COVID topic vol 2

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Campitor
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Campitor »

In regards to flu vaccinations and the pandemic being morally over, there world has never achieved a global vaccination rate to produce global herd immunity. I wager that once things get back to normal people will start traveling again to regions with poor vaccination rates, something which is occurring today in a limited fashion since global trade hasn't stopped.

The 2018 article highlights our past behavior during an aggressive flu season: https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/10/26/in ... same-12504
Our current vaccination rate is around 38%, despite a flu season last year that took 80,000 lives. In the EU, the aggregate vaccination rate has been 41.8% with several countries vaccination rates approaching 70% or more. But the numbers of vaccinated people in other parts of the globe, specifically southeastern Asia, the eastern Mediterranean and Africa are much less. What accounts for the disparities? Hint, it is not about money.
The "moral termination" to a flu response is the practical acceptance of the inherent limitation of controlling disease and death. We learn to live with the flu once treatments/vaccines are developed and reconcile ourselves to the deaths that occur from compromised immune systems, susceptibility to the flu, or anti-vaxxer beliefs.

Scott 2
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Scott 2 »

Humans are going to human, but as an individual, I'm going to consider measures that bring us closer to herd immunity or reduce R0. As I understand it, there's not a magic threshold. Even if we don't get to XX%, there is still protective effect moving closer.

Given my tendency to socialize with like minded people, I imagine the protective effect in my bubble is higher due to the shared behavior.

We're really debating if/when a return to exercising indoors happens. I like going to the gym. But, it's a petri dish. I certainly won't be willing to ignore lax hygiene, found at the budget friendly options I use to frequent. My parents feel the same. Mom's looking at a gym run by the local hospital system. I'm planning to check off hours at the luxury gym, which has higher cleaning standards, and also gives their employees benefits.

Similar with shopping - it's going to be off peak hours, still masked, etc. I have the privilege of being picky, with no real negative effect.


As pro-vaccine as I am, I have to admit - the 2nd dose (Moderna) hit me hard. By that night, I was struggling. Extreme fatigue, chills, labored breathing, etc. I stayed in bed through the following day. Even today, 2 days after, I've been dragging. I'll think I feel better, then get winded and overheat doing basic life tasks. A sore shoulder was the least of my problems.

From what I understand the response is highly variable, but it might be a good idea to plan for some down time after dose 2.

white belt
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by white belt »

I got my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday and didn’t really notice any ill effects other than muscle soreness at the injection site and maybe some lethargy today.

Regarding the exercising indoors piece, my 2 cents is that the people regularly going to the gym generally aren’t those that are going to be most vulnerable to COVID. I’ve been lifting for the past 6 months in a gym that’s a converted garage/warehouse space, so technically the garage doors on both sides are almost always open and I think it qualifies as an outdoor gym.

I suspect the benefits from regular exercise/strength training might outweigh the risks for many people, but like anything else you ultimately have to make your own assessment. I know there have been a couple studies looking at COVID spread in gyms, but I also wonder how the lack of exercise, weight gain, etc from quarantine increases risks (also psychological effects). In an ideal world everyone would just shift their workouts to at home or outdoors, but we know that there are likely many people who gave up exercise entirely at the start of the pandemic.

Scott 2
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Scott 2 »

If it was just personal impact to consider, the gym decision would be a lot easier. But, when I choose my exposure, I'm choosing for everyone in my circle. What risk am I comfortable accepting for my aging parents? My wife with chronic illness? My friends with a recent baby? Working out at home might lack community, but it is zero risk.

I am more conscious of general exposure to germs as well. A year of covid precautions has been a year without cold or flu. I like that.


The vote with my dollars is another consideration. My prior gym was running BJJ classes by May 2020. They remained open through shutdown orders, pushing limits every step of the way. Nobody else was open. I'm sure it was good for their bottom line.

I won't step through the doors again, let alone give them any money. They've selected for people with the riskiest behavior. Hard pass.

ducknald_don
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ducknald_don »

white belt wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:19 pm
Regarding the exercising indoors piece, my 2 cents is that the people regularly going to the gym generally aren’t those that are going to be most vulnerable to COVID. I’ve been lifting for the past 6 months in a gym that’s a converted garage/warehouse space, so technically the garage doors on both sides are almost always open and I think it qualifies as an outdoor gym.
Lots of people working out and breathing hard, it sounds like the ideal place for transmission to me.

I also wonder whether younger, fitter people are more likely to be asymptomatic and hence bring the virus to a gym.

white belt
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by white belt »

@Scott2

Does that calculus change when everyone in your circle is vaccinated?

ajcoleman22
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ajcoleman22 »

dycknald_don

Have you seen information showing high levels of transmission in the Gym? If so, I would like to see that. Everything I have been looking at shows that gyms are some of the lowest places for transmission given the rarity of asymptomatic transmission.

Synthesize
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Synthesize »

I have been work from home since last February, but my work announced a return to the office with no masks required in the near future. Being in the Midwest, my coworkers are definitely not going to be wearing masks... I originally planned on waiting to get the vaccine until full FDA approval but that doesn't appear to be an option anymore. My risk calculation has been altered, so I need to adjust. I have been getting up to speed on the Pfizer vaccine which I have access to but one question in regards to the mrna vaccines I could not find the answer to is how long the body makes spike proteins and when it knows to stop making the spike proteins?

Viktor K
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Viktor K »

Synthesize wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:15 pm
... how long the body makes spike proteins and when it knows to stop making the spike proteins?
I believe this is not the case. My assumption is that the body would produce the relevant antibodies to neutralize the existing spike proteins.

Edit to remove incorrect information.
Last edited by Viktor K on Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Synthesize
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Synthesize »

I appreciate the input! I could very well be thinking about it incorrectly. I was basing my assumption off this article:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... t-20506465
Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. This type of vaccine uses genetically engineered mRNA to give your cells instructions for how to make a harmless piece of the S protein found on the surface of the COVID-19 virus. After vaccination, your immune cells begin making the S protein pieces and displaying them on cell surfaces. This causes your body to create antibodies. If you become infected with the COVID-19 virus, these antibodies will fight the virus. After the mRNA helps your cells make the protein pieces, the mRNA is immediately broken down.
I was curious when/how the cells that received the instructions from the mRNA to produce the protein stop making the proteins? Do the antibodies kill the cells that are producing the proteins? I am trying to confirm there is a process to stop what the the vaccine starts.

Viktor K
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Viktor K »

Cells break down spent mRNA. Seems like my idea that spike proteins would continue infecting cells after being produced is actually false.

The concern that mRNA and or spike proteins will just continue without cessation is not supported by current science, as far as I’m aware.

I did see this video which suggests that some mRNA provide additional coding to generate more spike proteins. I don’t know if the Pfizer vaccine does this.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oMXGGmBfkf8&pp=QACIAgA%3D

Viktor K
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Viktor K »

Some info on mRNA degradation https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... _sec1title

Unfortunately most of the search results are heavily distilled. A lot of them cover the conspiracies e.g. “does the vaccine change my DNA?” “Can I get COVID from the vaccine?” And simple explanations of the vaccine (I.e. not much more in depth than the video I linked.
After the spike protein is made, the cell destroys the mRNA (the vaccine’s genetic material) (here here). The newly created spike protein is then displayed on the cell’s surface, which elicits a response from the immune system. The immune system makes antibodies to fight the foreign protein, much like what would happen during an infection (here). The vaccine may also activate killer T-cells to destroy cells that display the spike protein fragments on their surfaces (here).
https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL1N2LS337

Scott 2
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Scott 2 »

white belt wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:54 am
@Scott2
Does that calculus change when everyone in your circle is vaccinated?
Definitely a consideration. Also general community numbers. Because some of my loved ones are high risk, I am going to err conservative in my approach. There's no un-ringing the bell - death of a loved one (or worse, long covid followed by suicide).

I do recognize the bias of privilege. I'm a heavy introvert and already established in life. Same for most of my circle. Our price for caution is low. Dating isn't a consideration. Or even networking. Everyone in our circle has a home with yard. There are dozens of parks and trails. It's easy to be careful.

I do believe we are dealing with an endemic virus. It has and will continue to mutate. Community numbers are a lagging indicator of new problems. Tragic mutations are going to appear in hindsight, after deaths spike. I expect to need a booster in the fall and annual vaccinations moving forward. I think leaders have to de-emphasize this risk, to keep hope alive, and mitigate the disaster of people giving up entirely.

A permanent shift in behaviors to mitigate contagious disease is warranted. Jacob predicted this early on. It's going to be an individual thing, like healthy eating. There will be some broad societal protections, but wide variance between demographics and regions. We're already seeing it. I think they might take another year or two to converge.

I don't need a study to decide joining an indoor spin class is a bad idea. I've been in gyms long enough to know - if the community has a 5% positive rate, some exercise addict will insist on riding while symptomatic. They might even cool their forehead to pass a temperature screen. People are like that. It's hardcore. I don't need to test my vaccination in that environment.

Now at 5% positive, can I do some lifts, then use the rowing machine at 1pm on a Tuesday? Or 7pm on a Sunday? Probably. A hatha yoga class, at a less popular time slot, where I bring my own props? Perhaps. I'd skip the mat to mat hot vinyasa though. The trade off - of course - is that removing risk removes social benefits. At a certain point, maybe it's better to use the rack in my basement and go for a walk.

As much as the true risk is important, it will also depend heavily on the perceptions of my loved ones. If they aren't comfortable, even if I disagree, I won't do it. I can take a kettlebell to the park.

wheatstate
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by wheatstate »

ajcoleman22 wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:26 am
dycknald_don

Have you seen information showing high levels of transmission in the Gym? If so, I would like to see that. Everything I have been looking at shows that gyms are some of the lowest places for transmission given the rarity of asymptomatic transmission.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7009e1.htm

This is a case of a fitness instructor spreading covid to 20 out of 21 students in Hawaii that he was in contact. The spread happened before the instructor showed symptoms. Two of the cases led to hospitalization. Class size was 10. Participants were spaced 6+ feet. Masks were not always used.

ducknald_don
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ducknald_don »

ajcoleman22 wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:26 am
dycknald_don

Have you seen information showing high levels of transmission in the Gym? If so, I would like to see that. Everything I have been looking at shows that gyms are some of the lowest places for transmission given the rarity of asymptomatic transmission.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/gyms-mask ... d=76091541

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fiby41
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by fiby41 »

| Covaxin | Covishield
Received 1st dose | 9,356,436 |100,302,745
Positive after 1st dose | 4,208 (0.04%) | 17,145 (0.02%)
Received 2nd dose | 1,734,178 | 15,732,754
Positive after 2nd dose | 695 (0.04%) | 5,014 (0.03%)

Viktor K
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Viktor K »

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... uses-clots
"My assumption is, and that's a hypothesis, that this is a class effect of vaccines using adenovirus," he said.
When platelets are activated en masse, as can happen rarely after a person takes the blood thinner heparin or gets the AstraZenecaAstraZeneca vaccine, they release a flood of these signals, Greinacher explained. These blaring signals recruit an ancient and hard-to-control branch of the immune response.
The second key step in these reactions is caused by EDTA, a calcium-binding agent and stabilizer that is added to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
EDTA opens junctions between cells that form the walls of blood vessels, causing them to become leaky. This allows the giant complexes formed by proteins and platelets to enter the blood circulation, where they — on very rare occasions — trigger that body-wide alarm.
When this reaction occurs in patients who have taken heparin, the size of the heparin molecule matters. With unfractionated heparin, the longest kind of molecule, the reaction is 10 times more common than when patients take smaller low-molecular weight heparins.

Scott 2
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Scott 2 »

It's not surprising the vector of spread was an instructor, in the case @wheatstate posted.

Most gyms do not provide benefits. Fitness instructors were not designated as essential workers. Group fitness especially, the instructors have to work across many gyms. The body will only tolerate so many classes, so they tend to be scraping by. If they miss a class, they don't get paid. Often, they are also responsible for finding the sub. It's normal to tough it out and work while sick.

Even in the luxury gym I am considering, which does offer employee benefits, an employee needs to work 130 hours a month to qualify. I doubt group fitness instructors land under that umbrella. Maybe there are some trainers, that also teach classes, who have sorted a full time position.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by IlliniDave »

Got Moderna #2 today. I have a friend (had, really) who won't speak to me any more except to tell me how stupid I am and how disappointed she is in me for getting vaccinated. I'm thinking we had an asymmetrical "friendship". So in a sense covid vaccine = refuse to vote for HRC. The latter was the last time prior that someone with great ceremony decided we couldn't be friends any more.

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Ego
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Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

Ego wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:07 am
I mentioned very early in this tread that I am not personally worried about the virus itself, I am concerned about the reaction to it. Now I've got a new concern. I believe CRISPR makes this kind of pandemic far more likely in the future. The next time it will be worse and we will under-react because we are always fighting the last war.
Engineering the Apocalypse

https://wakingup.libsyn.com/special-epi ... apocalypse

In this nearly 4-hour SPECIAL EPISODE, Rob Reid delivers a 100-minute monologue (broken up into 4 segments, and interleaved with discussions with Sam) about the looming danger of a man-made pandemic, caused by an artificially-modified pathogen. The risk of this occurring is far higher and nearer-term than almost anyone realizes.

Rob explains the science and motivations that could produce such a catastrophe and explores the steps that society must start taking today to prevent it. These measures are concrete, affordable, and scientifically fascinating—and almost all of them are applicable to future, natural pandemics as well. So if we take most of them, the odds of a future Covid-like outbreak would plummet—a priceless collateral benefit.

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