The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Campitor
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by Campitor »

@bigato

No one is asking anyone to grow taller but since this is a thread about UBI, we're arguing that some people don't need to be taller - they are tall enough. To co-opt the analogy of "shortness" imagine there exists the country of Heightopia. In Heightopia there is a 10ft fence that has to be climbed to reach a country where everyone lives a better life - this country is called MoneyUpTheWazzoo.

The only way to get over the fence is by stacking boxes until you can get over it. Climbing over the fence consumes the box (just like 12k UBI would get consumed when spent). The tall people can pull themselves over the 10ft fence without the box but using the box makes it easier. The short people can't climb over the fence using just 1 box.

MoneyUpTheWazoo already has a bunch of people living there; some are short and some are tall. Some MoneyUpTheWazzo people, including some who are short, want to give only short Heightopians boxes.

Some of the MoneyUpTheWazoo people, including some who are tall, want to give all Heightopians and MoneyUpTheWazzooans boxes to climb the fence which baffles some of the people in MoneyUpTheWazzoo since they are already there.

There's only enough money and wood in MoneyUpTheWazzoo to build 1 box per person if they are distributed to everyone. Most of the short Heightopia people can't climb the fence to reach MoneyUpTheWazzoo with only 1 box. Most of the tall Heightopia people can reach MoneyUpTheWazzoo without a box.

I'm arguing that we shouldn't be giving boxes to tall Heightopians because they don't need it, we shouldn't be giving boxes to MoneyUpTheWazzooans because they don't need it, and we should only be giving it to short Heightopians who want to climb the fence. I don't want to waste the boxes because I know no more boxes are coming once the wood and money are gone. And I also want to teach Heightopians how to grow their own wood and save/pool money so they can build their own boxes and pass the knowledge down to future generations so they can all reach MoneyUpTheWazzoo. You seem to want to give everyone, short and tall on both sides of the fence, 1 box.

Campitor
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by Campitor »

@bigato

That's a interesting thread - thanks for posting it. Some of my favorites quotes from that thread:
capital is exponentially more portable than labor. With globalization, capital in the form of investments can move wherever it needs to to grow, it's borderless. Labor however, in order to grow wealth has to physically move. Remote jobs for basic labor doesn't exist - that's almost exclusively knowledge work.

So if you're a coal miner, your ability to create wealth is extremely limited to certain physical places. If you're a remote Java dev, you can code from anywhere and grow wealth much easier, but there is a serious time cost to switching work. If you're an investor and just need to drop money into an account, not only can you do it from anywhere, you can move things around more or less immediately with little (relative) cost.

It's about portability of the thing that is growing the wealth. Labor = slow, Capital = fast.
and
Even things that are true are often reported in a way that obscures causal factors. For example, wages are stagnating, but total compensation (wages plus benefits) is not. Now, from an employee’s perspective, they might not care that their total compensation is growing because health insurance premiums are increasing but paychecks are staying the same size. But the employer has the exact opposite perspective: the employee is costing more money whether that money is going to to paychecks or benefits. Failure to articulate that distinction moreover leads you to the wrong conclusions. When you’re told about wage stagnation but growing corporate profits, you’re supposed to think employees are getting a smaller piece of the pie. That’s not true: https://www.nber.org/digest/oct08/w13953.html

> Total employee compensation was 66 percent of national income in 1970 and 64 percent in 2006. This measure of the labor compensation share has been remarkably stable since the 1970s. It rose from an average of 62 percent in the 1960s to 66 percent in the 1970s and 1980s, and then declined to 65 percent in the 1990s where it has remained from 2000 until the end of 2007.

latearlyFI
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by latearlyFI »

I don't understand those against UBI. If you're against it, what are you for?

Were you okay with the Bank Bailout and the 15% Corporate Tax cuts?
Are you okay with Amazon & other big companies paying zero Federal tax?
Do you think Alaska should abolish their current dividend?
Are you for the wealthy keeping their wealth in off-shore tax havens, letting the proletariat carry it all via income tax?
Are you for abolishing welfare because they're all lazy drug takers?
Do you want to raise college education and get rid of scholarships?
Do you want to get into the Student Loan market and cash in on that scam?

This country needs a new plan. I think UBI is the answer. I read Andrew Yang's book, "The War on Normal People", and it makes total sense. It redistributes tax obligations, it redistributes the savings created by automation. It helps the poor, the working poor, the students.

The Automation revolution is happening. Waymo is a self driving taxi service already operating in Arizona, Accenture just laid off 40,000 people. Millions more will be laid off in the next few years. There is no going back, the only clear solution anyone has offered is Yang. In one of his interviews he said he went to Washington to find out what they're planning on doing about it, the number one response was, "We don't talk about that". That is very creepy.

IlliniDave
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by IlliniDave »

Were you okay with the Bank Bailout and the 15% Corporate Tax cuts? No/Yes.
Are you okay with Amazon & other big companies paying zero Federal tax? Yes, if they follow the laws.
Do you think Alaska should abolish their current dividend? No. That's up to Alaska to decide, not me.
Are you for the wealthy keeping their wealth in off-shore tax havens, letting the proletariat carry it all via income tax? No, but I don't blame them.
Are you for abolishing welfare because they're all lazy drug takers? No.
Do you want to raise college education and get rid of scholarships? No.
Do you want to get into the Student Loan market and cash in on that scam? No.

Campitor
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by Campitor »

latearlyFI wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:32 am
I don't understand those against UBI. If you're against it, what are you for?
I'm for helping those that need help. Giving money to those who don't need it is wasteful.
Were you okay with the Bank Bailout and the 15% Corporate Tax cuts?
I'm not okay with bailing out banks. Poor business decisions shouldn't be rewarded. Banks should be allowed to fail so that other banks don't repeat or escalate bad business practices. However when the US Government pressures banks into giving loans to people who couldn't afford the homes they were purchasing, and those homeowners default on their loans, the US government should bail out banks when government policy contributes to a bank's failure, I'm not exonerating the banks - they exacerbated the problems with their derivative bundling of loans.

And since so many banks were affected by this bad loan scheme, it was in the US government's interest to prevent the collapse of so many banks in order to protect the "proletariat". That banks benefitted was an undesired but necessary evil. Bailing out the banks was one of the decisions that Obama made that I supported. And I would rather see a paying down of the US debt than a corporate tax cut.
Are you okay with Amazon & other big companies paying zero Federal tax?

No but currently it's legal.
Do you think Alaska should abolish their current dividend?
That's up to Alaska. And the dividend isn't paid out to everyone - those charged with a felony and incarcerated don't get money.

And the money distributed isn't a set amount:

The amount of each payment is based upon a five-year average of the Permanent Fund's performance and varies widely depending on the stock market and many other factors. The PFD is calculated by the following steps:

Add Fund Statutory Net Income from the current plus the previous four fiscal years.
Multiply by 21%
Divide by 2
Subtract prior year obligations, expenses and PFD program operations
Divide by the number of eligible applicants
Are you for the wealthy keeping their wealth in off-shore tax havens, letting the proletariat carry it all via income tax?

No but I'm not blind to the tax pressures that makes it a favorable option. The more pressure you put on the rich, the more incentive they have to legally offshoring of money. That's right - it's legal. Any US resident can offshore money but most probably never researched it. Rich people like to research this kind of stuff - just ask your congressman or senator - they legally offshore too - at least the rich ones do.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/m ... ing-it.asp:

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to hold money out of your home country. First, there’s the tax treatment. In many countries, you can earn money tax-free. How would you like to put your money to work in another country, earn some fat capital gains and pay zero taxes to that country? That’s technically possible when you move your money offshore.

Even the United States allows it. In recent years, the United States has become one of the world’s favorite tax havens. States like Nevada, Wyoming and South Dakota now hold a large amount of foreign money, but the reason is not primarily for the favorable tax treatment.

Are you for abolishing welfare because they're all lazy drug takers?
No and they are not all lazy drug takers. Why do you think people on welfare are lazy drug takers? However there are people who are drug takers that get welfare so it's probably a good thing they are given assistance for housing, medicine, and food instead of cash which would probably be used for drugs which is what addicts do - they exhaust their money feeding their drug habit instead of purchasing food, housing, and medicine.
Do you want to raise college education and get rid of scholarships?
Yes - I want to raise the quality of all college education so that it's a world class education but I don't want to increase the cost - colleges administrators are doing a very good job of raising prices without my help. Why would I want to get rid of scholarships? I think the needy should get scholarships if the money is available and they show the proper academic aptitude.
Do you want to get into the Student Loan market and cash in on that scam?
Huh? What scams are you talking about? You have to be specific. Are you using "scam" sarcastically or are you talking about specific scams such as companies posing as legitimate scholarship agencies who take your money but provide no scholarships? And NO - I don't want to scam anyone regardless the business sector in question. And yes - college is a business - the people who work there are not working for free.
This country needs a new plan. I think UBI is the answer. I read Andrew Yang's book, "The War on Normal People", and it makes total sense. It redistributes tax obligations, it redistributes the savings created by automation. It helps the poor, the working poor, the students.

The Automation revolution is happening. Waymo is a self driving taxi service already operating in Arizona, Accenture just laid off 40,000 people. Millions more will be laid off in the next few years. There is no going back, the only clear solution anyone has offered is Yang. In one of his interviews he said he went to Washington to find out what they're planning on doing about it, the number one response was, "We don't talk about that". That is very creepy.
The country does need a plan but UBI isn't it. And automation will stop when the cost of automation is no longer the better economic option versus hiring humans. Keep raising the cost of employment on businesses and they will keep adopting automation.

Toska2
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by Toska2 »

Isn't UBI a tribal idea that won't work in a monetary and capitalistic society? Tribes never had corporations with human rights, toxic wastes, low mortality rate and as few hardships.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I finished the "The Technology Trap" by Carl Benedikt Frey, and I think most members of this forum would agree that he gives the topic of social ramifications of job loss due to AI technologies a fair and balanced analysis. Highly recommend.

The author offers good evidence that the problem is real and already happening in many realms where work tasks are routine or only moderately skilled. He also believes that UBI is not the best solution and suggests the following as more likely to provide better incentive along with social structure safety net.

1) Early childhood education programs to break growing cycle of inter-generational poverty in previous working class rust-belt communities.
2) Vouchers to cover moving expenses so workers can relocate to more vibrant areas.
3) Reduction of building restrictions, zoning codes, licensing requirements, and no-compete contracts along with improvements to public transportation, so workers are better able to afford to live within commuting distance of high affluence/high employment areas and are also better able to quickly change means of livelihood.
4) Wage insurance and expansion of earned income credit program.

One of the most interesting of many interesting visuals in this book showed clear correlation between states where males with level of educational attainment = high school degree voted for Trump in 2016 and the number of multi-purpose (those with flexible ability to be programmed for many different tasks) robots deployed in each state. For instance, the number of multi-purpose robots on the job in the state of Michigan is greater than the number on the job in all the Western states combined.

Another interesting visual was a set of graphs showing educational attainment vs full-time employment status for members of each gender. For women, the growing divide is not nearly as bad as for men. Men with graduate degrees show clear, strong upward trend in earnings and men with only high school degree or only some college show clear, strong downward trend in earnings. One of the results of this gender disparity is great reduction in marriage rate and subsequent growth in single mother households among former working class whites in America over the last 30 years now leading to entrenchment of inter-generational poverty.

trfie
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by trfie »

latearlyFI wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:32 am
I really do not get it. UBI is a bad idea, but your comparison is other bad ideas? Is it to make UBI look better in comparison?

How about trillions of dollars not be spent on foreign wars?
How about repealing tariffs (which hurt the poor the most)?
How about wealthy countries stop subsidizing their farmers, which is at the expense of their own population + poor farmers in the third world.
Why don't countries stop restricting the flow of immigrants? Has anyone not read/seen pictures of ppl dying in the frightful journeys out of their countries, where they would otherwise starve or be killed by terrorist groups? Why is it so dangerous? It's because it's illegal for them to come (which is why they have to pay exorbitant fees to scammers). Even without any government provisions in the new country, they would be better off being allowed to take the decision of moving to another country, and it dramatically improves the wealth/country they are going to.
Why doesn't the federal government get out of the business of profiting off student loans, which also gives colleges and universities a continuous munificent source of income that allows them to charge ridiculous amounts?
Why doesn't the federal government stop preferential treatment of large corporations?

I could make 100 more suggestions which are all based on extensive data (as well as concordant with common-sense).

In this thread @Campitor, at least, has extensively shown why a UBI is a bad idea.

latearlyFI
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by latearlyFI »

I don't remember who it was on this thread/site, but I know that someone recommended we read, "The War on Normal People", by Andrew Yang, and even said its hard to read at first but ends well. Well! Let me tell you, I stayed up all night unable to put it down before I finished it in early June this year. I was so shocked and impressed by it. Afterwards I looked up the author, (which I only do when I'm very impressed) and was astounded and delighted that he is running for President. I've since researched his policies and watched him on Youtube interviews eg Joe Rogan etc Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTsEzmFamZ8&t=50s

Now I'm a huge supporter of his. I've never felt compelled to donate to a Candidate before as I have with him.

Anyway today they are doing a #yangGangChallenge to write about how you heard of him and I wanted to thank this forum and whoever recommended the book for setting me on the path to know this candidate, he is the only one that gives me hope.

trfie
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by trfie »

latearlyFI wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:18 am
bigato, well said!

I am a new US Citizen, and I was asked to choose a Political party when I registered in my state. I didn't know. So I've been on a mission to educate myself and talk to people so I can make an informed vote. I've been surprised mostly by the odd collection of issues that represent one side or the other, I mean why does guns correlate with abortion? And I've learned to be careful, people get really mad at you if you even mention liking a Democrat Policy where I live. I like and despise policies of both parties.

I wish we could discuss important issues separately without branding them with a political party. For example, little did I know that caring about the environment was political! I thought it was you know an environmental, earthling issue. Climate change policy should be based on science not politicking..
You are right, the collection of stances on issues makes no sense, but the population has been brainwashed into thinking that such positions are somehow related. IMO one of the most important things is to not affiliate with or contribute to one of the 2 major parties, as they have been colluding for decades to maintain a stranglehold on American politics, to the detriment of other parties and points of view. Some obvious examples are not allowing other candidates into the presidential debates and passing laws in all 50 states that make it very easy for democratic/republican candidates to get on the ballot, and extremely difficult for anyone else. Plus they are beholden to special interests/large corporations/wealthy constituents, even though eg Democrats will pretend that it is the Republicans that are to blame, etc.

latearlyFI
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by latearlyFI »

Campitor wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:15 pm
What's your suggestion? If automation causes mass unemployment what's the solution? UBI is the quickest most straightforward way to help people IMO.

latearlyFI
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:24 am

Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by latearlyFI »

trfie wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:50 pm
You are right, the collection of stances on issues makes no sense, but the population has been brainwashed into thinking that such positions are somehow related. IMO one of the most important things is to not affiliate with or contribute to one of the 2 major parties, as they have been colluding for decades to maintain a stranglehold on American politics, to the detriment of other parties and points of view. Some obvious examples are not allowing other candidates into the presidential debates and passing laws in all 50 states that make it very easy for democratic/republican candidates to get on the ballot, and extremely difficult for anyone else. Plus they are beholden to special interests/large corporations/wealthy constituents, even though eg Democrats will pretend that it is the Republicans that are to blame, etc.

So true, such a shame it's so polarized, it reduces good policy discussion. I think Andrew Yang is really more of an independent. It's a shame he had to run on a Democratic ticket. Interestingly he is picking up a lot of unhappy Trump supporters.

I'm still on the rough road of navigating talking politics. I recently was lectured by someone for mentioning Yang, I was accused to being a baby killer and wanting to make people lazy due to welfare. Ugh I don't like being branded. I've given up talking about it in real life. Just discuss the issues online. I'm an independent and I like Yang's vision.

Campitor
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by Campitor »

latearlyFI wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:57 am
What's your suggestion? If automation causes mass unemployment what's the solution? UBI is the quickest most straightforward way to help people IMO.
  1. Lower the cost of employment for the jobs that are being replaced by automation. Either mandated benefits need to be trimmed or costs reduced (maternity leave, insurance coverage, etc.) or the minimum wage floor must remain low. While major corporations can handle the increased costs, small businesses cannot. Small businesses employ 47.5% of the working population (source: https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files ... les-US.pdf). And UBI isn't a long term solution to growing unemployment - the math shows that it's unsustainable.
  2. Eliminate the excessive regulations which makes it too expensive for small businesses to open and/or compete in the market.
  3. Tort reform which limits punitive awards against small businesses. Slipping on a wet floor shouldn't be a lottery win. This drives up insurance costs which impacts small businesses; the money can be used for wages, salaries, and capital improvements.
  4. Remove the zoning laws which sets plot limits and minimum sq footage to excessive sizes which drives up the cost of real estate and rental units.
  5. Remove tariffs on Canadian lumber to lessen the cost of new home construction.
The list can go on and on. Bad government policy has done more to erode the purchasing power of the average American than most people realize; I would include UBI in this category should it be implemented.

theanimal
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by theanimal »

I forget where I heard it (maybe Eric Weinstein with Joe Rogan? Or Peter Thiel? IDK) but someone was making the argument that most of the jobs to be automated have already been automated. He was arguing against Yang's position that there was this huge wave of automation to come. Most of the factories already have the robots and self driving cars are years down the road/overblown.

For the curious, Scott Alexander's most recent post highlights someone who has gone through each proposal for UBI and has deconstructed whether they are financially feasible or not (spoiler: none are). https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/01/s ... ubi-plans/

I've received the PFD in AK for the past 3 years and it really isn't anything like UBI. Sure it's money that's sent every year but the amount is about 10% of being proposed by most advocates. It's not really a fair comparison.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: The benefits of a basic income // much higher min wage

Post by tonyedgecombe »

I thought HomarusSimpson's post on that was interesting, it is doable but probably not at the levels being promoted.

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