a famous person. Not sure why you brought this up in a conversation with me. My whole point is the miss assessment of risk.
ffj wrote: We should as a nation never have to apologize for taking steps to protect this country. We can argue the effectiveness of these measures, but the day we ask permission from other countries to protect ourselves is hopefully over.
No we shouldn't, but this doesn't protect us at all. In fact, it hurts us long-term, which I have explained ad nauseam on here. Same as I did before the Iraq War started. Though, obviously not here, as it didn't exist.

Also, this is like my grandma who is scared to go into the city because she sees a murder on the local news. She doesn't judge risk properly.
ffj wrote: Also, dictator is a strong word. The question should be whether he is violating the Constitution and denying citizens their constitutional rights. Even though he is being challenged by a couple of courts, I'm pretty sure everything he has done has been within the law and within his purview. I don't remember anyone having a problem with Obama in 2011: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA-QfhirlRg
It is a strong word, I used it on purpose, and it's over the top. He isn't a dictator, but his actions are not promising. The State Department purge, his isolation of the intelligence agencies and military, him weirdly befriending Comey and almost no other current senior official, etc. The list is Yuge.

It's not the use of executive orders as it is the complete disregard for even trying to keep them within the Constitution and the bad policies. That's the difference between the two.

Also, I'm not watching anymore videos. If you want to support your point that's very welcome, but I'm only reading articles from now on. Videos take forever and, as I noted earlier, are easier to BS than the written word.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:50 am

If you want some more scary insight follow Timur Kuran on Twitter (@timurkuran). He is a Duke professor from Turkey who has followed Erdogan's rise from positive reformist President to dictator. So many of the moves between the two leaders are eerily similar.
Trump and Chavez also have been described as using the same tactics: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... milarities

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Papers of Indenture » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:58 am

m741 wrote:Since this thread is mostly theorizing at this point, I think this article describing how the current situation is getting ducks in a row for a coup is interesting. IMO it's overall accurate with respect to intent, but that the actual consolidation of power will be a bit slower and more subtle (using noisy executive orders to distract in the meantime). Curious to hear other's thoughts.

https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial ... .fh2jxk9o5
Uh. So you think a discussion of a coup might have covered...you know...the military. I'm sure Mattis (the establishment agent in the admin and arguably the most popular figure among rank and file officers in decades) and every O-6+ would have no impact on this.

I'm as wary of Bannon and his goon crew as anyone but this article is no better than the masturbatory Kek magic of the alt right.
Last edited by Papers of Indenture on Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Papers of Indenture » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:10 am

I need to re-iterate that I do not trust Bannon and Miller. I'm well aware that Bannon is essentially a self styled chaos magician with access to the levers of global politics. I think this is basically correct:
First, the decision to first block, and then allow, green card holders was meant to create chaos and pull out opposition; they never intended to hold it for too long. It wouldn’t surprise me if the goal is to create “resistance fatigue,” to get Americans to the point where they’re more likely to say “Oh, another protest? Don’t you guys ever stop?” relatively quickly.
and this:
That is to say, the administration is testing the extent to which the DHS (and other executive agencies) can act and ignore orders from the other branches of government.
But to go from there to this is a coup is only playing into the hands of their strategy in my opinion

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:03 pm

@Dragline

One of the problems with language is that when words are consistently misused they lose their meaning. That is why being called a whatever -ist doesn't pack a punch anymore. Again, the question should be whether he is violating the Constitution or citizens constitutional rights. I agree he is totally without tact and my fear is that a leftist organization will retaliate with violence in response. And that is an interesting angle to me, that he may lesson our risk to outside terrorism but increase the probability of domestic terrorism. It's speculation on my part though.

Those countries were placed on a watch list from the Obama administration for a reason and there is a time limit to Trump's travel ban, which is half as long as Obama's ban. I suspect he is using this as an opportunity to review and tighten vetting procedures, just as he promised during his campaign.

As far as his "irrational" supporters, that's a pretty rich statement after witnessing the absolute melt-down of his detractors. It's embarrassing how some of these people have tossed all reason out the door. I'm not saying there aren't kooks out there that support Trump, there are, but holy fuck has this country lost its collective mind.

@Chad

My point is that we are going to have to see how things play out, which will confirm or deny our speculation on the outcomes. The last president doubled our national debt in eight years, with marginal gains in employment and GDP. So Trump realistically has a fairly low bar to jump to look better than Obama. I would say he is poised to look pretty good on the economic front.

I want to emphasize how much worse it is to drone strike(kill) people versus not letting them enter our country for a short period of time. Logically, the people protesting at our airports and the like should have been doing this after our Nobel Peace Prize winning president was ordering the killing of people in the very countries Trump has denied entry. This isn't an argument over whether he was justified or not, this is to point out that these protesters are protesting Trump, and not the issue at hand.

Apologies on the muslim ban angle. I must of gotten confused. I understand about the video gripe, much of it is sensational but I thought this guy did a good job of pointing out the hypocrisy.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by George the original one » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:06 pm

Papers of Indenture wrote:Uh. So you think a discussion of a coup might have covered...you know...the military.
DHS not following court orders? They're not exactly military, but they do have guns and authority and 45k employees.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:19 pm

Since it's still #1 on the amazon bestseller list (one week later), I figured it would be appropriate to quote something that I think is relevant that I've seen in the general/social/media "debate" over the weekend. It also applies in a general sense wrt the genius of understanding and manipulating clowns.
1984 wrote:The first and simplest stage in the discipline, which can be taught even to young children, is called, in Newspeak, CRIMESTOP. CRIMESTOP means the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought. It includes the power of not grasping analogies, of failing to perceive logical errors, of misunderstanding the simplest arguments if they are inimical to Ingsoc, and of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. CRIMESTOP, in short, means protective stupidity... orthodoxy in the full sense demands a control over one's own mental processes as complete as that of a contortionist over his body.
Sound familiar?

And later on ...
1984 wrote:[Winston] set to work to exercise himself in crimestop. He presented himself with propositions--'the Party says the earth is flat', 'the party says that ice is heavier than water'--and trained himself in not seeing or not understanding the arguments that contradicted them. It was not easy. It needed great powers of reasoning and improvisation.
But that book was written ~70 years ago ... whereas today one does not need to perform mental contortion oneself to engage in crimestop. The internet makes it easy to remain dumb and just google and share prefabricated memes or slogans that work just as well.

I think what we've seen over the weekend just confirms how much "crimestop"-mentality (clown) now dominates. Field research indicates that a majority can't even find the banned countries on a map much less know any background or why these countries are on this or that list. I bet most think visa refers to their credit card and that the Visa Waiver Program refers to how one can pay for groceries without having to enter a pin code.

List of crimestop arguments I noticed on social/media until my brain developed an acute case of hypoxia:

[This is an anti-muslim ban.] Sure all countries on the list are majority Muslim, and yes, Rudy Giuliani has admitted as much. That Trump made a statement about favoring Christians doesn't help. However, there are plenty of other majority Muslim countries that did not make it to the list. Of course in the simplistic clown-optic, many will see this as anti-Muslim and thus play into the terrorist recruitment narrative and possibly increase domestic terrorism which has always (except 9/11) been the biggest source factor of US terrorism. See below ...

[This is to protect us from terrorism.] Another meme list is circulating indicating that 1) Of the seven banned countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Yemen), none of them has actually contributed to any terrorist-based killings (this is a fact, but see (*) below). 2) The ones that actually have caused deaths: 9/11 (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE), Boston Marathon (Russia), Charleston Church (US born citizen), Chattanooga (Kuwaiti-born US citizen), San Bernadino (US born citizen with Pakistani parents), Orlando (US born citizen, Afghani parents), Ft. Lauderdale (US) are NOT on the list ... and Trump has businesses in [many of] the latter ones.

If you look at the ban list ... you'll find countries that the US either has had an oppositional relationship with either for decades (going back to the cold war) because they sided with the Soviet Union (Sudan, Somalia) and/or because they were anti-Israel (Iran) or cheered for Iraq (Yemen) or they are countries that the US has recently droned, bombed, or otherwise tried to destabilize (Iraq, Libya, Syria) but over the past few years have a positive relationship with the government (but maybe not the people who were living in an anti-US country until recently.)

And if you look at the allied or terror-incident list ... you'll find countries that are either military dictatorships, absolute monarchies, or heading in that direction. The US has a rich history of being rather pragmatic in that regard. The enemy of our enemy is our friend regardless of how nice or above-the-board our expedient friend is.

How would I explain the difference?
  • If your country is trying to overthrow an oppressive government in some other country and people flee in your direction, I think odds are good that the refugees are running your way because they like you. This explains why there haven't been any successful(*) terrorist attacks from countries on the banned list.
  • If your country supports an oppressive government in some other country, it's not unsurprising that the people of that country aside from hating their own government will also start hating your government. This explains why all the terrorist attacks come from these countries.
So in effect ... this ban does nothing to protect us from terrorism. If the goal was to prevent terrorism, then on top of vetting any immigrants from the countries the US intervenes in ... also vet immigrants from countries the US supports that relate to various small wars or ongoing insurgency. And if you want to be really sure, look at domestic sources as well (see below).

Yes, Trump probably has businesses in countries that sourced terrorists, and you, yes you, probably do too if you own stock in transnational companies. Most of the countries from which people committed acts of terrorism are US allies. So it's an asinine argument that the terrorist-sourcing countries are not on the list because of Trump's personal business interests.

[Look at Europe and their problems with refugees. We don't want that in the US] Fair point ... but it just looks bad to officially go out and refuse to clean up the mess that one has generated over the past 2-50 years (Republican and Democrat administrations alike) in the interest of opposing the Soviets, helping Israel, or stabilizing the oil price.

What this actually is ... is a refugee ban. It's just, we can't call it that w/o looking like jerks to most humans. Taking at least some responsibility of the consequences of one's actions is a fairly universal human value. "If you break it, you buy it."

[But Obama created the list] Yes, but he didn't use it to ban/clobber immigrants or previously approved visa holders. There are two policies here. In 2011, the fingerprints of two Iraqis on SIV (from aiding the US military in Iraq) living in Bowling Green, KY were matched to finger prints found on IEDs. This caused a revision of the SIV(+) vetting policy which slowed it down but didn't stop it. In 2015, the list of seven was excluded from the Visa Waiver program. This means that instead of doing ESTA and filling out those papers in the airplane, these countries now had to obtain a normal visa first.

(+) That's just one particular visa program. As far as I know this just slowed the processing down. It did not affect green card holders, researchers, etc.

[So why aren't people outraged when Obama did it too] While Obama's order meant that people had to obtain a visa first, the Trump order outright canceled all visas retroactively. This meant that people with green cards, student, research, professional, etc. visas were suddenly prevented from entering the country. This caused a great spectacle in the airports. Obviously, if visas can be taken away while someone is on the plane, it's a risk both to the people living here and the companies and universities that employ these people. In terms of long-term damage to the US economy, people now have to decide whether it's worth it to go do research or take a specialist job in the US ... insofar you effectively could risk being prevented from coming back to your job, house, family, etc. if you go on a vacation, business trip, conference, etc. As a green card holder, even I consider this a risk now ... how can I be sure that a new order doesn't ban people for other reasons overnight (for writing a post like this, for example) at some point in the future.

[But it only affected 1% of travelers so who cares?] Obviously not anyone who has never left their home state and doesn't plan on it either for the far future. But I've seen articles both from the business and the research community on how to handle this new risk. Google recalled all their employees (don't leave the country). Everybody in the research community will likely know a co-worker who's affected. Here's the message this order sent to the entire international research community: If you come to the US to do research, it's in your best interest not to leave once you get in. Therefore, you can't go to the usual 2-6 conferences you normally be expected to attend annually; this in turn will probably sink your future career prospects, so maybe consider other options if you have them. Ditto specialist workers and students. These professionals are not oblivious; they're highly mobile; and they're able to connect enough dots to wonder if they're the next ones to get thrown under the bus and if their career risk is worth it.

(*)[But a couple of these countries did have terrorist immigrants] Fair point. But notice how they were all caught before they managed to do anything. The vetting process is already pretty extensive. Notice that actual terrorism is either from US allies or it's homegrown either inspired by social media+foreign policy actions (e.g. US born with family ties back to a state where the US is dropping bombs or allied with an oppressive government or simply based on religion) or it's in places where the government for some reason doesn't seem to look, e.g. white supremacists (Charleston) and anti-government (police assassinations); and that's not because these terrorists are particularly clever and refrain from bragging about their nefarious plans on social media. It's rather that the government doesn't run similar vetting for these homegrown terrorists.

However, good luck in trying to make this point with anyone who has mastered "crimestop" (see first quote) or its modern equivalent of "memeshare". I've generally given up in disgust/futility trying to engage with people who are in the habit or making their point with memes or overly simplified talking points. The geopolitical reality is completely out of whack with the ongoing partisan sportsball-inspired "debate". I feel like another Wheaton table is coming up. I'm wondering if anyone has any success stories in terms of unclowning any clowns?

I don't really care to debate any of the above points. What I'm more interested is is the almost complete lack of analysis anywhere. I wrote this post because I haven't seen a summary like I put together here ANYWHERE else. I find it fundamentally disturbing that the focus everywhere has moved from "lets analyze the why and the where of what's going on" to "look at the genius ways the clown demographic is strategically being manipulated". It's a sad thing to watch in a democracy.

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