Early Retirement Extreme Forums

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:55 am

with the only people in the hospitals/morgues being those who deliberately decided that the risk of not getting vaccinated was worth it.

Is that really true though because my understanding - correct me if I'm wrong - vaccines are not 100% effective, especially with variants ? So the irresponsibly non-vaccinted are still a threat to the responsibily vaccinated.

chenda wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:04 am

Is that really true though because my understanding - correct me if I'm wrong - vaccines are not 100% effective, especially with variants ? So the irresponsibly non-vaccinted are still a threat to the responsibily vaccinated.

The 30% or so who don't want the vaccine will become a de facto reservoir for the virus which will become endemic because 30% is not high enough for herd immunity. It didn't have to be this way but this is how it turned out.

Many things can happen. New variants will evolve (they already have) or the virus can burn out in the remaining susceptible population and achieve herd immunity by infection followed by recovery or removal. The new variants might be more infectious or more virulent because they have to jump further or they might not need that since vaccine-resistance tends to run in philosophical bubbles. The variants might also become more sneaky (less virulent) with longer incubation periods or require less particles for an infection. They might find children or people under 50 to be much better vectors. Nature finds a way. Humans just changed the game somewhat. Rinse and repeat. Now that the vaccine exists, there will be [regular] booster shots developed to deal with new variants, similar to the flu/flu-vaccine.

Wall Street Journal wrote:The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified a small cohort of approximately 5,800 cases of Covid-19 infection among more than 66 million Americans who have completed a full course of vaccination.

CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients

This proportion seems very favorable to me!

Miss Lonelyhearts wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:25 pm

CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients

This proportion seems very favorable to me!

Agreed.... somewhat. The older and less heathy one is, the more it makes sense to vaccinate. OTOH, considering so many of the decisions made during the pandemic used the belt-and-suspenders precautionary-principle, it is surprising that more people are not applying that same metric to the vaccination of young healthy people. Especially now that we have two examples where the vaccines are not perfect. We never expected perfection but coercing young people to stick themselves is now a calculation that is not cut and dry.

I am one of the young healthy people who is on the fence about getting the Pfizer vaccine or not. I have been waiting for the non-emergency approval from the CDC with some longer term data. I do my best to make data driven decisions but the data on this one is fuzzy. I am naturally apprehensive to be first in line for new vaccines, drugs, etc given that you do not get a do over with your health. Is it known whether getting the vaccine prevents you from being a carrier to the unvaccinated? I see many people passing the decision off to saving others, but I haven’t seen any definitive answer on if this is true or not. Are there any potential long term side effects from mRNA vaccines? I am fine with 2 days of feeling awful but I am not okay with auto immune issues in a year or two. Is it really in my best interest to get vaccinated given that I am healthy and young? I admit I would like to no longer worry about covid but don’t have the long term reassurance from studies proving that it won’t cause more harm via the cure.

My main concerns are female sterility caused by the protein for which mRNA is the plan, and the very small likelyhood that a retrovirus might happen to copy the mRNA in the DNA and make any yet unknown side effect permanent. Which has the potential to be very unfortunate. If I had to put a number on how much money I'de need to be paid to accept this risk, it would be several billions. OTOH, i accepted the risk of getting infected by a coronavirus a few million generation ago.

Jean wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:01 pm

My main concerns are female sterility caused by the protein for which mRNA is the plan, and the very small likelyhood that a retrovirus might happen to copy the mRNA in the DNA and make any yet unknown side effect permanent.

Shouldn't you be just as concerned about the same thing happening when you catch COVID? The vaccine proteins are based on the virus, after all.

Every potential risk of getting vaccinated needs to be weighed against the known and unknown risks inherent to catching COVID. Nothing in life is risk free, and eventually catching COVID is almost certain without vaccination.

Yes, but it will be easier to accept if it happens because of a natural virus, than if it happens because i let someone inject something in me.
I'de rather die because i'm weak than because i'm fool.

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:55 am

I've heard it described in terms to the effect that "given the availability to effectively bulletproof vaccines to everyone who wants them, the pandemic is morally over"

Getting my second shot Monday. I expect to be masked and distancing in public for a long time. Ignoring the vulnerable who cannot vaccinate, I don't want to harm the vaccine decliners either. It's a small effort, one I really don't mind.

From what I've read on the mRNA vaccines, I don't have any safety concerns. Of course, I get the flu vaccine every year too. Once I understood the implications of herd immunity, I've always felt obligated to do my part.

Russell Brand on covid passports:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGgvgKE0n8o

Oxford University study showing that covid itself increases chance of a blod clot much more than vaccines:

https://osf.io/a9jdq/

These data show that the incidence of CVT is significantly increased after COVID-19, and greater than that observed with BNT162b2 and RNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines. The risk of CVT following COVID-19 is also higher than the latest estimate from the European Medicines Agency for the incidence associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (5.0 per million people, 95% CI 4.3–5.8). Although requiring replication and corroboration, the present data highlight the risk of serious thrombotic events in COVID-19, and can help contextualizethe risks and benefits of vaccination in this regard.

Bankai wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:21 pm

Oxford University study showing that covid itself increases chance of a blod clot much more than vaccines:

https://osf.io/a9jdq/

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/obesit ... id-19.html

Obesity Worsens Outcomes from COVID-19
Adults with excess weight are at even greater risk during the COVID-19 pandemic:

Having obesity increases the risk of severe illness from COVID-19. People who are overweight may also be at increased risk.
Having obesity may triple the risk of hospitalization due to a COVID-19 infection.
Obesity is linked to impaired immune function.2,3
Obesity decreases lung capacity and reserve and can make ventilation more difficult.4
A study of COVID-19 cases suggests that risks of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death are higher with increasing BMI.5
The increased risk for hospitalization or death was particularly pronounced in those under age 65. 5
More than 900,000 adult COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred in the United States between the beginning of the pandemic and November 18, 2020. Models estimate that 271,800 (30.2%) of these hospitalizations were attributed to obesity.6

Considering that the majority of COVID complication appears to coincide with obesity, it's not surprising that blood clots would spike for those with severe covid symptoms. Does the Oxford study account for this? Comparing the metrics for obese covid infectees against a healthy unvaccinated population will not convince those sitting on the fence. Disclaimer - I've gotten the pfizer vaccine - both doses. I'm not an anti-vaxxer.

Edit: I had zero symptoms after getting both doses. Only a mild soreness on the 2nd shot that lasted less than 4 hours.

Campitor wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:44 am

Comparing the metrics for obese covid infectees against a healthy unvaccinated population will not convince those sitting on the fence.

What makes you think we have a healthy unvaccinated vs unhealthy vaccinated population.

ducknald_don wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:29 am

What makes you think we have a healthy unvaccinated vs unhealthy vaccinated population.

I'm assuming those who are on the fence about getting a Covid vaccination are young and healthy - they haven't lived long enough for their lifestyle choices to have a significant impact on their biology and are worried about taking a vaccine that was fast tracked and hasn't undergone any long term trials.

And since the Oxford study talks about blood clotting, that's not an uncommon occurrence for the obese who also happen to be one of the biggest groups that suffer from severe covid symptoms. If the Oxford study corrects for obesity then the actual risk of clotting caused by covid versus covid vaccine will be a more accurate assessment.

How many otherwise healthy adults (no previous health issues or obesity) have experienced covid blood clots versus healthy persons who have gotten covid vaccine? It could be that blood clotting on either side (vaccinated versus covid infected) is caused by obesity and not covid or the vaccine.

Online registrations started for everyone above 18 wanting to get vaccinated after 1st May.

Unempleyment back to pre-covid level after flirting with 40%

Jacob's NNT/NNH summary is in essence what matters here. In almost all situations vaccine >>>>>>>>> COVID infection in terms of which to pick.

The UK decision to avoid AZ in the <30s is reasonable as for that group 1) COVID is normally mild and 2) there is no need as there are alternatives sufficient to cover that group who are back of the queue anyway.

True these vaccines were emergency authorised. But we have the in vivo experiment of millions of jabs in arms. This is the reason we now know about these rare clots. Is it impossible that there are other rarer or more latent side effects? Possibly. But that is also true of wild type COVID infection. And much more likely. Just look at long COVID numbers. I would be much more worried about that than vaccine side effects. I have be dosed up with Pfizer. Side effects: classic rash and mild shoulder pain that didn't stop same day workout.

I would be cautious about calling the pandemic morally over when vaccine availability is not total and there are certain groups refusing in much higher numbers. We have a major issues with poor take up in BAME patients for multiple complex social and cultural factors. This is also causing a lot of controversy when it comes to vaccine passports. Vaccine refusal is rarely about 'facts'

Antibodies from natural infection do not have high levels against the RBD. This could be because the RBD epitope may be hidden to prevent host immune recognition. The less robust and variable antibody response to natural infection suggests immunity acquired by natural infection may not be as strong as that from vaccination. “We should not assume that previously infected individuals are immune or that they cannot transmit the virus,” write the authors.

Thus, vaccination induces a more robust antibody response, and even people who have been previously infected may benefit from the vaccine.

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/2 ... ction.aspx

In regards to flu vaccinations and the pandemic being morally over, there world has never achieved a global vaccination rate to produce global herd immunity. I wager that once things get back to normal people will start traveling again to regions with poor vaccination rates, something which is occurring today in a limited fashion since global trade hasn't stopped.

The 2018 article highlights our past behavior during an aggressive flu season: https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/10/26/in ... same-12504

Our current vaccination rate is around 38%, despite a flu season last year that took 80,000 lives. In the EU, the aggregate vaccination rate has been 41.8% with several countries vaccination rates approaching 70% or more. But the numbers of vaccinated people in other parts of the globe, specifically southeastern Asia, the eastern Mediterranean and Africa are much less. What accounts for the disparities? Hint, it is not about money.

The "moral termination" to a flu response is the practical acceptance of the inherent limitation of controlling disease and death. We learn to live with the flu once treatments/vaccines are developed and reconcile ourselves to the deaths that occur from compromised immune systems, susceptibility to the flu, or anti-vaxxer beliefs.

Humans are going to human, but as an individual, I'm going to consider measures that bring us closer to herd immunity or reduce R0. As I understand it, there's not a magic threshold. Even if we don't get to XX%, there is still protective effect moving closer.

Given my tendency to socialize with like minded people, I imagine the protective effect in my bubble is higher due to the shared behavior.

We're really debating if/when a return to exercising indoors happens. I like going to the gym. But, it's a petri dish. I certainly won't be willing to ignore lax hygiene, found at the budget friendly options I use to frequent. My parents feel the same. Mom's looking at a gym run by the local hospital system. I'm planning to check off hours at the luxury gym, which has higher cleaning standards, and also gives their employees benefits.

Similar with shopping - it's going to be off peak hours, still masked, etc. I have the privilege of being picky, with no real negative effect.


As pro-vaccine as I am, I have to admit - the 2nd dose (Moderna) hit me hard. By that night, I was struggling. Extreme fatigue, chills, labored breathing, etc. I stayed in bed through the following day. Even today, 2 days after, I've been dragging. I'll think I feel better, then get winded and overheat doing basic life tasks. A sore shoulder was the least of my problems.

From what I understand the response is highly variable, but it might be a good idea to plan for some down time after dose 2.

I got my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday and didn’t really notice any ill effects other than muscle soreness at the injection site and maybe some lethargy today.

Regarding the exercising indoors piece, my 2 cents is that the people regularly going to the gym generally aren’t those that are going to be most vulnerable to COVID. I’ve been lifting for the past 6 months in a gym that’s a converted garage/warehouse space, so technically the garage doors on both sides are almost always open and I think it qualifies as an outdoor gym.

I suspect the benefits from regular exercise/strength training might outweigh the risks for many people, but like anything else you ultimately have to make your own assessment. I know there have been a couple studies looking at COVID spread in gyms, but I also wonder how the lack of exercise, weight gain, etc from quarantine increases risks (also psychological effects). In an ideal world everyone would just shift their workouts to at home or outdoors, but we know that there are likely many people who gave up exercise entirely at the start of the pandemic.