Trump - Clown Genius

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Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

jennypenny wrote:
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:59 am

But virtually any other GOP candidate would probably have lost to Clinton because the base wouldn't have turned out like it did in key states. That is/was the crux of the dilemma for Republicans. Lose, or win with a loser.
I don't think that was the case. Kasich or Cruz (last standing) could have won more easily than Trump, given the anti-Clinton sentiment. There was nothing special about Trump in the end other than he was not Clinton.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

Cruz? I can see Kasich, but Cruz doesn't seem to be well liked outside of the base. Of course, that could be my bias coming through, as I view Cruz as evil and Kasich as just another politician. I would have been happy to have Kasich as the Republican nominee from that poor field.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Cruz would have done well in FL and NC, but not MI, PA or WI. Those five were probably the only states that it mattered.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

black_son_of_gray wrote:
Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:27 pm
"A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses." -Cipolla
great example of how a definition of "intelligent/stupid" becomes useless and clearly inapplicable as soon as it is actually written down. it's not "wrong", in the sense that definitions can't be "wrong". it certainly seems unintuitive, as far as brute has seen humans use the word "stupid". it also doesn't seem very valuable, and extremely subjective - how would black_son_of_gray know that Trump doesn't derive any subjective marginal gains from his activities? Trump seems to derive marginal gains from tweeting on the shitter at 3 am, it would seem absurd to proclaim he cannot possibly derive gains from all the other stuff he does.

Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

How do you think these headlines in these outlets (e.g. foxnews or msnbc) would be today in an alternate universe where Hillary Clinton had won the election---presuming the same rate of alligators, serial killers, and naked school teachers---if it had been discovered that Chelsea Clinton had attended a meeting with a lawyer acting for the Chinese government claiming to have damaging information on Trump they were willing to share in support of the campaign against Trump; if emails confirmed that Bill Clinton and John Podesta were aware of this offer. If the National Security Advisor had been found to work with China to find Trump's tax returns. If that person and several people in the Clinton administration had not disclosed several meetings with Chinese government officials when filing for their security clearances. If HRC during the campaign had stood up encouraging those Chinese hackers to go digging. If those tax returns had subsequently been released via wikileaks. (Borrowing this exercise from https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ng-clinton)
It would probably be the same. Each news outlet would frame the story as "no big deal" or "it's a catastrophe" depending on their bias similar to the news coverage during the Bill Clinton presidency when he appointed First Lady Hillary Clinton to chair healthcare reform. For the record I'm against appointing family members to cabinet/diplomatic/advisory positions without congressional approval/vetting.
That being said, Trump isn't entirely stupid. The constellation of his actions as president* have regularly landed in the "Stupid" square, but that doesn't mean that every action is stupid, and that doesn't preclude him from being intelligent in other domains. Indeed, a very rare individual who has a distribution of actions along the stupid<->intelligent axis (or is at least perceived that way by others) will come off as a "clown genius", quite similarly to an individual with savant syndrome. One might argue that Trump is highly gifted at selling, and stunted in many other domains.

A related concern is that he seems to have surrounded himself with many Stupid or Bandit types (a hefty chunk of his cabinet and advisors).
His constant tweeting is generating a steady stream of controversy that will drown out any honest and intelligent criticism/analysis and mentally exhaust any focused attention the general public may have. All presidents (left and right) do this to some degree although Trump has taken it to a whole new level. By circumventing the mainstream media, he's getting his messaging and branding unfiltered to his base and the swing voters. And he's getting free advertisement by doing so. If you were to distill Trump's consistent message it would be "fake news" as reported by ALL news outlets. From a psychological perspective, he is drilling the "fake news" meme into everyone's subconscious to allow him to "gas light" the general public when needed. Trump operated in the real estate and casino world and built a fortune and brand within an industry known for cronyism, political chicanery, and quid pro quo deals. That he has a bandit type of administration shouldn't be a surprise since every administration does this to a lesser or equal degree - it's only magnified more now because the news organizations are in a battle of credibility against Trump who isn't afraid to get openly dirty. And can anyone say "fake news" anymore without hearing Trump's voice in their head?
great example of how a definition of "intelligent/stupid" becomes useless and clearly inapplicable as soon as it is actually written down. it's not "wrong", in the sense that definitions can't be "wrong". it certainly seems unintuitive, as far as brute has seen humans use the word "stupid". it also doesn't seem very valuable, and extremely subjective - how would black_son_of_gray know that Trump doesn't derive any subjective marginal gains from his activities? Trump seems to derive marginal gains from tweeting on the shitter at 3 am, it would seem absurd to proclaim he cannot possibly derive gains from all the other stuff he does.
I couldn't agree more especially in regards to his tweeting. Not only is he pushing his "fake news" meme consistently, but the media also thumping "Trump" into our heads constantly where I see the general public growing tolerant of Trump - kind of like the people who walk past moose and bears because they see them so often that they are no longer wary of being harmed.

Miss Lonelyhearts
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Miss Lonelyhearts »

Much of what Trump does is not in his self interest. You may be right that he is pursuing a strategy of deceiving or befuddling the general public in order to gain cover for, e.g., personal enrichment through greater hotel revenue, development opportunities, etc. although I still think that's unlikely. But even if so, tweets like "covfefe," allegations of widespread voter fraud, or the suggestion to set up a cyber security operation with Kremlin assistance all work against him, especially since some will offer cover to fellow Republicans who will turn on him when impeachment is being debated. Consider voter fraud: Kris Kobach*, an earnest and potentially useful ally, is given a FUBAR mission to investigate nonexistent voter fraud, and finds himself publicly rebuffed by dozens of GOP officials. Who benefits? A would be lieutenant is humiliated and his political capital lessened, Trump himself comes in for another round of scorn, much of it from his own party, and some fraction of legitimate bully pulpit time is wasted on nonsense. Recall the repeated admonition of McConnell, a legit student of the dark arts, to Trump during the campaign: stay on message!

The argument that Presidents don't have much power is only true in relation to mid-twentieth century US Presidents. Obama made a version of this argument to David Remnick as a defense against his leftist critics; culturally and economically it has some validity (but again only when compared to someone like FDR or JFK), but militarily - in terms of hard power - it's dead wrong. The US President controls more literal power - the ability to unleash energy per unit time - than anyone else in human history, courtesy of the US nuclear arsenal. Political power over the agencies that regulate things like offshore drilling, and the ability to (dis)engage from agreements like the Paris accord are also forms of literal power granted to the President. The power to reshape the judiciary in widely understood as one of the main benefits of controlling the Presidency, but as we've already seen having appointment control of the FBI, CIA, EPA, DoE, and every agency on this list is also enormously consequential. That Trump hasn't started a nuclear war or other military misadventure does not make him immune from doing so.

*Pence was on that detail too, but smart enough to stay out of it

Miss Lonelyhearts
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Miss Lonelyhearts »

@Campitor re "general public growing tolerant"- see Dragline's RealClearPolitics link above or consider https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

It's something to look out for but the trend seems to be people growing less tolerant, not more.

Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

Miss Lonelyhearts wrote:
Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:10 am
@Campitor re "general public growing tolerant"- see Dragline's RealClearPolitics link above or consider https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

It's something to look out for but the trend seems to be people growing less tolerant, not more.
The data at that link shows that Trump had the same approval rating as Bill Clinton on day 128, 136, 155. On day 133 to 138, Bill Clinton had a lower approval rating than Donald Trump. Day 177, the difference is only at -6.6% for Trump. All this to say that Trump may be low now but what counts is his approval ratings going into the end of his 1st term and who the democrats choose to run against him in 2020.

That same website had a political chat: Are Trump And The Media Enemies Or Frenemies? Some quotes from this chat:

"What’s fascinating about the adversarial attitude toward the media that Trump is fostering in his supporters is their view toward seeing any and everything that is produced by certain media organizations as being toxic — when NPR tweeted out the Declaration of Independence on the Fourth and people thought it was an anti-Trump screed, for instance."

" the idea that Trump is starting a media fight at a time when his party is pushing a particularly unpopular bill is striking. It’s a classic Trump move of distraction."

"I think we have to separate a couple of things out: Trump sees hating on the media as a useful tool to gin up support from his base, to try to control a narrative. The media isn’t so much out to get Trump as to save itself from immolation during the Trump era when trust in the institution of the press is taking a nosedive."

Miss Lonelyhearts
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Miss Lonelyhearts »

His net approval rating (=%approve - %disapprove) has so far always been lower than Clinton's, or any other President in the data set's, at the comparable date, and right now it's near its all time low. (To be fair Clinton briefly comes close in this metric too but rebounds.) Even ignoring the net numbers, consider that the 6.6% difference you cited represents over 20 million people in 2017 population. But yes, the 2018 and 2020 elections will give us a more definitive look at whether this strategy succeeded.

bryan
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

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BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »


Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

Miss Lonelyhearts wrote:
Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:00 am
His net approval rating (=%approve - %disapprove) has so far always been lower than Clinton's, or any other President in the data set's, at the comparable date, and right now it's near its all time low. (To be fair Clinton briefly comes close in this metric too but rebounds.) Even ignoring the net numbers, consider that the 6.6% difference you cited represents over 20 million people in 2017 population. But yes, the 2018 and 2020 elections will give us a more definitive look at whether this strategy succeeded.
The representation of 20 million is questionable since I highly doubt 330 million people were polled. This election proved that poll numbers can be deceiving. I'm no Trump fan - I didn't vote for the guy but he has an agenda that is being masked by his artificially generated controversies.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

You know he is feeling the pain and attempting to lower his own bar when he tweets about it:

"The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not bad at this time, was just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!"

black_son_of_gray
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by black_son_of_gray »

A timely podcast discussion (recorded about a week ago? so covering the most recent events) between Sam Harris and Scott Adams about Trump and the Master Persuader lens:
https://soundcloud.com/samharrisorg/87-triggered
Both make pretty good points here and there. I'm not sure I've ever heard Sam Harris get so obviously worked up on a topic. "Triggered" is a good title in that respect.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

That was interesting. I don't like either one of those guys and they are essentially the same -- they are mimetic rivals whose whole schtick is to present themselves as "the most reasonable man ever", when they are just classic sophists with agendas and stories to back them up. They do a lot of talking past each other with their own constructions.

"Emotional truth" strikes me as complete bullshit, though. It really just means "good at propaganda/marketing" if you've ever read Bernays book on the topic. Harris wasn't listening very well and did not ask very good questions in favor of making his own speeches.

Adams is correct about the two movies analogy, although that existed long before Trump ran for president. But getting things done? Winning big? All it takes for a good economy is good psychology? (Sounds like "The Secret".) Again, Harris did not challenge him on those statements. Instead, Adams challenged Harris on his counter-statements.

Adams won the "reasonable sophist" competition. He dodges questions with irrelevant analogies and stories or speculations, and then attacks Harris for using analogies and speculations and Harris doesn't call him on it, or not very well. The only real question is who was more pompous. I am reminded why I don't listen to either of these guys very often. They think the point of arguing is just arguing for a fan base. They would be watching separate movies even outside this topic. But the end of both of their movies is misery.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@ Dragline - I agree largely with your impressions... but what do you mean by "but the end of both of their movies is misery"? And considering Harris and Adams are watching two separate movies, just as the nation itself appears to be, does that imply misery for both movies at the national level? If you have to watch the movie, how can you avoid or minimize misery?

The two movies analogy suggests that the way to think of Trump as a Clown Genius isn't that he is both, but that half the population sees him as a Clown, the other as a Genius. The wave-particle duality of Trump, if you will...

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

I was speaking about their approaches to interacting with others, not about Trump per se -- that's why I said "outside this topic". In my experience, people who argue for the sake of argument and then create grand conspiracy theories in their head to accommodate inconvenient facts end up old, grumpy and miserable in the end, largely because other people can't stand to deal with them and their obsessions and stories.

Adams is already divorced after a short marriage and claims to be a target of assassination. Harris is similarly fixated on his personal security. I think they fundamentally live in fear and that is what drives them, partially manifested in their insistence on "always being right." They are both very similarly neurotic. You can imagine a hell where they are trapped with each other making up stories about each other's motives.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

A colleague in the DC press emailed me this morning and said of all the things Trump has done to surprise her, managing to stir up sympathy for Jeff Sessions in the press pool might be the biggest surprise yet.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

That's funny. You have to feel for most of Trump's appointees, though I'm not there yet with Sessions. These are extremely difficult jobs and Trump makes them even more so.

I can't believe Jon Huntsman accepted the ambassadorship for Russia. A shame really, as he will probably get tarred with the whole Russian mess and have his reputation ruined. I actually like him.
Last edited by Chad on Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

There appears to be a lot of space under the Trump bus to throw people.

Sometimes I wonder if Trump isn't selling subscriptions to the New York Times or something given how many juicy exclusive stories he hands them.

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