COVID topic vol 2

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 6651
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jennypenny »

Nate Silver's head is exploding on twitter over the J&J pause.

Tyler Cowen has a piece on Bloomberg about our view of sins of omission vs. sins of commission. He also discussed Covid on Econtalk last week.

Qazwer
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu May 16, 2019 6:51 pm

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Qazwer »

These are quick estimates from reported cases. Not necessarily causative or not. Some may or may not be missing as well. FDA stops stuff in general (not just in this case) to do a deeper dive to better evaluate risk and benefit. This is more of a signal that there may be something that needs to be understood
Pandemics may or may not change the calculus depending on how you view the world

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 5172
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:07 am
70 is a big number, especially since comparing deaths to serious hospitalizations. Dunno what the current survival rate is in ICU.
78% of all those hospitalized with Covid-19 are obese or overweight. That is all-age hospitalization. What percentage of the younger cohort you mention are obese or overweight?

Severe outcomes increase considerably with age so it is not unreasonable to assume that most of the young people who experienced a severe outcome were obese or overweight considering 42.5% of the pre-covid population are obese. How many of those 70/100k are obese?

That does not even take into account the other comorbidities. Remove those with comorbidities and we've got to be down to flu level death rates for that age group.

Those vulnerable people should be vaccinated with whatever vaccine is available.

@jennypenny, in general I agree with Cowen's assessment regarding sins of omission vs sins of commission. People should have access to the vaccine and they can decide whether to get vaccinated or not. Also note, Cowen is obese and Silver is not far from it.

I had lunch last week with a few twenty-somethings who were coerced/forced into getting vaccinated despite having zero comorbidities and being specimens of heath. They did it to protect one person who is also vaccinated but continues to live their best Krispy Kreme lifestyle.

I thought it was a good metaphor for what is happening society-wide.

A Life of FI
Posts: 123
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:55 pm

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by A Life of FI »

Ego wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:53 am
What might that calculation look like adjusted for obesity and other comorbidities?
The 26 Euro countries that participate in Euromono have had about 380 deaths above what is considered a substantial increase (the red dotted line) in the 15 to 44 year age group, per my calculations.

There are almost certainly immunosuppressed, obese or people with other comorbidiities in that number but even without getting into the comorbidities the number in itself is relatively small to start with - considering the total population of those 26 countries.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

User avatar
fiby41
Posts: 1405
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:09 am
Location: India
Contact:

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by fiby41 »

For vaccinating 300 million people from 16th January until July-end:

Russia's Sputnik 5, in third stage of trials, gets approval for emergency use. Shots will be imported as well as manufactured by Dr Reddy's and 5 others for local trials.

Pfizer: applies for emergency use authorization in December.
India: Do bridging study in India
Pfizer: First commit to buying the shots.
India: No
Pfizer: withdraws its application in February.

Johnson & Johnson vaccine (in collaboration with Biological E), Novavax vaccine (in collaboration with Serum India), Zydus Cadila's vaccine, and Bharat Biotech's Intranasal Vaccine maybe approved by October.

Infected: 13,873,825
Active: 1,108,000
Recovered: 12,336,036
Deaths: 172,085
1st dose: 97,177,000
2nd dose: 13,009,000

ducknald_don
Posts: 64
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by ducknald_don »

A Life of FI wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:29 pm
The real problem is the fifty plus group, all of them in the UK have been offered a vaccine now but in some ares as many as 30% haven't taken it. These are the people filling intensive care.

Coming out of lockdown looks trickier than going in.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7217
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@ducknald_don:

Yup, non-compliance is such in my region that the fully vaccinated grouchy old man with whom I reside grimly joked that he may be one of the last surviving Republican men over 50 in our state. I replied “Well, bright side would be that it ought to improve your dating options.”

Frita
Posts: 680
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:43 pm

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Frita »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:56 am
@ducknald_don:

Yup, non-compliance is such in my region that the fully vaccinated grouchy old man with whom I reside grimly joked that he may be one of the last surviving Republican men over 50 in our state. I replied “Well, bright side would be that it ought to improve your dating options.”
Ha, thanks for the laugh.

That reminds me of this zinger. People here are about 99% masked up. I saw someone walking by with a mask over just the mouth, which I occasionally see.
Frita: Teen, wearing a mask over just one’s chin is a “chin diaper.” What do you call it if it’s over the mouth but not the nose?
Teen (without missing a beat in flat, Garfield-like affect): a Republican

User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 6651
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jennypenny »

I dunno, the biggest non-compliance I've seen over the last few months is in NJ -- a democratic stronghold. Besides, I thought we weren't doing politics anymore?

I wish this kind of stuff would stay on the MMM forums. :(

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7217
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Frita:

Luckily, the Republican with whom I reside is also reasonably intelligent about science/math and extremely fastidious.

I’m sure it varies by region, but in my neck of the woods, it is very difficult to find any man over 55 of either political affiliation who really believes in climate change or resource depletion, and it’s like the Reds half don’t believe in it one way and the Blues half don’t believe in it another way. So, my super fantastic choices are Anger, Condescension, Silence or Celibacy.

@jp:

Cross-post, but I did try to flip it from politics to “can’t teach any old dogs new tricks.” IOW, cross lunch table grouchy old lady talk.

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 5172
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

Yes, this is what happens when the people welcome without question the narrative being intubated down the throat of society.
They can't help but to regurgitate it.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7217
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Yup, that’s why it’s better to read a wide variety of books and to talk to a wide variety of people instead of social media, podcasts, blogs, your usual breakfast club etc.

User avatar
Ego
Posts: 5172
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Ego »

You left out the most important.

Think

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7217
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Right, and then come to your own conclusions held open to constant update/revision in alignment with Bayesian probability, intuition, etc.

In the book “Decisive”, one suggestion towards facilitating mending of a broken dialogue was to ask both parties what evidence (loosely defined) it would take to convince them of opposing take. So, for instance, if I still needed to be vaccinated, a known/discovered mechanism linking high risk for J&J to my specific demographic OR an order of magnitude higher statistical incidence might cause me to refuse it.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1483
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

jennypenny wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:59 am
I thought we weren't doing politics anymore?
You didn’t get the joke?

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1483
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Following up on my personal experience of recovering from Covid last year, with my libido raging hard as ever;

No less than 4 of my uncles in their late 40’s to late 50’s had Covid, one of whom is a chain smoker and one of whom is obese. All fully recovered. They stayed at home and received no medical treatments.

My 80 year old grandmother has recently recovered from Covid. She is overweight, has Type 2 diabetes and has previously enjoyed two heart attacks. She stayed at home and received no medical treatments.

No one I know has died. Family, friends of friends, colleagues, people at the outermost fringe of my social network. No one. Zero.

My sympathies are with those who have lost loved ones. I would have the same sympathies if they lost loved ones to regular old influenza.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 13231
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

Received my first Pfizer shot yesterday.

IL finally opened up for "the other 60%" (inessential non/workers between 16 and 65).

Things to report: Online booking at an IL mass vaccination site (empty store at a strip mall). Booking was no problem (there were open slots available for hours) and comparable to booking a plane ticket w/o having to fill in much more than your name which they'll match to your ID. (They never asked for proof of insurance. The process was free.) The site logistics was run by the army directing people around (sit there, okay now walk over there, sit there, go to station #44,...) and blue-shirts and purple-shirts doing the shots and taking head temperatures. It took about 1 hr to get through including 15 mins of "recovery" (checking for adverse side-effects). No bottlenecks in the system---they must have been at this for a while---maybe the army should take over the USPS :-P They auto-booked my second shot on the spot. Far far less paperwork and signatures involved than what's typically required to get a cleaning at the dentist. I like! Oh yeah, valved-masks were not allowed. I anticipated there might be "complications" trying to communicate through my P100/N95 monster, which makes it even harder for people to hear my mumbling voice, so I double-masked instead. Overall, people were very good at spacing. I figure there was probably some self-selection effect for the most "well-trained" humans early on in the season.

So far no side-effects but a slightly sore shoulder.
(If I didn't know, I'd guess I'd taken a hard hit or a punch to the shoulder a few hours ago.)

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7217
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Congratulations!

I was knocked pretty hard by second Moderna dose. Chills, terrible headache, fatigue, and pretty big lump on arm, but I have known to be hyper-active immune response, so MMV.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 13231
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by jacob »

An old post of mine reminded me of a better way to think about the J&J vaccine, not that it matters (unless you're a J&J shareholder) since other vaccines are available, unless they're not.

http://earlyretirementextreme.com/my-hd ... -care.html

Specifically, NNT (numbers needed to treat), NNH (harm), NNV (vaccinate).

NNH is 1,000,000 (as discussed above)

The definition of "treatment" is a bit iffy but lets define treatment for a vaccine as something that keeps you out of the hospital.

Since Janssen keeps everybody out of the hospital, the NNT for 40-49 year olds is
https://www.statista.com/statistics/112 ... te-by-age/
100,000/176.8 = 565 .. but since these stats only included half a year and doesn't include the third wave, I feel comfortable dividing by (at least 2) to get 282, so

NNT is 282 (for the 40-49 yos) ... that is to say, you need to vaccinate 282 people to keep one person out of the hospital.

The NNV is defined by the inverse of the incidence rate. Unfortunately we haven't tested everybody so we don't know what it is. It also varies by location as some places are harder hit than others, we can put a limit on it. The Dakotas are the hardest hit in the nation with 13.5% of the population having tested positive at this point.

NNV is 1/0.135 = 7.4

In summary
NNH ~ 1,000,000
NNT ~ 250ish (for a 40-49yo)
NNV ~ 7 (for all ages)

Unless one is philosophically opposed, these are no-brainer ratios. People regularly take drugs with far worse ratios.

A COVID hospitalization course runs on the order of $10,000 to more than $100k. This gives the vaccine an fair/arbitrage market value (if you had to pay for it instead of getting it for free) for a 40-49yo of $10000/282 = $35 or more. (This estimate does not include lost hours for being sick at home or paying for long-hauler treatments which would increase the fair value.)

chenda
Posts: 1754
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: COVID topic vol 2

Post by chenda »

Ego wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:24 am
Yes, this is what happens when the people welcome without question the narrative being intubated down the throat of society.
They can't help but to regurgitate it.
What narrative ?

Locked